Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

Lumen wrote: »

Does anyone know the relative risk of severe Covid for cohort 7?

I realise there's a variety of conditions, but on average.

Like, are they as vulnerable as a typical 70 y/o or what?

I realise I could DMOR with the various risk calculators but I'm feeling lazy. I assume NPHET have done the maths.

Judging by where they are on the list, they're as vulnerable as someone in the late 50s/early 60s

km79 wrote: »

I’d be hoping the 59-55 would be starting end of next week now assuming the J and J news is positive

I don't think we'll be ready to go with those quite as soon as that. I believe there are 600,000+ people in the 59-50 cohort, so they would need a lot of vaccines to launch into that.

km79 wrote: »

They are the next group though ?
They will surely start registering them year by year very soon

They are indeed but you would think they will only open the portal to them if there a 'lot' of vaccine doses available (i.e. they don't want people registering, only to be left waiting weeks for an appointment.....they want the vaccination to happen very quickly after the person registers).

km79 wrote: »

What about Pfizer ?

Yep, they’ll be our workhorse alright. I guess it depends on how quickly we can finish off first doses for groups 4 & 7 before the 50s get started. May will seem like the longest month ever waiting/watching for the cohorts to get going !

Strazdas wrote: »

They are indeed but you would think they will only open the portal to them if there a 'lot' of vaccine doses available (i.e. they don't want people registering, only to be left waiting weeks for an appointment.....they want the vaccination to happen very quickly after the person registers).

I think someone mentioned previously we could be expecting c400k doses delivered this coming week (based on that Belgian schedule). It’s a bit lower in the following weeks but 2/3 weeks away is probably doable. (Says he hopefully !)

Sconsey wrote: »

Maybe we do, I'm all for optimism, I'm simply pointing out that your statement that over 90% of the vulnerable have already been jabbed is wrong. They have not.



That looks like a link to the numbers that have been vaccinated. So if you take a look at group 7 for example (the medically vulnerable) you will see that there have been 639 people jabbed, out of a few hundred thousand (cant remember the exact figure). Now include all the over 60's that have not got a jab yet...the less than 10% remaining number you gave is just plain wrong.

Like I said, I'm all for the optimistic outlook, but it we have to keep the facts in line too.

I guess it depends on your definition of vulnerable - to me, the bulk of those who are "really" vulnerable are vaccinated or about to be in the next week or two.

I completely mis-read that link! My bad and yes my figures are indeed wrong!

PhilOssophy wrote: »

I guess it depends on your definition of vulnerable - to me, the bulk of those who are "really" vulnerable are vaccinated or about to be in the next week or two.

I completely mis-read that link! My bad and yes my figures are indeed wrong!

OK, to quickly sanity check the cohort 7 risk I ran the risk calculator for a 40 y/o with 35 BMI and asthma, and got relative risk of 1.5x death and 1.8x hospitalisation.

That's not what I would call "high risk", I'd call it "mildly elevated risk"

If anyone can be bothered to run it for a few more cohort 7 criteria that would be great. Thanksbye.

https://www.qcovid.org/Calculation

JPup wrote: »

Isn’t the median age of death here 82? Or very close to it. So by doing the over 80s, which we have, that’s already more than 50% of potential deaths eliminated. Plus large majority of over 70s now have one dose plus a significant minority of 60-69 and other high risk groups. So I’d say 75% reduction in likely deaths has now been achieved. 90% might be a bit high, but maybe not. And we’ll be there in the next couple of weeks for sure.

81.9% of the covid deaths in Ireland were aged 65 or older.

In the past week, only 5.2% or 134 have been in the over 65 cohort. This has been consistently been below 10% for 6 weeks or so. Many of the deaths currently being reported happened weeks or months ago. The mortality of the current wave has ended.

Absolute case numbers have not reduced over 6 weeks but the absolute number of tests has increased by 30% (walk-in centres) rendering the reporting of absolute numbers to be meaningless. 2.7% of tests return positive results, higher in some areas, lower in others.

Morbidity (sickness) rather than mortality (death) is, absent variants of concern, out particular issue. We should all learn from our conduct. I would not sit in groups in parks/beaches as seen in Stephen’s Green or Salthill yesterday. However, I am fed up with being restricted in other areas. Why should I not be permitted to go on a lengthy drive, take up residence in a holiday home etc? Also, the focus on outbound travel and the banning thereof is fatuous. The focus should be solely on inbound travel. I appreciate that outbound travel begets inbound travel. However, I should like to be able to go overseas to deal with business matters that might not be regarded as essential but which I consider important. Should I not be permitted to do this (to a country with lower covid incidence than here) with a promise for quarantine at home (or in extremis in a hotel) if I am content to do so. Why should I be subject to a penal provision?

Why should retail outlets, hairdressers etc which can limit numbers and exercise reasonable precautions be precluded from opening?

blackcard wrote: »

Reading Luke O'Neill's article in the Sindo today where he stated that the AstraZeneca vaccine had 66% efficacy against getting Covid-19 and 75% efficacy against serious disease. I am not blown away by those figures at all. I would prefer to go to the back of the queue for the Pfizer vaccine rather than take AstraZeneca

If we had gotten a vaccine that was 60% effective, that would have been good enough. We're spoilt by having vaccines with efficacy in the high 90%. Suddenly everyone's a vaccine expert and wants to cherry pick which one they get. Take what you're offered.

https://twitter.com/paulreiddublin/status/1386333101891129347

irishlad. wrote: »

https://twitter.com/paulreiddublin/status/1386333101891129347

Good week in fairness

Martin said they're expecting 250,000 next week though

Big ramp up to hit that figures

St.Spodo wrote: »

Has there been any mainstream media acknowledgement of the expected vaccine deliveries for Ireland next week? It seems that people following this closely are tuned in to the numbers based on the Belgian release, but I haven't seen e.g. RTÉ or Virgin Media's journalists mention it at all.

Interested to see if what's facilities that mobilised already will be able to quickly turnaround what is a one off bumper delivery week, by the Belgian numbers we wont see those sort of deliveries again til June.

This guy does savage stats work on Twitter. He's predicting 100% first dose coverage by the 7th of July.
https://twitter.com/rwallirl/status/1386353391715209218?s=20

ACitizenErased wrote: »

This guy does savage stats work on Twitter. He's predicting 100% first dose coverage by the 7th of July.
https://twitter.com/rwallirl/status/1386353391715209218?s=20

Is this with everyone accepting the vaccine? Presumably there will be a few who forgo the vaccine which bodes well for those of us who would like it.