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Racing Uncertainties

[Deleted User]

I am starting this with the intention of posting selections for Horse Racing.

Nowt is certain in this game. Hence the title.

One to start off with.

Wolverhampton 7.15 Zafaranah

Mrs Barclay's Mare had a return to form last week when 2nd at the course over the extended mile. The horse has won before at this time of year, and is twice a Course and Distance winner off ratings higher than what she's assessed at tonight.

Available to back at 15/2 and bigger, I give it an each way chance here. Drawn 9 of 11 aint ideal, but I had no say in the box allocation.

I wish myself the best of luck with my thread, and hope to provide many winners and big priced placers.

That's all for now.

Gluck

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[Deleted User]

FLOOPER wrote: »

First 5 home in 6 Gowran
125/1
40/1
18/1
18/1
22/1
Beating the fav 5/6 into 6th

I’m not an expert on racing far from it but this seems ludicrous.

True enough - tis Irish racing for ya :rolleyes:

Still, twas a 3yr old maiden, but a sickener for punters, as neither Aidan's well backed fav, or Joey's seemingly decent priced (having drifted out to 7/2) inmate got involved.

Don't know if it was a 3 or 4 place race, but the first was 200/1 at one stage, and returned 125/1. The second opened up in the morning/night before, and was available at 150/1 - returned 40/1. The 4th was 50/1 early doors, and comes home at 18s :P

Seems like every big priced horse in that race that saw support got involved, with the short priced ones nowhere, and the ones what remained a consistent price, or didn't move much in betting were never in contention at all.

Had a look at the form after, and would no way have picked the 1st or second that were available at 200/1, and 150/1 early in the day. Not a chance :pac:

The punter has no chance in a race like that

If I was having a bet in it, I might have went for one of the O'brien's, but beyond that, it would be a stick a pin in it.

On the flip side though; it was a maiden, and apparently horses are entitled to come on for a run, or two

Plus, a lot of them only had a couple of runs; and two, I think, had 3 runs (one of them was Joseph's), some had none; and many of them had long absences to contend with.

Irish racing a joke, but I wouldn't be using that particular race as a prime example of shenanigans/crookery; but then again, I don't have a clue if the (well bred) jollies were expected to go well by their connections. Flip side though; when the top two home were backed (to a degree) , it does seem a bit off alright..

I'd rather back a horse at Market Rasen, or Fontwell, or any Micky Mouse handicap really; than say, having to have a bet in a maiden, just cos big things are expected of some of them... It's nice when ya back one, and it wins at 11/8 on the snaff, or oppose the even money jolly, and get the third fav to oblige at 9/2. But, with so little form to go on; trying to get the winner in those sorta races; or even the 3yr old handicaps is bloody hard.

The amount of runners too is something else; esp at a flat meet with 3yr old handicaps, and maidens etc.. No lack of 'subscriptions' for the 7 races at Gowran yesterday... 16, 11, 15, 15, 16, 17, and 17 runners went to post in the respective 7 races. Probably best to stick to the all age handicaps, unless ya really fancy something, as so many unknowns in maidens/3yr old fillies' handicaps etc.,

And Gowran is back on today again

[Deleted User]

07/04

Running P & L -47.6pts

Invested 22pts

Returns:

3.50 The Big House (done ew @ 10/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 3pts
8.15 The Mousen Champ (done ew) places at 11/1 returning 3.2pts

Invested 22pts - returns 6.2pts

Loss for the day 15.8pts

Running invested total - 1,770 pts

Total P & L -63.4pts

FLOOPER

[Deleted User] wrote: »

1.30 Lingfield Recuerdame 20/1 EW

First 5 home in 6 Gowran
125/1
40/1
18/1
18/1
22/1
Beating the fav 5/6 into 6th

I’m not an expert on racing far from it but this seems ludicrous.

[Deleted User]

1.30 Lingfield Recuerdame 20/1 EW

[Deleted User]

2.00 Lingfield Poet's Eye 14/1 ew

Top two in the betting Lost Eden (11/4) , and the jolly Royal Mews (4/11) look to have this between them. I think Poet's Eye can be best of the rest.. She ran poor enough at Chelmsford over today's 10fs trip lto, but that was a Class 4, and she didn't have the smoothest of passages.. First of her two runs; which was over a mile at today's venue was okay in the context of today's race, and she was staying on at the end. Unlikely to win, as there are two serious animals running here, but 14/1 ew equates to 9/10 if coming placed.. Think she's only 11/10 to place, so happy to go ew here, with the, albeit very slim possibility of winning. She also gets a fillies' allowance, and the two at the top of the card have winners' penalties to shoulder, so she has 12lbs less to carry than the jollies.

[Deleted User]

pottokblue wrote: »

Any ideas leffsem for GN 21? Think I'll go for a JP runner either anysecondnow, minellatimes, musicalslave, its been a time since AP and Dontpu**** won 2010

Alright pottokblue - ya I've been having a look alright in the last day or so...

Already on Burrows Saint at 20s..

Looking for 1 or two more maybe to throw at the board... Like you I'm tryna make a case for one of JPs - Think he has about 8 in it atm out of about 60 odd that are still in the reckoning, and of those 8, I think 7 are in the handicap proper.

Canelo is the one I'm liking myself... His last run at Doncaster was fairly okay when he came third over 3m 2f. That was the furthest the Alan King 8yr old has ever raced over. I think he's in with a shout... Open to improvement too I'd say... About 25/1 for it... Prob look at race again after the decs are out...

Hope the 7/2 - 4/1 fav Cloth Cap comes nowhere....

But that's me... J O'Neill a crook, and Hemmings has won enough :pac: Rather see JP or WP land it - only cos I've backed em; or are about to

pottokblue

Any ideas leffsem for GN 21? Think I'll go for a JP runner either anysecondnow, minellatimes, musicalslave, its been a time since AP and Dontpu**** won 2010

[Deleted User]

4.50 Catt Lady Of Desire 22/1 ew , Krystal Maze 16/1 ew

Lady of Desire a bit of a punt, based on her first ever run as a 2yr old.

Krystal Maze would have a chance based on her second last run; where she ran keen, but was running on at the end of a 5f race, which was ran in a fast time. She's one of two Ollie Pears has in this race, as he also saddles the 4/1 2nd fav Blissful Song, who won at Southwell over 5 lto.. Seems a poor enough race, and I'm counting on her not being involved here.

[Deleted User]

2.50 Catterick Single 9/2 ew , Nataleena 16/1 ew

Both these have chances here, having form at the trip, grade and going that could see them get involved in this. I'm not liking the 6/4 fav Wise Eagle here, and a 3 place lay bet would be tempting. Am not on Betfair, but was looking at the exchange, and can't understand the price discrepancies - it seems Wise Eagle can be currently backed at 1.21 for a place, but the lay price is 1.6? Don't understand that at all.

[Deleted User]

1.45 Catterick Carlovian 11/1 ew

Has decent place possibilites. Is a course winner, and can race from the front, or off the pace. Probably won't win on form, but still could hold on - if going from the front - , or run on - if held up- , for a place. Is a good enough price for an ew play anyway here in this apprentice race, with his trainer M T Walford being among the winners recently.

[Deleted User]

A couple I hope might go well tomorrow. Prices aint great though.

7.45 Newcastle Highlight Reel 15/2 ew

8.15 The Mousen Champ 11/1 ew

Hard to make solid claims for either; and I wouldn't be surprised if they drifted, but I think they can get involved.

[Deleted User]

06/04

Running P & L -45.6pts

Invested 2pts

Returns - none

Invested 2pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 2pts

Running invested total - 1,748 pts

Total P & L -47.6pts

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

Last one for today...

8.30 Chelmsford

Something Lucky 8/1 win

Not getting any younger at nine, but he can go well in this Class 6 if he breaks well, and hopefully mow down the frontrunners late on. Has won off higher ratings than he's racing off tonight. Last win was less than a year ago, so not without a chance at a decent price.

Not good enough - came 4th

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

8.00 Chelmsford Bayston Hill 4/1 win

Multiple C & D winner. Always goes well at the course over this distance in Class 5s and 6s. Is in a Class 5 today. Poor run lto though in a Class 4 over today's trip, but hopefully that was an aberration. Should be more at home back in a Class 5 and expect him to run a good race tonight.

Gluck

Not to be - came 2nd

Was counting my money 1 1/2fs out, after the jockey kicked about 2 or so out, and it looked like he wasn't for catching. Fav was always travelling well out the back though, and he mowed selection down in shadow of post having come with a late run .. Ah well

[Deleted User]

Last one for today...

8.30 Chelmsford

Something Lucky 8/1 win

Not getting any younger at nine, but he can go well in this Class 6 if he breaks well, and hopefully mow down the frontrunners late on. Has won off higher ratings than he's racing off tonight. Last win was less than a year ago, so not without a chance at a decent price.

[Deleted User]

07/04

3.50 Catterick Donnelly's Rainbow 14/1 ew , The Big House 10/1 ew

Both have significant absences to overcome, but they both should like the ground, trip and course. Donnelly's Rainbow has ran well over C & D a couple of times without winning, and The Big House is a three times C & D winner.

An open race I think, and only 3 of the 9 have had a recent outing; with the other six all having absences of 100+ days to overcome. The 6/4 fav Alix James is one that has had a recent run, but I'm not too enthused about his chances, with his three wins (all over 7f) coming on the AW, good to soft, and soft going. The going is described as good to firm-good in places, and I hope it stays that way (even if it is April, and I saw what looked like hailstones at one o' the race meets today :P) . Rain rain stay away :pac:

Gluck

[Deleted User]

8.00 Chelmsford Bayston Hill 4/1 win

Multiple C & D winner. Always goes well at the course over this distance in Class 5s and 6s. Is in a Class 5 today. Poor run lto though in a Class 4 over today's trip, but hopefully that was an aberration. Should be more at home back in a Class 5 and expect him to run a good race tonight.

Gluck

[Deleted User]

05/04

Running P & L -45.2pts

Invested 13pts. 5.25 Clongowes nr done win. 12pts in play.

Returns:

2.45 Ballintara (done ew @ 20/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 5pts
2.05 Jon Ess (done ew) places at 28/1 at a fifth the odds returning 6.6pts

Invested 12pts - returns 11.6pts

Loss for the day 0.4pts

Running invested total - 1,746 pts

Total P & L -45.6pts

[Deleted User]

Fairyhouse

2.05 Jon Ess 16/1 ew

Third in this a couple of years ago.

5.00 Irish Grand National.

Discordantly 33/1 ew , Moyhenna 25/1 ew

My ew darts here. Discordantly is only 7, a course winner over hurdles, last run at Cheltenham was good. Appears ground versatile.

Moyhenna came third over a similar trip at Punchestown 2 runs back on soft. He was staying on over shorter on his latest race on better ground at Cheltenham. Appears to stay at least. Hugh Morgan gets the leg-up for the first time, and takes 5 off.

[Deleted User]

3.40 Wolves Siavash 16/1 ew

Another thread 'standing dish'. I think he's a light under a bushel job, and usually hides out the back. Only 7 go to post here, and he has been dropping down the weights significantly since his win at the course in November. That was over much shorter, and it's very interesting that he's tackled the extended 9 fs here quite a few times with no success, but tackles 1m 4f tomorrow. Could be a Massive Plunge (I hope

) on the Evans' inmate.

Gluck

[Deleted User]

5.25 Plumpton Clongowes 6/1 win

7th hurdles start tomorrow. Most of them were poor, apart from his last which was on good ground at the course. I think he'll appreciate ground conditions, and if he stays the extra half mile or so, he should go close. Not a great price, but not poor either. Might get another trainer off the cold list. That's if he goes to post, which aint too likely, considering he ran today.

[Deleted User]

05/04

2.45 Plumpton Ballintara 20/1 ew

Skelton has the best priced 4/6 fav Aheadfullofdreams, but is definitely worth opposing imo. Regardless, I'm going ew here, and the selection is having his third chase start. Hoping this one can get a long overdue winner for Diana Grissell, who hasn't trained a winner in three years. The ground, and the track, as well as the trip should all be fine. In his hurdles' career he has often chased the leaders/been up with the pace; however, thus far in his two attempts over the larger obstacles, he has been held up out the back. Both were poor runs, and I'm thinking that now he has shown that he can jump them, perhaps he will race more forward. First time cheekpieces, plus the jockey Marc Goldstein being the top course jock of the 8 taking part adds some hope.

3.55 Mellow Ben 6/1 ew

Has a chance in an open race. Came placed here before a few times over this sort of trip on good ground at the course when hurdling. Chris Gordon been among the winners recently - 6 from his last 30 runners - , which is pretty good for a trainer who wouldn't be in the top bracket. Tom Cannon rides one in this for Alan King; so am unsure what to make of that.

[Deleted User]

03/04

Running P & L -34.1pts

Invested 18pts.

Returns:

8.30 International Law (done ew @ 13/2) places at a fifth the odds returning 2.3pts
4.52 Milrow (done ew @ 20/1) places at a fifth the odds with a 10p rule 4 returning 4.6pts

Invested 18pts - returns 6.9pts

Loss for the day 11.1pts

Running invested total - 1,734 pts

Total P & L -45.2pts

[Deleted User]

6.30 Wolves

Grey Galleon 13/2 ew

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

4.15 Newton Abbot Amanofhisword 11/2 ew

First time over fences... No good on his few hurdles runs.. They were on soft..... Ran okay in a good ground bumper.. Must be a chasing prospect... But mainly cos he's seen a lot of money

Rubbish.... Pulled up I think

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

8.30 Wolves Seaforth 25/1 ew

Has a chance with a return to form. Has to put a few bad runs behind him, but can excuse a couple of those as he was drawn low, which was probably not ideal for one that needs holding up. Angus Villiers takes 5 off too.

Same race 8.30 Wolves

International Law 13/2 ew

A good price now, and can go well here.

[Deleted User]

4.15 Newton Abbot Amanofhisword 11/2 ew

First time over fences... No good on his few hurdles runs.. They were on soft..... Ran okay in a good ground bumper.. Must be a chasing prospect... But mainly cos he's seen a lot of money

[Deleted User]

2.40 Haydock Mahlermade 14/1 ew

C & D winner, low weight. Won this in 2019 - only race this 8yr old has ever won. Conditions look softer than he normally tackles, but I'm hoping the ground won't be a concern. Runs more bad than good races, and not one for massive confidence, but the price is reasonable. Am hoping to see a bold bid from the front.

[Deleted User]

02/04

Running P & L -25.3pts

Invested 11pts.

Returns:

2.15 Kapono (done ew) places at 5/1 at a quarter the odds returning 2.2pts

Invested 11pts - returns 2.2pts

Loss for the day 8.8pts

Running invested total - 1,716 pts

Total P & L -34.1pts

[Deleted User]

4.11 Musselburgh Machree 9/1 ew

Drawn in the middle in box 8 should be a good place to be for this mare who likes to race prominently. No real reason why this one's the pick, but the price is okay, and it might suit to be up with the pace here. 5 places on offer here, and if the topweight's on form will hope that Hanagan can add to his impressive strike rate at the course.