Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

MerlinSouthDub · 26-04-2021 11:29AM

seamus wrote: »

Yeah, I wouldn't expect under-35s to be jabbed until well into July. I'm (barely) under 40 and I'm hoping but not expecting a jab before the end of June.

If the 82% of adult population target by end of June still applies (and I think it does), then everyone 30+ would get a dose by end of June. Good chart here:

https://twitter.com/RachelLavin/status/1383741192085467141/photo/1

26-04-2021 11:44AM

Russman wrote: »

If those rates are correct & are similar to AZ (not doubting you), then its hard to imagine there not being some restriction. Would AZ have any legal recourse if the rates were the same and no restriction placed on J&J ?

Your last sentence could be quite important for context also, a degree of vaccine choice is a huge mitigating factor IMO.

Good point, I'm not sure if there could be legal implications.

The head of the CDC committee in the US, when announcing that J&J could be resumed, said this:

The Johnson & Johnson vaccine “can be reinstituted and should be reinstituted. I acknowledge, as does everyone else, that these events are rare, but serious,” Jose Romero, chair of the committee, said. “It is our responsibility as clinicians to make sure that women understand this risk and, when possible, that they have an alternative at the same site that you’re administering the vaccine.”

The point about alternatives is really important and I hope it's not just glossed over.

Personally I think both AZ and J&J should be offered and if people are prepared to take them, knowing the small risks, that's fine. But get rid of this "back of the queue" nonsense. The waiver approach being taken in parts of Germany seems a sensible one.

CIARAN_BOYLE · 26-04-2021 11:44AM

1huge1 wrote: »

I'd assume early to mid July for people in their 20s, they want 80% of Adults to have their first dose by the end of June, presumably then the 20% is the 18-30yr old cohort?

This is based on 80% of adults having their first dose by the end of June which is the target.

I was guessing that everyone who wants a Vaccine will be offered one by June because at least 20% of adults will probably refuse vaccination.

SheepsClothing · 26-04-2021 11:45AM

There will likely be an ever growing cohort of people who decline the vaccine as we get into the lower ages, which you would have to think will accelerate the pace in which we go through the groups.

ACitizenErased · 26-04-2021 11:53AM

SheepsClothing wrote: »

There will likely be an ever growing cohort of people who decline the vaccine as we get into the lower ages, which you would have to think will accelerate the pace in which we go through the groups.

I’m in my 20s and don’t know a single person either in my college course or friend group who would reject it tbh

charlie14 · 26-04-2021 12:00PM

SheepsClothing wrote: »

There will likely be an ever growing cohort of people who decline the vaccine as we get into the lower ages, which you would have to think will accelerate the pace in which we go through the groups.

It would, but it would also lower the percentage vaccinated.
If Europe can get it`s act together on a Green Passport for travel based on meaningful level of vaccination, rather than the the mess we had last Summer on travel within Europe, that would be a major boost in encouraging the lower ages groups.
Unfortunately seeing the decisions by some countries on those UEFA matches I`m less confident now than I was that they will.

Christy42 · 26-04-2021 12:00PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I’m in my 20s and don’t know a single person either in my college course or friend group who would reject it tbh

I am the same but these things tend to be very self selecting and very biased. We pick friend groups who are similar to us. College courses are full of people who picked the same thing.

20% seems to be overegging the amount who will refuse but there will be decent few.

Rebelbrowser · 26-04-2021 12:03PM

Flying Fox wrote: »

Good point, I'm not sure if there could be legal implications.

I think AZ, or someone else with standing, would have to take a Judicial Review against NIAC. Would have to show that NIAC either erred procedurally in its decision making (no evidence) or that the decision of NIAC was irrational - which is a high bar. Courts reluctant understandably to supplant their non expert view for the view of an expert group like NIAC. So once NIAC have some reasonable basis for distinguishing between AZ and J&J they'd be fine.

PhilOssophy · 26-04-2021 12:09PM

All it will take is to get a bunch of "influencers" to post a video of them getting the vaccine and young people will line up I reckon. And by influencers, I mean sports people, musicians, actors, etc rather than wannabe people of importance!
But as the above poster said, I have come across grads in my work and every one of them is happy to get a vaccine. And my nieces/nephews who are that age say the same. Now maybe they are the educated ones - i.e. not gullible enough to be lead by conspiracy theorists, but I think the uptake will be much higher than people suggest.

Eod100 · 26-04-2021 12:12PM

Moderna waiving its IP rights. Good to see

https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/statement-moderna-intellectual-property-matters-during-covid-19/

Vicxas · 26-04-2021 12:14PM

Eod100 wrote: »

Moderna waiving its IP rights. Good to see

https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/statement-moderna-intellectual-property-matters-during-covid-19/

We'll be having Tesco value vaccinations in no time!

PhilOssophy · 26-04-2021 12:16PM

Vicxas wrote: »

We'll be having Tesco value vaccinations in no time!

Imagine the queue outside Lidl on a Thursday when they appear in the specials catalogue.....

Eod100 · 26-04-2021 12:18PM

Eod100 wrote: »

Moderna waiving its IP rights. Good to see

https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/statement-moderna-intellectual-property-matters-during-covid-19/

Actually seems to be from October 2020 so may be old news. Just saw it doing the rounds this morning.

Probes · 26-04-2021 12:18PM

Eod100 wrote: »

Moderna waiving its IP rights. Good to see

https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/statement-moderna-intellectual-property-matters-during-covid-19/

They did that a good while ago. Not much has happened so I wonder how specialised it is to make these vaccines, perhaps no one apart from themselves and Pfizer can do it anyway?

namloc1980 · 26-04-2021 12:19PM

odyssey06 wrote: »

A family member is in Group 7 of high risk, under 60.
Their GP surgery is not participating in the rollout because "AZ is not available".

Family member now seems to be in limbo as there doesn't seem to be any Plan B?
GP hasn't said anything along the lines of "We will register you for an MVC" and self registration on HSE is age based only.

Anyone else in same boat?

I am in Group 7 and getting vaccinated at my GP with Pfizer on Thursday. You need to insist on a better answer from the GP as to why they aren't looking after their Group 7 patients.

rm212 · 26-04-2021 12:25PM

It seems like Sanofi have entered an agreement with Moderna to manufacture doses of their COVID-19 vaccine on behalf of Moderna.

titan18 · 26-04-2021 12:25PM

namloc1980 wrote: »

I am in Group 7 and getting vaccinated at my GP with Pfizer on Thursday. You need to insist on a better answer from the GP as to why they aren't looking after their Group 7 patients.

Interesting, might have to contact my GP this week then. I was waiting until next week before doing it as I should be in group 7 but I think you're Cork based like myself so maybe they've moved on to our group now.

ACitizenErased · 26-04-2021 12:27PM

rm212 wrote: »

It seems like Sanofi have entered an agreement with Moderna to manufacture doses of their COVID-19 vaccine on behalf of Moderna.

CNBC reporting that it's from their New Jersey plant

Red Silurian · 26-04-2021 12:33PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

If the 82% of adult population target by end of June still applies (and I think it does), then everyone 30+ would get a dose by end of June. Good chart here:

https://twitter.com/RachelLavin/status/1383741192085467141/photo/1

So judging by that chart the plan is

1.5m first doses - we start on the over 55s
2.5m first doses - we start on the over 45s
3m first doses - we start on the over 35s
3.5m first doses - we start on the over 25s
4.2m first doses - we start on the Under 25s

Accurate?

eoinbn · 26-04-2021 12:36PM

Eod100 wrote: »

Actually seems to be from October 2020 so may be old news. Just saw it doing the rounds this morning.

WHO seem to be full of idiots.
The idea that sharing the IP would allow a huge uptick in production is daft. There is a shortage of raw materials and a shortage of specialist. Moderna are struggling to find people in Switzerland to ramp up production. Novavax, Curevac, SII are all having issues sourcing materials.
Having more manufactures will only make that situation worse.
As we have seen in the US with Emergent BioSolutions it is very easy for things to go wrong. If that had happen it a more corrupt country it could well have been swept under the carpet with potentially catastrophic consequences.

rm212 wrote: »

It seems like Sanofi have entered an agreement with Moderna to manufacture doses of their COVID-19 vaccine on behalf of Moderna.

Seems to be fill and finish. Similar to what they are doing for Pfizer/BioNtech from July.

Tyrone212 · 26-04-2021 12:41PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Expected rates of myocarditis are 10-20 per 100k per year. So if you take the lower end of that range Israel would expect about 250 cases in 3 months. Younger males also have a higher rate of myocarditis than the general population. So, 62 cases in Israel with a higher prevalence in younger males is not something to be overly concerned about

Concerning aspect is 56 out 62 cases came just after the second shot. Not many vaccinated in that age group either in comparison to others. Anyway it is being investigated so we'll find out soon enough.

If anything comes of it, along with the AstraZeneca news it will make some young people weary about getting their covid shot like myself and I'm very pro vaccine. In UK analysis the risks outweigh the rewards in under 30s from taking it, if it turns out to be same with Pfizer then I'm not sure what I'd do. I'd still get vaccinated, I'd just wait to see which is safest for my age first.

I'm very pro vaccine BTW I'm just specifically talking about my age group. A bit older and I'd have no concerns.

Russman · 26-04-2021 12:47PM

Actually, if J&J is approved today (even with some restrictions), does that potentially bring forward our target date of end of June for the 80% first dose ?
I may be mis-remembering, but am I correct in saying that our forecasts don't currently include anything from J&J ? So anything we end up able to use will be a "bonus" of sorts ?

WoollyRedHat · 26-04-2021 12:48PM

Anyone know what day the NIAC is due to make a decision about J & J on?

Bit cynical · 26-04-2021 12:50PM

Strazdas wrote: »

But we're gaining pace on them rapidly. In mid March, we were nearly three months behind them. At the moment it's eight weeks.....soon it will be four weeks etc.

This is very true. In term of pace by the end of May we should be vaccinating at roughly the same pace as the UK however at that point we'll still only be were they were at the end of March in terms of total vaccines administered and this is assuming that targets are met.

26-04-2021 12:51PM

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Concerning aspect is 56 out 62 cases came just after the second shot. Not many vaccinated in that age group either in comparison to others. Anyway it is being investigated so we'll find out soon enough.

If anything comes of it, along with the AstraZeneca news it will make some young people weary about getting their covid shot like myself and I'm very pro vaccine. In UK analysis the risks outweigh the rewards in under 30s from taking it, if it turns out to be same with Pfizer then I'm not sure what I'd do. I'd still get vaccinated, I'd just wait to see which is safest for my age first.

I'm very pro vaccine BTW I'm just specifically talking about my age group. A bit older and I'd have no concerns.

however, this number rose to 1-in-20,000 among those aged 16-30.

Lower than the expected rate

RavenBea17b · 26-04-2021 01:04PM

EU to sue AstraZeneca, announced just now. Late delivery etc

Corholio · 26-04-2021 01:07PM

RavenBea17b wrote: »

EU to sue AstraZeneca, announced just now. Late delivery etc

Donnelly smirking like a Cheshire cat that he leaked it ahead of time, that'll get him some more mentions, he can give himself a gold star now.

Turtwig · 26-04-2021 01:12PM

Tyrone212 wrote: »

In UK analysis the risks outweigh the rewards in under 30s from taking it

This isn't technically correct. The risks for under 30s only outweigh the rewards when the daily incidence rate of covid was 2 per 10,000 or lower. For incidences of 6 per 10,000 or higher the vaccine benefits significantly outweighed the risks.

Their assessment also did not take into account underlying health conditions that increase the risk of a poor outcome for individuals.

Tyrone212 · 26-04-2021 01:23PM

Turtwig wrote: »

This isn't technically correct. The risks for under 30s only outweigh the rewards when the daily incidence rate of covid was 2 per 10,000 or lower. For incidences of 6 per 10,000 or higher the vaccine significantly outweighed the risks.

They also did not take into account underlying health conditions that increase the risk of a poor outcome for individuals when making their assessment.

Yes you're correct however they had logged 4 cases per 1m when they released that and last Thursday they upped to it to 7.9m. So it remains to be seen I guess.

Turtwig · 26-04-2021 01:30PM

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Yes you're correct however they had logged 4 cases per 1m when they released that and last Thursday they upped to it to 7.9m. So it remains to be seen I guess.

Yeah I forgot that actually. Fair point. The identified incidence rate of CVST has increased to about in 1 in 125,000? (might even be a newer figure) It'll be interesting to see how that affects their updated analysis.

Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

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