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Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

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  • #4202
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,468 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Kivaro wrote: »
    4,000 people died with Covid in Brazil yesterday, all in a 24 hour period. Yesterday 3 Brazilians who flew into Dublin and spent less than a day in a quarantine hotel just walked out of the hotel, got into a car and drove 150 kms heading towards Donegal before they were stopped by Gardai, and asked to return to the hotel. We should be stopping all arrivals from Brazil until the country gets their act together. The very high death toll in Brazil, including the record number of deaths yesterday, are attributed to variants, which does not surprise me as Brazil is just a petri dish for Covid variants due to the lack of control efforts in that country. With such a high degree of Covid transmission in Brazil, people should not be flying out of Brazil and they certainly should not be allowed into Ireland if they do decide to leave the country.

    Do you have a link that says they arrived from Brazil ?

    Just curious as anything I've read from the Irish times etc doesn't mention where they arrived from

    Edit: original article updated to mention it.


  • #4203
    spakman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,286 ✭✭✭spakman


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Do you have a link that says they arrived from Brazil ?

    Just curious as anything I've read from the Irish times etc doesn't mention where they arrived from

    Was said on Morning Ireland. But they also said they wetr heading to Donegal whereas other reports said they were stopped near loughrea, which is a long way in the wrong direction from Donegal!


  • #4204
    ek motor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 548 ✭✭✭ek motor


    spakman wrote: »
    Was said on Morning Ireland. But they also said they wetr heading to Donegal whereas other reports said they were stopped near loughrea, which is a long way in the wrong direction from Donegal!

    They were stopped on the M6 , taking the scenic route via Galway


  • #4205
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,468 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    spakman wrote: »
    Was said on Morning Ireland. But they also said they wetr heading to Donegal whereas other reports said they were stopped near loughrea, which is a long way in the wrong direction from Donegal!

    Yeah they were going to Loughrea according to Gardai & stopped just outside it on the motorway

    I've just spotted the Irish times updated their original article yesterday to say " it's believed their Brazilian"

    They didn't mention it in later articles.

    Hard to know what reports and rumours are accurate


  • #4206
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,685 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Do you have a link that says they arrived from Brazil ?

    Just curious as anything I've read from the Irish times etc doesn't mention where they arrived from

    In the Irish Times
    The three women are believed to be Brazilian nationals who attempted to make their way home to Loughrea, Co Galway.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/three-women-return-to-quarantine-hotel-after-absconding-1.4530391


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  • #4207
    CoronaBlocker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 247 ✭✭CoronaBlocker


    CoronaBlocker wrote: »
    We will not stop a Frenchman from coming to Ireland - but we will stop a Corkman from going to Kerry.
    Hashtag-freedom-of-movement-does-not-always-apply

    There has been a lot of talk about Brasil this morning. It's noteworthy that France has French Guiana right on the northern border of Brasil. French Guiana is an internal department of France - not some colonial outpost. This means you can travel from Cayenne to Paris without a passport - it's an internal trip as far as France is concerned.

    And then of course from Paris you can fly right into Dublin!

    I have been across that French Guiana/Brasilian border a number of times over the years and never used my passport. It's a wide open river... cross wherever you like. Water-taxis abound.


  • #4208
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,173 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    232 in hospital this morning and likely to keep dropping all week.

    This is the lowest since 20th December.

    For reference, we've never had less than 200 in hospital for any sustained period since early October.

    If we break 200 and manage to dip below it, then we are well on top of this regardless of what the daily numbers or positivity rate is.

    ICU is still taking it time, but it'll get there.


  • #4209
    PMBC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,117 ✭✭✭PMBC


    Gael23 wrote: »
    40 discharges from hospital yesterday after 30 admissions over Easter weekend

    Can anyone point me to a Boards.ie or other site where the no of deaths, hospitalised, ICU cases and positives are tabulated on a daily basis and also as rolling averages for 5, 7 or 14 days from the start last year or from 1st Jan 21.
    Thanks


  • #4210
    castletownman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,401 ✭✭✭✭castletownman


    After the revelation that Vitamin D may be a cure to covid earlier, I hear they are recommending flat 7-up next.

    Unsettled tummy? Drop of brandy before bed will crown you too.


  • #4211
    ShyMets
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,469 ✭✭✭ShyMets


    castletownman wrote: »
    After the revelation that Vitamin D may be a cure to covid earlier, I hear they are recommending flat 7-up next.

    Unsettled tummy? Drop of brandy before bed will crown you too.

    I've been regularly dosing myself with beer since the start of the pandemic and I've stayed Covid free:)


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  • #4212
    Vicxas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,629 ✭✭✭✭Vicxas


    seamus wrote: »
    232 in hospital this morning and likely to keep dropping all week.

    This is the lowest since 20th December.

    For reference, we've never had less than 200 in hospital for any sustained period since early October.

    If we break 200 and manage to dip below it, then we are well on top of this regardless of what the daily numbers or positivity rate is.

    ICU is still taking it time, but it'll get there.


    ICU will always take time to drop seeing as they're normally on ventilators and in need of a lot more time to be released.

    Delighted with these numbers.


  • #4213
    covidrelease
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 229 ✭✭covidrelease


    seamus wrote: »
    232 in hospital this morning and likely to keep dropping all week.

    This is the lowest since 20th December.

    For reference, we've never had less than 200 in hospital for any sustained period since early October.

    If we break 200 and manage to dip below it, then we are well on top of this regardless of what the daily numbers or positivity rate is.

    ICU is still taking it time, but it'll get there.

    So much for the situation being "precarious" according to NPHET.


  • #4214
    covidrelease
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 229 ✭✭covidrelease


    Reported July 16th : THE NEXT THREE weeks in Ireland look “very precarious” as the R-number – reproductive rate – of Covid-19 increases, NPHET warned this evening.

    Reported Nov 20th : The National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) has warned the Government that Ireland is in a “precarious position” and a looming third wave of Covid-19 could be more deadly than the last one.

    Reported March 11th 2021 : Prof Nolan said that there are some concerning trends in the data and "as the incidence remains high, our situation is precarious".

    Reported March 31st 2021 : Professor Philip Nolan, Chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, said; “The situation is stable but precarious. The Reproduction number is currently estimated at 1.0 – 1.3. If the epidemic is growing again now, the doubling time is estimated at 35 days or longer.


  • #4215
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,775 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    covidrelease wrote: »
    So much for the situation being "precarious" according to NPHET.

    It'll always be precarious as long as NPHET has the word "variants" in their arsenal.

    I am at this stage sick to death of seeing Ronan Glynn and Philip Nolan's doom-laden faces, governing policy for the rest of us when clearly things are on the right path - and quickly, too, with almost 1,000,000 vaccinations administered and this figure set to rocket in the coming 8-12 week period.


  • #4216
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,173 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    covidrelease wrote: »
    So much for the situation being "precarious" according to NPHET.
    That was nine days ago. It was precarious then.

    NPHET can only comment on the data that's in front of them, they don't have a crystal ball. The numbers dropping subsequently doesn't mean their interpretation was wrong.

    There is an influencer effect, and we've seen it happen 3 or 4 times now. Numbers start levelling off, NPHET start ringing the bell to warn that things might get ropey. And people change their behaviour. Which avoids the situation that NPHET were warning about.

    There are also other factors that can influence numbers, such as unseasonably warm & dry weather.


  • #4217
    eagle eye
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,926 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    seamus wrote:
    If we break 200 and manage to dip below it, then we are well on top of this regardless of what the daily numbers or positivity rate is.
    But we can't reopen anything if the positivity rate doesn't drop or the hospital numbers will likely increase massively again.


  • #4218
    plodder
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,982 ✭✭✭plodder


    Happydays2020 wrote: »
    Is she wrong? The 50 year old working from home may have school children so there is a risk there. That person drops the kids off the school, goes to the supermarket etc etc.
    She was wrong. Your own child would have to catch it at school before you could. The other risks are all controllable. Nobody should be going to the supermarket five days a week for 6 hours etc.

    “Fanaticism is always a sign of repressed doubt” - Carl Jung



  • #4219
    covidrelease
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 229 ✭✭covidrelease


    Deleted User wrote: »
    It'll always be precarious as long as NPHET has the word "variants" in their arsenal.

    I am at this stage sick to death of seeing Ronan Glynn and Philip Nolan's doom-laden faces, governing policy for the rest of us when clearly things are on the right path - and quickly, too, with almost 1,000,000 vaccinations administered and this figure set to rocket in the coming 8-12 week period.

    Interestingly when there was no mention of new variants the situation last July was "very precarious"

    Lately its just "precarious"

    These people are spoofers plain and simple.

    Of the 4 times they called it "precarious" twice so far there as no spike, the third time was Christmas and we know why that happened, their 4th precarious call was 31st March and its not looking great for their prediction this time either.


  • #4220
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,468 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    eagle eye wrote: »
    But we can't reopen anything if the positivity rate doesn't drop or the hospital numbers will likely increase massively again.

    The positivity rate is dropping....


  • #4221
    Turtwig
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    eagle eye wrote: »
    But we can't reopen anything if the positivity rate doesn't drop or the hospital numbers will likely increase massively again.

    The positivity rate is rather good. Yes, it would ideally be lower but there's little to indicate there's uncontrolled spread at the moment. While the situation is very finely balanced it is at this moment one that is contained.


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  • #4222
    covidrelease
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 229 ✭✭covidrelease


    eagle eye wrote: »
    But we can't reopen anything if the positivity rate doesn't drop or the hospital numbers will likely increase massively again.

    Of course we can. For example, construction, Click and collect, outdoor drinking and dining, outdoor sports, loads of stuff.


  • #4223
    covidrelease
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 229 ✭✭covidrelease


    seamus wrote: »
    That was nine days ago. It was precarious then.

    NPHET can only comment on the data that's in front of them, they don't have a crystal ball. The numbers dropping subsequently doesn't mean their interpretation was wrong.

    There is an influencer effect, and we've seen it happen 3 or 4 times now. Numbers start levelling off, NPHET start ringing the bell to warn that things might get ropey. And people change their behaviour. Which avoids the situation that NPHET were warning about.

    There are also other factors that can influence numbers, such as unseasonably warm & dry weather.

    Numbers don't drop just because NPHET call "precarious" every now and again.


  • #4224
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 3,733 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    ShyMets wrote: »
    I've been regularly dosing myself with beer since the start of the pandemic and I've stayed Covid free:)

    Yes. I have found red wine to be effective in preventing Covid. I said to someone recently that it's miraculous I escaped so far but then I remembered the wine :D


  • #4225
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    seamus wrote: »
    232 in hospital this morning and likely to keep dropping all week.

    This is the lowest since 20th December.

    For reference, we've never had less than 200 in hospital for any sustained period since early October.

    If we break 200 and manage to dip below it, then we are well on top of this regardless of what the daily numbers or positivity rate is.

    ICU is still taking it time, but it'll get there.

    That really is great news about the fall in hospitalisations.

    I note that the hospitality was open on the 20th of December.
    I think most people think we should reopen now.

    https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1379726586447024129?s=20


  • #4226
    covidrelease
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 229 ✭✭covidrelease


    On the 16th July 2020 there was 21, yes TWENTY ONE cases, and NPHET called "very precarious"


  • #4227
    timmyntc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,654 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    covidrelease wrote: »
    Numbers don't drop just because NPHET call "precarious" every now and again.

    Remember - all good things are due to NPHET, all bad things are because of the smelly public


  • #4228
    spakman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,286 ✭✭✭spakman


    eagle eye wrote: »
    But we can't reopen anything if the positivity rate doesn't drop or the hospital numbers will likely increase massively again.

    A higher positivity rate would lead to a small fraction of previously seen hospitalisation rate, due to the vaccinations of those most likely to be hospitalised!


  • #4229
    Multipass
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,678 ✭✭✭Multipass


    Irish Times headline today that ‘Ireland is on a knife edge as case numbers could go either way’
    The old worry meter needed a kickstart :pac:

    Another headline claiming that having covid increases mental health problems....


  • #4230
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,173 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    covidrelease wrote: »
    On the 16th July 2020 there was 21, yes TWENTY ONE cases, and NPHET called "very precarious"
    And they were right.

    On that date, we had seen the daily average cases double in the previous two weeks.

    The number 21 is small, but when you get into exponential growth, 21 cases becomes 300 cases in just 8 weeks.

    I had seen someone else call this out in July too and I dismissed it as "statistical noise". But they were right. 12 weeks later we had 1,000 cases/day.

    NPHET's modelling data spotted this in July and it was ignored.


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  • #4231
    timmyntc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,654 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    eagle eye wrote: »
    Look, I'd say over 90% of people in this thread would agree that you are carefree and pretty clueless about things.
    The way you go on we should have pubs open, everything open.
    So I'm just going to ignore you from now on.

    Look, I'd say over 90% of people in this thread would agree that you are scaremongering and pretty clueless about things.
    The way you go on we should have schools closed, everything closed.
    So I'm just going to ignore you from now on.


This discussion has been closed.
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