Are we there yet? Your second Travel Megathread (threadbans in OP}

Donald Trump · 14-04-2021 01:37PM

Tazz T wrote: »

Wow! Someone tell NYPHET. Donny has just solved the Covid equation. He has declared a standardised R0 of 2 for imported cases.

Why settle for that handle of that original covid denier, Donald Trump? You need a new monicker. All hail the new Albert Einstein of Boards.

Well you see old chap, I used a simple number. We have already established that some have difficulty understanding simple logic. I didn't want to use a number like 1.1 or 1.2 because then I might have to explain how decimals work. So I used an example of "2" in the hope that people would be able to manage it.

Apologies if you think I was proposing an absolute constant for R0. I did not mean to confuse you.

Donald Trump · 14-04-2021 01:41PM

josip wrote: »

Let's try reality this time.

Covid already here and Zero Covid ain't going to happen

400 cases. (Using your R2) and 4 generations gives 3,200 cases

Again, I used an R0 of 2 to make the multiplications easier in order to try to explain that the more individual seeds you have to start with, the more cases you will end up with (all else equal)

I did, and I'll admit to being somewhat presumptive, assume that two-times multiplication would not cause the difficulty it apparently has

Red Silurian · 14-04-2021 01:43PM

a_squirrelman wrote: »

People coming in with negative tests.

The current system is a negative test 72 hours before boarding your plane

So in reality that gives you 72 hours to catch COVID unless you fully isolate yourself between the hotel and the airport and you're also relying on everybody at the airport and on the plane to have done the same... Right?

Tazz T · 14-04-2021 01:46PM

Donald Trump wrote: »

Well you see old chap, I used a simple number. We have already established that some have difficulty understanding simple logic. I didn't want to use a number like 1.1 or 1.2 because then I might have to explain how decimals work. So I used an example of "2" in the hope that people would be able to manage it.

Apologies if you think I was proposing an absolute constant for R0. I did not mean to confuse you.

So you're wrong then? You were making it up all along?

How disappointing.

josip · 14-04-2021 01:50PM

Donald Trump wrote: »

Again, I used an R0 of 2 to make the multiplications easier in order to try to explain that the more individual seeds you have to start with, the more cases you will end up with (all else equal)

I did, and I'll admit to being somewhat presumptive, assume that two-times multiplication would not cause the difficulty it apparently has

What's the most recent R0 number that we know of and how does that value work with your little game?

Donald Trump · 14-04-2021 01:52PM

Red Silurian wrote: »

The current system is a negative test 72 hours before boarding your plane

So in reality that gives you 72 hours to catch COVID unless you fully isolate yourself between the hotel and the airport and you're also relying on everybody at the airport and on the plane to have done the same... Right?

And you also have to take into account the window for which a test is accurate for an infected person.

https://nortonhealthcare.com/news/how-long-after-exposure-to-test-positive-for-covid/

It can take almost a week after exposure to COVID-19 to register a positive test result.
Evidence suggests that testing tends to be less accurate within three days of exposure, and the best time to get tested is five to seven days after you were exposed. Tests are even more accurate when patients are exhibiting symptoms.
COVID-19’s incubation period lasts up to 14 days. If you have the virus, it takes time to build up in your system. Testing too close to an exposure could result in samples that don’t contain enough of the virus’ genetic material to register as a positive. A COVID-19 test is limited in that it represents only a snapshot in time. A negative PCR test does not mean that an individual is free of infection, but rather only that, at that particular moment, the sample did not contain viral levels at a high enough concentration to be measured as a positive.

If you take a simple example (used for explanation purposes of the general concept only here kids) of someone who would be clear of Covid 12 days after infection. And assume that the test would be positive from days 2-10, (which is more than the recommended 3-7), and negative on days 0, 1, 11 then if you had 1000 people who had covid, and you tested all of them right now, then you would get negative results on 250 of them.

Again, to other posters, don't get your knickers in a twist over numbers. I am only explaining the concept to you as to why a negative PCR test 3 days ago does not mean that the person was not incubating the virus already at that time. Nor does it take into account the fact that they could have also picked it up in the intervening period even if they did not have it at that point in time

BobbyBolivia · 14-04-2021 01:55PM

Red Silurian wrote: »

The current system is a negative test 72 hours before boarding your plane

So in reality that gives you 72 hours to catch COVID unless you fully isolate yourself between the hotel and the airport and you're also relying on everybody at the airport and on the plane to have done the same... Right?

Red Silurian wrote: »

So your argument is that because the virus is already here and spreading we shouldn't put any efforts into stopping more people from coming in with it?

People are entering the country with negative tests and or vaccinated, when less than .5 percent of all cases have been linked to travel, with numerous existing restrictions seperate from MHQ - meaning anyone currently travelling is almost certainly doing so out of necessity.

We have an open border to another country which cannot be shut. We have aleady said we are not pursuing a zero covid strategy. The vaccines work on all known variants. Cases are an increasingly irrelevant statistic. Our vulnerable and elderly are almost all vaccinated. Why on earth would any intelligent, sane person be in favour of MHQ given all of the above?

The thing that no supporter of MHQ can answer are when it will end? Because if potential variants are the problem, as we have been told then it can never end. If keeping cases out is the problem, then it can never end. Ireland cannot survive economically if MHQ is a permanent thing. When does it end?

The second thing you hear most commonly out of this lot are 'Australia and New Zealand'. Because 2 islands on the far side of the world hours away from each other and anybody else, are clearly comparable to a country which shares a land border with another country. A land border which cannot be shut due to one of the most groundbreaking political agreements of all time. And then there is of course our membership of an institution where free travel for members between member states is part of the rules.

Again, it is important to remember too that this virus is relatively harmless to the majority and the people whom it is harmful to, are now almost completely protected from the negative affecfs of it. Who is MHQ protecting?

Donald Trump · 14-04-2021 02:02PM

josip wrote: »

What's the most recent R0 number that we know of and how does that value with your little game?

ok. I wll give the same example with a different R0. I will choose an R0 or 0.75. Perhaps using the R0 of 2 and having 2x the number seeds caused some issues.

Scenario1. 100 seeds. R0=0.75
1) 100
2) 75
3) 56
4) 42

Scenario 2. 500 seeds. R0=0.75
1) 500
2) 375
3) 281
4) 210

We see that we start with 5X seeds and end up with 5X cases

Let us take the same with R0 of 1.2
Scenario1. 100 seeds. R0 = 1.2
1) 100
2) 120
3) 144
4) 173

Scenario 2. 500 seeds. R0 = 1.2
1) 500
2) 600
3) 720
4) 864

We see that we start with 5X seeds and end up with 5X cases

Let us take the same with R0 of 0.5
Scenario1. 100 seeds. R0 = 0.5
1) 100
2) 50
3) 25
4) 13 (12.5)

Scenario 2. 500 seeds. R0 = 0.5
1) 500
2) 250
3) 125
4) 63 (62.5)

We see that we start with 5X seeds and end up with 5X cases

Do you get the pattern? The R0 does not change the relative relationship. Scenario 2 will end up with 5X Scenario 1. This is a simplistic example to explain the concept.

josip · 14-04-2021 02:18PM

Donald Trump wrote: »

ok. I wll give the same example with a different R0. I will choose an R0 or 0.75. Perhaps using the R0 of 2 and having 2x the number seeds caused some issues.

Scenario1. 100 seeds. R0=0.75
1) 100
2) 75
3) 56
4) 42

Scenario 2. 500 seeds. R0=0.75
1) 500
2) 375
3) 281
4) 210

We see that we start with 5X seeds and end up with 5X cases

Let us take the same with R0 of 1.2
Scenario1. 100 seeds. R0 = 1.2
1) 100
2) 120
3) 144
4) 173

Scenario 2. 500 seeds. R0 = 1.2
1) 500
2) 600
3) 720
4) 864

We see that we start with 5X seeds and end up with 5X cases

Let us take the same with R0 of 0.5
Scenario1. 100 seeds. R0 = 0.5
1) 100
2) 50
3) 25
4) 13 (12.5)

Scenario 2. 500 seeds. R0 = 0.5
1) 500
2) 250
3) 125
4) 63 (62.5)

We see that we start with 5X seeds and end up with 5X cases

Do you get the pattern? The R0 does not change the relative relationship. Scenario 2 will end up with 5X Scenario 1. This is a simplistic example to explain the concept.

What's the latest R0 Donnie?

Donald Trump · 14-04-2021 02:21PM

josip wrote: »

What's the latest R0 Donnie?

Man I just explained to you. The R0 does not affect the point I made.

Pick whatever R0 you want and I will work it out the example for you if you want me to and are unable to get your head around the general concept.

jellies · 14-04-2021 02:23PM

Donald Trump wrote: »

ok. I wll give the same example with a different R0. I will choose an R0 or 0.75. Perhaps using the R0 of 2 and having 2x the number seeds caused some issues.

Scenario1. 100 seeds. R0=0.75
1) 100
2) 75
3) 56
4) 42

Scenario 2. 500 seeds. R0=0.75
1) 500
2) 375
3) 281
4) 210

We see that we start with 5X seeds and end up with 5X cases

Let us take the same with R0 of 1.2
Scenario1. 100 seeds. R0 = 1.2
1) 100
2) 120
3) 144
4) 173

Scenario 2. 500 seeds. R0 = 1.2
1) 500
2) 600
3) 720
4) 864

We see that we start with 5X seeds and end up with 5X cases

Let us take the same with R0 of 0.5
Scenario1. 100 seeds. R0 = 0.5
1) 100
2) 50
3) 25
4) 13 (12.5)

Scenario 2. 500 seeds. R0 = 0.5
1) 500
2) 250
3) 125
4) 63 (62.5)

We see that we start with 5X seeds and end up with 5X cases

Do you get the pattern? The R0 does not change the relative relationship. Scenario 2 will end up with 5X Scenario 1. This is a simplistic example to explain the concept.

Oh dear (I like this game).

The starting point is the same for all scenarios. That is the real world, the one we live in, not the academic one in your head.

Donald Trump · 14-04-2021 02:27PM

jellies wrote: »

Oh dear (I like this game).

The starting point is the same for all scenarios. That is the real world, the one we live in, not the academic one in your head.

There is only so much I can help you with.

The starting point is a point in time. Do you start with 100 seeds of 500 seeds at that point in time. How you came to have 100 seeds is irrelevant to the subsequent logic. It's a Markovian process.

a_squirrelman · 14-04-2021 02:42PM

Red Silurian wrote: »

The current system is a negative test 72 hours before boarding your plane

So in reality that gives you 72 hours to catch COVID unless you fully isolate yourself between the hotel and the airport and you're also relying on everybody at the airport and on the plane to have done the same... Right?

Well yeah, and we see from the stats someone provided earlier that for one period there was 26 cases connected to travelling compared to 8000 cases rocking around the community

This thread is just going in circles anyway, lock up your people who are coughing all over each other leading to the 400 cases per day at the moment.

If I show up with a negative test and can isolate safety it shouldn't be bothering you.

saabsaab · 14-04-2021 03:48PM

BobbyBolivia wrote: »

People are entering the country with negative tests and or vaccinated, when less than .5 percent of all cases have been linked to travel, with numerous existing restrictions seperate from MHQ - meaning anyone currently travelling is almost certainly doing so out of necessity.

We have an open border to another country which cannot be shut. We have aleady said we are not pursuing a zero covid strategy. The vaccines work on all known variants. Cases are an increasingly irrelevant statistic. Our vulnerable and elderly are almost all vaccinated. Why on earth would any intelligent, sane person be in favour of MHQ given all of the above?

The thing that no supporter of MHQ can answer are when it will end? Because if potential variants are the problem, as we have been told then it can never end. If keeping cases out is the problem, then it can never end. Ireland cannot survive economically if MHQ is a permanent thing. When does it end?

The second thing you hear most commonly out of this lot are 'Australia and New Zealand'. Because 2 islands on the far side of the world hours away from each other and anybody else, are clearly comparable to a country which shares a land border with another country. A land border which cannot be shut due to one of the most groundbreaking political agreements of all time. And then there is of course our membership of an institution where free travel for members between member states is part of the rules.

Again, it is important to remember too that this virus is relatively harmless to the majority and the people whom it is harmful to, are now almost completely protected from the negative affecfs of it. Who is MHQ protecting?

Some still aren't! Any airline that boards a person who doesn't have a valid negative test and also hasn't have a place in MHQ should be hit with a fine say 1,000 and have to pay for the quarantine. That might sort it out fast!

zebastein · 14-04-2021 04:08PM

saabsaab wrote: »

Some still aren't! Any airline that boards a person who doesn't have a valid negative test and also hasn't have a place in MHQ should be hit with a fine say 1,000 and have to pay for the quarantine. That might sort it out fast!

Genuine question: is it the job of the airline to control the paperwork required to enter a country ?
My understanding is that the airline has control over the rules of international travel (security / valid passport) and can decide to allow someone to board based on that, but when it comes to the rules of a country it is up to the country itself to control the passenger through the immigration control.

Let's say the MHQ website stops taking bookings (as it is the case now), how can an airline crew decide if it is fair or not to let someone fly ? The country has authority to let people in and to decide under which condition, but people have to show up in the country to be able to discuss it.

Chuck Norris 2021 · 14-04-2021 04:08PM

There was discussion today with regard to an exemption of vaccinated people from MHQ.

The matter was discussed at today’s Cabinet, with Health Minister Stephen Donnelly understood to have a list with him of the countries that already exempt people who have been vaccinated from detention in hotels, such as the US.

So why is SD turning up with a list to justify relaxing a measure that he instigated? Am I missing something here?

The article continues.....

It is believed there is strong political support for it, but sources state there will be resistance to the move.

Acting Chief Medical Officer Ronan Glynn told the Oireachtas Committee on Health that he was not in favour of allowing fully vaccinated people to be exempt from quarantine, with some stating there will be a clash in relation to this at some point.

So our elected government now have to justify their actions to the celeb doctors? What is going on here?

They'll be some shouting when we're all still prisoners in our own country and the tourist hot spots are awash with vaccinated Americans and English. All cheer the angry mob!

14-04-2021 04:14PM

Donnelly confirming that is looking at vaccinated people needing to quarantine at home and not in a hotel.

And also that EU passport, once agreed, will mean that EU will not be subject to MHQ

Some sense. Inevitable

14-04-2021 04:19PM

Much better interview with Donnelly here on NT

Blut2 · 14-04-2021 04:20PM

The EU Green certificate thats going to come in in early June... About 6 weeks away...

Think of all the government time invested in planning, debating, and implementing this. Think of the tens of millions of your tax euros wasted on that process. And the tax euros wasted on defending the now daily legal challenges to the system. And the millions wasted on actually running the system.

And thats assuming the system even survives the 6 weeks - theres a good chance the courts strike it down on Friday of this week when the latest two cases are before them.

What an utter shambles. It should be enough to bring the government down.

theguzman · 14-04-2021 04:22PM

dan786 wrote: »

Friend of mine came back from India yesterday and was saying the cases are being under reported there and it is much worse than what's being reported (which is already very high numbers). Surprised that India is not in the UK red list or the Irish list whereas countries with much lower numbers are on the list.

Deleted User wrote: »

I agree. I don’t understand why India is completely off the radar. I speak to our Mumbai and Hyderabad offices nearly every day, and suddenly in the last couple of weeks an awful lot of people have got COVID. India is on fire right now

A large amount of the vaccines are being manufactured in the UK, a lot of British Asian Tories are of Indian Heritage like Priti Patel also. Maybe they don't want to rock the boat considering the Modhi is a volatile guy.

SusanC10 · 14-04-2021 04:27PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Donnelly confirming that is looking at vaccinated people needing to quarantine at home and not in a hotel.

*And also that EU passport, once agreed, will mean that EU will not be subject to MHQ*

Some sense. Inevitable

Well, that is some good news at least.

Which Channel is he on ?

14-04-2021 04:30PM

SusanC10 wrote: »

Well, that is some good news at least.

Which Channel is he on ?

He was on Newstalk. Also said there’s be some news on an approach to hard-case exemptions by the end of next week (family funerals etc)

Basically being watered down quite a lot

14-04-2021 04:32PM

theguzman wrote: »

A large amount of the vaccines are being manufactured in the UK, a lot of British Asian Tories are of Indian Heritage like Priti Patel also. Maybe they don't want to rock the boat considering the Modhi is a volatile guy.

Yeh, must be that. Shows the political power of India / Modhi in the UK given that there has never been a even an inkling of any consideration of its addition to the hotel list

Feria40 · 14-04-2021 04:33PM

SusanC10 wrote: »

Well, that is some good news at least.

Which Channel is he on ?

So bizarre, if we are signing up to the EU passport system then we are signing up to allowing people in with PCR test passed only and not vacinated.

I agree with the above but the whole thing is just so silly at this stage

Hellrazer · 14-04-2021 04:36PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Donnelly confirming that is looking at vaccinated people needing to quarantine at home and not in a hotel.

And also that EU passport, once agreed, will mean that EU will not be subject to MHQ

Some sense. Inevitable

So another Flip Flop from Fianna Fail.

They are just making themselves look more and more incompetent as the days go by.

scamalert · 14-04-2021 04:44PM

Feria40 wrote: »

So bizarre, if we are signing up to the EU passport system then we are signing up to allowing people in with PCR test passed only and not vacinated.

I agree with the above but the whole thing is just so silly at this stage

ridicilous part will be once come end of year people will be fully vac and still required to quarantine and present neg covid test if coming or leaving, plus other bs depending on countries :cool: rip holidays.

saabsaab · 14-04-2021 04:52PM

Its not forever. Good news today we are getting another (Pfizer) 500,000 extra vaccines in this next quarter also the call up for 65-69 next week.

2,000,000 + done by end of June.

Feria40 · 14-04-2021 04:56PM

We are the only EU country that has gone down this route and we will be under immense pressure from the US lobby groups plus the EU to drop this.

Short of deciding to be completely hard nosed into the Summer, the easiest way out of this will be the EU passport plans for the government.

Plenty will be unhappy that this will allow free travel with only a negative PCR test.

Within a month or 2 we will be able to travel freely within Ireland, including to airports. The EU passport will probably come into effect in June or July with some derogation for say 6 week implementation periods in individual countries

I honestly believe that we could be traveling reasonably freely by August with a negative PCR test on departure and arrival.

Costly from a family perspective but perhaps the EU will look at this.

Happy days all told

scamalert · 14-04-2021 05:08PM

Feria40 wrote: »

We are the only EU country that has gone down this route and we will be under immense pressure from the US lobby groups plus the EU to drop this.

Short of deciding to be completely hard nosed into the Summer, the easiest way out of this will be the EU passport plans for the government.

Plenty will be unhappy that this will allow free travel with only a negative PCR test.

Within a month or 2 we will be able to travel freely within Ireland, including to airports. The EU passport will probably come into effect in June or July with some derogation for say 6 week implementation periods in individual countries

I honestly believe that we could be traveling reasonably freely by August with a negative PCR test on departure and arrival.

Costly from a family perspective but perhaps the EU will look at this.

Happy days all told

few issues in there if gov opts to vaccinate people fully come 3 months between two dosages that July could turn into October for most, then Ive seen there's different test ranging from 50quid up to 200, does it mean one is just a self check and another is good to fly.
Also given Irish gov hard to imagine they would introduce green passes in any timely fashion.

way i see it if one is leaving country then its possible to get out, but probably safe to say forget any holidays for this year.

saabsaab · 14-04-2021 05:08PM

zebastein wrote: »

Genuine question: is it the job of the airline to control the paperwork required to enter a country ?
My understanding is that the airline has control over the rules of international travel (security / valid passport) and can decide to allow someone to board based on that, but when it comes to the rules of a country it is up to the country itself to control the passenger through the immigration control.

Let's say the MHQ website stops taking bookings (as it is the case now), how can an airline crew decide if it is fair or not to let someone fly ? The country has authority to let people in and to decide under which condition, but people have to show up in the country to be able to discuss it.

Simple enough they provide the proof before flight.

Are we there yet? Your second Travel Megathread (threadbans in OP}

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