Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

MerlinSouthDub · 31-03-2021 03:54PM

OwenM wrote: »

Did Nolan actually state that again? It's a f**king ridiculous statement, basically saying it's not growing at all or it's growing rapidly - we haven't a clue really.......

I'm no defender of NPHET but the case numbers have been bouncing around a bit. It is genuinely difficult to know what the R rate is in those circumstances. All Philip Nolan is doing is plugging the data into the models and the models are showing a range of possibilities for R. It's not that Philip Nolan doesn't know what R is right now, it's that the data model is telling him that it could be within a range from stable to growing quite quickly. There is nothing Philip Nolan can do about the data being noisy.

Hopefully, we will see gradual fall in case numbers this week, and a more certain estimate of R!

31-03-2021 03:54PM

Turtwig wrote: »

In their most recent letter they state the same thing. There is a large uncertainty over the R number at present. It's minimum estimate though is 1 which is concerning.

The letter actually goes into the details as why the current estimate is so varied. Worth a read imo.

Will shift a bit when they add in the last two days to the model

External Association · 31-03-2021 03:55PM

How we are progressing with vaccines mid April and cope with full return to school will tell a lot.

MerlinSouthDub · 31-03-2021 03:56PM

BlondeBomb wrote: »

Will we get swabs now or just numbers?

Don't know for sure, but we've gotten swabs every day bar Sundays and bank holidays so we should get them at some stage.

I never trust the daily case numbers, so I'm not going to read anything into today's case number until the swabs are published!

cjyid · 31-03-2021 03:56PM

Dr Ronan Glynn: “There is a critical window over the next 8 weeks where any significant increase in close contact is likely to lead to a significant fourth wave of infection in the range of that experienced in January 2021.”

TheDoctor · 31-03-2021 03:59PM

cjyid wrote: »

Dr Ronan Glynn: “There is a critical window over the next 8 weeks where any significant increase in close contact is likely to lead to a significant fourth wave of infection in the range of that experienced in January 2021.”

Of course it will Ronan, of course it will.....

Faugheen · 31-03-2021 04:00PM

Turtwig wrote: »

In their most recent letter they state the same thing. There is a large uncertainty over the R number at present. It's minimum estimate though is 1 which is concerning.

The letter actually goes into the details as why the current estimate is so varied. Worth a read imo.

They won’t read it.

Turtwig · 31-03-2021 04:01PM

Found that behaviour presentation very interesting.

Faugheen · 31-03-2021 04:01PM

Ah I see the armchair epidemiologists you said NPHET would be wrong about Christmas are out again.

Goldengirl · 31-03-2021 04:02PM

Excellent detailed presentation by D Phillip Nolan.

Faugheen · 31-03-2021 04:04PM

Corholio wrote: »

I thought Nolan was unnecessarily negative today. I understand he has to be cautious but he was fixed on the 500-600 a day cases when we've had two days of 300 and 400 cases with higher testing and low swabbing positivity percentage amounts.

He was explaining the modelling behind NPHET’s recommendations.

Included in that modelling was the impact of vaccines on the R number.

wadacrack · 31-03-2021 04:07PM

Zara King with her obligatory Wedding question. A clear sign that this pandemic is not yet over

ElTel · 31-03-2021 04:09PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Except cases have fallen since the mass vaccination centres opened.

What does that tell us - there really aren't legions of asymptomatic infections walking around, and symptomatic testing and contact tracing really is detecting most of the outbreaks

I think the close contact data from these positives is/was always the most important data to be gleaned from these pop up centres.

3% positivity from 7.5k tested with 3(say) close contacts gives 675 more to PCR test hopefully.

I'd guess positivity could be an order of magnitude lower for this group if most of the initial positives were truly asymptomatic. Am I way off/what would your guesstimate be?

BigMo1 · 31-03-2021 04:09PM

wadacrack wrote: »

Zara King with her obligatory Wedding question. A clear sign that this pandemic is not yet over

Out of curiosity, what was the answer? I'm due to be married end of July and hoping for the best.

redmgar · 31-03-2021 04:09PM

I'm guessing that a lot of them on here complaining about the restrictions didn't do a lot of socialising pre covid anyways. They seem to live on the internet.

Faugheen · 31-03-2021 04:13PM

wadacrack wrote: »

Zara King with her obligatory Wedding question. A clear sign that this pandemic is not yet over

I don’t see why people make such a fuss about this. It’s obvious that she has followers asking her about it otherwise she wouldn’t ask.

Plenty of people impacted by the small numbers for weddings. Just because it doesn’t impact you doesn’t mean you should throw your nose up at those it does impact.

jhegarty · 31-03-2021 04:16PM

Positive Swabs : 712
Positivity Rate : 3.38%
Tests : 21051

ednwireland · 31-03-2021 04:16PM

Faugheen wrote: »

I don’t see why people make such a fuss about this. It’s obvious that she has followers asking her about it otherwise she wouldn’t ask.

Plenty of people impacted by the small numbers for weddings. Just because it doesn’t impact you doesn’t mean you should throw your nose up at those it does impact.

lets been honest it aint going to be 300 anytime soon (or even 100)

wadacrack · 31-03-2021 04:17PM

Faugheen wrote: »

I don’t see why people make such a fuss about this. It’s obvious that she has followers asking her about it otherwise she wouldn’t ask.

Plenty of people impacted by the small numbers for weddings. Just because it doesn’t impact you doesn’t mean you should throw your nose up at those it does impact.

Repeating the same question and getting the same answer every time is infuriating for everyone involved. Hairdressers and Retail aren't asking when can we open under every opportunity at this press briefing . Theirs way more examples.

MerlinSouthDub · 31-03-2021 04:18PM

jhegarty wrote: »

Positive Swabs : 712
Positivity Rate : 3.38%
Tests : 21051

Yep. Never trust the case numbers!

Still, not bad numbers

Faugheen · 31-03-2021 04:18PM

ednwireland wrote: »

lets been honest it aint going to be 300 anytime soon (or even 100)

What about 25? 30? 35?

I don’t understand why people seem to get really annoyed by the question being asked.

KrustyUCC · 31-03-2021 04:19PM

jhegarty wrote: »

Positive Swabs : 712
Positivity Rate : 3.38%
Tests : 21051

Crap

In of themselves not bad figures

Was hoping for better considering the cases

igCorcaigh · 31-03-2021 04:19PM

jhegarty wrote: »

Positive Swabs : 712
Positivity Rate : 3.38%
Tests : 21051

That's quite the jump, although that's a very high level of testing too.

stephenjmcd · 31-03-2021 04:19PM

jhegarty wrote: »

Positive Swabs : 712
Positivity Rate : 3.38%
Tests : 21051

Not bad for a Wednesday from a very high number of tests.

Fair few to be reported tomorrow so

wadacrack · 31-03-2021 04:20PM

Faugheen wrote: »

What about 25? 30? 35?

I don’t understand why people seem to get really annoyed by the question being asked.

They get annoyed because of the repetition and everyone knows what the answer is going to be. Pretty specific question too.

igCorcaigh · 31-03-2021 04:21PM

Highest swab numbers in all of March.

ninebeanrows · 31-03-2021 04:21PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Yep. Never trust the case numbers!

Still, not bad numbers

Pretty much flat from last Wednesday. Not too bad but bump in announced cases likely tomorrow.

Faugheen · 31-03-2021 04:22PM

wadacrack wrote: »

Repeating the same question and getting the same answer every time is infuriating for everyone involved. Hairdressers and Retail aren't asking when can we open under every opportunity at this press briefing . Theirs way more examples.

She doesn’t ask at every briefing ffs.

There was announcement on restrictions just yesterday and nothing about weddings. It’s a fair question to ask because there are hundreds of families that are wondering what the story is.

Sweet.Science · 31-03-2021 04:24PM

Faugheen wrote: »

She doesn’t ask at every briefing ffs.

There was announcement on restrictions just yesterday and nothing about weddings. It’s a fair question to ask because there are hundreds of families that are wondering what the story is.

Exactly . Weddings have been on hold for a year now . It's a big issue for lots of people. And hotels themselves

31-03-2021 04:32PM

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Exactly . Weddings have been on hold for a year now . It's a big issue for lots of people. And hotels themselves

And all those who work in the events and wedding industry. Its very difficult to have your livelihood decimated. A lot of people forget about this when they dismiss the wedding related queries.

Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

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