COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

ddarcy · 10-04-2021 02:55PM

nibtrix wrote: »

“severe asthma (continuous or repeated use of systemic corticosteroids)” is cohort 7, so unless you have another condition that puts you in cohort 4 you may be waiting a while for them to get back to you.

It’s a bit of a lottery with GPs. Depending on how many patients they have in cohorts 1-6, they may be given enough doses to start cohorts 7+. Or else they go to waste.

Strazdas · 10-04-2021 02:56PM

ddarcy wrote: »

The UK has been running trials with this. They are still ongoing, but with the rolling review there may be enough evidence to do so. Also Astra is 69-76% effective after one dose (on par with Johnson and Johnson) and 76% after 2. So really no reason to get the second dose. Their BS 90% number which was shown to not be replicable in more rigorous clinical trials is the whole basis for two doses in Europe. Really the EMA has some explaining to do.

Is receiving a single dose AZ pretty much the same thing as the single dose J & J?

Godot. · 10-04-2021 03:15PM

The AZ deliveries for next week aren't going to make a big dent anyway. So we get 12,500 instead of 25,000 and we get the other 12,500 soon anyway? Nothing to get too annoyed over.
Pfizer are gonna be the big work horse, so I'm more interested in their figures.

ddarcy · 10-04-2021 03:19PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Is receiving a single dose AZ pretty much the same thing as the single dose J & J?

They are both the same types of vaccines. From the submissions I’ve read I’d say there is no need for a second dose (but that’s my personal opinion). Pfizer and moderna pulled off a blinder with the 90% efficacy so AstraZenica had to do some marketing to try and up the percent. Any vaccine with 60% up until the new mRNA vaccines came were considered gold standard. That is why Oxford/AstraZenica were so thrilled with the initial results.

trellheim · 10-04-2021 03:27PM

smurfjed wrote: »

From a country that has an electronic app. This is enough to grant access to malls, cinemas, large events and best of all, to avoid quarantine after foreign travel.

There's already Irish companies here that are offering and selling these as commercial apps to other countries. The tech is not an issue.

ddarcy · 10-04-2021 03:29PM

Godot. wrote: »

The AZ deliveries for next week aren't going to make a big dent anyway. So we get 12,500 instead of 25,000 and we get the other 12,500 soon anyway? Nothing to get too annoyed over.
Pfizer are gonna be the big work horse, so I'm more interested in their figures.

Pfizer is doing Bioequivalency tests from their Michigan plant right now. If successful, all US doses will come from there. They hope to be getting that going up to the levels the Belgian plant currently produces in a few weeks time. This means they will no longer need what is made in Belgium and that will free up for others to take. So there could be a massive ramp up with Pfizer by the end of the month (I’d go so far to say they will be able to outdeliver what Astra has promised in total in a very short timeframe).

Cluedo Monopoly · 10-04-2021 03:31PM

I am sure ye vaccine obsessed folks have seen this before but I thought I'd post it anyway.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/08/health/coronavirus-mrna-kariko.html

Kati Kariko Helped Shield the World From the Coronavirus.

Collaborating with devoted colleagues, Dr. Kariko laid the groundwork for the mRNA vaccines turning the tide of the pandemic.

SusanC10 · 10-04-2021 03:32PM

ddarcy wrote: »

Pfizer is doing Bioequivalency tests from their Michigan plant right now. If successful, all US doses will come from there. They hope to be getting that going up to the levels the Belgian plant currently produces in a few weeks time. This means they will no longer need what is made in Belgium and that will free up for others to take. So there could be a massive ramp up with Pfizer by the end of the month (I’d go so far to say they will be able to outdeliver what Astra has promised in total in a very short timeframe).

That would be very good news.

Strazdas · 10-04-2021 04:00PM

ddarcy wrote: »

Pfizer is doing Bioequivalency tests from their Michigan plant right now. If successful, all US doses will come from there. They hope to be getting that going up to the levels the Belgian plant currently produces in a few weeks time. This means they will no longer need what is made in Belgium and that will free up for others to take. So there could be a massive ramp up with Pfizer by the end of the month (I’d go so far to say they will be able to outdeliver what Astra has promised in total in a very short timeframe).

The way that the entire US programme has accelerated has been phenomenal. They are vaccinating at twice the daily rate per capita as the UK and have already given 180m doses.

ddarcy · 10-04-2021 04:07PM

Strazdas wrote: »

The way that the entire US programme has accelerated has been phenomenal. They are vaccinating at twice the daily rate per capita as the UK and have already given 180m doses.

They’ve raised expectations from 1 billion to 2.5 billion. So that’s ~20% of the worlds population by the end of this year. This will mostly be first works countries, but with novovax looking to get approval for early next month and curevax we should be in a really good place by June.

10-04-2021 04:22PM

hmmm wrote: »

France and Germany are going to offer mRNA second doses to some groups who have received the AstraZeneca vaccine:
https://www.ft.com/content/db295bb9-d1fe-47f8-bc0f-eb40dfaf545f

Interesting, I'm not sure there is much in the way of data on how effective or safe this approach is?

It's fine. Again things are woolly, medicine isn't binary. At the end of the day the vaccines are produced to create an immune response. Once the response they cause is similar enough then it's fine.

bodhrandude · 10-04-2021 04:40PM

nibtrix wrote: »

“severe asthma (continuous or repeated use of systemic corticosteroids)” is cohort 7, so unless you have another condition that puts you in cohort 4 you may be waiting a while for them to get back to you.

I'm currently being tested for Alpha-1 which would put me in 'extreme risk' category, I'm just awaiting results for this.

eoinbn · 10-04-2021 04:49PM

ddarcy wrote: »

Pfizer is doing Bioequivalency tests from their Michigan plant right now. If successful, all US doses will come from there. They hope to be getting that going up to the levels the Belgian plant currently produces in a few weeks time. This means they will no longer need what is made in Belgium and that will free up for others to take. So there could be a massive ramp up with Pfizer by the end of the month (I’d go so far to say they will be able to outdeliver what Astra has promised in total in a very short timeframe).

The Puurs plant doesn't export to the US. There will be a big ramp up in the second half of April but that will come from the BioNtech plant in Marburg. Once fully operational the plant will be able to produce 2.7m doses per day.

Maxface · 10-04-2021 05:08PM

I take the winter jab through work, I have no issue with a vaccine. I want and will take whatever but I have a reluctance to take the AZ jab, if that makes me a anti vaccine person then so be it. It looks like from here that there is many more that are happy to take any jab, much more than AZ will ever provide, surely then there is more of that than can be provided. For others like myself, that are happy to get a vaccine but not AZ, surely there should be an alternative? Not anti vaccine but with concerns?

ddarcy · 10-04-2021 05:19PM

eoinbn wrote: »

The Puurs plant doesn't export to the US. There will be a big ramp up in the second half of April but that will come from the BioNtech plant in Marburg. Once fully operational the plant will be able to produce 2.7m doses per day.

The initial rollout came from Belgium to the US. Pfizer is starting production in another Michigan plant in the US. It’s to be up and running in a few weeks (or so my shareholder info says). The US was still importing from Belgium as well (smaller amounts), but with EU assistance is stopping that full stop going forward. The US gave them grants for additional site in the US. The other big thing from this is that since it has FDA approval, the excess doses can now be shipped from the YS elsewhere.

Astra won’t be used in the US, but they have a ton of it already produced (20 million so far),once approved other countries can get it. If it’s not approved it will have to be destroyed and the aftermath won’t be pretty.

ixoy · 10-04-2021 05:53PM

Maxface wrote: »

For others like myself, that are happy to get a vaccine but not AZ, surely there should be an alternative?

It's a little tricky though - we've got limited quantities of all vaccines. There's certainly not enough Pfizer, Moderna, J&J quantities to cover the difference if a lot of people rejected AZ. And yeah, sure I'd have preference myself (and is anyone's AZ ?) but ..

Let's say then you, and others, are prepared to wait longer for your ideal vaccine - how long? Weeks? A month? More? The longer the gap is, depending on the number of people, the higher risk you give not just to yourself but to others who aren't vaccinated or can't be. The goal's to get a critical threshold vaccinated, to achieve a herd immunity, as soon as we can. It's not just so we can open up - although obviously that's a big element and important for a variety of reasons - but to be able to do it with a degree of reassurance.
It may not happen but I'd hate to see all these timelines delayed and vaccines unused because of a small potential risk.

10-04-2021 05:55PM

snowcat wrote: »

We are 3 months in from giving vaccines. What is going to pop up 6 9 months down the line. Anyway good to see the large scale human trial has found the early blood clot issues.

The issue occurs within days. Anyone who has had the vaccine more than a week ago has nothing to worry about

Russman · 10-04-2021 05:56PM

cameramonkey wrote: »

what age is he?

Sorry, just seeing this now, he’s 76

10-04-2021 06:19PM

Deleted User wrote: »

The issue occurs within days. Anyone who has had the vaccine more than a week ago has nothing to worry about

It's presenting between 4 to 20 days after vaccination actually.

hmmm · 10-04-2021 09:46PM

Thankfully the detail is not as scary as the headline, but it's interesting that people are seeing strong reactions to the J&J vaccine. It might limit where we can administer it.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/johnson-johnson-vaccine-georgia-shut-down-side-effects/

Earlier this week, 18 people in North Carolina reported side effects, while 11 people in Colorado reacted to the shot with symptoms ranging from dizziness, nausea and fainting.

"This is a really potent vaccine, and what we're seeing is some of that potency relating at a very rare side effect that we just have to be aware of," said Dr. David Agus, a CBS News medical contributor.

Micky 32 · 10-04-2021 11:34PM

Regarding Israel:

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1380987723511697410?s=21

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1380987726825144325?s=21

TomOnBoard · 11-04-2021 12:52AM

astrofool wrote: »

Unfortunately not, they were articles based on studies that I read a couple of months back, so I'd need to find the articles first, and as you can imagine there's a lot of COVID articles out there to sift through

OK. Yes, I get the difficulty! Thanks anyway..

Turtwig · 11-04-2021 01:13AM

Re the above twitter thread and study :

Is it suggesting that for the uk variant that a long gap between doses is unwise? Delaying the second dose risks greater escape?

*cough* UK 12 week strategy *cough*

We badly need a large study of the SA variant. I know the absolute numbers in Israel were small but those findings were a little concerning. I was hoping, perhaps naively, that we could get to stage where vaccination would eliminate the need for social restrictions. The authors seem of the belief that both vaccination and restrictions would be required to control it.

TomOnBoard · 11-04-2021 01:19AM

So, having asked the question, no-one was able to provide a scientific, peer-reviewed study that proves (or even suggests with evidence) that Covid "immunity" created by a vaccine is 'superior' to immunity gained from prior infection (whether symptomatic or not).

Taking the SCOPI study reported after last Summer, Covid antibodies were found in 3 times the number of people identified as Covid 'cases'. As of now, Worldometer shows Ireland as having had 240,643 cases. Using the SCOPI study (which would, if anything show a lower Antibody vs Cases than has been shown elsewhere (such as Stanford California study in 2020 and NYC study) it is safe to extrapolate that, in fact, some (3*240,643) ppl in Ireland, right now, has antibodies!

By extension, therefore, it is arguable that (3*240,643/4,994,000=) approx 14.5% of the population have some immunity from Covid already.

So, at a time of vaccine scarcity, WHY would we not try to establish WHO is in that 14.5% cohort, and therefore ALREADY having SOME immunity, so that we could target Vaccs to those who have NO immunity at all?

That's over 720,000 people who are likely to have SOME immunity, and therefore (4,994,000-720,000) who are NOT likely to have immunity. SURELY, we should really be targeting the 4,274,000 with no immunity in order to achieve the vaccination campaign objectives.

720,000 vaccines would vaccinate a helluva lot of carers, SNA assistants, teachers, Gardai, bus drivers, retail workers without impacting the age- based strategy, IF vaccines were moved from those with pre-existing immunity to those in front-line roles who have none, but whose age consigns them to front-line 'at-risk' jobs WITHOUT vaccination potenfially for MONTHS!

Wolf359f · 11-04-2021 01:23AM

Turtwig wrote: »

Re the above twitter thread and study :

Is it suggesting that for the uk variant that a long gap between doses is unwise? Delaying the second dose risks greater escape?

*cough* UK 12 week strategy *cough*

We badly need a large study of the SA variant. I know the absolute numbers in Israel were small but those findings were a little concerning. I was hoping, perhaps naively, that we could get to stage where vaccination would eliminate the need for social restrictions. The authors seem of the belief that both vaccination and restrictions would be required to control it.

The UK mainly vaccinated while in a lockdown, it will be telling tomorrow as they open up and we can see the impact the 12 week gap with Pfizer has.
It will be very easy for them to see with so many vaccinated with 1 dose of AZ and 1 dose of Pfizer, it's one to watch.

Turtwig · 11-04-2021 01:24AM

Taking your estimates on face value.

By the time you've figured out who does and doesn't have antibodies you'd likely have offered everyone a vaccine. If supply was going to be really scarce it could be something to consider. Right now, our labs are probably best dedicated to other resources. Antibody testing on such a mass scale would be an administrative nightmare.

stephenjmcd · 11-04-2021 01:26AM

TomOnBoard wrote: »

So, having asked the question, no-one was able to provide a scientific, peer-reviewed study that proves (or even suggests with evidence) that Covid "immunity" created by a vaccine is 'superior' to immunity gained from prior infection (whether symptomatic or not).

Taking the SCOPI study reported after last Summer, Covid antibodies were found in 3 times the number of people identified as Covid 'cases'. As of now, Worldometer shows Ireland as having had 240,643 cases. Using the SCOPI study (which would, if anything show a lower Antibody vs Cases than has been shown elsewhere (such as Stanford California study in 2020 and NYC study) it is safe to extrapolate that, in fact, some (3*240,643) ppl in Ireland, right now, has antibodies!

By extension, therefore, it is arguable that (3*240,643/4,994,000=) approx 14.5% of the population have some immunity from Covid already.

So, at a time of vaccine scarcity, WHY would we not try to establish WHO is in that 14.5% cohort, and therefore ALREADY having SOME immunity, so that we could target Vaccs to those who have NO immunity at all?

That's over 720,000 people who are likely to have SOME immunity, and therefore (4,994,000-720,000) who are NOT likely to have immunity. SURELY, we should really be targeting the 4,274,000 with no immunity in order to achieve the vaccination campaign objectives.

720,000 vaccines would vaccinate a helluva lot of carers, SNA assistants, teachers, Gardai, bus drivers, retail workers without impacting the age- based strategy, IF vaccines were moved from those with pre-existing immunity to those in front-line roles who have none, but whose age consigns them to front-line 'at-risk' jobs WITHOUT vaccination potenfially for MONTHS!

Initial study linked below on the impact of 1 dose of Pfizer on those previously infected

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01325-6

1 dose would probably do the job but overall yes vaccination is still recommended as it provides more protection than wild type infection & against variants.

It's a no brianer really, vacciantion gives increased protection.

stephenjmcd · 11-04-2021 01:28AM

Turtwig wrote: »

Taking your estimates on face value.

By the time you've figured out who does and doesn't have antibodies you'd likely have offered everyone a vaccine. If supply was going to be really scarce it could be something to consider. Right now, our labs are probably best dedicated to other resources. Antibody testing on such a mass scale would be an administrative nightmare.

Not to mention also that anti body testing that's available to the public isn't all that accurate as it's just a blood test.

T Cell response is what is likely to do alot of the long term protection

Wolf359f · 11-04-2021 01:30AM

TomOnBoard wrote: »

So, having asked the question, no-one was able to provide a scientific, peer-reviewed study that proves (or even suggests with evidence) that Covid "immunity" created by a vaccine is 'superior' to immunity gained from prior infection (whether symptomatic or not).

Taking the SCOPI study reported after last Summer, Covid antibodies were found in 3 times the number of people identified as Covid 'cases'. As of now, Worldometer shows Ireland as having had 240,643 cases. Using the SCOPI study (which would, if anything show a lower Antibody vs Cases than has been shown elsewhere (such as Stanford California study in 2020 and NYC study) it is safe to extrapolate that, in fact, some (3*240,643) ppl in Ireland, right now, has antibodies!

By extension, therefore, it is arguable that (3*240,643/4,994,000=) approx 14.5% of the population have some immunity from Covid already.

So, at a time of vaccine scarcity, WHY would we not try to establish WHO is in that 14.5% cohort, and therefore ALREADY having SOME immunity, so that we could target Vaccs to those who have NO immunity at all?

That's over 720,000 people who are likely to have SOME immunity, and therefore (4,994,000-720,000) who are NOT likely to have immunity. SURELY, we should really be targeting the 4,274,000 with no immunity in order to achieve the vaccination campaign objectives.

720,000 vaccines would vaccinate a helluva lot of carers, SNA assistants, teachers, Gardai, bus drivers, retail workers without impacting the age- based strategy, IF vaccines were moved from those with pre-existing immunity to those in front-line roles who have none, but whose age consigns them to front-line 'at-risk' jobs WITHOUT vaccination potenfially for MONTHS!

So your saying we have 3 times more infected with covid that we know. Fair assumption. So of the 4.9 mil in Ireland, there's potentially 480k unknown who don't need a vaccine as a top priority. That's 10% of the population. So if were jabbing 30k a day (getting close to it) We will need to be testing 33k a day for antibodies? 33k antibody tests should show 3k with antibodies and 30k who need a vaccine. So that could take potentially 24hrs while people wait for results.... why not just jab them and be done with them?

ACitizenErased · 11-04-2021 01:35AM

Can we note that the scopi “study” was a farce also by the way, hardly indicative

COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

Comments