2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

jill_valentine · 01-04-2021 04:02PM

Claw Hammer wrote: »

That is a myth. Married men got higher pay than women or single men as well as more tax free allowances. Houses were not built to the same standard as modern times. There was no insulation, central heating or en-suite. Fitted kitchens were unknown. One socket to a room. Wooden single pane windows.

It also hasn't played out elsewhere. Off the top of my head, Norway has a higher proportion of female full time workers than we do and still has a higher rate of home ownership than we do. So clearly that's not the defining factor.

I would suggest instead that maybe one big influence was the shift in the 90s towards light industry and office commerce which meant we got access to a lot of GDP friendly work that paid well in the short term, but was quite a bit more precarious long term compared to established heavy industry work or agriculture. Retail work also became something done in short shifts juggled between people rather than a commonly unionised full time job somebody could do cradle to grave.

My aunts were able to buy homes based on shop and factory jobs in the 80s and early 90s, by the time I was working in the early 2000s a full 8 hour shift was a rarity in either because God forbid you'd pay for a full lunchbreak.

"Job Sharing" used to be considered a hallmark of how poor the economy was and now it's baked into basic business practice.

hometruths · 01-04-2021 04:17PM

fliball123 wrote: »

Look I am not doubting that covid has helped with the reduction in supply but it was going down pre-covid now weather that was time of the year, brexit or something else I dont know and we will never know.

To be fair, saying "Its hard to know if Covid made this worse" sounds very much like you are in fact doubting that Covid has impacted supply!

Daft don't seem to agree with you that supply was going down pre Covid. Quite the opposite in fact:

From Irish House Price Report Q1 2020

The transition from sharply rising prices in mid-2017 to slightly falling prices by early 2020 was a gradual one and related to ever-improving supply on the market, in particular of newly built family homes in the Greater Dublin Area.

Are there any sources (other than Marius) who agree with you that supply was falling pre Covid?

Marius34 · 01-04-2021 04:17PM

schmittel wrote: »

Where are you getting this from?

I'm following myhome adds, and collecting some data for my own stats. Since November 2019 number of adds started to go down comparing on annual basis.

DataDude · 01-04-2021 04:18PM

fliball123 wrote: »

Look I am not doubting that covid has helped with the reduction in supply but it was going down pre-covid now weather that was time of the year, brexit or something else I dont know and we will never know.

It's one data point. There's plenty of example of sharp downs in one or two quarters followed by ups in the following quarters. You don't project trends in the way that you're suggesting. If you gave the graph to anyone who analyses trends for a living (I do) as at Q4 2019 and asked them to interpret the data. They'd say supply has been pretty stable over the previous 4 years, perhaps marginally increasing, however there's an unusual dip off in Q4 2019, lets explore that a bit further and try to understand it. I suspect that's what MyHome did and concluded it was to do with Brexit and were anticipating a quick reversion in the following quarters.

You would absolutely not conclude that there is a general trend of supply going down at Q4 2019.

hometruths · 01-04-2021 04:19PM

Marius34 wrote: »

I'm following myhome adds, and collecting some data for my own stats. Since November 2019 number of adds started to go down comparing on annual basis.

I'll go with the daft report so.

timmyntc · 01-04-2021 04:19PM

Marius34 wrote: »

I'm following myhome adds, and collecting some data for my own stats. Since November 2019 number of adds started to go down comparing on annual basis.

*ads

And the actual published statistics would prove you wrong - so your own data is incorrect.

Marius34 · 01-04-2021 04:23PM

timmyntc wrote: »

*ads

And the actual published statistics would prove you wrong - so your own data is incorrect.

Yes, adds, I though we speak about supplies, in a matter for public sale? or what supplies you are looking for? if you speak about construction completion, yes than construction supplies was going up.

fliball123 · 01-04-2021 04:28PM

Marius34 wrote: »

I'm following myhome adds, and collecting some data for my own stats. Since November 2019 number of adds started to go down comparing on annual basis.

I was tracking this as well back then and there was a definite decreasing in the last quarter on myhome in 2019. As I say it could of been seasonal , it could of been Brexit looming large or a combo of both but what is sure is covid had not hit at that stage.

fliball123 · 01-04-2021 04:29PM

schmittel wrote: »

I'll go with the daft report so.

Does the daft report give the number of properties available?

Marius34 · 01-04-2021 04:29PM

schmittel wrote: »

I'll go with the daft report so.

Daft and Myhome follows same pattern, you won't find information that Dec 2019 - March 2020 there were more properties for sale, than a year prior.

fliball123 · 01-04-2021 04:31PM

DataDude wrote: »

It's one data point. There's plenty of example of sharp downs in one or two quarters followed by ups in the following quarters. You don't project trends in the way that you're suggesting. If you gave the graph to anyone who analyses trends for a living (I do) as at Q4 2019 and asked them to interpret the data. They'd say supply has been pretty stable over the previous 4 years, perhaps marginally increasing, however there's an unusual dip off in Q4 2019, lets explore that a bit further and try to understand it. I suspect that's what MyHome did and concluded it was to do with Brexit and were anticipating a quick reversion in the following quarters.

You would absolutely not conclude that there is a general trend of supply going down at Q4 2019.

Will you and schmittel read what I think it was that hit the numbers of property for sale in Q4 and I have already said that Covid hit supply hard there is no doubting this.

Marius34 · 01-04-2021 04:34PM

fliball123 wrote: »

I was tracking this as well back then and there was a definite decreasing in the last quarter on myhome in 2019. As I say it could of been seasonal , it could of been Brexit looming large or a combo ov both but what is sure is covid had not hit at that stage.

Yes, it's seasonal, it reaches highest peak in beginning of October, lowest in January. But even if we take out seasonality, decrease of property for sale started from November 2019, comparing on annual basis.

hometruths · 01-04-2021 04:36PM

Marius34 wrote: »

Daft and Myhome follows same pattern, you won't find information that Dec 2019 - March 2020 there were more properties for sale, than a year prior.

In both quarters they talk of a trend of falling prices because of a trend of increasing supply. Whilst I can accept there maybe have been a one off monthly drop in December 2019 due to some unknown anomaly, the idea that this was the start of a shift in supply trending downwards to the point we are at today, possibly unrelated to Covid, is utter nonsense.

fliball123 · 01-04-2021 04:36PM

Marius34 wrote: »

Yes, it's seasonal, it reaches highest peak in beginning of October, lowest in January. But even if we take out seasonality, decrease of property for sale started from November 2019, comparing on annual basis.

Well I reckon that Brexit could of had some impact here. But we will never know as Covid came in and blew everything out of the water.

fliball123 · 01-04-2021 04:39PM

schmittel wrote: »

In both quarters they talk of a trend of falling prices because of a trend of increasing supply. Whilst I can accept there maybe have been a one off monthly drop in December 2019 due to some unknown anomaly, the idea that this was the start of a shift in supply trending downwards to the point we are at today, possibly unrelated to Covid, is utter nonsense.

I dont think I ever said that?? I said that the turn in the amount of supply started happening back in Q4 in 2019 so it had nothing to do with Covid as Covid hit in Feb. I have said covid has hit supply hard, but could Brexit not of been playing apart pre-covid, how prevalent would we have been talking about Brexit had covid not entered the mind space. The fact is that we will never know what way the numbers would of went had Covid not been a factor.

DataDude · 01-04-2021 04:40PM

fliball123 wrote: »

Well I reckon that Brexit could of had some impact here. But we will never know as Covid came in and blew everything out of the water.

Post1: "Its hard to know if Covid made this worse"

Post5: "Covid came in and blew everything out of the water."

fliball123 · 01-04-2021 04:43PM

DataDude wrote: »

Post1: "Its hard to know if Covid made this worse"

Post5: "Covid came in and blew everything out of the water."

It is hard to know unless you have you have a time machine and went back to 2019 and blow up Wuhan so the virus never escapes and then play it out with 2020 dealing with the big news story of Brexit looming large? Did you use a time machine?? can I have a go of it please??? Or maybe yourself from a different dimension where these factors are in play told you.

hometruths · 01-04-2021 04:44PM

fliball123 wrote: »

I dont think I ever said that?? I said that the turn in the amount of supply started happening back in Q4 in 2019 so it had nothing to do with Covid as Covid hit in Feb. I have said covid has hit supply hard, but could Brexit not of been playing apart pre-covid, how prevalent would we have been talking about Brexit had covid not entered the mind space. The fact is that we will never know what way the numbers would of went had Covid not been a factor.

It certainly sounded like it to me, but no doubt I misunderstood what you were saying, again. My bad.

Marius34 · 01-04-2021 04:47PM

schmittel wrote: »

In both quarters they talk of a trend of falling prices because of a trend of increasing supply. Whilst I can accept there maybe have been a one off monthly drop in December 2019 due to some unknown anomaly, the idea that this was the start of a shift in supply trending downwards to the point we are at today, possibly unrelated to Covid, is utter nonsense.

Here you go, it's not only myhome, same daft report you linked:
"The total number of properties
available to buy on March 1 was
nearly 19,900, the first time since
the start of the series in 2007 that
availability was below 20,000."

hometruths · 01-04-2021 04:54PM

fliball123 wrote: »

It is hard to know unless you have you have a time machine and went back to 2019 and blow up Wuhan so the virus never escapes and then play it out with 2020 dealing with the big news story of Brexit looming large? Did you use a time machine?? can I have a go of it please??? Or maybe yourself from a different dimension where these factors are in play told you.

This is an old trope on this forum - nobody knows that for certain; you don’t have a crystal ball (or time machine) in this case.

It’s most often used to try and undermine somebody whose opinion a poster doesn’t agree, or occasionally as in this case, to try and claim an opinion so far fetched might true, just because nobody can definitively say otherwise without a crystal ball or time machine. Classic clutching at straws to avoid simply say, yep, I see I didn’t really think that one through.

I have neither a crystal ball nor a time machine but I am 100% certain that Covid has negatively impacted supply. Anybody who thinks otherwise is living in dreamland, never mind a different dimension.

DataDude · 01-04-2021 05:05PM

fliball123 wrote: »

It is hard to know unless you have you have a time machine and went back to 2019 and blow up Wuhan so the virus never escapes and then play it out with 2020 dealing with the big news story of Brexit looming large? Did you use a time machine?? can I have a go of it please??? Or maybe yourself from a different dimension where these factors are in play told you.

Final post on it, as I hate to dominate the thread on something stupid. I'm only doing it as you are the first person to call people out when they say things that you feel aren't based in fact.

I took the time to download the stats. Take a look at those numbers, and ask yourself, am I being reasonable to suggest that the figures in 2020/2021 are not the aberration and in fact it was Q4 2019 where this "downward trend" became evident. I don't think you need a masters in statistics to answer that one.

Q4 2016 20,875
Q4 2017 18,024
Q4 2018 21,700
Q4 2019 19,928
Q4 2020 14,390
Q1 2021 11,800

Browney7 · 01-04-2021 05:12PM

schmittel wrote: »

This is an old trope on this forum - nobody knows that for certain; you don’t have a crystal ball (or time machine) in this case.

It’s most often used to try and undermine somebody whose opinion a poster doesn’t agree, or occasionally as in this case, to try and claim an opinion so far fetched might true, just because nobody can definitively say otherwise without a crystal ball or time machine. Classic clutching at straws to avoid simply say, yep, I see I didn’t really think that one through.

I have neither a crystal ball nor a time machine but I am 100% certain that Covid has negatively impacted supply. Anybody who thinks otherwise is living in dreamland, never mind a different dimension.

Absence of proof doesn't equate to proof of absence and agree plenty people get slapped with this schtick around here

Villa05 · 01-04-2021 05:34PM

Deleted User wrote:

There may be small corrections. But IMO the only thing that would lead to any substantive change in the dynamics would be a mass withdrawal from Ireland of MNCs. And although many are highly conscious of the costs of doing business here (my own MNC revisits the Ireland salary uplift annually, and I know that there are grumblings at board level about it) they are not going anywhere any time soon

The last crash was not caused by mass withdrawal of mnc. There are plenty of other risks there

PropQueries · 01-04-2021 05:44PM

For those hoping that interest rates won’t rise in the near future as “we’re all in this together”, there was an interesting opinion piece in Bloomberg yesterday titled: “The ECB's Claims of Unity Are Woefully Misleading”

“There’s growing pressure to scale back the central bank's bond purchases. So European yields are likely to rise, sooner and faster than the ECB wants.”

I think it’s important as a big factor underpinning the current future predicted value of property in Ireland is that interest rates will remain at their current low levels for many years yet. There is a better than evens chance that they could rise before the year is out IMO

Link to article in Bloomberg here: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-31/the-ecb-s-claims-of-unity-on-bond-buying-are-woefully-misleading?srnd=opinion

Pussyhands · 01-04-2021 05:46PM

PropQueries wrote: »

For those hoping that interest rates won’t rise in the near future as “we’re all in this together”, there was an interesting opinion piece in Bloomberg yesterday titled: “The ECB's Claims of Unity Are Woefully Misleading”

“There’s growing pressure to scale back the central bank's bond purchases. So European yields are likely to rise, sooner and faster than the ECB wants.”

I think it’s important as a big factor underpinning the current future predicted value of property in Ireland is that interest rates will remain at their current low levels for many years yet. There is a better than evens chance that they could rise before the year is out IMO

Link to article in Bloomberg here: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-31/the-ecb-s-claims-of-unity-on-bond-buying-are-woefully-misleading?srnd=opinion

The rates didn't rise in a decade. No chance of it imo.

And if they do, they're not going to go up more than 2018 levels.

Marius34 · 01-04-2021 05:55PM

DataDude wrote: »

Final post on it, as I hate to dominate the thread on something stupid. I'm only doing it as you are the first person to call people out when they say things that you feel aren't based in fact.

I took the time to download the stats. Take a look at those numbers, and ask yourself, am I being reasonable to suggest that the figures in 2020/2021 are not the aberration and in fact it was Q4 2019 where this "downward trend" became evident. I don't think you need a masters in statistics to answer that one.

Q4 2016 20,875
Q4 2017 18,024
Q4 2018 21,700
Q4 2019 19,928
Q4 2020 14,390
Q1 2021 11,800

It's not difficult to see that after some increase of property for sale in 2018 H2/2019 H1, it followed by downwards trend from 2019 Q4.
Though I believe that Covid was the major player for further decrease since announcement of lockdown in 2020.

01-04-2021 06:12PM

PropQueries wrote: »

For those hoping that interest rates won’t rise in the near future as “we’re all in this together”, there was an interesting opinion piece in Bloomberg yesterday titled: “The ECB's Claims of Unity Are Woefully Misleading”

“There’s growing pressure to scale back the central bank's bond purchases. So European yields are likely to rise, sooner and faster than the ECB wants.”

I think it’s important as a big factor underpinning the current future predicted value of property in Ireland is that interest rates will remain at their current low levels for many years yet. There is a better than evens chance that they could rise before the year is out IMO

Link to article in Bloomberg here: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-31/the-ecb-s-claims-of-unity-on-bond-buying-are-woefully-misleading?srnd=opinion

No wories people in Ireland saved about 11 billions.
They will buy houses for cash at any price .
No matter that each one saved only 4K
Just because they did not take 1500 euros loan from credit union for holiday in Spain.

Stark · 01-04-2021 06:17PM

Deleted User wrote: »

No wories people in Ireland saved about 11 billions.
They will buy houses for cash at any price .
No matter that each one saved only 4K
Just because they did not take 1500 euros loan from credit union for holiday in Spain.

This I wondered about.

I think it's one of the many tricks estate agents use to instil fear and panic buying. Using scary phrases like "war chests" to describe the extra savings people made during lockdown. Doesn't explain the crazy bids unless people were able to save twice their annual gross salary in the space of a year.

01-04-2021 06:29PM

Stark wrote: »

This I wondered about.

I think it's one of the many tricks estate agents use to instil fear and panic buying. Using scary phrases like "war chests" to describe the extra savings people made during lockdown. Doesn't explain the crazy bids unless people were able to save twice their annual gross salary in the space of a year.

Estate agents earn money telling people lies.That is the way they earn money.

Pussyhands · 01-04-2021 06:30PM

Just looking at the list of properties I tracked when looking for a place to rent in Dublin over 7 years ago.

Most expensive of 9 was a double ensuite for 425 per month

Cheapest was a large single room at 275 per month.

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1