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Racing Uncertainties

[Deleted User]

I am starting this with the intention of posting selections for Horse Racing.

Nowt is certain in this game. Hence the title.

One to start off with.

Wolverhampton 7.15 Zafaranah

Mrs Barclay's Mare had a return to form last week when 2nd at the course over the extended mile. The horse has won before at this time of year, and is twice a Course and Distance winner off ratings higher than what she's assessed at tonight.

Available to back at 15/2 and bigger, I give it an each way chance here. Drawn 9 of 11 aint ideal, but I had no say in the box allocation.

I wish myself the best of luck with my thread, and hope to provide many winners and big priced placers.

That's all for now.

Gluck

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[Deleted User]

06/04

Running P & L -45.6pts

Invested 2pts

Returns - none

Invested 2pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 2pts

Running invested total - 1,748 pts

Total P & L -47.6pts

[Deleted User]

A couple I hope might go well tomorrow. Prices aint great though.

7.45 Newcastle Highlight Reel 15/2 ew

8.15 The Mousen Champ 11/1 ew

Hard to make solid claims for either; and I wouldn't be surprised if they drifted, but I think they can get involved.

[Deleted User]

1.45 Catterick Carlovian 11/1 ew

Has decent place possibilites. Is a course winner, and can race from the front, or off the pace. Probably won't win on form, but still could hold on - if going from the front - , or run on - if held up- , for a place. Is a good enough price for an ew play anyway here in this apprentice race, with his trainer M T Walford being among the winners recently.

[Deleted User]

2.50 Catterick Single 9/2 ew , Nataleena 16/1 ew

Both these have chances here, having form at the trip, grade and going that could see them get involved in this. I'm not liking the 6/4 fav Wise Eagle here, and a 3 place lay bet would be tempting. Am not on Betfair, but was looking at the exchange, and can't understand the price discrepancies - it seems Wise Eagle can be currently backed at 1.21 for a place, but the lay price is 1.6? Don't understand that at all.

[Deleted User]

4.50 Catt Lady Of Desire 22/1 ew , Krystal Maze 16/1 ew

Lady of Desire a bit of a punt, based on her first ever run as a 2yr old.

Krystal Maze would have a chance based on her second last run; where she ran keen, but was running on at the end of a 5f race, which was ran in a fast time. She's one of two Ollie Pears has in this race, as he also saddles the 4/1 2nd fav Blissful Song, who won at Southwell over 5 lto.. Seems a poor enough race, and I'm counting on her not being involved here.

pottokblue

Any ideas leffsem for GN 21? Think I'll go for a JP runner either anysecondnow, minellatimes, musicalslave, its been a time since AP and Dontpu**** won 2010

[Deleted User]

pottokblue wrote: »

Any ideas leffsem for GN 21? Think I'll go for a JP runner either anysecondnow, minellatimes, musicalslave, its been a time since AP and Dontpu**** won 2010

Alright pottokblue - ya I've been having a look alright in the last day or so...

Already on Burrows Saint at 20s..

Looking for 1 or two more maybe to throw at the board... Like you I'm tryna make a case for one of JPs - Think he has about 8 in it atm out of about 60 odd that are still in the reckoning, and of those 8, I think 7 are in the handicap proper.

Canelo is the one I'm liking myself... His last run at Doncaster was fairly okay when he came third over 3m 2f. That was the furthest the Alan King 8yr old has ever raced over. I think he's in with a shout... Open to improvement too I'd say... About 25/1 for it... Prob look at race again after the decs are out...

Hope the 7/2 - 4/1 fav Cloth Cap comes nowhere....

But that's me... J O'Neill a crook, and Hemmings has won enough :pac: Rather see JP or WP land it - only cos I've backed em; or are about to

[Deleted User]

2.00 Lingfield Poet's Eye 14/1 ew

Top two in the betting Lost Eden (11/4) , and the jolly Royal Mews (4/11) look to have this between them. I think Poet's Eye can be best of the rest.. She ran poor enough at Chelmsford over today's 10fs trip lto, but that was a Class 4, and she didn't have the smoothest of passages.. First of her two runs; which was over a mile at today's venue was okay in the context of today's race, and she was staying on at the end. Unlikely to win, as there are two serious animals running here, but 14/1 ew equates to 9/10 if coming placed.. Think she's only 11/10 to place, so happy to go ew here, with the, albeit very slim possibility of winning. She also gets a fillies' allowance, and the two at the top of the card have winners' penalties to shoulder, so she has 12lbs less to carry than the jollies.

[Deleted User]

1.30 Lingfield Recuerdame 20/1 EW

FLOOPER

[Deleted User] wrote: »

1.30 Lingfield Recuerdame 20/1 EW

First 5 home in 6 Gowran
125/1
40/1
18/1
18/1
22/1
Beating the fav 5/6 into 6th

I’m not an expert on racing far from it but this seems ludicrous.

[Deleted User]

07/04

Running P & L -47.6pts

Invested 22pts

Returns:

3.50 The Big House (done ew @ 10/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 3pts
8.15 The Mousen Champ (done ew) places at 11/1 returning 3.2pts

Invested 22pts - returns 6.2pts

Loss for the day 15.8pts

Running invested total - 1,770 pts

Total P & L -63.4pts

[Deleted User]

FLOOPER wrote: »

First 5 home in 6 Gowran
125/1
40/1
18/1
18/1
22/1
Beating the fav 5/6 into 6th

I’m not an expert on racing far from it but this seems ludicrous.

True enough - tis Irish racing for ya :rolleyes:

Still, twas a 3yr old maiden, but a sickener for punters, as neither Aidan's well backed fav, or Joey's seemingly decent priced (having drifted out to 7/2) inmate got involved.

Don't know if it was a 3 or 4 place race, but the first was 200/1 at one stage, and returned 125/1. The second opened up in the morning/night before, and was available at 150/1 - returned 40/1. The 4th was 50/1 early doors, and comes home at 18s :P

Seems like every big priced horse in that race that saw support got involved, with the short priced ones nowhere, and the ones what remained a consistent price, or didn't move much in betting were never in contention at all.

Had a look at the form after, and would no way have picked the 1st or second that were available at 200/1, and 150/1 early in the day. Not a chance :pac:

The punter has no chance in a race like that

If I was having a bet in it, I might have went for one of the O'brien's, but beyond that, it would be a stick a pin in it.

On the flip side though; it was a maiden, and apparently horses are entitled to come on for a run, or two

Plus, a lot of them only had a couple of runs; and two, I think, had 3 runs (one of them was Joseph's), some had none; and many of them had long absences to contend with.

Irish racing a joke, but I wouldn't be using that particular race as a prime example of shenanigans/crookery; but then again, I don't have a clue if the (well bred) jollies were expected to go well by their connections. Flip side though; when the top two home were backed (to a degree) , it does seem a bit off alright..

I'd rather back a horse at Market Rasen, or Fontwell, or any Micky Mouse handicap really; than say, having to have a bet in a maiden, just cos big things are expected of some of them... It's nice when ya back one, and it wins at 11/8 on the snaff, or oppose the even money jolly, and get the third fav to oblige at 9/2. But, with so little form to go on; trying to get the winner in those sorta races; or even the 3yr old handicaps is bloody hard.

The amount of runners too is something else; esp at a flat meet with 3yr old handicaps, and maidens etc.. No lack of 'subscriptions' for the 7 races at Gowran yesterday... 16, 11, 15, 15, 16, 17, and 17 runners went to post in the respective 7 races. Probably best to stick to the all age handicaps, unless ya really fancy something, as so many unknowns in maidens/3yr old fillies' handicaps etc.,

And Gowran is back on today again

[Deleted User]

4.50 Chelmsford Musee D'orsay 8/1 EW

Looks open enough this race, and the top three in the betting, ranging between 11/4, and 4/1 all look beatable.

The selection is dropping down the weights; albeit from marks in the low 50s, down to 48. He does race a lot out the back, and often cos he's slow to break. The price is a bit shorter than what I'd like (is 16/1 in the probable SP, and that would be very fair) , as there's a lot to take on trust.

But; like I said, I don't think this race will take a lot of winning. The reasons I have to hope for a good run is: the 1st time equipment (eyeshield this time) - even if some reckon it's a negative; with low grade horses, I'd have it as a plus. This might help him break on terms. Another reason is that he's won over 7, which was in March of last year, although that was on Standard to Slow at Kempton. Reason no. 3 is Luke the sniper is on top for the first time. Probably should be win only on account I'm not too enthused about the price, but if he gets 'involved' here, which I'm hoping he will, then a place would yield a profit.

Good luck all

Could really do with a few winners soon to reverse this recent downturn.

[Deleted User]

5.20 Chelmsford Six Strings 6/1 win

Looks a very good price here - I reckon 7/2 is reasonable, 4s would be decent, and 9/2 or bigger is definitely value. One however that can be slow away, and will most likely be held up regardless. Also has a tendency to be a bit keen-going - not exactly solid race-winning credentials

Plus side though is he's dropping down the weights, and although he's never won on the course in his five attempts; he does at least seem to act on the surface. He came third lto over C & D, and that was a fifteen runner affair. With only seven going to post, he, at least won't have too many to pass.

More a value bet this, than one who has them aforementioned solid race-winning credentials, and hard to pass any of them over really; with Mike Murphy's joint fav Velvet Vista at an appealing enough 5/2, looking the most likely to win based on her recent C & D endeavours. Just the win on the selection for me though.

[Deleted User]

5.50 Chel Dyagilev 9/1 win

A bit of a punt this one. I feel the only chance this one has, is if Jack Mitchell can send him to the front, and dictate the race. If he's held up, or something else gets the lead; I fear he'll not be good enough. Is a C & D winner, and the price is right.

[Deleted User]

6.50 Chelmsford Tilsworth Lukey 50/1 ew

A bit of a punt this one. Out of form, but is a C & D winner in a similar bottom grade race before. The very capable Marco Ghiani takes the seat for the first time with his useful 3lbs claim.

[Deleted User]

3.05 Taunton Johni Boxit 9/1 ew

Shorter than I thought he'd be - pretty sure he was a lot bigger an hour or so ago when I checked his price. There is a 3/1 NR in this, so maybe that's the reason. Selection has had 7 hurdles' outings, and not done much thus far. One of his best performances; I think, was when he came 4th two runs back at Warwick. That was on similar ground as what he faces today.

He ran keen out the back, which didn't help his chances much. He has ran well on good ground over 10fs at Bath before, on the flat. I do think that he doesn't stay very well, but can be capable of getting involved over 2m, if the 5lb claiming jockey sends him on from the front, or runs close to the pace. His first hurdles' rating was 94, and it's down to 82 now. Think he was 14/1 earlier this morning, but I missed the price at time. Snooze, ya lose

I remembered I noticed him when I had a glance at this card yesterday, or the day before; but forgot about him

:pac:

[Deleted User]

2.50 Aintree Clondaw Castle 13/2 win

Lto winner. Came 2nd at the course last October. Was 3m and good ground at Kempton, when he won there last month. Should go well.. Hasn't raced much at 3m though, apart from that run. Would appear a bitta value from a win perspective, though not so much an ew prospect.

pottokblue

Might have won but CDO cruised home

[Deleted User]

Great ride from JJ.. Was still in with a good shout two out, but the winner a beast today :pac:

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

3.05 Taunton Johni Boxit 9/1 ew

Shorter than I thought he'd be - pretty sure he was a lot bigger an hour or so ago when I checked his price. There is a 3/1 NR in this, so maybe that's the reason. Selection has had 7 hurdles' outings, and not done much thus far. One of his best performances; I think, was when he came 4th two runs back at Warwick. That was on similar ground as what he faces today.

He ran keen out the back, which didn't help his chances much. He has ran well on good ground over 10fs at Bath before, on the flat. I do think that he doesn't stay very well, but can be capable of getting involved over 2m, if the 5lb claiming jockey sends him on from the front, or runs close to the pace. His first hurdles' rating was 94, and it's down to 82 now. Think he was 14/1 earlier this morning, but I missed the price at time. Snooze, ya lose I remembered I noticed him when I had a glance at this card yesterday, or the day before; but forgot about him :pac:

A bit sickened about this one... Must've been well-backed early today.... Drifts out to 20/1 - was in about 4th and still travelling well until the saddle slipped about 3 out

Pulled up.... Money comes, and then drifts, and that - as far as the punter is concerned - usually spells doom for any chance :mad: Ya have to wonder sometimes

:rolleyes:

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

4.50 Chelmsford Musee D'orsay 8/1 EW

Looks open enough this race, and the top three in the betting, ranging between 11/4, and 4/1 all look beatable.

The selection is dropping down the weights; albeit from marks in the low 50s, down to 48. He does race a lot out the back, and often cos he's slow to break. The price is a bit shorter than what I'd like (is 16/1 in the probable SP, and that would be very fair) , as there's a lot to take on trust.

But; like I said, I don't think this race will take a lot of winning. The reasons I have to hope for a good run is: the 1st time equipment (eyeshield this time) - even if some reckon it's a negative; with low grade horses, I'd have it as a plus. This might help him break on terms. Another reason is that he's won over 7, which was in March of last year, although that was on Standard to Slow at Kempton. Reason no. 3 is Luke the sniper is on top for the first time. Probably should be win only on account I'm not too enthused about the price, but if he gets 'involved' here, which I'm hoping he will, then a place would yield a profit.

Good luck all Could really do with a few winners soon to reverse this recent downturn.

YIPPPEEEEEEEEE

AAYYYYYYYTTTTEEEEEEEEN 2 1

If I could thank my own post, I would, as I once seen a regular AH poster comment..... :pac: :pac:

4/1 WD at start, so about a 20p ruler... Still.... YIPPPEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!

Oh, and well done to ShamoBuc on the main thread here who posted a #hard to find 5/1 winner... Doesn't post much, or many selections; but his strike-rate is summit else

#was only 5/1, but I couldn't make a case for it neither

GWANNNNN DA SNIPEEEEEEEER!

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

5.50 Chel Dyagilev 9/1 win

A bit of a punt this one. I feel the only chance this one has, is if Jack Mitchell can send him to the front, and dictate the race. If he's held up, or something else gets the lead; I fear he'll not be good enough. Is a C & D winner, and the price is right.

Dyagliev no good

Jack Mitchell didn't read thread - he kept selection in 2nd for most of the race :pac: .... Until he faded into close to last..

[Deleted User]

^^^^

Just saw replay - he finished a poor last

One more to come.. Hopefully 'e'll be Lukey, will Tilsworth

Goes in 6.50... Saw some coin early doars :pac:

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

Time for a few AP bets

Grand National Burrows Saint 18/1 e/w (1/5 1-5)
Cheltenham Gold Cup Santini 10/1 e/w (1/5 1-3)
2000 Guineas Battleground 8/1 e/w (1/5 1-3)
Derby High Definition 6/1 e/w (1/5 1-3)

The two flat races are in May and June, so I would say by then things should be okay travel wise for the Irish contingent.

GN in April, so that looks good too.

If Santini turns up, he's definitely good enough to be involved in the Gold Cup. Too good imo to be going to a National; at least yet.

Put that GN selection up on 06/01 I think..

Grand National Aintree 5.15 Sat 10 April

Canelo 40/1 ew (1/5 1-7 places) NRNB

Another selection for the 'Race that stops a Nation'

One of 7 for JP , and the one of his that carries the most weight (Anibale Fly) shoulders 10-12.. Some man James for getting a good weight for em

Selection Canelo is only eight yrs of age, has had 10 outings over the larger obstacles. His lto run is what caught my eye, and so will serve as my second dart in this (might have another few tilts, but not pushed if I don't) , going on that race, which was at Doncaster last month.

That was over 3m 2f, which is the furthest he's ever been. He came third, and travelled well for most of the race until he was carried to his right upon jumping the last, having looked like having a reasonable chance at close to the business end.

He was beaten just about 7 lengths that day. That day he was sent off favourite, and the race was on good ground. An extra mile to contend with Saturday, so, like a lot of others in this race; there's no way of knowing whether he'll stay the trip. Absent any evidence that suggests otherwise; I'm thinking he'll stay out the 4m. 2f. 74yds. trip.

A run for my money be good here, and if he's in contention come the elbow, then I can't really ask or expect much more than that. I would suggest he's unexposed, and as far as breeding goes; I wouldn't have a clue about Mahler's progenies, and whether or not they stay this far. Then again, the selection's sire Mahler is 'only' 17, so I guess (am probably wrong tho) that there's not a huge amount of data on his sons or daughters' staying ability beyond 4m. Can only hope that that will go without saying come approx 5.25 Saturday evening

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

6.50 Chelmsford Tilsworth Lukey 50/1 ew

A bit of a punt this one. Out of form, but is a C & D winner in a similar bottom grade race before. The very capable Marco Ghiani takes the seat for the first time with his useful 3lbs claim.

2nd last

Jockey tried his best though; winding him up on t' apex of last bend, but, alas, nowhere near good enuf....

[Deleted User]

Friday 09/04

A couple of hopeful ones.

3.47 Sedgefield Scorpo 66/1 ew

A former C & D winner. Needs to regain some of his old form to get involved here. Is 10, so not ancient. Has a squeak.

8.10 Kempton Ruby Gates 16/1 ew
Won a race over the mile distance at Lingfield in March of last year. She has ran well before over C & D; although quite a while ago, when she came third in a Class 4 in June 2019 on the Standard to Slow going. Trainer John Butler is in form, and although the horse is out of form, she does sometimes put in a good run after a series of bad ones.

2 selections, and they're both well out of form. A run for me money be good, and anything after that a bonus. The prices are good though, and conditions are optimal, if they decide to find a light of otherdays performance..

[Deleted User]

08/04

Running P & L -63.4pts

Invested 9pts

Returns:

4.50 Musee D'orsay (done ew) wins at 18/1 at a quarter the odds a place with a 20p rule 4 returning 20pts

Invested 9pts - returns 20pts

Profit for the day - 11pts

Running invested total - 1,779 pts

Total P & L -52.4pts

[Deleted User]

Thread was over 60pts down a couple of days ago. Now we're into about a 1.5% profit, thanks to 2 big priced winners in the last 24hrs

Swings and rindabites

[Deleted User]

6.25 Wexford Crosshue Boy 12/1 ew

This 11yr old; who's been lightly raced in recent seasons has decent place claims here. Has good course form too, and if on song, is a definite stayer. The well backed jolly Ornua would have been worth a bet earlier, when he was a lot bigger than the best-priced 11/4 he's available at now. Perhaps not a guaranteed stayer, the fav, and probably best left alone imo. Also, the selection's trainer Sean Doyle has been among the winners recently.

Luck anyone who's following