Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

Russman

If we take the Belgian forecast from a couple of pages ago and pro rata it for us, plus 500k J&J due in May & June, that gets us there or thereabouts having enough supply for the 3.2m shots needed. It’ll be a close run thing imo. Hopefully the additional Pfizer manufacturing capacity as a result of the EU decision the other day will push us over the line.

Strazdas

Russman wrote: »

If we take the Belgian forecast for a couple of pages ago and pro rata it for us, plus 500k J&J due in May & June, that gets us there or thereabouts having enough supply for the 3.2m shots needed. It’ll be a close run thing imo. Hopefully the additional Pfizer manufacturing capacity as a result of the EU decision the other day will push us over the line.

There is speculation that we could even go ahead of schedule. By June, it's possible that deliveries could start coming faster than had been previously anticipated (we've already seen Pfizer accelerate several times).

ACitizenErased

Strazdas wrote: »

There is speculation that we could even go ahead of schedule. By June, it's possible that deliveries could start coming faster than had been previously anticipated (we've already seen Pfizer accelerate several times).

We're already seeing an AZ delivery expected from May arriving this week so I agree tbh

Russman

Strazdas wrote: »

There is speculation that we could even go ahead of schedule. By June, it's possible that deliveries could start coming faster than had been previously anticipated (we've already seen Pfizer accelerate several times).

True, and that journalist (can’t remember her name tbh) that had 4 scenarios graphed in the Business Post I think had all 4 scenarios beating the June target iirc.

Ficheall

ACitizenErased wrote: »

We're already seeing an AZ delivery expected from May arriving this week so I agree tbh

I thought AZ hugely reduced the promised amount for this week? (25->9 or something like that) Was that fixed?

ACitizenErased

Ficheall wrote: »

I thought AZ hugely reduced the promised amount for this week? (25->9 or something like that) Was that fixed?

There's an AZ delivery of 160k+ (open to correction might be slightly less) arriving this week that was originally from May

Thinkingaboutit

Has there been anything with the Russkie or Chinese options? My impression is that Johnson & Johnson are a bit careless, or least one of their big contractors in Baltimore, Maryland is, with whistleblowers dismissed, production halts due to quality issues, so perhaps these ones might allow the max vax goal to be met, if that's what's wanted.

Wolf359f

ACitizenErased wrote: »

There's an AZ delivery of 160k+ (open to correction might be slightly less) arriving this week that was originally from May

I don't think we've given any second doses of AZ. We have given 227k doses up to April 8th, so they will all need a second dose by the end of June. The 60-69 will not need a second dose till after 30th June, so we need ~600k AZ by June 30th (minus any 60-69 that would have been in group 1 & 2 and got an mRNA vaccine).
Hard to know with AZ if that's possible, but it should be. I mean they can't get any worse with deliveries..... can they?

secman

secman wrote: »

Heading to Citywest this evening, my wife who registered last Monday is getting vaccinated today.
I logged on 1 minute after midnight and registered myself, was just curious if portal was up to speed as my age group was open for registration from today. I believe the Citywest centre is running like clockwork.

Update, left house at 5:30 pm for a 6:30 pm appointment and arrived at Citywest by 5:55 pm, just never know with traffic out that way. Huge carpark was only about quarter full at most. Waited in the car until about 6:15 pm and headed towards the initial tented entrance. Wife told the personnel there that her appointment was for 6:30, no issues and carried on. All told it took her a good 70 min to immerge from the centre. It appeared to me that the last appointments were for 6:30 and they allowed for a final wrap at 8pm. I could see a team of cleaning personnel arriving around 7:15pm to begin preparation for tomorrow. All in all my wife was happy with how it went, just have to be patient with the conveyor type queuing until you reach your vaccine cubicle.

Charles Babbage

Strazdas wrote: »

There is speculation that we could even go ahead of schedule. By June, it's possible that deliveries could start coming faster than had been previously anticipated (we've already seen Pfizer accelerate several times).

One issue with June is whether we get Curevac in reasonable quantities, or not.

blackcard

Am I right in saying that someone who gets the Astra Zeneca jab is 6 times more likely to get covid-19 compared to someone who gets the Pfizer jab?

secman

blackcard wrote: »

Am I right in saying that someone who gets the Astra Zeneca jab is 6 times more likely to get covid-19 compared to someone who gets the Pfizer jab?

If their final % protection level is pretty close, 6 times doesn't seem to make sense !

Wolf359f

blackcard wrote: »

Am I right in saying that someone who gets the Astra Zeneca jab is 6 times more likely to get covid-19 compared to someone who gets the Pfizer jab?

Where the hell did you read that? Facebook?

blackcard

secman wrote: »

If their final % protection level is pretty close, 6 times doesn't seem to make sense !

One has 95% efficacy, the other has 70%?

Wolf359f

blackcard wrote: »

One has 95% efficacy, the other has 70%?

Efficacy can't be compared to each other.
AZ PCR tested people in their trials, so 70% efficacy (in trials) did not have Covid (symptomatic or asymptomatic)
Pfizer I believe was based on symptomatic covid and obviously would need to be confirmed with a PCR test. So someone asymptomatic wouldn't appear in the trial data.
Looking at data based around hospitalizations and deaths would be how to compare one vaccine to another as they are designed to prevent both, not necessarily prevent the disease.

blackcard

Wolf359f wrote: »

Efficacy can't be compared to each other.
AZ PCR tested people in their trials, so 70% efficacy (in trials) did not have Covid (symptomatic or asymptomatic)
Pfizer I believe was based on symptomatic covid and obviously would need to be confirmed with a PCR test. So someone asymptomatic wouldn't appear in the trial data.
Looking at data based around hospitalizations and deaths would be how to compare one vaccine to another as they are designed to prevent both, not necessarily prevent the disease.

Is there any data available then to make a comparison?

JPup

Both offer very similar (ie excellent) protection against serious illness and death. Saying one is multiples better than the other is incorrect.

If you go back a few pages here you’ll find a Scottish study showing AZ offering better protection in certain situations.

eoinbn

ACitizenErased wrote: »

There's an AZ delivery of 160k+ (open to correction might be slightly less) arriving this week that was originally from May

That was originally suppose to arrive last week and this week. 10 days ago AZ pushed it into May. Yesterday they announced it would be delivered this week. There was no acceleration.

Curevac figures are hard to get a read on. At one stage 50m in Q2 was been floated but that seems to have been reduced drastically to about 6m-10m. There is even talk about them nothing producing in large quantities until Q4.

US is the big unknown. They will likely have a lot of excess vaccines by June. Other counties need it more but that doesn't mean Europe won't benefit from it.

blackcard

Wolf359f wrote: »

Efficacy can't be compared to each other.
AZ PCR tested people in their trials, so 70% efficacy (in trials) did not have Covid (symptomatic or asymptomatic)
Pfizer I believe was based on symptomatic covid and obviously would need to be confirmed with a PCR test. So someone asymptomatic wouldn't appear in the trial data.
Looking at data based around hospitalizations and deaths would be how to compare one vaccine to another as they are designed to prevent both, not necessarily prevent the disease.

As a matter of interest if you were given the option of either vaccine, which would you choose? And please don't answer that you would be happy with either

ZoZoZo

I got the first Pfizer jab yesterday, by coincidence me ma had been given AZ the day before. I was slagging her because I was fine but she was moaning about headaches, fever etc. so she punched me in my vaccinated arm. That arm is sore now.
Conclusion:
A sore arm is a side-effect of the Pfizer vaccine.

This whole vaccination lark is gas craic.

Wolf359f

blackcard wrote: »

As a matter of interest if you were given the option of either vaccine, which would you choose? And please don't answer that you would be happy with either

If I had to choose, I'd choose Pfizer, just based on shorter interval time between doses and less risk of any clotting issues (albeit very very small)

Wolf359f

eoinbn wrote: »

That was originally suppose to arrive last week and this week. 10 days ago AZ pushed it into May. Yesterday they announced it would be delivered this week. There was no acceleration.

Curevac figures are hard to get a read on. At one stage 50m in Q2 was been floated but that seems to have been reduced drastically to about 6m-10m. There is even talk about them nothing producing in large quantities until Q4.

US is the big unknown. They will likely have a lot of excess vaccines by June. Other counties need it more but that doesn't mean Europe won't benefit from it.

AZ have a habit of under delivering and then 'suprising' us with a big delivery a few weeks later (which amounts to the same delivery just held back)

The US, by June should be well into vaccinating children, so I'd be cautious about any talk of excess vaccines. Also, I'm not sure how operation warp speed works, but can vaccine manufacturers then deliver to countries outside the US, or will the US be taking control of all vaccines and distributing the as they see fit? I'm sure the US government will like to make it political to undo or out-do China & Russia's influence.

Charles Babbage

Wolf359f wrote: »

AZ have a habit of under delivering and then 'suprising' us with a big delivery a few weeks later (which amounts to the same delivery just held back)

The US, by June should be well into vaccinating children, so I'd be cautious about any talk of excess vaccines. Also, I'm not sure how operation warp speed works, but can vaccine manufacturers then deliver to countries outside the US, or will the US be taking control of all vaccines and distributing the as they see fit? I'm sure the US government will like to make it political to undo or out-do China & Russia's influence.

However, it could make sense for Moderna (say) to send US production to Europe and for Europe to use less AZ and J&J which would be very suitable for international distribution.

Even freeing up raw material might allow Moderna produce more in Europe.

Wolf359f

Charles Babbage wrote: »

However, it could make sense for Moderna (say) to send US production to Europe and for Europe to use less AZ and J&J which would be very suitable for international distribution.

Even freeing up raw material might allow Moderna produce more in Europe.

Totally logical, but it means the US has to drop the Operation Warp Speed contract/policy, meaning they loose total control of vaccine manufacturing and distribution.

America is the only major producer not exporting vaccines (Canada and Mexico received a loan of vaccines, due to the operation warp speed laws, they couldn't gift or sell to Canada or Mexico)
I've feeling when America get what they need, it will either become political or sell to the highest bidder with vaccines.
As much as I distrust China and Russia, they went political over profit.

JTMan

The UK are planning to give boosters to the elderly this autumn.

Officials are close to finalising a deal to purchase tens of millions more doses of the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine in time for a third booster dose to be given to the elderly this autumn.

Government sources say they hope to roughly double the UK’s original order of 40 million jabs.

Gael23

Is Moderna fairly similar to Pfizer?

km79

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0425/1211942-coronavirus-ireland/

Portal open for 62 year olds now

Kivaro

ZoZoZo wrote: »

I got the first Pfizer jab yesterday, by coincidence me ma had been given AZ the day before. I was slagging her because I was fine but she was moaning about headaches, fever etc. so she punched me in my vaccinated arm. That arm is sore now.
Conclusion:
A sore arm is a side-effect of the Pfizer vaccine.

This whole vaccination lark is gas craic.

Brilliant.

Flange/Flanders

The GP practice I work in placed an order for 250 vaccines to be done this week, last week confirmed they would be delivered tomorrow........with an offer of 150 additional vaccines if we need them! Cue a lot of scrambling to get patients in at the designated times but 150 secured as per vaccine order.

Anecdotal evidence I know but hopefully a sign things are ramping up.

marno21

Gael23 wrote: »

Is Moderna fairly similar to Pfizer?

Yes. Moderna is the same type of vaccine as Pfizer (mRNA) and J&J and AstraZeneca are the same type of vaccine also (adenovirus viral vector)