When will it all end?

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

It's also a given that the longer restrictions last, the more people will break them. At what point does it become a failure of policy rather than a failure of the people?

Post Christmas, I think harsh restrictions were the correct choice. If anything, I think they should have been even harsher, with more strict enforcement but, and this is the key part, for a shorter period of time. Short, harsh, proper lockdowns with periods of relative relaxation in between would be preferable to the not really lockdown but it might as well be for the majority of people we've been in for the majority of the last 6 months.

Given that the post Christmas lockdown was necessary from just a few weeks of relaxed restrictions, you’re talking about a few weeks off from restrictions which creates the conditions for necessary lockdown (harsh lockdown for a month or whatever you’d suggest is reasonable) then lift lots of restrictions for a few weeks and back to necessary harsh lockdown. And that’s assuming that very harsh lockdown can get the numbers down in that short time.

You might think that’s a better system, but it’s not a whole lot better than the system we have. Businesses wouldn’t be happy with unpredictable opening and closing. It’s probably a case of far away hills are greener. We even had loads of posters claiming they’d prefer the curfew system in France. I can absolutely bet my life that those people would not be happy with a 6pm curfew system. They might be slightly more or less happy, but not very different. But, far away hills...

The fact that the weather is warming means that we can afford to have more people flout the rules on occasion and still keep transmissions relatively stable and hopefully drop ICU numbers and hopefully have as many adults as possible vaccinated by winter. Then hope for the best next winter.

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Those few weeks involved a wildly irresponsible relaxation of restrictions. It should be no surprise that they resulted in a huge spike in cases. When I'm talking about a relaxation I'm not talking about anything approaching what we had at Christmas.



Maybe not for you. For someone in a new job in a county 5 hours from my family and friends with only my partner for company, our current system is becoming unbearable. I can't imagine what it's like for those living alone. Businesses mightn't be happy, but some of them would certainly be happier with opening and closing rather than our current stay closed for an undefined period of time model.



...

Do what kind of restrictions should they have imposed during the relaxed periods between harsher lockdowns?

Parachutes wrote: »

It ends when we don’t comply anymore. Scores of people have been partying in parks around England over the week but there was simply too many people for the police to do anything but point the finger and give a half shrug.

Things are moving in the right direction. I’ve been back and forth between Ireland and the UK since the start of this and people who were very afraid and followed restrictions to a tee during the first lockdown couldn’t give a fiddlers anymore. Apart from mandatory mask wearing in shops, very few are going along hook, line and sinker anymore. Especially with the good weather. Guards can’t be arsed enforcing it either.

All pubs and business could open tomorrow and that would be it. This farce of a media scare would be over.

Things are going in the right direction in people’s minds. They are starting to become wise to it.

Yep, all just open with no public liability insurance, what could go wrong......

Parachutes wrote: »

It would be reinstated fairly quick I can tell you......

Yeah, cause insurance companies are notorious for paying out when they don't have to.

sabat wrote: »

Yet another poster who joined in 2020, has no other interests than covid19, and writes in a style reminiscent of a government wonk. I can actually visualise someone in a conference room pointing at a slideshow saying this sentence.

Yeah, I'm a covid nerd. So what?
I know the data and I know what I'm talking about.

If you've like to have a conversation with someone that's misinformed, be my guest. There's plenty around.

Lundstram wrote: »

"Mobility data"

Another buzz word made up by people who like to fingerwag at the so called selfish pricks having the cheek to leave their homes.

It's two words, and it's used to describe data derived from the location of people's phones.

I'm not using it to "fingerwag". The opposite in fact. I'm saying that compliance is still pretty good.

Once again, Ireland's vaccine supply has been revised downwards, Minister Donnolly told the Dail that supply for April would be slightly under a million doses, when questioned further the figure became 860,000. Thats including the j+j supply, at this rate we will be going back to give the very elderly a booster shot before we are fully vaccinated.

Marcusm wrote: »

Earlier in the week they said 2m in April & May with more in May than April. Unless May is being scaled back too this seems like a consistent message with an average of 1m. It would always have to be slightly backended as the mass vaccinations are not starting today.

They also said that every adult in the country would have at least 1 vaccination by the end of June. That means 2nd week in July for all adults to have both jabs.
Was this another lie? Im really getting sick of them talking out of the other side of their mouths.

JimmyVik wrote: »

They also said that every adult in the country would have at least 1 vaccination by the end of June. That means 2nd week in July for all adults to have both jabs.
Was this another lie? Im really getting sick of them talking out of the other side of their mouths.

They didn't say everyone would have a vaccination by the end of June, they said would "be offered one" by the end of June, the offer could be for an appointment later than June.
Irish politics

Deleted User wrote: »

Exactly! Why should we be in a stricter lockdown for a much longer time than Belgium if our numbers in hospital and ICU are far lower??

Talk about a sledgehammer to crack a nut! Some counties have had no new cases for days in Ireland. This has being going on since 26th December FFS, today is 1st April........

We shouldn't follow any lead. We should take action for ourselves and give people some hope after the strictest and longest lockdown in the world. We also should have bought our separate supply of vaccine months ago. This country will be crippled, no construction, hundreds of thousands of jobs lost (including mine), 2 year backlog for public hospital appointments already and growing every single day...............................

Sorry, but that all sounds terrible.

We shouldn't follow any lead? ****ing awful idea to not learn from others.

As for the rest.. we can't compete with larger countries for supplies of vaccine. There is some construction going on. 80 to 100 thousand job losses is being predicted by the central bank. The backlog for hospital treatments will get even longer if we loosen restrictions further.

Sorry to hear about your own job.

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

No, that's asking me to spell out a detailed plan. This all stemmed from my post saying there's too much focus on what people are doing wrong rather than what government have done wrong. We've already drifted significantly from that point.

Asking me to outline what specific lockdown measures should be applied is absurd. I don't know. I don't claim to know. This is a bit like when people criticise a football manager and people respond with "what would you do better/who would you appoint instead?".

Ah, yeah but if you don’t claim to know how to do it better then how do you actually claim to know it wasn’t done well to begin with?

Maybe I gave you too much credit. I thought you had an actual idea which was more than a one-liner without any thought behind it.