2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

fliball123 · 01-04-2021 06:33PM

schmittel wrote: »

This is an old trope on this forum - nobody knows that for certain; you don’t have a crystal ball (or time machine) in this case.

It’s most often used to try and undermine somebody whose opinion a poster doesn’t agree, or occasionally as in this case, to try and claim an opinion so far fetched might true, just because nobody can definitively say otherwise without a crystal ball or time machine. Classic clutching at straws to avoid simply say, yep, I see I didn’t really think that one through.

I have neither a crystal ball nor a time machine but I am 100% certain that Covid has negatively impacted supply. Anybody who thinks otherwise is living in dreamland, never mind a different dimension.

I have said Covid impacted supply numerous times . I am pointing out that we could of had a supply problem due to Brexit even if Covid had never existed and I contend that you would of had to have super powers to know the trajectory of property prices if Covid was not here...That is all your the one talking absolute garbage. Its been proven that there was a slowdown in supply Q4 of 2019 to which you said "Rubbish". Sorry remind me was Covid an issue in Q3 2019? NO

fliball123 · 01-04-2021 06:36PM

DataDude wrote: »

Final post on it, as I hate to dominate the thread on something stupid. I'm only doing it as you are the first person to call people out when they say things that you feel aren't based in fact.

I took the time to download the stats. Take a look at those numbers, and ask yourself, am I being reasonable to suggest that the figures in 2020/2021 are not the aberration and in fact it was Q4 2019 where this "downward trend" became evident. I don't think you need a masters in statistics to answer that one.

Q4 2016 20,875
Q4 2017 18,024
Q4 2018 21,700
Q4 2019 19,928
Q4 2020 14,390
Q1 2021 11,800

Jesus Christ for the last god damn time I am not arguing that Covid didnt have an inpact on the supply of property I am saying there could of been an impact had Brexit been given center stage and Covid was not here, we dont know to what extent supply could of dried up under those conditions..

01-04-2021 06:39PM

Today property market reminds me pub at 5AM were is about 20 drunk guys fighting for 1 bottle of whiskey left on shelve.

hometruths · 01-04-2021 06:44PM

fliball123 wrote: »

I have said Covid impacted supply numerous times . I am pointing out that we could of had a supply problem due to Brexit even if Covid had never existed and I contend that you would of had to have super powers to know otherwise or to know the tragectory of property prices if Covid was not here...That is all your the one talking absolute garbage. Its been proven that there was a slowdown in supply Q3 of 2019 to which you said "Rubbish". Your full of it.

Fair enough, if you're saying you now accept that Covid has impacted supply then presumably you'll accept that your post saying "Its hard to know if Covid made this worse" was in fact nonsense as I posted.

Everything else since then is just silliness, and apologies to others for derailment.

fliball123 · 01-04-2021 06:46PM

schmittel wrote: »

Fair enough, if you're saying you now accept that Covid has impacted supply then presumably you'll accept that your post saying "Its hard to know if Covid made this worse" was in fact nonsense as I posted.

Everything else since then is just silliness, and apologies to others for derailment.

Did I ever say anything else. I have said it now maybe half a dozen times today alone. I am saying had Brexit been dominating the psyche where Covid is currently for the year of 2020 till it passed at the end of last year it could of had a similar effect on supply even if Covid never happened. I dont know about you but 2018/2019 all I was hearing was a sh1t load of talk about how Brexit was going impact Ireland

hometruths · 01-04-2021 06:49PM

fliball123 wrote: »

Did I ever say anything else. I have said it now maybe half a dozen times today alone. I am saying had Brexit been dominating the psyche where Covid is currently for the year of 2020 till it passed it could of had a similar effect on supply.

Yes.

fliball123 wrote: »

Sorry but supply was coming off stream from back in Dec 2019 even before Covid entered the country. Its hard to know if Covid made this worse

fliball123 · 01-04-2021 06:58PM

schmittel wrote: »

Yes.

and I contend if Covid was not here we could of ended up with the simular supply issue. This is different than saying Covid did not have an effect on supply.

Hubertj · 01-04-2021 07:02PM

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/which-way-are-house-prices-heading-depends-on-the-data-1.4523010?mode=amp

Read this earlier. What I found interesting was that the number of 2nd hand homes coming to market has been declining YoY for the last decade. I wonder how this correlates to increases in vacant property in some areas and what other factors drive this continued reduction

fliball123 · 01-04-2021 07:05PM

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/which-way-are-house-prices-heading-depends-on-the-data-1.4523010?mode=amp

Read this earlier. What I found interesting was that the number of 2nd hand homes coming to market has been declining YoY for the last decade. I wonder how this correlates to increases in vacant property in some areas and what other factors drive this continued reduction

I reckon the hardship a bank has to go through to try and repossess a family home would have a big bearing in this number.

01-04-2021 07:05PM

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/which-way-are-house-prices-heading-depends-on-the-data-1.4523010?mode=amp

Read this earlier. What I found interesting was that the number of 2nd hand homes coming to market has been declining YoY for the last decade. I wonder how this correlates to increases in vacant property in some areas and what other factors drive this continued reduction

This is normal same as rising savings.
People not sure about the future.
But at the moment today is the best time sell property.

standardg60 · 01-04-2021 07:44PM

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/which-way-are-house-prices-heading-depends-on-the-data-1.4523010?mode=amp

Read this earlier. What I found interesting was that the number of 2nd hand homes coming to market has been declining YoY for the last decade. I wonder how this correlates to increases in vacant property in some areas and what other factors drive this continued reduction

Doubt you'd need to look too much further than a burgeoning rental market.

Thanks for changing the subject btw

Hubertj · 01-04-2021 07:48PM

standardg60 wrote: »

Doubt you'd need to look too much further than a burgeoning rental market.

Thanks for changing the subject btw

Good point. Didn’t think of that.

Skipped the last few pages....

laurah591 · 01-04-2021 08:06PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

This is normal same as rising savings.
People not sure about the future.
But at the moment today is the best time sell property.

We are selling our house in a commuter town around dublin and moving west... but now thinking of walking away from sale even though offer on our house is very good because absolutely no supply where we want to go and the idea of renting for 18months + is very unappealing

standardg60 · 01-04-2021 08:14PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Keep in mind developers chose not to bring 5% of new property onto the market in 2019 because they thought the market prices wouldn't be achieved

The construction industry has long been a cabal here, controlling supply, directing Pub/Priv partnerships to their benefit, and divvying up land between themselves to avoid competition, while lobbying the state for vat reductions and subsidies.

MacronvFrugals · 01-04-2021 08:20PM

standardg60 wrote: »

The construction industry has long been a cabal here, controlling supply, directing Pub/Priv partnerships to their benefit, and divvying up land between themselves to avoid competition, while lobbying the state for vat reductions and subsidies.

Also they moaned for long enough about "slow planning" and the state allowed them to write the procedures from scratch, a cabal is appropriate language in this case!

hometruths · 01-04-2021 08:26PM

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/which-way-are-house-prices-heading-depends-on-the-data-1.4523010?mode=amp

Read this earlier. What I found interesting was that the number of 2nd hand homes coming to market has been declining YoY for the last decade. I wonder how this correlates to increases in vacant property in some areas and what other factors drive this continued reduction

IMO the biggest factor in this is the removal of bridging loans from the market, and whatever about the vacancies, the decline in turnover of second hand stock contributes massively to the fact that we have the highest rates of underoccupancy in Europe.

What we need with far greater urgency than 30/40/50k new builds a year is a giant game of musical chairs in the existing stock. The solutions to get this ball rolling are so maddeningly obvious I just cant understand why govt don't implement them.

If I was minister my very first act would be to scrap shared equity scheme and take the complete opposite path - introduce state backed bridging loans for up to 70% of the value of the equity in your house.

There are tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of people, sitting happily in their fully paid off houses who would quite like to move if it was made easy for them. Currently the biggest barrier is finance. They are too old to get mortgages, so they are left with the option of trying to sell and buy and one go, and if the chain collapses, end up trying to find a rental, what do they do with a lifetime of stuff etc. They read the news about the current state of the market and think, no thanks, that sounds like a nightmare, I am better off staying put.

Bridging loans would solve these problems. Govt can borrow at almost zero, but they could charge 3.5% interest rolled up. Use the profits to build developments targeted specifically for these downsizers (exempt them Part 5 etc) in order to encourage more to trade down and free up even more stock of family homes.

This will have an immediate positive effect on supply without pushing up the debts of the FTB generation and the risks of the taxpayer.

I have posted on this before and posed the question - what am I missing? to me it is such an obvious solution and so clearly better than shared equity schemes etc, that I just cannot understand why it has not been done.

And for the avoidance of doubt, I am emphatically not talking about hounding old people out of their homes. Quite the opposite. I am talking about making it as simple as possible to move if they want to, but only if they want to.

Hubertj · 01-04-2021 09:08PM

schmittel wrote: »

IMO the biggest factor in this is the removal of bridging loans from the market, and whatever about the vacancies, the decline in turnover of second hand stock contributes massively to the fact that we have the highest rates of underoccupancy in Europe.

What we need with far greater urgency than 30/40/50k new builds a year is a giant game of musical chairs in the existing stock. The solutions to get this ball rolling are so maddeningly obvious I just cant understand why govt don't implement them.

If I was minister my very first act would be to scrap shared equity scheme and take the complete opposite path - introduce state backed bridging loans for up to 70% of the value of the equity in your house.

There are tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of people, sitting happily in their fully paid off houses who would quite like to move if it was made easy for them. Currently the biggest barrier is finance. They are too old to get mortgages, so they are left with the option of trying to sell and buy and one go, and if the chain collapses, end up trying to find a rental, what do they do with a lifetime of stuff etc. They read the news about the current state of the market and think, no thanks, that sounds like a nightmare, I am better off staying put.

Bridging loans would solve these problems. Govt can borrow at almost zero, but they could charge 3.5% interest rolled up. Use the profits to build developments targeted specifically for these downsizers (exempt them Part 5 etc) in order to encourage more to trade down and free up even more stock of family homes.

This will have an immediate positive effect on supply without pushing up the debts of the FTB generation and the risks of the taxpayer.

I have posted on this before and posed the question - what am I missing? to me it is such an obvious solution and so clearly better than shared equity schemes etc, that I just cannot understand why it has not been done.

And for the avoidance of doubt, I am emphatically not talking about hounding old people out of their homes. Quite the opposite. I am talking about making it as simple as possible to move if they want to, but only if they want to.

Very good point. I think it would have to be done in parallel or after developments you refer are built. From my in laws experience they had great difficulty finding something suitable to downsize to and that prolonged the search.... and they had to sell first, then move,then rent, then buy, then move...

hometruths · 01-04-2021 09:26PM

Hubertj wrote: »

Very good point. I think it would have to be done in parallel or after developments you refer are built. From my in laws experience they had great difficulty finding something suitable to downsize to and that prolonged the search.... and they had to sell first, then move,then rent, then buy, then move...

No doubt that to encourage downsizing in significant numbers new developments would be helpful, but why not start off with the bridging loans immediately?

I am not buying the idea that people cannot downsize because the properties they need to downsize to have not been built yet. They have been built, it's just that the entire market is clogged up in a giant negative feedback loop.

Introducing the finance to will turn that loop on its head. Early adopter downsizers will generate a positive feedback loop.

Plenty of empty nesters living in big family homes would be very happy to move to some of the newer apartments. Plenty of young couples in the newer apartments would be happy to move to the big family homes.

Both types of property currently exist, they are just occupied by the wrong people. This is what we need to change.

It could be started almost immediately and it would take very little to get that ball rolling.

Cyrus · 01-04-2021 09:30PM

schmittel wrote: »

No doubt that to encourage downsizing in significant numbers new developments would be helpful, but why not start off with the bridging loans immediately?

I am not buying the idea that people cannot downsize because the properties they need to downsize to have not been built yet. They have been built, it's just that the entire market is clogged up in a giant negative feedback loop.

Introducing the finance to will turn that loop on its head. Early adopter downsizers will generate a positive feedback loop.

Plenty of empty nesters living in big family homes would be very happy to move to some of the newer apartments. Plenty of young couples in the newer apartments would be happy to move to the big family homes.

Both types of property currently exist, they are just occupied by the wrong people. This is what we need to change.

It could be started almost immediately and it would take very little to get that ball rolling.

It’s a good idea for sure but bridging loans have a bad rep from the last crash. They were a product once but Banks appear reluctant now and if a bank feels it too risky I don’t think the state has any business doing it.

Hubertj · 01-04-2021 09:41PM

schmittel wrote: »

No doubt that to encourage downsizing in significant numbers new developments would be helpful, but why not start off with the bridging loans immediately?

I am not buying the idea that people cannot downsize because the properties they need to downsize to have not been built yet. They have been built, it's just that the entire market is clogged up in a giant negative feedback loop.

Introducing the finance to will turn that loop on its head. Early adopter downsizers will generate a positive feedback loop.

Plenty of empty nesters living in big family homes would be very happy to move to some of the newer apartments. Plenty of young couples in the newer apartments would be happy to move to the big family homes.

Both types of property currently exist, they are just occupied by the wrong people. This is what we need to change.

It could be started almost immediately and it would take very little to get that ball rolling.

True to a point but I’m thinking more about entire developments aimed at downsizes / older people. Supporting facilities, different types - apartments, bungalows (gardens) etc. They do this very well in the US and other places.

hometruths · 01-04-2021 09:42PM

Cyrus wrote: »

It’s a good idea for sure but bridging loans have a bad rep from the last crash. They were a product once but Banks appear reluctant now and if a bank feels it too risky I don’t think the state has any business doing it.

Sure in the last crash banks were probably bridging 110% on properties that had 10% equity or some other madness.

I am talking about implementing lending limits off for example max 70% of the equity in your house. And it could be minimum loan size of eg 250k. So to qualify you'd have to have about 350k in equity in your house.

Whatever the figures are the point is this is not a difficult product to control for risk.

And if the state is thinking no way to something like this because they are risk averse, what on earth are they doing proposing stumping up 30% of equity for first time buyers.

I always used to think the reason the state wouldn't do it is because, politically, they wanted to stay away from the idea of taking a charge on equity in peoples houses. That i could understand, but the shared equity scheme blows that theory out of the water.

Cyrus · 01-04-2021 09:46PM

schmittel wrote: »

Sure in the last crash banks were probably bridging 110% on properties that had 10% equity or some other madness.

I am talking about implementing lending limits off for example max 70% of the equity in your house. And it could be minimum loan size of eg 250k. So to qualify you'd have to have about 350k in equity in your house.

Whatever the figures are the point is this is not a difficult product to control for risk.

And if the state is thinking no way to something like this because they are risk averse, what on earth are they doing proposing stumping up 30% of equity for first time buyers.

I always used to think the reason the state wouldn't do it is because, politically, they wanted to stay away from the idea of taking a charge on equity in peoples houses. That i could understand, but the shared equity scheme blows that theory out of the water.

Fair enough, I suppose worst case scenario the market turns in the middle of transactions and the downsizer has paid top dollar for the new home and isn’t prepared to take a bath on the one for sale. Thus prolonging the process and leaving them with an expensive loan that they hadn’t counted on.

But you are right we need to give people an alternative to staying in unsuitable accommodation and freeing it up .

hometruths · 01-04-2021 09:48PM

Hubertj wrote: »

True to a point but I’m thinking more about entire developments aimed at downsizes / older people. Supporting facilities, different types - apartments, bungalows (gardens) etc. They do this very well in the US and other places.

I know of two developments in my area that were not built specifically for older people but have become popular with them. First ones moved in, created a like minded buzz etc, more followed. There seems to be a nice mix now, and they work very well.

I'm just a but frustrated that the answer to everything seems to we cannot do anything but wait until we can build more stuff. It's nonsense IMO.

Out of interest what sort of place did your in laws ultimately end up in?

hometruths · 01-04-2021 09:55PM

Cyrus wrote: »

Fair enough, I suppose worst case scenario the market turns in the middle of transactions and the downsizer has paid top dollar for the new home and isn’t prepared to take a bath on the one for sale. Thus prolonging the process and leaving them with an expensive loan that they hadn’t counted on.

But you are right we need to give people an alternative to staying in unsuitable accommodation and freeing it up .

Exactly, if they are not prepared to take the hit the interest will roll up and the state will get in the end. They will have a charge on both properties.

And stats show very clearly loans with low LTVs tend not to be the problematic ones.

From a risk profile it is complete opposite end of spectrum to FTB shared equity.

Taylor365 · 01-04-2021 10:04PM

schmittel wrote: »

The solutions to get this ball rolling are so maddeningly obvious I just cant understand why govt don't implement them.

500 million in bonds yielding a -0.9% or in empty apartments gaining 5-8% YoY.

Its the only game in town, gotta keep pumping!

Hubertj · 01-04-2021 10:06PM

schmittel wrote: »

I know of two developments in my area that were not built specifically for older people but have become popular with them. First ones moved in, created a like minded buzz etc, more followed. There seems to be a nice mix now, and they work very well.

I'm just a but frustrated that the answer to everything seems to we cannot do anything but wait until we can build more stuff. It's nonsense IMO.

Out of interest what sort of place did your in laws ultimately end up in?

They love gardening so an apartment was a non runner. They wanted a bungalow so stairs weren’t going to be an issue in the future (they are mid 70s but fit and active at present). They found a bungalow in monkstown eventually.

hometruths · 01-04-2021 10:11PM

And I'm not just talking about pensioners looking to move to gated communities with panic alarms.

There was an ask the finance expert thing on newstalk today, and a couple had sent in a what are our options query on this subject.

Mid 50s or so, 100k in savings, 500k fully paid off empty nest house in Dublin. They own a plot of land in the country, have planning, want to move from Dublin build in country, leave Dublin, live the quiet life etc.

They cannot get a mortgage to cover build cost for new house but they do not want to sell current house and rent if they can avoid it. Expert said basically they didn't have many other options since bridging no longer available. The idea that this is a risky profile is nuts.

I suspect there is a huge number of people in a similiar boat: irrespective of age or location, they'd quite like to move out of a house that could be put to more efficient use, and this is where government should be putting their resources.

hometruths · 01-04-2021 10:14PM

Hubertj wrote: »

They love gardening so an apartment was a non runner. They wanted a bungalow so stairs weren’t going to be an issue in the future (they are mid 70s but fit and active at present). They found a bungalow in monkstown eventually.

And if we unclogged the market I suspect they'd have found that bungalow a lot sooner.

I imagine the demand to move to a purpose build development for old people is pretty low, most are just looking for a more suitable property that they can future proof. Certainly that's my experience of my parents and those of my friends.

Cyrus · 01-04-2021 10:20PM

schmittel wrote: »

And if we unclogged the market I suspect they'd have found that bungalow a lot sooner.

I imagine the demand to move to a purpose build development for old people is pretty low, most are just looking for a more suitable property that they can future proof. Certainly that's my experience of my parents and those of my friends.

If they were available I think they would be popular they certainly appear to work well in the US and Canada, my brothers in laws have moved into one now and love it. Also removes the who will look after Mum / Dad issue.

hometruths · 01-04-2021 10:33PM

Cyrus wrote: »

If they were available I think they would be popular they certainly appear to work well in the US and Canada, my brothers in laws have moved into one now and love it. Also removes the who will look after Mum / Dad issue.

I kind of agree if, as Hubert says, its done well, and doesn't feel like a proxy for an old peoples home.

I guess my main point on this is we don't need to wait until we have purpose built developments for downsizers to encourage downsizing. There are plenty who will happily move into existing apartments/bungalows/mews etc if we could get the market moving.

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1