2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

Villa05 · 31-03-2021 01:32PM

timmyntc wrote:

We should be paying back our govt debt. More crises will come down the line - we cant go for the conservative pay back as little as possible approach and kick the can down the road. Covid is just one such thing, I dont doubt that between now and 2035 there'll be another financial shock. We cant just keep borrowing forever.

Debt is good thing if you can get a return higher than the cost or saves in multiple terms

Housing is the obvious candidate
Renewable energy also as it generates income

Hubertj · 31-03-2021 01:33PM

The impending changes to corporation tax internationally has been discussed to death on this thread. It will impact Ireland medium term. MNCs have already factored this into their plans. Amazingly they continue to invest in Ireland even though the only reason they are here is for tax purposes but taxes are going to increase. I don’t understand it. Someone from boards should tell them before they make a terrible mistake.

timmyntc · 31-03-2021 01:37PM

fliball123 wrote: »

I believe we are paying it back as we go and it was the plan up until covid we had actually turned from borrowing to having a surplus in 2019. Sure get out of Covid first , get the economy rocking again and then yes I agree we should be paying this back at a rate higher than .

From that doc I linked, the govts plan pre covid was not to reduce the debt, but to grow GNI so that our GNI to debt ratio went from ~100% to 80%.

The plan is just to pay the interest, and grow the economy so the numbers look better. There is no ambition to pay back this debt and no contingency for our GNI shrinking. Infinite growth is the name of the game apparently

Pussyhands · 31-03-2021 01:38PM

Can anyone see house price increases in a years time?

I earn a decent sum but even if a partner of mine earned the same I'd still not be able afford a mortgage on a new semi D. Who the hell are these buyers? Are parents giving big sums of cash to kids?

fliball123 · 31-03-2021 01:39PM

timmyntc wrote: »

From that doc I linked, the govts plan pre covid was not to reduce the debt, but to grow GNI so that our GNI to debt ratio went from ~100% to 80%.

The plan is just to pay the interest, and grow the economy so the numbers look better. There is no ambition to pay back this debt and no contingency for our GNI shrinking. Infinite growth is the name of the game apparently

Yeah your right it was sure they were keeping the surplus for a rainy day fund..

fliball123 · 31-03-2021 01:40PM

Pussyhands wrote: »

Can anyone see house price increases in a years time?

I earn a decent sum but even if a partner of mine earned the same I'd still not be able afford a mortgage on a new semi D. Who the hell are these buyers? Are parents giving big sums of cash to kids?

It all depends I think the 2 main stats to keep your eye on are new supply coming on stream and net immigration. These 2 IMO will tell you what way prices will go in the future

TheSheriff · 31-03-2021 01:43PM

combat14 wrote: »

house prices absolutely soaring now again in the double digits - gosh the country must be experiencing some kind of economic boom with no economic shutdown and mass borrowing of governnent debt for people to be paying these prices for such poor quality homes

https://www.thejournal.ie/daft-report-3-5395912-Mar2021/

As terrible as it sounds, some sectors/people are experiencing an economic boom.

PropQueries · 31-03-2021 01:46PM

Hubertj wrote: »

The impending changes to corporation tax internationally has been discussed to death on this thread. It will impact Ireland medium term. MNCs have already factored this into their plans. Amazingly they continue to invest in Ireland even though the only reason they are here is for tax purposes but taxes are going to increase. I don’t understand it. Someone from boards should tell them before they make a terrible mistake.

If the pandemic showed us anything, it's that many of the service based multinationals can stay located here until the very last day that the tax advantages end and then ship all their employees to another state within 24 hours IMO

timmyntc · 31-03-2021 01:46PM

fliball123 wrote: »

Yeah your right it was sure they were keeping the surplus for a rainy day fund..

Ah yes the rainy day fund thats more than offset by the extra borrowing the govt did when that rainy day came.

if they wanted to spend the money on something as an investing (like housing or infrastructure) at least that I could understand, but letting money sit when you have massive debts and record low interest rates - I personally do not get it.

JimmyVik · 31-03-2021 01:47PM

Villa05 wrote: »

Yes but only in a properly functioning market. How can people paying up to 50% of income on rent afford to pay any further tax of any nature

Sure you would never get round to it then.
4 adults living in my parents house. Only one property tax between them.
A friend is living in his parents house with 3 sisters and both parents. Only one property tax between 6 of them.
The lady living next door alone has to pay the same all on her own.
You need to reform this at some stage.
If you keep waiting it gets harder to fix it.

cnocbui · 31-03-2021 01:51PM

JimmyVik wrote: »

Sure you would never get round to it then.
4 adults living in my parents house. Only one property tax between them.
A friend is living in his parents house with 3 sisters and both parents. Only one property tax between 6 of them.
The lady living next door alone has to pay the same all on her own.
You need to reform this at some stage.
If you keep waiting it gets harder to fix it.

You are suggesting a poll tax, not a property tax.

timmyntc · 31-03-2021 01:53PM

cnocbui wrote: »

You are suggesting a poll tax, not a property tax.

Yes, some kind of universal charge that we can use to fund social amenities, we can call it.. the universal social charge

fliball123 · 31-03-2021 01:58PM

JimmyVik wrote: »

Sure you would never get round to it then.
4 adults living in my parents house. Only one property tax between them.
A friend is living in his parents house with 3 sisters and both parents. Only one property tax between 6 of them.
The lady living next door alone has to pay the same all on her own.
You need to reform this at some stage.
If you keep waiting it gets harder to fix it.

We cant just keep taxing when you look at what you have to pay to live in this country we are paying out already for

Property tax
Income tax
USC
PRSI
Stamp duty
VAT
Motor Tax
Carbon Tax
Petrol/deisel
ESB/Oil/Gas/heat
Home Insurance
Life insurance
Car insurance
Food
Clothes
Creche fees
Toll bridge
DIRT
Capital Gains
TV license
School book/uniforms
mortgage/rent

How much more blood do you want from the stone?

cnocbui · 31-03-2021 01:59PM

PropQueries wrote: »

If the pandemic showed us anything, it's that many of the service based multinationals can stay located here until the very last day that the tax advantages end and then ship all their employees to another state within 24 hours IMO

You do not shift your work force in a day unless all they own fits in a carry-on size backpack. Any of your workforce who own property, cars, children and such, won't be moving for months, and probably only a fraction of them won't resign and stay put.

PropQueries · 31-03-2021 02:02PM

cnocbui wrote: »

You do not shift your work force in a day unless all they own fits in a carry-on size backpack. Any of your workforce who own property, cars, children and such, won't be moving for months, and probably only a fraction of them won't resign and stay put.

Stay put and do what? Deal with the banks sending weekly letters of demand for payment for the next 20 years. They will move to where the work is offered, no matter where it is IMO

fliball123 · 31-03-2021 02:04PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Stay put and do what? Deal with the banks sending weekly letters of demand for payment for the next 20 years. They will move to where the work is offered, no matter where it is IMO

I would take that 20 years of banks sending letters to demand payment on a property that they legally wont be able to take and live their rent free. As I pointed out there is plenty of work coming into this country this year alone but you conveniently did not respond to it

Villa05 · 31-03-2021 02:06PM

TheSheriff wrote:

As terrible as it sounds, some sectors/people are experiencing an economic boom.

We were at around 15% of potential FTB being able to purchase from the most recent figures on FTB mortgage drawdowns.

Lots of sectors are booming, but not necessarily booming sufficiently for employees to afford a home.
This is purely a supply for sale issue and will influence the next election much moreso than the last one

PropQueries · 31-03-2021 02:07PM

fliball123 wrote: »

I would take that 20 years of banks sending letters to demand payment on a property that they legally wont be able to take and live their rent free. As I pointed out there is plenty of work coming into this country this year alone but you conveniently did not respond to it

Add up the total number of jobs "announced" and then remove just one i.e. the 1,000 workers that the DAA has permanently removed.

"A total of 1,000 staff – or one-third of the DAA’s Ireland-based workforce – will have left the semi-State airport company within the next few weeks as it cuts its workforce in the wake of the pandemic."

Link to article in Irish Independent on 11th March 2021: https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/daas-job-cull-in-ireland-to-hit-1000-but-pay-to-be-restored-40185490.html

Brussels Sprout · 31-03-2021 02:08PM

Mad_maxx wrote: »

No , If the left has told us anything , its that the solution to government interference is always more government interference

This isn't America.

We have never had a left wing government in the history of the state. Every single government intervention in the property market, which in the past 30 years has always driven up prices, has been implemented by a centre-right party.

cnocbui · 31-03-2021 02:12PM

fliball123 wrote: »

We cant just keep taxing when you look at what you have to pay to live in this country we are paying out already for

Property tax
Income tax
USC
PRSI
Stamp duty
VAT
Motor Tax
Carbon Tax
Petrol/deisel
ESB/Oil/Gas/heat
Home Insurance
Life insurance
Car insurance
Petrol
Food
Clothes
Creche fees
Toll bridge
DIRT
Capital Gains
TV license

How much more blood do you want from the stone?

If this thread tells you anything it should be that there is a coterie of wannabe social engineers that think governments are an efficient utiliser of resources and are beneficient, rather than the inefficient wasteful cancers they actually are.

We have people presented with the most glaringly obvious nonsense of The state buying up housing and paying stupid money for it, and yet those self same people seem to think giving these clowns the remainder of the tiny amount of disposable income most are left with, is a socially great idea.

You don't get better services and societal improvements, you get more HSE middle managers being paid even more.

coolbeans · 31-03-2021 02:14PM

PropQueries wrote: »

If the pandemic showed us anything, it's that many of the service based multinationals can stay located here until the very last day that the tax advantages end and then ship all their employees to another state within 24 hours IMO

How on earth is a pharmaceutical company going to do that? You can't make stents, or pacemakers over Teams.

fliball123 · 31-03-2021 02:15PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Add up the total number of jobs "announced" and then remove just one i.e. the 1,000 workers that the DAA has permanently removed.

"A total of 1,000 staff – or one-third of the DAA’s Ireland-based workforce – will have left the semi-State airport company within the next few weeks as it cuts its workforce in the wake of the pandemic."

Link to article in Irish Independent on 11th March 2021: https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/daas-job-cull-in-ireland-to-hit-1000-but-pay-to-be-restored-40185490.html

ok and add in another 16496
https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/cc269-16496-new-jobs-created-by-enterprise-ireland-supported-companies-in-2020/

cnocbui · 31-03-2021 02:16PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Stay put and do what? Deal with the banks sending weekly letters of demand for payment for the next 20 years. They will move to where the work is offered, no matter where it is IMO

Have you ever sold up and moved with children from one country to another? I'm guessing you haven't. How many properties have you owned and sold? You know that takes months or years, right?

PropQueries · 31-03-2021 02:21PM

cnocbui wrote: »

Have you ever sold up and moved with children from one country to another? I'm guessing you haven't. How many properties have you owned and sold? You know that takes months or years, right?

Just like in 2008 and where the state threw the unemployed construction workers under the proverbial bus (i.e. they refused them social welfare because they were "self-employed" i.e. they basically told them to either starve or emigrate if I'm remembering correctly), the workers who the state will once again throw under the proverbial bus will leave the state even quicker IMO

PropQueries · 31-03-2021 02:24PM

fliball123 wrote: »

ok and add in another 16496
https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/cc269-16496-new-jobs-created-by-enterprise-ireland-supported-companies-in-2020/

How many of the employees of Enterprise Ireland client companies are currently only "employed" because of some Government Covid wage support scheme and not "officially" out of work permanently?

fliball123 · 31-03-2021 02:26PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Just like in 2008 and where the state threw the unemployed construction workers under the proverbial bus (i.e. they refused them social welfare because they were "self-employed" i.e. they basically told them to either starve or emigrate if I'm remembering correctly), the workers who the state will once again throw under the proverbial bus will leave the state even quicker IMO

OK are we comparing to 08 again

So now the self employed are entitled to social welfare
We have one of the most lucrative social welfare entitlements on the globe
So who are the workers being thrown under the bus this time and why would they leave such generous social welfare entitlements. This has all come about because of COVID is there any country on earth that has not been impacted by COVID? So where will they be going that is going to offer what Ireland offer in the way of welfare?

fliball123 · 31-03-2021 02:27PM

PropQueries wrote: »

How many of the employees of Enterprise Ireland client companies are currently only "employed" because of some Government Covid wage support scheme and not "officially" out of work permanently?

No one knows that yet and we wont know until covid is gone

PropQueries · 31-03-2021 02:34PM

fliball123 wrote: »

OK are we comparing to 08 again

So now the self employed are entitled to social welfare
We have one of the most lucrative social welfare entitlements on the globe
So who are the workers being thrown under the bus this time and why would they leave such generous social welfare entitlements. This has all come about because of COVID is there any country on earth that has not been impacted by COVID? So where will they be going that is going to offer what Ireland offer in the way of welfare?

The UK (our primary destination whenever we go bust), is moving full steam ahead. They will be re-opening a lot sooner than many other EU countries (incl. Ireland) because of the genius move that was Brexit.

They have a large self-sustaining economy and given how small our population is, they can soak up any number of unemployed people we can offer them IMO

fliball123 · 31-03-2021 02:39PM

PropQueries wrote: »

The UK (our primary destination whenever we go bust), is moving full steam ahead. They will be re-opening a lot sooner than many other EU countries (incl. Ireland) because of the genius move that was Brexit.

They have a large self-sustaining economy and given how small our population is, they can soak up any number of unemployed people we can offer them IMO

haha lets see how that plays out ..Genius really its been 3 months and already they are feeling the effects of Brexit and this will not be noticed until covid is gone. Auld Boris can blame Covid but once Covid is gone what will he blame.. and already there is a lot of talk of there being a 4th wave in the UK ..nothing is certain except that your doomsday scenario playing in your head if it does play out for Ireland then every other country will be impacted to some degree as well, including the UK

Billythekid19 · 31-03-2021 02:41PM

Pussyhands wrote: »

Can anyone see house price increases in a years time?

I earn a decent sum but even if a partner of mine earned the same I'd still not be able afford a mortgage on a new semi D. Who the hell are these buyers? Are parents giving big sums of cash to kids?

Nobody needs to save anymore for a new build. The governement is giving 30k in deposit for FTB's so not sure why people complain about affordability.

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1