2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Villa05

Villa05 wrote: »

Just a thought
Does social housing get stigmatised by the few noisy over the many decent estates and even within the few noisy estates it's the very few households responsible for the vast majority of trouble

Bad apples and empty vessels and all that wisdom etc

absolutely.
I have no issue with social housing, you can't pick your neighbours no matter where you live. I just meant to explain the type of house it was, I'm not for a second saying anything about the neighbours! I'm sure they are all 100%

Samuel T. Cogley

Villa05 wrote: »

Just a thought
Does social housing get stigmatised by the few noisy over the many decent estates and even within the few noisy estates it's the very few households responsible for the vast majority of trouble

Bad apples and empty vessels and all that wisdom etc

Absolutely it's a small number of people. But I defy anyone to show me the instance of these people is the same or more by private owners. I'm not saying you can't get an asshat of a private owner, just the likelihood is much lower.

And before anyone starts I happily live on an ex-corpo estate with plenty of social housing still in it (bought back at enormous cost). Even they get a bit worried when the council buys a new place or there's a new tenant put in.

Villa05

Samuel T. Cogley wrote:

Absolutely it's a small number of people. But I defy anyone to show me the instance of these people is the same or more by private owners. I'm not saying you can't get an asshat of a private owner, just the likelihood is much lower.

bubblypop wrote:

absolutely. I have no issue with social housing, you can't pick your neighbours no matter where you live. I just meant to explain the type of house it was, I'm not for a second saying anything about the neighbours! I'm sure they are all 100%

The reason I say this is the policy of having social housing mixed in almost all new estates at great cost.

If the isuue is the minority, spreading social housing does not address the isuue of problem estates

The issue is the failure to deal effectively with those that are causing trouble.

TheSheriff

bubblypop wrote: »

Ah stop! I'm watching the market around there for ages, any house on the navan road is a lot more desirable, bigger house, bigger garden, better location.
It is done lovely, but that's crazy money for what it is.

Edit, don't know what the bidding is, but there must be huge interest, the asking price has gone up by 45,000 euro!

Out of interest, what do you think this is worth?

Samuel T. Cogley

Villa05 wrote: »

The reason I say this is the policy of having social housing mixed in almost all new estates at great cost.

If the isuue is the minority, spreading social housing does not address the isuue of problem estates

The issue is the failure to deal effectively with those that are causing trouble.

I personally think it should be spread out, you avoid ghettos. However there absolutely should be better ways of dealing with those causing trouble. In the UK housing associations work directly with the Police to shut down dealing for example.

Villa05

Villa05 wrote: »

The reason I say this is the policy of having social housing mixed in almost all new estates at great cost.

If the isuue is the minority, spreading social housing does not address the isuue of problem estates

The issue is the failure to deal effectively with those that are causing trouble.

If you have a problem neighbour who is a social tenant, you have avenues to deal with the problem.
If your problem neighbour owns their house, you're stuck with them.
And believe me there is plenty of issues between neighbours!

TheSheriff

TheSheriff wrote: »

Out of interest, what do you think this is worth?

Honestly? I would think 395, hundred less then the asking price.

Browney7

bubblypop wrote: »

Honestly? I would think 395, hundred less then the asking price.

Half a mill for a 2 bed (albeit a well finished and good size one) in Cabra is very much "call it off" territory. Fair play to them if they get it

TheSheriff

Browney7 wrote: »

Half a mill for a 2 bed (albeit a well finished and good size one) in Cabra is very much "call it off" territory. Fair play to them if they get it

Agree, probably pushing it, but I think they'll get it + more.

TheSheriff

TheSheriff wrote: »

Agree, probably pushing it, but I think they'll get it + more.

they will, for sure!

Littleredcar

RichardAnd wrote: »

This probably would work, but virtual viewings in and of themselves are highly disruptive. I called an estate agent last week about a house in Coolock that was listed for 240k on a Friday evening. By Tuesdays (when I called), the highest big was 298k, and apparently no one had yet seen it.

The agent told me that I could make a bid to see the house, thus one can assume that many of the bids that pushed up the price were simply people who wanted to see the house and had no intention of buying. There is indeed a supply issue, but this is simply confounding the problem. I'm not one to moralise, but this is not what I would consider to be an ethical business practice, but I digress....

My worry is that estate agents, at least those in Dublin, will not simply end the "bid to view" method as it is forcing up prices, even if physical viewing are permitted.

EDIT: incidentally, I asked the agent above what was required to make a bid, and he told me that he could accept it over the phone. When I asked him whether he wished me to provide proof of funds, he said that it wasn't necessary to make an offer. Hmm....

Where in coolock are you looking

optogirl

Browney7 wrote: »

Half a mill for a 2 bed (albeit a well finished and good size one) in Cabra is very much "call it off" territory. Fair play to them if they get it

This one has broken me. When we got approved last September we were confident we could find a decent house in Cabra for 320. Now we are resigned to staying renting because we just can't buy something that doesn't need another 50k worth of work to make it habitable. At least our rent is predictable but if the landlord decides now is the time to sell, and why wouldn't he, we're screwed.

RichardAnd

Littleredcar wrote: »

Where in coolock are you looking

I'm actually not. Coolock is reasonably close to my parents, and the house was in an okay area, so I thought to call to see what was happening with it. I'm not really looking to buy just now as I see no value for money and I'm not in a hurry.

The asking price for houses in that area tends to be around 250, or it was a few weeks ago. If they sold for that, I would say that it's a fair price, but I'd wager that they're going for closer to 300k at the moment.

Littleredcar

RichardAnd wrote: »

I'm actually not. Coolock is reasonably close to my parents, and the house was in an okay area, so I thought to call to see what was happening with it. I'm not really looking to buy just now as I see no value for money and I'm not in a hurry.

The asking price for houses in that area tends to be around 250, or it was a few weeks ago. If they sold for that, I would say that it's a fair price, but I'd wager that they're going for closer to 300k at the moment.

I’m selling in the area I went sale agreed ages ago but no contracts signed and disaster . I’m not looking at houses much smaller on same area going for a lot more . I’ve my own home to sell in same area but prices pushing up will shortly push me out of market

Villa05

Samuel T. Cogley wrote:

I personally think it should be spread out, you avoid ghettos. However there absolutely should be better ways of dealing with those causing trouble. In the UK housing associations work directly with the Police to shut down dealing for example.

Spread out is one thing, but paying up to three quarters of a million for a 2 bed unit for social/affordable is nuts.
It is the definition of anti affordable

There are limits on HAP payment, there should also be limits on social/affordable

RichardAnd

Littleredcar wrote: »

I’m selling in the area I went sale agreed ages ago but no contracts signed and disaster . I’m not looking at houses much smaller on same area going for a lot more . I’ve my own home to sell in same area but prices pushing up will shortly push me out of market

That sounds horrible. It's reprehensible to agree to buy something without following through on the agreement.

Are you considering putting the place back on the market? If the buyer to be is dragging his heels, it seems best just to cut the loss and start over.

Littleredcar

RichardAnd wrote: »

That sounds horrible. It's reprehensible to agree to buy something without following through on the agreement.

Are you considering putting the place back on the market? If the buyer to be is dragging his heels, it seems best just to cut the loss and start over.

I think I’m going to have to . Picked this buyer for a quick sale 🙄. Little did I know

standardg60

bubblypop wrote: »

Ah stop! I'm watching the market around there for ages, any house on the navan road is a lot more desirable, bigger house, bigger garden, better location.
It is done lovely, but that's crazy money for what it is.

Edit, don't know what the bidding is, but there must be huge interest, the asking price has gone up by 45,000 euro!

It went straight up after the feature in the Irish Times, which are just promotions nowadays.
I remember when the 'we say' bit always alluded to a genuine negative of the featured property, amazing what a bit of threatened litigation achieves!

standardg60

KBH2020 wrote: »

We are looking in Dublin and I think what is happening currently is people who would normally be looking to buy a house in the 500-600k bracket are now making bids in the 400-500k bracket, likewise people in the 400-500k bracket are now looking in the 300-400k bracket and this is all because of the limited supply and the desperation to secure a property. I can't think of any other explanation as to how houses are getting offers so high above the asking price. I believe the majority of people normally max out their budget when buying a property to get the best property they can afford.

I read something last year that said the average deposit in Dublin was approx 85K for the past few years. I am not sure if this is massively skewed by people who have large inheritances rather than savings but I imagine a lot of people across the country do have large deposits, whether saved or inherited. Of course Covid has contributed greatly to savings for a lot of people who were in the market to buy.

It is mind boggling though. I have been saving since 2015, myself and partner living with my parents for 1.5 years (always planned to go for AIP Jan 2021), we have been saving majority of our income each month for this entire time, we worked very hard to get two promotions each..got the AIP we needed and now we feel we are priced out of the type of house we had hoped to buy. Extremely frustrating and difficult after the last year as well. There will be a lot of people locked out of the market completely because of this and I can't even imagine how they must feel.

I think bidding will calm a bit with supply and in person viewings but don't know when

That's a very plausible reading of the current market and i feel for your situation.
One thing in your post reminded me of a letter to the Readers Digest many years ago. The correspondent was telling of a letter they'd received from their bank agreeing to an increase to their credit card limit. It contained the following quote: 'please remember that this is a limit and not a target'.

Very few people follow this advice, hold tight.

Hubertj

standardg60 wrote: »

It went straight up after the feature in the Irish Times, which are just promotions nowadays.
I remembers when the 'we say' bit always alluded to a genuine negative of the featured property, amazing what a bit of threatened litigation achieves!

I vaguely remember the “we say” bit..... are you saying they dropped that due to legal action, or threat of?!?

PropQueries

Looks like the mindset changeover of our city from retail and office use to residential use has started with Hammerson quadrupling the amount of residential space planned for their site at the Carlton cinema on O’Connell Street.

Makes sense. I would guess many of the owners of the buildings in the city will or probably have already started this conversion, especially as many of them are probably owned by foreign funds at this stage.

Just from a simple maths perspective. Convert the above retail space to residential and lease them to the council and they can add millions of euro to the value of their properties at very little cost.

For example, spend c. €200k converting three floors to high-end 10 one bed apartments, lease them to the council at €1,000 a month and the value of a regular city centre property jumps by €2 million at a yield of 5%.

Win win for all involved and I reckon thousands of these will be entering the market in the city centre in the next 12 months without anyone noticing IMO

Link to article in The Sunday Times here: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hammerson-deals-blow-retail-dublin-central-site-gqkl3qc2v

Hubertj

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/the-lake-house-toormore-goleen-cork/4492511

I think This is lovely in every way. Very nice house and amazing scenery. Would be nice to wake up to that view every morning, well in the summer at least!

TheSheriff

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/the-lake-house-toormore-goleen-cork/4492511

I think This is lovely in every way. Very nice house and amazing scenery. Would be nice to wake up to that view every morning, well in the summer at least!

The other half sent me this the other day, gorgeous house, lovely views.

Will sell quickly I imagine

Edit; I should add, we are from that direction, it's quite isolated, you'd want to be looking for that rural lifestyle

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Just a thought
Does social housing get stigmatised by the few noisy over the many decent estates and even within the few noisy estates it's the very few households responsible for the vast majority of trouble

Bad apples and empty vessels and all that wisdom etc

That would be the case based on my own experiences growing up in Dublin during the 90s. There were 2 social housing estates close to where I lived - 1 had a bad reputation based in the behaviour of 3-4 families, the other had no reputation at all.

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

I think This is lovely in every way. Very nice house and amazing scenery. Would be nice to wake up to that view every morning, well in the summer at least!

Was that house on one of Dermot Bannons programs, not room to improve, but a program moreso on innovative design

treenytru

Villa05 wrote: »

Was that house on one of Dermot Bannons programs, not room to improve, but a program moreso on innovative design

Same area but looks like different house

https://www.irishexaminer.com/property/homeandoutdoors/arid-40069979.html

Seeds

How does everyone think the Country reopening will affect prices?

Will we see a lot more house come on the market?

Will we start to see financial repercussions from covid. From my point of view, I am better off financially now then this time last year.
I just cant help thinking that we will see some negative effects once the government stops the handouts.

yagan

Seeds wrote: »

How does everyone think the Country reopening will affect prices?

Will we see a lot more house come on the market?

Will we start to see financial repercussions from covid. From my point of view, I am better off financially now then this time last year.
I just cant help thinking that we will see some negative effects once the government stops the handouts.

I do wonder if Covid will have brought forward a few years of executor sales?

Plus if I'd been living isolated as an elderly during this last year I'd be seriously thinking about moving to some kind of assisted living arrangement where you could have your own front door but with help on call.

TheSheriff

Seeds wrote: »

How does everyone think the Country reopening will affect prices?

Will we see a lot more house come on the market?

Will we start to see financial repercussions from covid. From my point of view, I am better off financially now then this time last year.
I just cant help thinking that we will see some negative effects once the government stops the handouts.

I got a PM last May (2020) telling me I was a horrible person as I openly stated we are in a better place financially because of covid.

I expect things to stagnate for the next few years, there is huge demand and contrary to what some say, we have a well documented housing crisis in areas people want to live.

Expect houses which are commutable to cities, on a train, luas or dart and with SPACE to comfortably work at home a few days per week to slightly increase. This is where future demand will orientate towards IMO.

The apartments in the city centre could suffer falls, those high earners in tech etc. are most likely heading to the city suburbs, rather than the beaches of wexford.

Disclaimer: everyone has been wrong so far

PropQueries

Seeds wrote: »

How does everyone think the Country reopening will affect prices?

Will we see a lot more house come on the market?

Will we start to see financial repercussions from covid. From my point of view, I am better off financially now then this time last year.
I just cant help thinking that we will see some negative effects once the government stops the handouts.

My opinion would be that once the state pulls back on their house purchases by mid year (due to no money), the public will see there is no private sector demand for any of the new builds or executor sales entering the market.

How do I know this? Common sense. Google news stories over the past 3 years of queues of people looking to buy or rent and you will find very very very few. A couple of small estate agent rent-a-queue stories published but that’s it.

There’s no demand in my opinion and covid has done a very good job of covering up this lack of demand and once covid is over, it will be clear for all to see IMO

Lots and lots of “anecdotal” news stories of a shortage of housing but everyone who wants a home can already have a home of their own anywhere in the state (incl. South Dublin) and once the state is forced to pull back from their interference and potential sellers realise that if a private person doesn’t buy or rent their house, the state won’t buy or rent it either, it’s game over and prices and rents will plummet IMO