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Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

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  • #1352
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Sweet.Science wrote: »
    Can someone answer this I'm sure there must be a logical explanation

    Why have walk in testing centres been set up now ? And not last year ?
    Last year the virus worked in a fairly predictable way , both up and down. Cases since the New Year have been stubbornly high in some places. The walk-ins are an effort to try to figure out why. Originally they are for a week or so, but if they are seen to be useful that may be a lot longer, maybe a permanent tool, and in more more locations.


  • #1353
    Dubh Geannain
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,697 ✭✭✭Dubh Geannain


    One of my work colleagues got a private PCR test at the weekend and tested positive. He started self isolating in his home and waited for the contact tracers to get in touch. No word so he followed himself up to find out he needs to get the HSE test too, as his positive won't be registered by them otherwise.

    I'm sure that anecdote has been recounted numerous times at this stage but I stopped following the thread religiously a while back.


  • #1354
    Bridge93
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,018 ✭✭✭Bridge93


    Dubh Geannain wrote: »
    One of my work colleagues got a private PCR test at the weekend and tested positive. He started self isolating in his home and waited for the contact tracers to get in touch. No word so he followed himself up to find out he needs to get the HSE test too, as his positive won't be registered by them otherwise.

    I'm sure that anecdote has been recounted numerous times at this stage but I stopped following the thread religiously a while back.

    To be fair that seems normal i would have thought. If its a private test, how would the HSE know he tested positive? Seems reasonable they would require him to go through official channels now to get properly accounted for


  • #1355
    Dubh Geannain
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,697 ✭✭✭Dubh Geannain


    Bridge93 wrote: »
    To be fair that seems normal i would have thought. If its a private test, how would the HSE know he tested positive? Seems reasonable they would require him to go through official channels now to get properly accounted for

    Absolutely, it does but there's a gap there in that he wasn't told by the Private test centre to follow up with the HSE. That's a big gap IMO. It's only through his own diligence that he's become aware of it.

    To be allowed perform these private tests (at a cost) there should be at least be some requirement on the Test Centres to do one or two of the following -
    1. Inform the patient to follow up with the HSE
    2. Inform the HSE to make an appointment for the patient


  • #1356
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,173 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Been two weeks since I did an analysis on hospital numbers;
    seamus wrote: »
    I wouldn't be confident at this stage of 200 by Easter. I think right now any projection beyond next week is fraught because we may have hit a bit of an inflection point.
    If we're under 300 this day next week, we should be happy.
    Yep. Even a weeks' projection was screwed up that time.

    Overall, hospital numbers are dropping, just slowly. On balance we are discharging more than we're admitting, but just about.

    Weekly drops;
    25th - 30th: Down 454 (23%)
    Feb 2nd - 6th: Down 330 (21.6%)
    9th - 13th: Down 314 (26%)
    15th - 20th: Down 197 (21.5%)
    22nd- 27th: Down 196 (26%)
    Mar 1st - 6th: Down 140 (25%)
    Mar 8th - 13th: Down 83 (19.6%)
    15th - 20th: Down 21 (6%)
    22nd - 27th: Down 56 (15%)

    This time if we're under 300 come Saturday, we should be happy. It means the trajectory is still downward and any relaxing of restrictions is justifiable.

    ICU numbers are still trending well. I said 60 by Easter, and we might just eek that, if not close to it. This suggests to me that the vaccination programme is having the impact where we need it to; hospitalisations are not translating to ICU numbers.

    There was a bit of a plateau with ICU on Paddy's week, but I would attribute that to the bank holiday; staff availability might limit any decisions to discharge patients.


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  • #1357
    muddypuppy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 322 ✭✭muddypuppy


    Dubh Geannain wrote: »
    One of my work colleagues got a private PCR test at the weekend and tested positive. He started self isolating in his home and waited for the contact tracers to get in touch. No word so he followed himself up to find out he needs to get the HSE test too, as his positive won't be registered by them otherwise.

    I'm sure that anecdote has been recounted numerous times at this stage but I stopped following the thread religiously a while back.

    I honestly would have done the same mistake and expected the private center to follow up with the HSE.

    I was looking at the FAQ of one of this testing sites https://rocdochealthcheck.ie/faq/ and it says
    As part of our follow-up care, if detected for COVID-19 we inform the individual’s doctor as well as the HSE to assist with more accurate contact tracing and recording of detected cases.

    If you are not from Ireland and do not currently have a GP, mark this box as unapplicable.

    So unfortunately it might be up to the individual testing center?


  • #1358
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 939 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Dubh Geannain wrote: »
    Absolutely, it does but there's a gap there in that he wasn't told by the Private test centre to follow up with the HSE. That's a big gap IMO. It's only through his own diligence that he's become aware of it.

    To be allowed perform these private tests (at a cost) there should be at least be some requirement on the Test Centres to do one or two of the following -
    1. Inform the patient to follow up with the HSE
    2. Inform the HSE to make an appointment for the patient

    As Covid-19 is a notifiable infectious disease the private lab do have a legal responsibility to report the case to the public authorities.

    https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/list/5/publichealth/publichealthdepts/id/idreporting.html


  • #1359
    Sofa King Great
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 872 ✭✭✭Sofa King Great


    The positive asymptomatic cases being caught at the walk in centres should be seen as a failure of the contact tracing system rather than a success of the centres


  • #1360
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,775 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Sofa King Great wrote: »
    The positive asymptomatic cases being caught at the walk in centres should be seen as a failure of the contact tracing system rather than a success of the centres

    ...or perhaps both?


  • #1361
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Sofa King Great wrote: »
    The positive asymptomatic cases being caught at the walk in centres should be seen as a failure of the contact tracing system rather than a success of the centres
    Not really, testing to date is dependent on people seeking out tests. These centres may offer better data on the possible effect of asymptomatics on the spread of disease. Testing like this is not practical on a national scale.


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  • #1362
    Sofa King Great
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 872 ✭✭✭Sofa King Great


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    ...or perhaps both?

    If it were to complement a decent contract tracing regimen I'd say it was a success but it is just papering over the cracks - that is clear from the high positivity rate (relative to the positivity rate from the normal testing)


  • #1363
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 939 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Sofa King Great wrote: »
    The positive asymptomatic cases being caught at the walk in centres should be seen as a failure of the contact tracing system rather than a success of the centres

    Contact tracing has been one of our biggest failures overall, the close contact definition is too narrow, we don't actively look for possible contacts, only what is obvious. We decided a long time ago to basically do what was feasible without a huge effort.


  • #1364
    Bridge93
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,018 ✭✭✭Bridge93


    The contact tracers are fighting a losing battle at this stage, I wouldn't blame them too much. As more and more people start to ignore certain restrictions their contacts are going up all over the place. Now if somebody tests positive from breaking the rules, they are surely more likely to keep that to themselves? They shouldn't, but some (many) definitely one depending on the breach they've committed. Not much the tracers can do if they aren't given the contacts


  • #1365
    Sofa King Great
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 872 ✭✭✭Sofa King Great


    Bridge93 wrote: »
    The contact tracers are fighting a losing battle at this stage, I wouldn't blame them too much. As more and more people start to ignore certain restrictions their contacts are going up all over the place. Now if somebody tests positive from breaking the rules, they are surely more likely to keep that to themselves? They shouldn't, but some (many) definitely one depending on the breach they've committed. Not much the tracers can do if they aren't given the contacts
    It's not the contact tracers fault - they are under resourced and operating within admitted definition of a close contact.


  • #1366
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 939 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Bridge93 wrote: »
    The contact tracers are fighting a losing battle at this stage, I wouldn't blame them too much. As more and more people start to ignore certain restrictions their contacts are going up all over the place. Now if somebody tests positive from breaking the rules, they are surely more likely to keep that to themselves? They shouldn't, but some (many) definitely one depending on the breach they've committed. Not much the tracers can do if they aren't given the contacts

    I wouldn't blame the actual tracers, but the resources they have been given and the scope of what they do falls well short of an adequate containment strategy. Going back 48 hours from symptom onset and sticking to the 2m, 15 min, no mask stuff to determine close contacts is not enough to close infection chains and is based on incorrect assumptions made at the start.


  • #1367
    Sofa King Great
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 872 ✭✭✭Sofa King Great


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    I wouldn't blame the actual tracers, but the resources they have been given and the scope of what they do falls well short of an adequate containment strategy. Going back 48 hours from symptom onset and sticking to the 2m, 15 min, no mask stuff to determine close contacts is not enough to close infection chains and is based on incorrect assumptions made at the start.

    It also renders all the data we use about where the disease is spreading as useless. Hence why we have huge numbers of "community" and "household" and barely any cases in other settings


  • #1368
    Str8outtaWuhan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 968 ✭✭✭Str8outtaWuhan


    heard pat kenny on the radio saying he was a close contact and got tested it was negative and still has to restrict until after 2nd test. Most close contact i know of are only getting one test at day 10 . Its an omni shambles of a system added to the fact that 2 dr's in my town , one still vaccinating over 75's other nearly finished over 70's


  • #1369
    OwenM
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 860 ✭✭✭OwenM


    Banana Republic 1 wrote: »
    This notion that NPHET are up on an eerie like Mordor with a cat-o-nine tales is really stupid at this stage. The Government is handing them the weapons they can use is it their fault that they are been given cluster bombs instead of cruise missiles.The strategy needs to change, Government decide on the strategy.:rolleyes:

    They have nothing to loose by retaining a full lockdown, nothing, so why would they do anything else. Asymmetrical risk.


  • #1370
    newuser99999
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 378 ✭✭newuser99999


    Sofa King Great wrote: »
    It's not the contact tracers fault - they are under resourced and operating within admitted definition of a close contact.

    It’s only the governments fault that they are under resourced. I know plenty of people out of a job who would be willing to do it just to have something to do.


  • #1371
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Deleted User wrote: »
    I wouldn't blame the actual tracers, but the resources they have been given and the scope of what they do falls well short of an adequate containment strategy. Going back 48 hours from symptom onset and sticking to the 2m, 15 min, no mask stuff to determine close contacts is not enough to close infection chains and is based on incorrect assumptions made at the start.
    Contact tracing breaks down once the number of cases gets too high or the average number of close contacts is in double figures. As Reid commented you can't exponentially expand a system just because people are getting sick. What I would say is that these walk-ins look like an effort to add more tools and it's far better to identify cases than to rely on contact tracing.


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  • #1372
    Cosmo Kramer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,186 ✭✭✭Cosmo Kramer


    hotmail.com wrote: »
    People want hope, they want restrictions (but not for themselves), they want to return to normal but don't want another wave, they want to travel but not others to travel.

    Sort that out.

    Exactly, it's impossible. There can be no roadmap, at least not one that people want to hear.

    The reality is that by the time we get up to speed with the current vaccination program it will be largely rendered useless anyway, as the South African variant, which is currently spreading widely around mainland Europe, will have taken over as the dominant variant in Ireland also.

    The current vaccinations only have a 10% to 30% success rate against the SA variant so are insufficient to tackle the autumn wave we're facing into. Everybody will need to be vaccinated again anyway because of it, we'll be starting over from scratch with vaccinations. It's unavoidable, and the government will know that, but probably don't want to depress people any further at the moment.

    But the reality is that we're facing into another winter of lockdown and probably well into 2022 as well, so the best advice unfortunately is probably to just try to suck it up, stop worrying about irrelevancies like 10k or 20k travel limits and make the best of whatever you have because it is unlikely there will be any significant changes for the next year or more.


  • #1373
    gozunda
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,992 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Contact tracing has been one of our biggest failures overall, the close contact definition is too narrow, we don't actively look for possible contacts, only what is obvious. We decided a long time ago to basically do what was feasible without a huge effort.

    To be fair to those who work in contract tracing - some of those contacted are somewhat less than co-operative

    Covid-19 contact tracers are encountering incidents where some people are ignoring their calls, not disclosing how they may have got the virus, and not revealing other close contacts, according to a senior official at a regional Department of Public...

    Dr Mannix revealed that her team of contact tracers in the mid-west region “encounter challenges” such as “people not answering their phones, reluctance to reveal their close contacts, and occasionally people not wanting to disclose how they may have been exposed to the virus”.


    Health.https://www.breakingnews.ie/amp/ireland/people-ignoring-covid-contact-tracing-calls-health-official-warns-1084991.html


  • #1374
    covidrelease
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 229 ✭✭covidrelease


    Cosmo Kramer wrote: »
    The reality is that by the time we get up to speed with the current vaccination program it will be largely rendered useless anyway, as the South African variant, which is currently spreading widely around mainland Europe, will have taken over as the dominant variant in Ireland also.

    Oh christ :D:D:D


  • #1375
    timmyntc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,672 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Contact tracing breaks down once the number of cases gets too high or the average number of close contacts is in double figures. As Reid commented you can't exponentially expand a system just because people are getting sick. What I would say is that these walk-ins look like an effort to add more tools and it's far better to identify cases than to rely on contact tracing.

    Yes but effective contact tracing will stop cases getting so high in the first place.
    A proper contact tracing system would keep going back well beyond 48hrs to attempt to find the whole chain or transmission.


  • #1376
    covidrelease
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 229 ✭✭covidrelease


    gozunda wrote: »

    I linked to two articles from January detailing the UKs governments statement on the policing of UK restrictions including parking benches (which you pooh poohed etc) and other things.

    You keep banging on about enforcement measures in the UK from nearly 3 months ago, when the virus was rampant, to try and make out the UK police have been adapting similar enforcement measures in recent weeks.

    It just silly.


  • #1377
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    It won't help with images beaming in from the UK of partial open-ups, this will just embolden people here to ignore government restrictions.


  • #1378
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    timmyntc wrote: »
    Yes but effective contact tracing will stop cases getting so high in the first place.
    A proper contact tracing system would keep going back well beyond 48hrs to attempt to find the whole chain or transmission.
    48 hours should deliver a lot of contacts at risk. They've been reluctant to go too far back because of the known limitations of our system, high individual levels of close contacts, and the effort versus result conundrum. 7 days seem to be what they'll now look at. Incidentally there are more than a few anecdotes of contact tracers being told what to do with themselves so there's that element too. If you really want a good system, like South Korea, you need to be able to do things that GDPR forbids.


  • #1379
    covidrelease
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 229 ✭✭covidrelease


    Deleted User wrote: »
    It won't help with images beaming in from the UK of partial open-ups, this will just embolden people here to ignore government restrictions.

    Hopefully it will make the government cop on and realise the restrictions in place are the wrong ones and badly implemented.

    We will also have people crossing the border in large numbers shortly, and rightly so.

    Construction closed, and pretending all the boys are sitting at home, no other country as pathetic as that.


  • #1380
    timmyntc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,672 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    is_that_so wrote: »
    48 hours should deliver a lot of contacts at risk. They've been reluctant to go too far back because of the known limitations of our system and the effort versus result conundrum. 7 days seem to be what they'll now look at. Incidentally there are more than a few anecdotes of contact tracers being told what to do with themselves so there's that element too. If you really want a good system, like South Korea, you need to be able to do things that GDPR forbids.

    Data protection might limit it to some extent, but not to the extent that they cant ask - give us all your contacts up to the last week or two.

    It's a complete lack of ambition in setting it up. They essentially had a blank cheque to implement this seeing as the alternative was lockdown and income supports, so youd get much better value for money with a proper contact tracing system. But no, sure this is Ireland.. home of the half-assed


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  • #1381
    FishOnABike
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,928 ✭✭✭FishOnABike


    muddypuppy wrote: »
    I honestly would have done the same mistake and expected the private center to follow up with the HSE.

    I was looking at the FAQ of one of this testing sites https://rocdochealthcheck.ie/faq/ and it says


    So unfortunately it might be up to the individual testing center?
    Surely as a notifiable disease it isn't up to individual private testing centres? https://www.mhc.ie/latest/insights/covid-19-a-notifiable-disease-guidance-for-medical-practitioners


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