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Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

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Comments

  • #5312
    kippy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,347 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    Deeper Blue wrote: »
    There's zero chance we'd have come close to 50,000 deaths, regardless of restrictions or lack thereof

    Back in March we didn't have enough capacity to deal with the situation. Without restrictions the health system would have crumbled. Same again this winter.
    Lots more people would be dead without restrictions.
    Jesus it beggers belief that some people cannot see this.


  • #5313
    Probes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 466 ✭✭Probes


    I’m not sure where the research is, but there was a paper that looked into this and the ifr in the UK increased during times when the nhs was stressed. So it’s very plausible that the ifr would increase if there were no restrictions. I don’t think anyone would want what’s happening in Brazil to happen here.


  • #5314
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Probes wrote: »
    I’m not sure where the research is, but there was a paper that looked into this and the ifr in the UK increased during times when the nhs was stressed. So it’s very plausible that the ifr would increase if there were no restrictions. I don’t think anyone would want what’s happening in Brazil to happen here.
    IFR increases in stressed systems, look at Germany v Italy back last March. Numbers of deaths may increase but is that the same as an actual change in IFR?
    Always found this debate about IFR a bit pointless, apart from its statistical value, especially when a health system at risk is a far more worse scenario.


  • #5315
    Probes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 466 ✭✭Probes


    is_that_so wrote: »
    IFR increases in stressed systems, look at Germany v Italy back last March. Numbers of deaths may increase but is that the same as an actual change in IFR?
    Always found this debate about IFR a bit pointless, apart from its statistical value, especially when a health system at risk is a far more worse scenario.

    I don’t know if it changes the IFR. It increases the number of people who die from the disease.


  • #5316
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Probes wrote: »
    I don’t know if it changes the IFR. It increases the number of people who die from the disease.
    Rising cases can do that anyway but it's only that very large Christmas surge that's had an appreciable effect on deaths. Even with a herd immunity people may still die from it, just as some are at risk of dying from flu.


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  • #5317
    CruelSummer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,342 ✭✭✭CruelSummer


    kippy wrote: »
    Back in March we didn't have enough capacity to deal with the situation. Without restrictions the health system would have crumbled. Same again this winter.
    Lots more people would be dead without restrictions.
    Jesus it beggers belief that some people cannot see this.

    A year of severe lockdown on the Irish people and the first port of call re any strategy containing Covid is not a viable option. Lockdown should only be used as a tool to buy time, create a targeted approach. NPHET / Government decided a long time ago that this would be their strategy - despite more information available, mass / rapid tests, now vaccines. We’ve the longest lockdown in the western world - shameful with the youngest population in the EU.
    And now we’ve NPHET / Stephen Donnelly declaring that the fully vaccinated nurse in quarantine needs to stay there because there’s no ‘international travel cert yet’ - and basically no proof they won’t bring in a variant? This is outrageous and I hope the state lose this case.


  • #5318
    Probes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 466 ✭✭Probes


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Rising cases can do that anyway but it's only that very large Christmas surge that's had an appreciable effect on deaths. Even with a herd immunity people may still die from it, just as some are at risk of dying from flu.

    No, it increases the ratio of people that die from the disease.


  • #5319
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Probes wrote: »
    No, it increases the ratio of people that die from the disease.
    Ratio? How?


  • #5320
    kippy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,347 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    CruelSummer wrote: »
    A year of severe lockdown on the Irish people and the first port of call re any strategy containing Covid is not a viable option. Lockdown should only be used as a tool to buy time, create a targeted approach. NPHET / Government decided a long time ago that this would be their strategy - despite more information available, mass / rapid tests, now vaccines. We’ve the longest lockdown in the western world - shameful with the youngest population in the EU.
    And now we’ve NPHET / Stephen Donnelly declaring that the fully vaccinated nurse in quarantine needs to stay there because there’s no ‘international travel cert yet’ - and basically no proof they won’t bring in a variant? This is outrageous and I hope the state lose this case.

    The post I was responding to stated we wouldn't have any more deaths now whether we introduced restrictions or not.
    Do you agree with that assertion because there are a cohort of people who firmly believe the country would be completely sound if we didnt introduce restrictions last march and continue to use restrictions when numbers of cases increased?


    Twist my post how you want but ANYONE with the standpoint that restrictions weren't needed to save peoples lives is an absolute idiot.

    The way out of this is vaccinations - no doubt.


  • #5321
    dodzy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,304 ✭✭✭✭dodzy


    Just watching the tv here. 14 deaths reported yesterday.... from April, March, Feb & Jan. Apologies as I’m sure it’s been asked before but how is this? Did they “forget” those other deaths until this week?


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  • #5322
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    dodzy wrote: »
    Just watching the tv here. 14 deaths reported yesterday.... from April, March, Feb & Jan. Apologies as I’m sure it’s been asked before but how is this? Did they “forget” those other deaths until this week?
    The law allows people up to 3 months to report. That law should be changed.


  • #5323
    Probes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 466 ✭✭Probes


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Ratio? How?

    I feel like I'm having to go backwards and forwards on what was a pretty simple point. More people die of the disease when capacity in health care is strained. i.e. the ratio of people with infections vs deaths from the infection changes.


  • #5324
    dodzy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,304 ✭✭✭✭dodzy


    is_that_so wrote: »
    The law allows people up to 3 months to report. That law should be changed.
    The mind boggles. Thanks for the clarification.


  • #5325
    robbiezero
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,857 ✭✭✭robbiezero


    gozunda wrote: »
    Ballcocks. The wording is "older or vulnerable". And a parent "living alone" does not exclude the other two criteria.

    Now I don't know about anyone else but I've yet to meet anyones parents (as we were discussing) who are younger than them. (I'm sure there's some somewhere maybe). And some may be both ie vulnerable and older, or indeed all three - ie vulnerable, older and living alone. Or they just may be older!

    The above wording is detailed relating to essential travel but is also explained for those that live here - as giving care to a vulnerable person or attending to other vital family matters

    To paraphrase yet more evidence that those with 'de anti gubermint / anti restrictions nonsense will do the damnest to fudge the actual facts or misinterpret them to suit themselves

    So basically that boils down to a large amount of people that cannot visit their parents under those restrictions no matter what way you try to shill it.


  • #5326
    daydorunrun
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 784 ✭✭✭daydorunrun


    dodzy wrote: »
    The mind boggles. Thanks for the clarification.

    Say it three times in the mirror and he’ll appear in this thread to tell you what your opinion is;)

    “You tried your best and you failed miserably. The lesson is, never try.” Homer.



  • #5327
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,595 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    dodzy wrote: »
    The mind boggles. Thanks for the clarification.

    To be specific

    If someone dies in a hospital or a care home obviously of a notifiable disease (such as covid) it generally gets notified within a week.

    If someone dies in a hospital or care home and an autopsy is required to identify cause of death it can take over a month for the death to be notified.

    If someone dies in the community (ie not in hospital) the family have 3 months to file a death cert and their death won't be notified until it is filed.


  • #5328
    CruelSummer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,342 ✭✭✭CruelSummer


    kippy wrote: »
    The post I was responding to stated we wouldn't have any more deaths now whether we introduced restrictions or not.
    Do you agree with that assertion because there are a cohort of people who firmly believe the country would be completely sound if we didnt introduce restrictions last march and continue to use restrictions when numbers of cases increased?


    Twist my post how you want but ANYONE with the standpoint that restrictions weren't needed to save peoples lives is an absolute idiot.

    The way out of this is vaccinations - no doubt.

    Nobody is twisting your post, however I do see a concerted effort to twist mine into a ‘no restrictions’ type which I am not. Nor did I state I was in above post.
    If you actually read the post you would understand the method used to control Covid in Ireland has been way over the top in my view, which will have huge societal and economic consequences.


  • #5329
    M_Murphy57
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 725 ✭✭✭M_Murphy57


    Half way through April and we are still only vaccinating 100k people a week. When is the "ramping up" to 250k people a week that we are "holding firm" for kicking in ?


  • #5330
    kippy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,347 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    CruelSummer wrote: »
    Nobody is twisting your post, however I do see a concerted effort to twist mine into a ‘no restrictions’ type which I am not. Nor did I state I was in above post.
    If you actually read the post you would understand the method used to control Covid in Ireland has been way over the top in my view, which will have huge societal and economic consequences.

    Read the post my initial reply was to. Saying that deaths would be the same now had we "done nothing".


    A lot of people have different views depending on their own circumstances.
    I believe too that things could have been handled much better at certain junctures and that some of the optics of what senior politicians did haven't helped.

    Covid restrictions will have huge societal and economic consequences everywhere - no matter the levels of restrictions as every where has had to implement restrictions.


  • #5331
    Pussyhands
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,237 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Really don't get the MHQ. They say it's variants but why did they not care about that months and months ago and we weren't vaccinating.

    Seems strange that NOW they want to quarantine people when the vulnerable and elderly are almost vaccinated.

    And what happens if a variant generates IN Ireland? Is that automatically back to level 5?


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  • #5332
    spakman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,287 ✭✭✭spakman


    Pussyhands wrote: »
    Really don't get the MHQ. They say it's variants but why did they not care about that months and months ago and we weren't vaccinating.

    Seems strange that NOW they want to quarantine people when the vulnerable and elderly are almost vaccinated.

    And what happens if a variant generates IN Ireland? Is that automatically back to level 5?

    Because the fear is a variant will be resistant to the vaccine, and we'll be back to square one (level 5, no vaccine) just when we thought we'd be finally able to reopen society


  • #5333
    Ger Roe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭Ger Roe


    dodzy wrote: »
    Just watching the tv here. 14 deaths reported yesterday.... from April, March, Feb & Jan. Apologies as I’m sure it’s been asked before but how is this? Did they “forget” those other deaths until this week?


    It has been asked... many, many..... many, times before.

    Family members register the deaths of their relatives. You have up to three months to do it, because in some circumstances it can take time to get the required details together - that's if you are in a mental state well enough to work through the process. Generally, for understandable reasons, people do not rush out to register the death, before the funeral arrangements are made and a period of coping with understandable grief has elapsed.

    The announced daily deaths, are not deaths that occurred that day - they are the ones that have now completed the registration process in the time that has passed since the person actually died. It may not be the most expedient process possible, but it wasn't an issue when we didn't have a pandemic to deal with.

    The fact that the registration process is currently being completed by post, because the civic registration offices are closed, may also be overly delaying the process.


  • #5334
    Sofa King Great
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 872 ✭✭✭Sofa King Great


    Ger Roe wrote: »
    It has been asked... many, many..... many, times before.

    Family members register the deaths of their relatives. You have up to three months to do it, because in some circumstances it can take time to get the required details together - that's if you are in a mental state well enough to work through the process. Generally, for understandable reasons, people do not rush out to register the death, before the funeral arrangements are made and a period of coping with understandable grief has elapsed.

    The announced daily deaths, are not deaths that occurred that day - they are the ones that have now completed the registration process in the time that has passed since the person actually died. It may not be the most expedient process possible, but it wasn't an issue when we didn't have a pandemic to deal with.

    The fact that the registration process is currently being completed by post, because the civic registration offices are closed, may also be overly delaying the process.

    While I have every sympathy for people who have lost loved ones, there should be a requirement that a death from a highly contagious disease during a pandemic is notified at the earliest opportunity.

    The death rate indicates the impact of the disease on society and contributes to policy decision making etc. It also would allow research to take place on impact of the different variants etc


  • #5335
    Ger Roe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭Ger Roe


    is_that_so wrote: »
    The law allows people up to 3 months to report. That law should be changed.

    Yeah... we should shake people out of their grief to get on with the job, so that boardsies can argue over more accurate figures.


  • #5336
    CruelSummer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,342 ✭✭✭CruelSummer


    kippy wrote: »
    Read the post my initial reply was to. Saying that deaths would be the same now had we "done nothing".


    A lot of people have different views depending on their own circumstances.
    I believe too that things could have been handled much better at certain junctures and that some of the optics of what senior politicians did haven't helped.

    Covid restrictions will have huge societal and economic consequences everywhere - no matter the levels of restrictions as every where has had to implement restrictions.

    But you’re equating us with other western countries there, when in fact we’re a huge outlier. US is reopening, EU countries haven’t had as long of lockdowns or closures as we’ve had - the longest in the Western World. EU countries will also get much more money from the Covid bailout fund, which we will not thanks to our Leprechaun economic figures. Couple this with the Biden corporate tax policy threat and you’ve no economy left to support any restrictions whatsoever.
    Who will continue to bailout all of the closed businesses, those without work? How will we fund the upcoming non Covid health crisis? How will the tourism sector recover if we’re not even discussing vaccinated tourists coming in? Eamon Ryan promoting low cost flights being a thing of the past & for us all to get out our bicycles like good little boys and girls. Take a look at the flight radar - the US is back to normal and then some.


  • #5337
    TheDoctor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,980 ✭✭✭TheDoctor


    Hospital numbers at 8pm Saturday

    Total 211 (up from 200 previous night)
    ICU 48 (down from 51 previous night - 1 death)

    Lowest number of people in ICU in 2021.
    Previous lowest 50 - 1 January

    Last Saturday
    Total 237
    ICU 61


  • #5338
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,725 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    CruelSummer wrote: »
    But you’re equating us with other western countries there, when in fact we’re a huge outlier. US is reopening, EU countries haven’t had as long of lockdowns or closures as we’ve had - the longest in the Western World. EU countries will also get much more money from the Covid bailout fund, which we will not thanks to our Leprechaun economic figures. Couple this with the Biden corporate tax policy threat and you’ve no economy left to support any restrictions whatsoever.
    Who will continue to bailout all of the closed businesses, those without work? How will we fund the upcoming non Covid health crisis? How will the tourism sector recover if we’re not even discussing vaccinated tourists coming in? Eamon Ryan promoting low cost flights being a thing of the past & for us all to get out our bicycles like good little boys and girls. Take a look at the flight radar - the US is back to normal and then some.

    The greatest illusion Irish media and RTE have created is that Ireland is just like the rest of the world since May 2020 regarding suppression measures

    Nothing is further from reality


  • #5339
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,725 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    TheDoctor wrote: »
    Hospital numbers at 8pm Saturday

    Total 211 (up from 200 previous night)
    ICU 48 (down from 51 previous night - 1 death)

    Lowest number of people in ICU in 2021.
    Previous lowest 50 - 1 January

    Last Saturday
    Total 237
    ICU 61

    Realistically the discharges tomorrow morning will leave us below 200 in hospital


  • #5340
    Ger Roe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭Ger Roe


    Sofa King Great wrote: »
    While I have every sympathy for people who have lost loved ones, there should be a requirement that a death from a highly contagious disease during a pandemic is notified at the earliest opportunity.

    The death rate indicates the impact of the disease on society and contributes to policy decision making etc. It also would allow research to take place on impact of the different variants etc

    Possibly. I don't know why they can't get preliminarly details from the doctor's declaration - that is what the death cert is ultimately based on when the registration process is complete. Again, taking the data at that early source may also have reporting and accuracy issues, it might give a quicker indication of trends, but ultimately the issued death cert is the legal declaration.

    For instance, a death I know of recently had an on call doctor declare it at the deceased's home. There was no cause of death on the note, because the drop in doc has no knowledge of previous medical history or condition - he just confirmed death.

    The certification of cause and specification of witnesses etc requires further legwork, by family members. Apart from pressuring grieving families to work faster, I don't see how you could get totally accurate details any other way.


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  • #5341
    Pussyhands
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,237 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    spakman wrote: »
    Because the fear is a variant will be resistant to the vaccine, and we'll be back to square one (level 5, no vaccine) just when we thought we'd be finally able to reopen society

    But the variants existed months and months ago...so if they were resistant to the vaccine they'd already be in the country.

    And variants can be created anywhere, so shouldn't every country be on the list then? A variant can be created in Ireland.


This discussion has been closed.
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