2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

fliball123 · 31-03-2021 11:49AM

woejus wrote: »

I've had experience of seeing properties up for sale, make an offer, house never sells, no PPR. In one case EA told me it was part of an interfamily dispute, they got listing fees, we had our time wasted.

In this kind of market you could tell someone you need the cash to feed your crack habit and you'd still have offers out the door!

Yeah but you have to look at it from genuine sellers POV why should they have to give out details that could see their advantage go to the buyer? At the end of the day a seller just wants the highest price they can get

JimmyVik · 31-03-2021 11:50AM

6541 wrote: »

Okay so - Can you summarize what is actually going on and then what you predict will happen. Thanks.

Nobody can.
Property is one of those things we all think we know about, but we dont really.
Its a point in time game. Trying to predict the future is fun, but ultimately a meaningless exercise.

JimmyVik · 31-03-2021 11:52AM

Pussyhands wrote: »

What's happening if you see a property go up on Daft but it's gone within a week but then weeks and weeks later there's still nothing on the PPR.

I saw a lovely spot I'm sure it was pre Christmas and it was taken down within a week. I don't see it anywhere on PPR.

Our neighbours house was sold over a year ago now and hasnt appeared on the PPR.

combat14 · 31-03-2021 12:07PM

house prices absolutely soaring now again in the double digits - gosh the country must be experiencing some kind of economic boom with no economic shutdown and mass borrowing of governnent debt for people to be paying these prices for such poor quality homes

https://www.thejournal.ie/daft-report-3-5395912-Mar2021/

Villa05 · 31-03-2021 12:12PM

The_Conductor wrote:

It depends entirely on which small town you have in mind- some of our regional towns are worse traffic wise than much of Dublin- and if you want the city with the most expensive average price of housing in Ireland- its Galway, not Dublin.

Daft report showing Galway more expensive than Cork and over 30% more expensive than limerick

Both Cork and limerick average wage higher than Galway

Cyrus · 31-03-2021 12:16PM

combat14 wrote: »

house prices absolutely soaring now again in the double digits - gosh the country must be experiencing some kind of economic boom with no economic shutdown and mass borrowing of governnent debt for people to be paying these prices for such poor quality homes

https://www.thejournal.ie/daft-report-3-5395912-Mar2021/

why are you assuming they are poor quality homes?

PropQueries · 31-03-2021 12:21PM

If we assume that a significant percentage (if the the state is excluded) of the demand for buying homes is from the relatively higher paid multinational and public sector employees. If we also assume that the relatively high wages in the public sector are paid from the taxes levied on the profits of the multinational sector in Ireland, I think Biden's new proposed tax plan, as reported on CNBC today, will be of interest as it potentially impacts on both the above groups going forward.

According to CNBC:

"The White House plans to fund the spending by raising the corporate tax rate to 28%. The administration also aims to boost the global minimum tax for multinational corporations and ensure they pay at least 21%. The White House also aims to discourage firms from listing tax havens as their address and writing off expenses related to offshoring, among other reforms."

Link to article on CNBC here: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/31/biden-infrastructure-plan-includes-corporate-tax-hike-transportation-spending.html

fliball123 · 31-03-2021 12:23PM

PropQueries wrote: »

If we assume that a significant percentage (if the the state is excluded) of the demand for buying homes if from the relatively higher paid multinational and public sector employees. If we also assume that the relatively high wages in the public sector are paid from the taxes levied on the profits of the multinational sector in Ireland, I think Biden's new proposed tax plan, as reported on CNBC today, will be of interest as it potentially impacts on both the above groups going forward.

According to CNBC:

"The White House plans to fund the spending by raising the corporate tax rate to 28%. The administration also aims to boost the global minimum tax for multinational corporations and ensure they pay at least 21%. The White House also aims to discourage firms from listing tax havens as their address and writing off expenses related to offshoring, among other reforms."

Link to article on CNBC here: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/31/biden-infrastructure-plan-includes-corporate-tax-hike-transportation-spending.html

All the guff about what the US do and how it will impact our MNCs located here has been going on for the last 3/4 presidents and guess what it has had ZERO impact. So in your words its safe to assume the U.S will talk a good game again and get nothing done.

PropQueries · 31-03-2021 12:33PM

fliball123 wrote: »

All the guff about what the US do and how it will impact our MNCs located here has been going on for the last 3/4 presidents and guess what it has had ZERO impact. So in your words its safe to assume the U.S will talk a good game again and get nothing done.

Well, given that his spending plans are reliant on these new taxes and more importantly, on his ability to actually collect these new taxes, I would assume "the times, they are a-changin'".

JimmyVik · 31-03-2021 12:38PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, given that his spending plans are reliant on these new taxes and more importantly, on his ability to actually collect these new taxes, I would assume "the times, they are a-changin'".

Have you ever read announcements about tax reforms that will hurt Ireland after any of the last 5 or 6 elections.

Its like a tradition at this stage.

awec · 31-03-2021 12:38PM

A few years ago the US cutting corpo tax rates was a disaster for Ireland, we were all told that there was no way the MNC jobs could possibly stay with the new low US rates. Now, the US talking of raising them again is a disaster for Ireland.

The lesson from all this is that no matter what happens, if you try hard enough you'll find a way to portray it as a disaster.

yagan · 31-03-2021 12:39PM

Cyrus wrote: »

why are you assuming they are poor quality homes?

Aside from second hand brown furnitured homes of which many have poor ber rating an awful lot of the "new" stuff seems dependent with computer bluesky generated brochure imagines.

However now that there's a sniff of viewings being allowed in a few months I reckon we could start seeing more properties fed unto to the market looking to catch the greater fool.

fliball123 · 31-03-2021 12:39PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, given that his spending plans are reliant on these new taxes and more importantly, on his ability to actually collect these new taxes, I would assume "the times, they are a-changin'".

Rewind to Trump and repeat, rewind further to Obama and repeat and rewind even further to Bush and repeat. The times are always changing and yet this year we have had numerous new job alerts of jobs being created in this country. How can this be if America is going to shut down Ireland (according to you)

https://www.breakingnews.ie/business/intel-creating-1600-new-jobs-in-ireland-as-part-of-global-expansion-1100839.html

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0314/1203988-stripe-to-create-1-000-new-jobs-in-dublin/

https://www.thesun.ie/news/6501711/microsoft-jobs-dublin-language-new-digital-sales/

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/b7b1b-personio-expands-international-hub-in-dublin-to-unlock-the-productive-potential-of-europes-smes-announces-140-new-jobs/

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/fidelity-investments-ireland-to-add-90-new-jobs-to-its-workforce-1.4481478

https://www.idaireland.com/newsroom/110-new-jobs-to-be-created-by-huawei-in-ireland

https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/arid-40201215.html

https://www.thejournal.ie/aldi-jobs-announcement-ireland-5323519-Jan2021/

if this is the result of the "world a-changin" then keep it coming. The above does not include the numerous new positions needed for the public sector

coolbeans · 31-03-2021 01:00PM

JimmyVik wrote: »

Have you ever read announcements about tax reforms that will hurt Ireland after any of the last 5 or 6 elections.
Its like a tradition at this stage.

Some people just can't see anything attractive in Ireland and can't get their heads around the fact that we are a relatively decent country to live in. You'd think you were reading the Daily Express comments section here such is the determination to make us out to be a complete basket case of a nation.

JimmyVik · 31-03-2021 01:05PM

coolbeans wrote: »

Some people just can't see anything attractive in Ireland and can't get their heads around the fact that we are a relatively decent country to live in. You'd think you were reading the Daily Express comments section here such is the determination to make us out to be a complete basket case of a nation.

We love to moan in Ireland. If its not about what we are not getting, its about what someone else is getting.

timmyntc · 31-03-2021 01:10PM

JimmyVik wrote: »

We love to moan in Ireland. If its not about what we are not getting, its about what someone else is getting.

Ah yes and all those who warned us in 05 and 06 of what was coming down the road were just a load of moaners?

All those who said house prices were in a bubble were moaners
All those who said house prices would climb even more if we shut construction during pandemic were moaners
All those who said house prices would climb even more if we allow the shared-equity scheme to go ahead were moaners

JimmyVik · 31-03-2021 01:11PM

timmyntc wrote: »

Ah yes and all those who warned us in 05 and 06 of what was coming down the road were just a load of moaners?

All those who said house prices were in a bubble were moaners
All those who said house prices would climb even more if we shut construction during pandemic were moaners
All those who said house prices would climb even more if we allow the shared-equity scheme to go ahead were moaners

You are moaning now

Villa05 · 31-03-2021 01:12PM

awec wrote:

A few years ago the US cutting corpo tax rates was a disaster for Ireland, we were all told that there was no way the MNC jobs could possibly stay with the new low US rates. Now, the US talking of raising them again is a disaster for Ireland.

Gov themselves have stated that current revenues from corpo tax are not sustainable into the future. would it not be prudent to ringfence tax from this source to use on much needed one off capital expenditure programs such as
Housing
Broadband
Renewable energy sources etc

These areas of spending suffered most in the last bust

Instead we are entering long term leases amongst other recurring spending putting significant pressure on taxpayers and leaving us exposed and vulnerable in the next downturn

We have been here before, repeating the same mistakes over and over again and wait for it

Nobody saw it coming!

fliball123 · 31-03-2021 01:12PM

timmyntc wrote: »

Ah yes and all those who warned us in 05 and 06 of what was coming down the road were just a load of moaners?

All those who said house prices were in a bubble were moaners
All those who said house prices would climb even more if we shut construction during pandemic were moaners
All those who said house prices would climb even more if we allow the shared-equity scheme to go ahead were moaners

Well we are not talking about a bubble in this context we are talking about Props assertion that the US is gong to bring Ireland and their MNCs down and even through the last recession the MNCs status stayed fairly constant in Ireland even after the bubble popped in 07/08

JimmyVik · 31-03-2021 01:14PM

Villa05 wrote: »

Gov themselves have stated that current revenues from corpo tax are not sustainable into the future. would it not be prudent to ringfence tax from this source to use on much needed one off capital expenditure programs such as
Housing
Broadband
Renewable energy sources etc

These areas of spending suffered most in the last bust

Instead we are entering long term leases amongst other recurring spending putting significant pressure on taxpayers and leaving us exposed and vulnerable in the next downturn

We have been here before, repeating the same mistakes over and over again and wait for it

Nobody saw it coming!

There should be a council tax in Ireland. Paid by everyone living in the area benefiting from said tax, whether they rent or own the house they are living in.

PropQueries · 31-03-2021 01:14PM

coolbeans wrote: »

Some people just can't see anything attractive in Ireland and can't get their heads around the fact that we are a relatively decent country to live in. You'd think you were reading the Daily Express comments section here such is the determination to make us out to be a complete basket case of a nation.

You’re mistaken peoples concerns. The state has been spending the taxes levied on multinationals like they’re a permanent source of long term tax revenue.

If there are changes in the global tax regime that reduces these significantly in the future, all those pay increases to the public sector will have to be reversed and then some.

If a public sector employee buys a home based on his current salary, that person could be in serious financial trouble in the near future.

If at the extreme end, multinationals actually start leaving the state, their employees are also in serious financial difficulty. If they got a mortgage, that means our banks are bust again and this time permanently IMO.

That means no small business can get loans, people can’t get loans to buy cars, homes, pay for home improvements etc. etc.

Think Greece 2010 but worse IMO

Sue de Nimes · 31-03-2021 01:15PM

Does anyone know if there were any changes to viewings being permitted?

Villa05 · 31-03-2021 01:18PM

JimmyVik wrote:

There should be a council tax in Ireland. Paid by everyone living in the area benefiting from said tax, whether they rent or own the house they are living in.

Yes but only in a properly functioning market. How can people paying up to 50% of income on rent afford to pay any further tax of any nature

fliball123 · 31-03-2021 01:19PM

PropQueries wrote: »

You’re mistaken peoples concerns. The state has been spending the taxes levied on multinationals like they’re a permanent source of long term tax revenue.

If there are changes in the global tax regime that reduces these significantly in the future, all those pay increases to the public sector will have to be reversed and then some.

If a public sector employee buys a home based on his current salary, that person could be in serious financial trouble in the near future.

If at the extreme end, multinationals actually start leaving the state, their employees are also in serious financial difficulty. If they got a mortgage, that means are banks are bust again and this time permanently IMO.

That means no small business can get loans, people can’t get loans to buy cars, homes, pay for home improvements etc. etc.

Think Greece 2010 but worse IMO

Will you stop oh my god Props seriously you need to go and have a cola or something else that might make you a little more positive. Greece had feck all people paying taxes and your proposed global tax reform has been spoken about for longer than a decade at this stage. You have little or no evidence of the doomsday scenario your mind seems to be lodged in playing out for real anytime soon.

coolbeans · 31-03-2021 01:20PM

timmyntc wrote: »

Ah yes and all those who warned us in 05 and 06 of what was coming down the road were just a load of moaners?

All those who said house prices were in a bubble were moaners
All those who said house prices would climb even more if we shut construction during pandemic were moaners
All those who said house prices would climb even more if we allow the shared-equity scheme to go ahead were moaners

Totally different situation. People were building houses with absolutely no regard to location or demand. It was exacerbated by the FF government linking a huge amount of tax revenue to property transactions. All of that was crazy, the definition of a bubble and we got the very predictable crash we deserved. This time, credit is restricted, building is restricted, population is increasing. That means no bubble.
Fwiw, I'll be looking to build or buy next year but I'm not going to distract myself with pie in the sky notions that's it's gonna crash. There's a lot of wishful thinking on this thread. Most of us live in the real world and will need a house in the near future. There was little available the before covid and even less now.

fliball123 · 31-03-2021 01:25PM

coolbeans wrote: »

Totally different situation. People were building houses with absolutely no regard to location or demand. It was exacerbated by the FF government linking a huge amount of tax revenue to property transactions. All of that was crazy, the definition of a bubble and we got the very predictable crash we deserved. This time, credit is restricted, building is restricted, population is increasing. That means no bubble.

While I agree to a point I think we could potentially be heading into bubble territory. While every tom dick and harry has restricted access to credit, the state has access to unlimited cheap credit and they have been a big player in buying property and also using renting property from the REITS and Vultures and keeping their balance sheet going. So the 20 Billion borrowed last year and the projected 20 billion this year will in some way filter into the buying of these houses and could be blowing up prices as the state, REITs and vultures compete with Tom dick and harry to buy from a very small pool of property. So that is where the access to cheap credit may be blowing it up. There is a big difference between supply and demand so the price going up could be as a result of this as well or combo of both. We will only know in hindsight.

timmyntc · 31-03-2021 01:26PM

Villa05 wrote: »

Gov themselves have stated that current revenues from corpo tax are not sustainable into the future. would it not be prudent to ringfence tax from this source to use on much needed one off capital expenditure programs such as
Housing
Broadband
Renewable energy sources etc

These areas of spending suffered most in the last bust

Instead we are entering long term leases amongst other recurring spending putting significant pressure on taxpayers and leaving us exposed and vulnerable in the next downturn

We have been here before, repeating the same mistakes over and over again and wait for it

Nobody saw it coming!

We should be paying back our govt debt. More crises will come down the line - we cant go for the conservative pay back as little as possible approach and kick the can down the road. Covid is just one such thing, I dont doubt that between now and 2035 there'll be another financial shock. We cant just keep borrowing forever.

Some light reading: https://data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/parliamentaryBudgetOffice/2020/2020-04-21_national-debt-an-overview_en.pdf

Villa05 · 31-03-2021 01:28PM

fliball123 wrote:

While I agree to a point I think we could potentially be heading into bubble territory. While every tom dick and harry has restricted access to credit, the state has access to unlimited cheap credid and they have been a big player in buying property and also using renting property from the REITS and Vultures and keeping their balance sheet going. So the 20 Billion borrowed last year and the projected 20 billion this year will in some way filter into the buying of these houses and could be blowing up prices as the state, REITs and vultures compete with Tom dick and harry to buy from a very small pool of property. So that is where the access to cheap credit may be blowing it up. There is a big difference between supply and demand so the price going up could be as a result of this as well or combo of both. We will only know in hindsight.

This time next year I will have you converted and house prices will be 20% higher

Welcome to the club

fliball123 · 31-03-2021 01:29PM

timmyntc wrote: »

We should be paying back our govt debt. More crises will come down the line - we cant go for the conservative pay back as little as possible approach and kick the can down the road. Covid is just one such thing, I dont doubt that between now and 2035 there'll be another financial shock. We cant just keep borrowing forever.

I believe we are paying it back as we go and it was the plan up until covid we had actually turned from borrowing to having a surplus in 2019. Sure get out of Covid first , get the economy rocking again and then yes I agree we should be paying this back at a rate higher than .

fliball123 · 31-03-2021 01:30PM

Villa05 wrote: »

This time next year I will have you converted and house prices will be 20% higher

Welcome to the club

Well I call it as I see it

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1