2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

It'll be one of two solutions.

Either we'll see people earning €50k+ receiving HAP or even worse they'll introduce some sort of "Nursing Ireland" loan where they generously allow frontline workers in Dublin borrow up to their eye balls with 6x salary loans to thank them for all their great work they do!

Worryingly I think your Nursing Ireland idea is exactly the sort of wheeze the govt would push.

1percent

bubblypop wrote: »

I understand what his point is, my point is I would prefer that people working in these services in dublin, live in Dublin.
Minecraft nurse or teacher can work in limericks obviously. A Garda just out of templemore has no say as to where they are stationed.
These people should be able to afford a home in the areas they work, but instead we see the state pay to house people who don't work, in the city.

Calling people morons for paying the rent they have to is a terrible reflection on your character tbh.

I would share several of your ambitions for better better resource allocations a better world ect. but sadly 15,000 years of human civilization would suggest that utopia is not around the corner, it could get better and it could get worse but in the long term we tend to incrementally better, this is why I feel everyone should be making life choices for themselves and their betterment based on the reality that is around them.

I take your point on name calling, what are your thoughts on using "financial illiterate"? Single people have huge flexibility on rent in dublin, single rooms for sub 500 galore so there is no excuse for a single person paying 50% in rent, that is a lifestyle choice.

Families i will admit are a more difficult situation with schoolsand the space requirements so I would not include them in the above statement

1percent

hi! wrote: »

Yes a nurse working in Beaumont could just move to Limerick. But that nurse my have years of training and be highly skilled in looking after people with brain injuries seen as that’s where people from all over the country are transported to with brain injuries. But I guess those people can look after themselves after major brain surgery

Yes and in this case that nurse, I imagine, would not get the same job in limerick and has to work in dublin, her/his colleague who has transferable skills can move if s/he so chooses to.

Like wise both nurses could stop working have a couple of kids and get a council house and be on the pigs back according to some. Its horses for courses, if you can, and you want to why not?

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Worryingly I think your Nursing Ireland idea is exactly the sort of wheeze the govt would push.

I have an idea. Can’t believe nobody thought of it before me. What if the local authorities built houses at cost and offered them for sale at affordable prices. Some priority would have to be given to essential workers such as nurses, Gardaí, etc.
Better get onto Eoghan Murphy. I’m a genius.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

easy access to cheap credit. Who’d have thought it.

Its still not easy access to the mortgage part. Have you tried to get a mortgage from a bank lately ?

Marius34

bubblypop wrote: »

Starting salary in my job was approx 22,000 pounds. 3 bed semis in many parts of dublin could be bought starting 50,000 up.

luckily the internet was there already, to confirm that this is just an individual gossips, far from the actual market.

Just a random one example, there are multiple different sources, all contradicts what you saying, and draw a fairly similar picture:

"The average house these days costs just under £125,000 pounds. In Dublin the average price is £165,000 and the figures are still going up. According to the latest Irish Permanent/ESRI survey, the prices are rising faster this year than they were last, contradicting any earlier reports that house prices were beginning to level off or even drop in certain areas. The survey claims that, for the first six months of this year, house prices in Ireland rose by 10.4%. This compares to 7.3% over the same period in 1999."

https://www.rte.ie/news/2000/0706/7781-housing/

Marius34

Marius34 wrote: »

luckily the internet was there already, to confirm that this is just an individual gossips, far from the actual market.

Just a random one example, there are multiple different sources, all contradicts what you saying, and draw a fairly similar picture:

"The average house these days costs just under £125,000 pounds. In Dublin the average price is £165,000 and the figures are still going up. According to the latest Irish Permanent/ESRI survey, the prices are rising faster this year than they were last, contradicting any earlier reports that house prices were beginning to level off or even drop in certain areas. The survey claims that, for the first six months of this year, house prices in Ireland rose by 10.4%. This compares to 7.3% over the same period in 1999."

https://www.rte.ie/news/2000/0706/7781-housing/

The average price!
Which includes mansions in dalkey and howth. Ordinary 3 bed semis in decent areas around Dublin were bought from 50,000 pounds, I know because me and many of my friends bought them.

Browney7

What's the story with mortgage exemptions at present? Do you have to be down along the bidding process and then apply or do you get allocated them pre bidding? With the chronic lack of supply, if banks are putting out exemptions to the 3.5 multiple at the same time as little supply it could explain some of the movement in Q1.

Marius34

bubblypop wrote: »

The average price!
Which includes mansions in dalkey and howth. Ordinary 3 bed semis in decent areas around Dublin were bought from 50,000 pounds, I know because me and many of my friends bought them.

Yes we know that average skew the data, but is not that far of from the Median, it can 10,20 or 30% in difference, but not a few times. Even back then majority of properties in Dublin would have been 3 bedroom houses, and not mansions.

Clonee in 1999, 3 bed new builds were ~125K. Don't say that Clonee was an outlier of high end area.
https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/clonee-three-beds-starting-at-125-950-1.223071

For 50K, you would have got only small 2 bed (80sqm) house in areas around Ballymun, Tallaght, etc.

Shankill, sandyford, lucan, blanchardstown.
Areas that we bought houses.

Marius34

bubblypop wrote: »

Shankill, sandyford, lucan, blanchardstown.
Areas that we bought houses.

Here you go 2000 Lucan, Blanchardstown:
https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/first-time-buyers-face-tough-choices-1.231429

"People working in or near Dublin still face tough choices if they want to buy their first house in the first year of the 21st century. With a few exceptions, people with little more than £100,000 to spend will have to choose between buying a "commuter home" in a country town up to 50 miles outside the capital, or buying a small city centre apartment or a former local authority house in a not-so-popular area of the city.

But it is worth looking hard at west Dublin - Blanchardstown, Huntstown, Hartstown, Clonsilla, Lucan - before deciding to head for hills. Three-bed semidetached houses built around 15 years ago are selling for between £100,000 and £115,000; more-recently built houses with modern features, such as en suite bathrooms, can be bought for £120,000-plus."

DataDude

Browney7 wrote: »

What's the story with mortgage exemptions at present? Do you have to be down along the bidding process and then apply or do you get allocated them pre bidding? With the chronic lack of supply, if banks are putting out exemptions to the 3.5 multiple at the same time as little supply it could explain some of the movement in Q1.

We went with a broker and were told you can only get exemptions after going sale agreed. My friend, who’s on a lower income, applied directly with the same bank a week later and got 4.2x within a couple of days. Due to the very low volume of sales this year, exemptions seem incredibly easy to get at the minute from what I’ve heard.

enricoh

Our corporation tax is in the crosshairs from all sides it seems. Gonna need a good houdini act to get away unscathed from all threats.

Surely someone must be whispering in the governments ear to close the purse strings to see how it pans out, or will they keep on trucking and keep the property market alive?!

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/biden-s-global-minimum-tax-rate-carries-big-dangers-for-ireland-1.4525075?mode=amp

Omg I have no idea why you are arguing with me, I'm merely stating what I lived through.
Houses were bought from 50,000 pounds, second hand obviously. Personally, I bought at 67,500 & sold in 2007 for 445,000 euros. a 3 bed semi in South dublin.
That was pretty typical of all my graduating class. My best friend & her husband sold a tiny 3 bed in bray in 2008, bought for around 154000 in 2002, & build a mansion in the country with no mortgage.
This is not new information, it was quite normal occurrence.

Now, I don't care if you don't believe me, and I don't think there's much point in us arguing off topic about this.

Hubertj

enricoh wrote: »

Our corporation tax is in the crosshairs from all sides it seems. Gonna need a good houdini act to get away unscathed from all threats.

Surely someone must be whispering in the governments ear to close the purse strings to see how it pans out, or will they keep on trucking and keep the property market alive?!

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/biden-s-global-minimum-tax-rate-carries-big-dangers-for-ireland-1.4525075?mode=amp

That’s the US starting position. I believe it will come in at around 15% which is what has been mooted for the last few years. Even if agreement is arrived at this year, implementation will take some time.

Marius34

bubblypop wrote: »

Omg I have no idea why you are arguing with me, I'm merely stating what I lived through.
Houses were bought from 50,000 pounds, second hand obviously. Personally, I bought at 67,500 & sold in 2007 for 445,000 euros. a 3 bed semi in South dublin.
That was pretty typical of all my graduating class. My best friend & her husband sold a tiny 3 bed in bray in 2008, bought for around 154000 in 2002, & build a mansion in the country with no mortgage.
This is not new information, it was quite normal occurrence.

Now, I don't care if you don't believe me, and I don't think there's much point in us arguing off topic about this.

I don't really want to arguing your case, but rather I argue popular perception that affordability got worst in current property market by multiple times, you are not the first one to state it here:

bubblypop wrote: »

You're still ignoring the fact that 20 years ago a house cost 2/3 times a salary, now it costs 10 times the salary.

Which is simply just a popular gossips, and not a fact. If someone tries to dig in it, analyze the actual market of that times market, would find out that it's long way from actual facts.

Note, I don't argue that affordability got worst since 2000, but simply as usual, it just highly exaggerated.

L1011

I think we're suffering from the common problem of thinking the 80s were 20 years ago still. When 2001 was. Rather horrifying when you're in your 30s, but reality.

House for 3* salary was late 1980s

And yet I and many of my friends bought house for 2/3 times our salaries in 99/2000/2001

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

Its still not easy access to the mortgage part. Have you tried to get a mortgage from a bank lately ?

No I haven't. But plenty of other people seem to be getting them just fine:

New figures from Banking & Payments Federation Ireland show that the number of mortgages approved rose by 8.8% in February on a monthly basis and by 3.9% compared with the same time last year.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0325/1206050-mortgage-approvals/

Villa05

L1011 wrote:

I think we're suffering from the common problem of thinking the 80s were 20 years ago still. When 2001 was. Rather horrifying when you're in your 30s, but reality.

L1011 wrote:

House for 3* salary was late 1980s

What changed in 96, thats when the last bubble really started. Double digit increases right through to 01.

I thought mortgage rules were 3.5 x 1 income plus 1.5 2nd income up to the mid 90s

jill_valentine

Out of interest, I was curious to compare like with like and can't find a figure - can anybody find a median Irish salary for 2000ish?

I can find loads of stuff referencing it but not the figure itself.

Marius34

jill_valentine wrote: »

Out of interest, I was curious to compare like with like and can't find a figure - can anybody find a median Irish salary for 2000ish?

I can find loads of stuff referencing it but not the figure itself.

Average Weekly:


https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-hes/hes2015/aiw/

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

The UK (our primary destination whenever we go bust), is moving full steam ahead. They will be re-opening a lot sooner than many other EU countries (incl. Ireland) because of the genius move that was Brexit.

They have a large self-sustaining economy and given how small our population is, they can soak up any number of unemployed people we can offer them IMO

You might as well sell your house now before it drops 75% and move to the UK if you think it is that great...It’s not like the have any housing issues

Timing belt

Villa05 wrote: »

What changed in 96, thats when the last bubble really started. Double digit increases right through to 01.

I thought mortgage rules were 3.5 x 1 income plus 1.5 2nd income up to the mid 90s

People started earning more money

Geuze

Villa05 wrote: »

What changed in 96, thats when the last bubble really started. Double digit increases right through to 01.

I thought mortgage rules were 3.5 x 1 income plus 1.5 2nd income up to the mid 90s

After we joined EMU in 1999, interest rates fell a lot.

JimmyVik

Villa05 wrote: »

What changed in 96, thats when the last bubble really started. Double digit increases right through to 01.

I thought mortgage rules were 3.5 x 1 income plus 1.5 2nd income up to the mid 90s

That would be around when women really started coming into the workforce.
Also the banks and building societies started dropping that saving with them for 2 years before they would give you a mortgage rule.
Interest rates were about 8% at that time too. Not long after interest rates started dropping like a stone.

JimmyVik

jill_valentine wrote: »

Out of interest, I was curious to compare like with like and can't find a figure - can anybody find a median Irish salary for 2000ish?

I can find loads of stuff referencing it but not the figure itself.

I remember I left Uni in 1997 and started a job on £16K. I thought that was very well paid at the time. More money that id ever seen.
The economy was booming at the time and getting hotter.
The next year I was on £20k and over the next 3 years my salary doubled again.
There was a massive boom on in Ireland.

timmyntc

On the idea of nurses or other poorly paid workers going to Limerick for de chape houses:

1: Dublin health system would collapse if all the nurses just left for cheaper property
2: Limerick prices would rise the same way Dublin prices have

It's a stupid idea which would only move the problem to another City.
Property prices are the problem - not frontline workers having the nerve to want to buy a property in the city they work.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

No I haven't. But plenty of other people seem to be getting them just fine:



https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0325/1206050-mortgage-approvals/

They arent really a lot of people have to jump through a lot of hoops. If your or your company are on any kind of pandemic payment forget about it as well. So while some are getting a mortgage they will have gone through a long process which will include having to reapply multiple times. Also approval is a lot different than actually going to the bank and asking for the money the banks are really nitpicking and IMO its good that they are

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

They arent really a lot of people have to jump through a lot of hoops. If your or your company are on any kind of pandemic payment forget about it as well. So while some are getting a mortgage they will have gone through a long process which will include having to reapply multiple times. Also approval is a lot different than actually going to the bank and asking for the money the banks are really nitpicking and IMO its good that they are

I'm struggling to keep up. You've been telling us that demand has rocketed as evidenced by the fact mortgage approvals have rocketed.

But now mortgage approvals don't really mean much because banks are nitpicking?

So does that mean that evidence of surge in demand doesn't mean much?