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Racing Uncertainties
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pottokblue wrote: »Any ideas leffsem for GN 21? Think I'll go for a JP runner either anysecondnow, minellatimes, musicalslave, its been a time since AP and Dontpu**** won 2010
Alright pottokblue - ya I've been having a look alright in the last day or so...
Already on Burrows Saint at 20s..
Looking for 1 or two more maybe to throw at the board... Like you I'm tryna make a case for one of JPs - Think he has about 8 in it atm out of about 60 odd that are still in the reckoning, and of those 8, I think 7 are in the handicap proper.
Canelo is the one I'm liking myself... His last run at Doncaster was fairly okay when he came third over 3m 2f. That was the furthest the Alan King 8yr old has ever raced over. I think he's in with a shout... Open to improvement too I'd say... About 25/1 for it... Prob look at race again after the decs are out...
Hope the 7/2 - 4/1 fav Cloth Cap comes nowhere....
But that's me... J O'Neill a crook, and Hemmings has won enough :pac: Rather see JP or WP land it - only cos I've backed em; or are about to 
:D 0 -
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First 5 home in 6 Gowran
125/1
40/1
18/1
18/1
22/1
Beating the fav 5/6 into 6th
I’m not an expert on racing far from it but this seems ludicrous.
True enough - tis Irish racing for ya :rolleyes:
Still, twas a 3yr old maiden, but a sickener for punters, as neither Aidan's well backed fav, or Joey's seemingly decent priced (having drifted out to 7/2) inmate got involved.
Don't know if it was a 3 or 4 place race, but the first was 200/1 at one stage, and returned 125/1. The second opened up in the morning/night before, and was available at 150/1 - returned 40/1. The 4th was 50/1 early doors, and comes home at 18s :P
Seems like every big priced horse in that race that saw support got involved, with the short priced ones nowhere, and the ones what remained a consistent price, or didn't move much in betting were never in contention at all.
Had a look at the form after, and would no way have picked the 1st or second that were available at 200/1, and 150/1 early in the day. Not a chance :pac:
The punter has no chance in a race like that
If I was having a bet in it, I might have went for one of the O'brien's, but beyond that, it would be a stick a pin in it.
On the flip side though; it was a maiden, and apparently horses are entitled to come on for a run, or two Plus, a lot of them only had a couple of runs; and two, I think, had 3 runs (one of them was Joseph's), some had none; and many of them had long absences to contend with.
Irish racing a joke, but I wouldn't be using that particular race as a prime example of shenanigans/crookery; but then again, I don't have a clue if the (well bred) jollies were expected to go well by their connections. Flip side though; when the top two home were backed (to a degree) , it does seem a bit off alright..
I'd rather back a horse at Market Rasen, or Fontwell, or any Micky Mouse handicap really; than say, having to have a bet in a maiden, just cos big things are expected of some of them... It's nice when ya back one, and it wins at 11/8 on the snaff, or oppose the even money jolly, and get the third fav to oblige at 9/2. But, with so little form to go on; trying to get the winner in those sorta races; or even the 3yr old handicaps is bloody hard.
The amount of runners too is something else; esp at a flat meet with 3yr old handicaps, and maidens etc.. No lack of 'subscriptions' for the 7 races at Gowran yesterday... 16, 11, 15, 15, 16, 17, and 17 runners went to post in the respective 7 races. Probably best to stick to the all age handicaps, unless ya really fancy something, as so many unknowns in maidens/3yr old fillies' handicaps etc.,
And Gowran is back on today again 0 -
4.50 Chelmsford Musee D'orsay 8/1 EW
Looks open enough this race, and the top three in the betting, ranging between 11/4, and 4/1 all look beatable.
The selection is dropping down the weights; albeit from marks in the low 50s, down to 48. He does race a lot out the back, and often cos he's slow to break. The price is a bit shorter than what I'd like (is 16/1 in the probable SP, and that would be very fair) , as there's a lot to take on trust.
But; like I said, I don't think this race will take a lot of winning. The reasons I have to hope for a good run is: the 1st time equipment (eyeshield this time) - even if some reckon it's a negative; with low grade horses, I'd have it as a plus. This might help him break on terms. Another reason is that he's won over 7, which was in March of last year, although that was on Standard to Slow at Kempton. Reason no. 3 is Luke the sniper is on top for the first time. Probably should be win only on account I'm not too enthused about the price, but if he gets 'involved' here, which I'm hoping he will, then a place would yield a profit.
Good luck all
Could really do with a few winners soon to reverse this recent downturn. 0 -
5.20 Chelmsford Six Strings 6/1 win
Looks a very good price here - I reckon 7/2 is reasonable, 4s would be decent, and 9/2 or bigger is definitely value. One however that can be slow away, and will most likely be held up regardless. Also has a tendency to be a bit keen-going - not exactly solid race-winning credentials
Plus side though is he's dropping down the weights, and although he's never won on the course in his five attempts; he does at least seem to act on the surface. He came third lto over C & D, and that was a fifteen runner affair. With only seven going to post, he, at least won't have too many to pass.
More a value bet this, than one who has them aforementioned solid race-winning credentials, and hard to pass any of them over really; with Mike Murphy's joint fav Velvet Vista at an appealing enough 5/2, looking the most likely to win based on her recent C & D endeavours. Just the win on the selection for me though.0 -
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3.05 Taunton Johni Boxit 9/1 ew
Shorter than I thought he'd be - pretty sure he was a lot bigger an hour or so ago when I checked his price. There is a 3/1 NR in this, so maybe that's the reason. Selection has had 7 hurdles' outings, and not done much thus far. One of his best performances; I think, was when he came 4th two runs back at Warwick. That was on similar ground as what he faces today.
He ran keen out the back, which didn't help his chances much. He has ran well on good ground over 10fs at Bath before, on the flat. I do think that he doesn't stay very well, but can be capable of getting involved over 2m, if the 5lb claiming jockey sends him on from the front, or runs close to the pace. His first hurdles' rating was 94, and it's down to 82 now. Think he was 14/1 earlier this morning, but I missed the price at time. Snooze, ya lose I remembered I noticed him when I had a glance at this card yesterday, or the day before; but forgot about him :pac: 0 -
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Deleted User wrote: »3.05 Taunton Johni Boxit 9/1 ew
Shorter than I thought he'd be - pretty sure he was a lot bigger an hour or so ago when I checked his price. There is a 3/1 NR in this, so maybe that's the reason. Selection has had 7 hurdles' outings, and not done much thus far. One of his best performances; I think, was when he came 4th two runs back at Warwick. That was on similar ground as what he faces today.
He ran keen out the back, which didn't help his chances much. He has ran well on good ground over 10fs at Bath before, on the flat. I do think that he doesn't stay very well, but can be capable of getting involved over 2m, if the 5lb claiming jockey sends him on from the front, or runs close to the pace. His first hurdles' rating was 94, and it's down to 82 now. Think he was 14/1 earlier this morning, but I missed the price at time. Snooze, ya lose I remembered I noticed him when I had a glance at this card yesterday, or the day before; but forgot about him :pac:
A bit sickened about this one... Must've been well-backed early today.... Drifts out to 20/1 - was in about 4th and still travelling well until the saddle slipped about 3 out Pulled up.... Money comes, and then drifts, and that - as far as the punter is concerned - usually spells doom for any chance :mad: Ya have to wonder sometimes :rolleyes: 0 -
Deleted User wrote: »4.50 Chelmsford Musee D'orsay 8/1 EW
Looks open enough this race, and the top three in the betting, ranging between 11/4, and 4/1 all look beatable.
The selection is dropping down the weights; albeit from marks in the low 50s, down to 48. He does race a lot out the back, and often cos he's slow to break. The price is a bit shorter than what I'd like (is 16/1 in the probable SP, and that would be very fair) , as there's a lot to take on trust.
But; like I said, I don't think this race will take a lot of winning. The reasons I have to hope for a good run is: the 1st time equipment (eyeshield this time) - even if some reckon it's a negative; with low grade horses, I'd have it as a plus. This might help him break on terms. Another reason is that he's won over 7, which was in March of last year, although that was on Standard to Slow at Kempton. Reason no. 3 is Luke the sniper is on top for the first time. Probably should be win only on account I'm not too enthused about the price, but if he gets 'involved' here, which I'm hoping he will, then a place would yield a profit.
Good luck all Could really do with a few winners soon to reverse this recent downturn.
YIPPPEEEEEEEEE
AAYYYYYYYTTTTEEEEEEEEN 2 1
If I could thank my own post, I would, as I once seen a regular AH poster comment..... :pac: :pac:
4/1 WD at start, so about a 20p ruler... Still.... YIPPPEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!
Oh, and well done to ShamoBuc on the main thread here who posted a #hard to find 5/1 winner... Doesn't post much, or many selections; but his strike-rate is summit else
#was only 5/1, but I couldn't make a case for it neither
GWANNNNN DA SNIPEEEEEEEER!0 -
Deleted User wrote: »5.50 Chel Dyagilev 9/1 win
A bit of a punt this one. I feel the only chance this one has, is if Jack Mitchell can send him to the front, and dictate the race. If he's held up, or something else gets the lead; I fear he'll not be good enough. Is a C & D winner, and the price is right.
Dyagliev no good Jack Mitchell didn't read thread - he kept selection in 2nd for most of the race :pac: .... Until he faded into close to last.. 0 -
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Deleted User wrote: »Time for a few AP bets
Grand National Burrows Saint 18/1 e/w (1/5 1-5)
Cheltenham Gold Cup Santini 10/1 e/w (1/5 1-3)
2000 Guineas Battleground 8/1 e/w (1/5 1-3)
Derby High Definition 6/1 e/w (1/5 1-3)
The two flat races are in May and June, so I would say by then things should be okay travel wise for the Irish contingent.
GN in April, so that looks good too.
If Santini turns up, he's definitely good enough to be involved in the Gold Cup. Too good imo to be going to a National; at least yet.
Put that GN selection up on 06/01 I think..
Grand National Aintree 5.15 Sat 10 April
Canelo 40/1 ew (1/5 1-7 places) NRNB
Another selection for the 'Race that stops a Nation'
One of 7 for JP , and the one of his that carries the most weight (Anibale Fly) shoulders 10-12.. Some man James for getting a good weight for em
Selection Canelo is only eight yrs of age, has had 10 outings over the larger obstacles. His lto run is what caught my eye, and so will serve as my second dart in this (might have another few tilts, but not pushed if I don't) , going on that race, which was at Doncaster last month.
That was over 3m 2f, which is the furthest he's ever been. He came third, and travelled well for most of the race until he was carried to his right upon jumping the last, having looked like having a reasonable chance at close to the business end.
He was beaten just about 7 lengths that day. That day he was sent off favourite, and the race was on good ground. An extra mile to contend with Saturday, so, like a lot of others in this race; there's no way of knowing whether he'll stay the trip. Absent any evidence that suggests otherwise; I'm thinking he'll stay out the 4m. 2f. 74yds. trip.
A run for my money be good here, and if he's in contention come the elbow, then I can't really ask or expect much more than that. I would suggest he's unexposed, and as far as breeding goes; I wouldn't have a clue about Mahler's progenies, and whether or not they stay this far. Then again, the selection's sire Mahler is 'only' 17, so I guess (am probably wrong tho) that there's not a huge amount of data on his sons or daughters' staying ability beyond 4m. Can only hope that that will go without saying come approx 5.25 Saturday evening 0 -
Deleted User wrote: »6.50 Chelmsford Tilsworth Lukey 50/1 ew
A bit of a punt this one. Out of form, but is a C & D winner in a similar bottom grade race before. The very capable Marco Ghiani takes the seat for the first time with his useful 3lbs claim.
2nd last Jockey tried his best though; winding him up on t' apex of last bend, but, alas, nowhere near good enuf.... 0 -
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