Are we there yet? Your second Travel Megathread (threadbans in OP}

14-04-2021 08:27AM

faceman wrote: »

Don’t forget if you get the AS vaccine, there’s a wait of between 12-16 weeks between doses before you’re fully vaccinated.

Getting mine tomorrow in the UK. It’s 11 weeks there

My understanding is that it will also include a PCR testing option. Otherwise the EU will be full of British people gallivanting around, while EU citizens cannot

Chuck Norris 2021 · 14-04-2021 08:46AM

I have to wonder if they'll come a time that the anti travel brigade grow a brain and take the view that SDs time would be far better spent sorting out the vaccine roll out rather than fixating on MHQ?

From the Indo article;

“The Government hasn’t decided yet what the certificates will be used for here but it is clear that the European Commission and many other EU countries see them as a means to restart travel when health conditions allow,” he added.

Mr Byrne said hotel quarantining was “always a temporary measure” and insisted “none of the Covid-19 restrictions are going to be here forever”.

Can they challenge it's use for travel? They only seem to be interested in using for people attending GAA games!!

I've received an email from Ryanair. Our flights for July have changed by a few hours. I have the option of changing them. I'm assuming I can hold off till later.

Tenzor07 · 14-04-2021 09:16AM

Chuck Norris 2021 wrote: »

Mr Byrne said hotel quarantining was “always a temporary measure” and insisted “none of the Covid-19 restrictions are going to be here forever”.[/B]

Just like this Government told us that the USC tax was a temporary measure after the last financial crash....
In the UK they are already taking of full Lockdown again after a cluster of the S.A Variant....
Ireland will lockdown travel again in the Winter for any increase in Covid.

jellies · 14-04-2021 09:21AM

Everyone who lives or works in Wandsworth is being asked to take a Covid-19 PCR test after new cases of the South African variant were found in the borough.
https://t.co/g6nVOLJ0OH https://t.co/cLy7t90OxT

300,000 people live in Wandsworth. How long before.it is here if not already?

Golfman64 · 14-04-2021 09:23AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Getting mine tomorrow in the UK. It’s 11 weeks there

My understanding is that it will also include a PCR testing option. Otherwise the EU will be full of British people gallivanting around, while EU citizens cannot

Yep - Vaccination, recovery from Covid and a recent PCR test will all be treated the same i.e a green pass to travel and bypass quarantine measures. It can’t come soon enough. Yet again we are reliant on the EU to save this country from complete and utter incompetence.

Tenzor07 · 14-04-2021 09:28AM

Golfman64 wrote: »

Yep - Vaccination, recovery from Covid and a recent PCR test will all be treated the same i.e a green pass to travel and bypass quarantine measures. It can’t come soon enough. Yet again we are reliant on the EU to save this country from complete and utter incompetence.

In a massive bureaucracy that is the E.U one would assume that a standard E.U issued digital cert on an App would show all this info instead of having to go around with various pieces of paper each time you travel....will we get there in time to save Tourism this season? Probably not...

Multipass · 14-04-2021 09:30AM

jellies wrote: »

Everyone who lives or works in Wandsworth is being asked to take a Covid-19 PCR test after new cases of the South African variant were found in the borough.
https://t.co/g6nVOLJ0OH https://t.co/cLy7t90OxT

300,000 people live in Wandsworth. How long before.it is here if not already?

It’s been here for ages. I think the last I read they had found 16 cases

arccosh · 14-04-2021 09:36AM

jellies wrote: »

Everyone who lives or works in Wandsworth is being asked to take a Covid-19 PCR test after new cases of the South African variant were found in the borough.
https://t.co/g6nVOLJ0OH https://t.co/cLy7t90OxT

300,000 people live in Wandsworth. How long before.it is here if not already?

It's happened in numerous areas over the past 2 months.... my postcode was beside an affected one, they put the area in lockdown and had people going door to door doing tests until almost everyone had been tested...

jellies · 14-04-2021 09:41AM

arccosh wrote: »

It's happened in numerous areas over the past 2 months.... my postcode was beside an affected one, they put the area in lockdown and had people going door to door doing tests until almost everyone had been tested...

Can't help thinking we would be better off spending our time prepping for this scenario rather than all the effort and resources being put into a leaky quarantine system.

arccosh · 14-04-2021 09:48AM

jellies wrote: »

Can't help thinking we would be better off spending our time prepping for this scenario rather than all the effort and resources being put into a leaky quarantine system.

depends, most can be traced to a smaller area... it's not practical in the likes of Wandsworth

yoshimitsu · 14-04-2021 10:10AM

jellies wrote: »

Can't help thinking we would be better off spending our time prepping for this scenario rather than all the effort and resources being put into a leaky quarantine system.

Contact tracing and testing is how China opened back up in April... that's April 2020

14-04-2021 10:16AM

jellies wrote: »

Everyone who lives or works in Wandsworth is being asked to take a Covid-19 PCR test after new cases of the South African variant were found in the borough.
https://t.co/g6nVOLJ0OH https://t.co/cLy7t90OxT

300,000 people live in Wandsworth. How long before.it is here if not already?

Calm down. This is not the first time. The exact same thing happened, actually in Wandsworth, a couple of months ago and there was surge testing. Nothing ever came of it and Wandsworth continued to have one of the lowest rates in the country (20 per 100,000 over 7 days). I know as am on the electoral register there having had a flat in Putney until recently

And this is how it’s meant to work. It’s a positive thing that it happens

Red Silurian · 14-04-2021 10:22AM

yoshimitsu wrote: »

Contact tracing and testing is how China opened back up in April... that's April 2020

China also has 14 day MHQ though, you also need a negative PCR before departure to China, get another one at the airport and another 2 in the hotel!

Also if you're identified as a close contact you're effectively arrested and brought to a quarantine facility for 14 days minimum and nobody is chancing their arm with the rules

They've managed to keep covid-19 numbers low but at a cost that I don't think most would accept here in Ireland

Mr. Karate · 14-04-2021 10:47AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Having said all that, I feel a little sorry for Donnelly. Yes, he has brought this upon himself, he is not the most competent of politicians, and he has been disingenuous at best with some of what he has said. But he is still just a guy,,,,a husband and father. And he is going to get crucified here

I don't have an ounce of sympathy for him or any other worthless politician crying that they're being "abused" on social media. They've ruined peoples lives and businesses for the last year. With No real end in sight. All for a virus with a 99.96% survival rate. All these lockdowns, masks social distancing and we're no better off.

jellies · 14-04-2021 11:13AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Calm down. This is not the first time. The exact same thing happened, actually in Wandsworth, a couple of months ago and there was surge testing. Nothing ever came of it and Wandsworth continued to have one of the lowest rates in the country (20 per 100,000 over 7 days). I know as am on the electoral register there having had a flat in Putney until recently

And this is how it’s meant to work. It’s a positive thing that it happens

I agree that it is how it is meant to work. But, our MHQ system is not going to stop this variant (or similar) if it does decide to take a jaunt with a ro-ro driver across the Irish Sea.

yoshimitsu · 14-04-2021 11:17AM

Red Silurian wrote: »

China also has 14 day MHQ though, you also need a negative PCR before departure to China, get another one at the airport and another 2 in the hotel!

Also if you're identified as a close contact you're effectively arrested and brought to a quarantine facility for 14 days minimum and nobody is chancing their arm with the rules

They've managed to keep covid-19 numbers low but at a cost that I don't think most would accept here in Ireland

China, S. Kore and Japan all implemented contact tracing and massive testing from day given their experience with prior epidemics.

I posted before an example of a Chinese city of 5m inhabitants being tested (entirely) in a matter of a week.

I'm not sure about the treatment of infected people and close contacts (cant find anything reliable online) but obviously being "arrested and brought to a facility" seems indeed excessive for democratic standards.

On the MHQ however, China has double the land mass of europe and nearly 3x the population. If "securing" the boarder with MHQ has allowed them to return to 90% of pre-covid domestic travel (I've also posted abut this before) then I would say that it has been a successful policy. I think most people wouldnt mind a European MHQ vs other risky countries to allow intra-European travel to go back to 90% of pre-Covid levels.

Red Silurian · 14-04-2021 11:38AM

yoshimitsu wrote: »

China, S. Kore and Japan all implemented contact tracing and massive testing from day given their experience with prior epidemics.

I posted before an example of a Chinese city of 5m inhabitants being tested (entirely) in a matter of a week.

I'm not sure about the treatment of infected people and close contacts (cant find anything reliable online) but obviously being "arrested and brought to a facility" seems indeed excessive for democratic standards.

On the MHQ however, China has double the land mass of europe and nearly 3x the population. If "securing" the boarder with MHQ has allowed them to return to 90% of pre-covid domestic travel (I've also posted abut this before) then I would say that it has been a successful policy. I think most people wouldnt mind a European MHQ vs other risky countries to allow intra-European travel to go back to 90% of pre-Covid levels.

The problem with the EU is that neither the parliament nor the commission stepped up and imposed Union wide lockdowns or had any policy about trying to suppress the virus... The EU also has an open border with the UK, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein as well as a precarious one on the Island of Cyprus

Not difficult to overcome these problems though and once you do we could have an EU/UK/Shenghen/TRNC wide hotel quarantine system

yoshimitsu wrote: »

China, S. Kore and Japan all implemented contact tracing and massive testing from day given their experience with prior epidemics.

I posted before an example of a Chinese city of 5m inhabitants being tested (entirely) in a matter of a week.

I'm not sure about the treatment of infected people and close contacts (cant find anything reliable online) but obviously being "arrested and brought to a facility" seems indeed excessive for democratic standards.

On the MHQ however, China has double the land mass of europe and nearly 3x the population. If "securing" the boarder with MHQ has allowed them to return to 90% of pre-covid domestic travel (I've also posted abut this before) then I would say that it has been a successful policy. I think most people wouldnt mind a European MHQ vs other risky countries to allow intra-European travel to go back to 90% of pre-Covid levels.

Here's a headline for that...

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1209786.shtml

namloc1980 · 14-04-2021 11:42AM

Red Silurian wrote: »

The problem with the EU is that neither the parliament nor the commission stepped up and imposed Union wide lockdowns or had any policy about trying to suppress the virus... The EU also has an open border with the UK, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein as well as a precarious one on the Island of Cyprus

Not difficult to overcome these problems though and once you do we could have an EU/UK/Shenghen/TRNC wide hotel quarantine system

The EU has no such powers to do anything close to that. Those types of decisions are very much at member state level.

14-04-2021 11:47AM

Red Silurian wrote: »

The problem with the EU is that neither the parliament nor the commission stepped up and imposed Union wide lockdowns or had any policy about trying to suppress the virus... The EU also has an open border with the UK, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein as well as a precarious one on the Island of Cyprus

Not difficult to overcome these problems though and once you do we could have an EU/UK/Shenghen/TRNC wide hotel quarantine system

I have no doubt that this will be part of the debrief over coming years, and we will see a more organised approach next time.

An EEA wide border approach, with ZC within the bloc, would have been the ideal solution from day 1. Obviously too politically fraught and complex to arrange on the fly last year....the level of state co-operation would be unprecedented. But with a pandemic approach agreed by European countries over coming years , that can be dusted off and implemented in days, then we should have a much better outcome next time.

There would need to be support for EU countries with close ties to non-EU countries, and a porous land border (eg. Croatia/Serbia, Cyprus). Fly in that ointment would probably continue to be the UK - the others (Norway, Switz etc would get on board)

A bilateral arrangement could then be arranged with the US / Canada.

(But this is probably all wishful thinking.......)

Donald Trump · 14-04-2021 12:12PM

yoshimitsu wrote: »

Come on Donny, you know you've crossed the line there... half seeds imported = half the number of infections? Because the virus needs to be stopped at the border, it doesnt spread like wildfire once it's in right?

Are you still pushing bleach injections? Drinking Dettol maybe? :pac:

That's a fairly basic concept. I don't know how you can't understand it. Statistically speaking, and all else equal (ignoring the immunity from those who caught it once which is negligible for the sake of this argument) then if you halve the seeds, you'd basically halve the number of infections now.

Not sure how you can't understand that? It is fascinating when people can't grasp even simple concepts.

jellies · 14-04-2021 12:26PM

Donald Trump wrote: »

That's a fairly basic concept. I don't know how you can't understand it. Statistically speaking, and all else equal (ignoring the immunity from those who caught it once which is negligible for the sake of this argument) then if you halve the seeds, you'd basically halve the number of infections now.

Not sure how you can't understand that? It is fascinating when people can't grasp even simple concepts.

Oh dear. The imported "seeds" quickly become swamped by community transmission.

Not sure how you cannot understand such a simple concept.

yoshimitsu · 14-04-2021 12:31PM

Donald Trump wrote: »

That's a fairly basic concept. I don't know how you can't understand it. Statistically speaking, and all else equal (ignoring the immunity from those who caught it once which is negligible for the sake of this argument) then if you halve the seeds, you'd basically halve the number of infections now.

Not sure how you can't understand that? It is fascinating when people can't grasp even simple concepts.

yes of course, covfefe right back at you mr president

now please take your medication sir

Donald Trump · 14-04-2021 12:33PM

jellies wrote: »

Oh dear. The imported "seeds" quickly become swamped by community transmission.

Not sure how you cannot understand such a simple concept.

Oh dear.

Import 10 seeds. R0 of 2. 4 generations gives
A) 10

20
C) 40
D) 80

Import 20 seeds. R0 of 2. 4 generations gives
A) 20

40
C) 80
D) 160

Lets do it another way. A little gedanken experiment for you.

Start off with 10 seeds. Divide this group into two sets of 5.

Set A: {1-5}

Set B: {6-10}.
Fast forward to today. You wave your magic wand and go back in time and eliminate one set and one set only. Which one is the one that all of today "descended" from? Was it A or was it B? If all of today came from one set, then eliminating that in your time travel means it never got here. Which one do you choose?

Donald Trump · 14-04-2021 12:35PM

yoshimitsu wrote: »

yes of course, covfefe right back at you mr president

now please take your medication sir

I'm fascinated with this. People trying to talk about more "complicated" matters when the basics aren't understood.

It is a bit like someone trying to delve into string theory when they still haven't grasped subtraction.

dan786 · 14-04-2021 12:51PM

Friend of mine came back from India yesterday and was saying the cases are being under reported there and it is much worse than what's being reported (which is already very high numbers). Surprised that India is not in the UK red list or the Irish list whereas countries with much lower numbers are on the list.

14-04-2021 12:54PM

dan786 wrote: »

Friend of mine came back from India yesterday and was saying the cases are being under reported there and it is much worse than what's being reported (which is already very high numbers). Surprised that India is not in the UK red list or the Irish list whereas countries with much lower numbers are on the list.

I agree. I don’t understand why India is completely off the radar. I speak to our Mumbai and Hyderabad offices nearly every day, and suddenly in the last couple of weeks an awful lot of people have got COVID. India is on fire right now

josip · 14-04-2021 01:12PM

Donald Trump wrote: »

Oh dear.

Import 10 seeds. R0 of 2. 4 generations gives
A) 10
20
C) 40
D) 80

Import 20 seeds. R0 of 2. 4 generations gives
A) 20
40
C) 80
D) 160

Lets do it another way. A little gedanken experiment for you.

Start off with 10 seeds. Divide this group into two sets of 5.

Set A: {1-5}

Set B: {6-10}.
Fast forward to today. You wave your magic wand and go back in time and eliminate one set and one set only. Which one is the one that all of today "descended" from? Was it A or was it B? If all of today came from one set, then eliminating that in your time travel means it never got here. Which one do you choose?

Let's try reality this time.

Covid already here and Zero Covid ain't going to happen

400 cases. (Using your R2) and 4 generations gives 3,200 cases

Red Silurian · 14-04-2021 01:21PM

josip wrote: »

Let's try reality this time.

Covid already here and Zero Covid ain't going to happen

400 cases. (Using your R2) and 4 generations gives 3,200 cases

So your argument is that because the virus is already here and spreading we shouldn't put any efforts into stopping more people from coming in with it?

a_squirrelman · 14-04-2021 01:26PM

Red Silurian wrote: »

So your argument is that because the virus is already here and spreading we shouldn't put any efforts into stopping more people from coming in with it?

People coming in with negative tests.

Tazz T · 14-04-2021 01:29PM

Wow! Someone tell NYPHET. Donny has just solved the Covid equation. He has declared a standardised R0 of 2 for imported cases.

Why settle for that handle of that original covid denier, Donald Trump? You need a new monicker. All hail the new Albert Einstein of Boards.

Are we there yet? Your second Travel Megathread (threadbans in OP}

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