COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

Wolf359f · 29-03-2021 10:14AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I was looking at the vaccine figures there and can't for the life of me figure out how we can get to having offered at least a single dose to 80% of adults by end of June.

We seem to be scheduled for circa 3m doses delivered in the next three months, of that, 1.75m to 2m will be first or single dose, 1m to 1.25m of it will be required for second dose. Add that to our current single dose figure and that would mean at best 2.55m people will have been given at least a single dose by the end of June (and we'll have about 1.5m fully dosed) that's somewhere around 63% of our adult population (still a good figure but someway short of where I'd hoped we'd be).

What's the breakdown of the 3m doses per manufacturer you're using?
Any AZ being delivered in the next 3 months will all be for first doses. We've enough in stock and a delivery this week which would cover all second doses for those who already have their first dose.
So for calculation purposes with deliveries, count all AZ and J&J deliveries over the 3 months as going towards that 80% first doses by end of June.

Van.Bosch · 29-03-2021 10:16AM

Wolf359f wrote: »

He's saying 177,000 people have been vaccinated in nursing homes. I'd love to know where he's getting that figure. Dashboard says 100,000. Is he adding on dose 2 to inflate the numbers?

Yeah, he made a mess of the numbers for the homes.

Apogee · 29-03-2021 10:21AM

Friday - 26,082 (second highest) Mon-Fri: 104,605

Van.Bosch · 29-03-2021 10:21AM

Apogee wrote: »

Saturday -

26,000 more. Good progress

29-03-2021 10:23AM

Wolf359f wrote: »

What's the breakdown of the 3m doses per manufacturer you're using?
Any AZ being delivered in the next 3 months will all be for first doses. We've enough in stock and a delivery this week which would cover all second doses for those who already have their first dose.
So for calculation purposes with deliveries, count all AZ and J&J deliveries over the 3 months as going towards that 80% first doses by end of June.

Yeah did that, not all AZ delivered in q2 will be first dose, by the end of this month we'll have given about 200k first doses of AZ, so 200k is the figure I took from their q2 delivery that will be required as second dose.

The J & J deliveries are not good in April and May, which means we're heavily reliant on Pfizer in those two months and that means lots of their supply will be required for second doses. Total J & J for the quarter is 600k, but most of that (70% or so) is scheduled for June.

Mitch Connor · 29-03-2021 10:23AM

those saturday/sunday numbers are a particular disgrace.

MerlinSouthDub · 29-03-2021 10:24AM

Mitch Connor wrote: »

those saturday/sunday numbers are a particular disgrace.

You think we should slow down the weekday rollout, so that the numbers will look better for the weekend?

MerlinSouthDub · 29-03-2021 10:25AM

Van.Bosch wrote: »

26,000 more. Good progress

104000 doses administered over 5 days - Monday to Friday.

Wolf359f · 29-03-2021 10:27AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Yeah did that, not all AZ delivered in q2 will be first dose, by the end of this month we'll have given about 200k first doses of AZ, so 200k is the figure I took from their q2 delivery that will be required as second dose.

The J & J deliveries are not good in April and May, which means we're heavily reliant on Pfizer in those two months and that means lots of their supply will be required for second doses. Total J & J for the quarter is 600k, but most of that (70% or so) is scheduled for June.

On the J&J, unless the 70% is delivered the last day of June, it doesn't matter, for the most part it should be all used up and accounted for the calculations.

KrustyUCC · 29-03-2021 10:28AM

Credit where its due that's a good week for vaccination program

Apogee · 29-03-2021 10:30AM

Breakdown of vaccines (Pfizer remains the workhorse):
Pfizer-76,832
AZ-34,804
Moderna-6,404

leahyl · 29-03-2021 10:31AM

Apogee wrote: »

Breakdown of vaccines (Pfizer remains the workhorse):
Pfizer-76,832
AZ-34,804
Moderna-6,404

Very few Moderna being administered - why is this? Just supply?

trellheim · 29-03-2021 10:35AM

we got very few and the manufacturer is requesting 50% holdback for second vaccs ( no idea why, as compared to Pfizer or AZ )

is_that_so · 29-03-2021 10:41AM

trellheim wrote: »

we got very few and the manufacturer is requesting 50% holdback for second vaccs ( no idea why, as compared to Pfizer or AZ )

They are very strongly committed to the US contracts for a good few months, Q3 will be better for their supplies. None of these limitations are a shock and they've managed the communications on it far better than AZ.

Apogee · 29-03-2021 11:00AM

Deleted User wrote: »

I was looking at the vaccine figures there and can't for the life of me figure out how we can get to having offered at least a single dose to 80% of adults by end of June.

We seem to be scheduled for circa 3m doses delivered in the next three months, of that, 1.75m to 2m will be first or single dose, 1m to 1.25m of it will be required for second dose. Add that to our current single dose figure and that would mean at best 2.55m people will have been given at least a single dose by the end of June (and we'll have about 1.5m fully dosed) that's somewhere around 63% of our adult population (still a good figure but someway short of where I'd hoped we'd be).

Working in reverse, based on previous Government targets (in bold) and with a quoted vaccinatable population of 3.7M, we would need 5M doses to hit those targets.

If we get 1.1M by end Q1, then on average, we would need 1.3M delivered per month for Apr-June. The 1.25M target at end of Q1 has already fallen foul of AZ.

Gael23 · 29-03-2021 11:35AM

Van.Bosch wrote: »

Paul Cullen at the Irish times today questioning the huge amount of people vaccinated in cohort 1 & 2 compared with the known amounts in each. Questions people here have asked for a while.

Cohort 2 has seen 228,943 people get vaccines yet the HSE only employ 80,000 people work for them in this category. Obviously there are those outside the HSE on the front line but 3 times the amount seems high.

A lot of cohort 6 appears to have been mixed in with cohort 2. People like doctors secretaries, catering staff etc. I don’t have an issue with that because they spend as much time in front of patients as doctors do

Wolf359f · 29-03-2021 11:40AM

Gael23 wrote: »

A lot of cohort 6 appears to have been mixed in with cohort 2. People like doctors secretaries, catering staff etc. I don’t have an issue with that because they spend as much time in front of patients as doctors do

I think they just dropped the Frontline part of it and went with all HCW's. I think it would have just slowed the rollout down. Trying to prioritize nurses over assistants, then doctors etc... It was just easier to treat them all the same. The split off with cohort 4 is showing when you narrow down groups, things go slow.

Some areas of Germany are breaking the age groups down to individual years and it's having a negative impact on the rollout.

ek motor · 29-03-2021 11:49AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I was looking at the vaccine figures there and can't for the life of me figure out how we can get to having offered at least a single dose to 80% of adults by end of June.

We seem to be scheduled for circa 3m doses delivered in the next three months, of that, 1.75m to 2m will be first or single dose, 1m to 1.25m of it will be required for second dose. Add that to our current single dose figure and that would mean at best 2.55m people will have been given at least a single dose by the end of June (and we'll have about 1.5m fully dosed) that's somewhere around 63% of our adult population (still a good figure but someway short of where I'd hoped we'd be).

Agreed , I think the figure of 80% was put out there to give hope and optimism, the actual figure will be likely closer to 60% of adults having at least one dose.

is_that_so · 29-03-2021 11:56AM

Van.Bosch wrote: »

Paul Cullen at the Irish times today questioning the huge amount of people vaccinated in cohort 1 & 2 compared with the known amounts in each. Questions people here have asked for a while.

Cohort 2 has seen 228,943 people get vaccines yet the HSE only employ 80,000 people work for them in this category. Obviously there are those outside the HSE on the front line but 3 times the amount seems high.

Paul Cullen does like to shadow box. I don't think anyone really knows how many are in a lot of these groups. The approach at present seems very much to be do as many groups at the same time as they can. Once we are into the bigger blocks in May/June it won't matter.

Water John · 29-03-2021 12:07PM

Apogee wrote: »

Working in reverse, based on previous Government targets (in bold) and with a quoted vaccinatable population of 3.7M, we would need 5M doses to hit those targets.

If we get 1.1M by end Q1, then on average, we would need 1.3M delivered per month for Apr-June. The 1.25M target at end of Q1 has already fallen foul of AZ.

Maybe and I think likely, we'll need July to get to the 82%. It's only a slippage of 4 weeks. We'll still be able to lift any controls in late summer.
End of July, even Mid Aug, was always the game point I was thinking.

lucernarian · 29-03-2021 12:12PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

I think they just dropped the Frontline part of it and went with all HCW's. I think it would have just slowed the rollout down. Trying to prioritize nurses over assistants, then doctors etc... It was just easier to treat them all the same. The split off with cohort 4 is showing when you narrow down groups, things go slow.

Some areas of Germany are breaking the age groups down to individual years and it's having a negative impact on the rollout.

That split off doesn't really show anything, we are supply-constrained. I and others here have been looking for something like cohort 4 and better planning for these scenarios for months - and even with the complete lack of preparation by hospitals to identify vulnerable patients, it hasn't slowed the actual rollout.

Gael23 · 29-03-2021 12:13PM

Water John wrote: »

Maybe and I think likely, we'll need July to get to the 82%. It's only a slippage of 4 weeks. We'll still be able to lift any controls in late summer.
End of July, even Mid Aug, was always the game point I was thinking.

I think once kids finish school at the end of June it will be hard to keep people in side even of it’s only for a few weeks

MerlinSouthDub · 29-03-2021 12:14PM

Apogee wrote: »

Working in reverse, based on previous Government targets (in bold) and with a quoted vaccinatable population of 3.7M, we would need 5M doses to hit those targets.

If we get 1.1M by end Q1, then on average, we would need 1.3M delivered per month for Apr-June. The 1.25M target at end of Q1 has already fallen foul of AZ.

I think we are expecting 1.3 million per month as follows:

Pfizer: 2.2 million
Moderna: 0.39 million
J&H: 0.6 million
AZ: 0.77 million
Total = 3.96 million for Q2

This is based on 1.1% of the Q2 deliveries as per Ursula Von Leyden's tweet of 25th March. It allows for AZ falling well below their original planned deliveries.

Of course, you'd have to have some doubts that AZ and J&J will deliver in full

seamus · 29-03-2021 12:18PM

Deleted User wrote: »

We seem to be scheduled for circa 3m doses delivered in the next three months, of that, 1.75m to 2m will be first or single dose, 1m to 1.25m of it will be required for second dose.

I know you're trying to build in buffer there, but even at the moment about 27% of doses are second doses. And that's with Pfizer doing the heavy lifting, with a shorter dosing time.

So accounting 33% - 40% for second doses is overcooking it a bit. A more realistic figure would be 25%, which means 2.25m first doses and 750k second doses.

Which brings us up to 2.8m first doses by the end of June; about 70% of adults.

However, that's assuming Astrazenca is still only a fifth of our vaccine stock through Q2.

If (big if) AZ get their sh1t together and deliver a greater chunk of supply during Q2, then their longer dosing regime should push us up to 80%, if not over it, by the end of June.

Water John · 29-03-2021 12:20PM

Gael23 wrote: »

I think once kids finish school at the end of June it will be hard to keep people in side even of it’s only for a few weeks

Outside isn't the main problem. It's travelling and then congregating inside.
All over 65 and the vulnerable will be fully vaccinated at that point.

Gael23 · 29-03-2021 12:28PM

Water John wrote: »

Outside isn't the main problem. It's travelling and then congregating inside.
All over 65 and the vulnerable will be fully vaccinated at that point.

That will happen in abundance when schools are on summer holidays. Kids going to each other’s houses for play dates and that.

irishlad. · 29-03-2021 12:38PM

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cUZy6AMCwuA2zhtRuKK7cqMVgmhdDsGsZrFWJTkw9DY/edit#gid=1219026690

Cohort 3 with the majority of Fridays doses.

Cohort 4 moving along quite slowly, we're a long way off reaching the estimated 220k in the cohort.

irishlad. · 29-03-2021 12:45PM

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1376466240248688643

is_that_so · 29-03-2021 12:47PM

irishlad. wrote: »

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1376466240248688643

As I've said nobody has a clue of numbers!

Stark · 29-03-2021 12:47PM

500,000 people sounds like a lot. Guess most people over 65 would have some sort of underlying condition so they're pretty much defacto pulling in everyone from cohort 6?

I think there's about 700k over-65s in total in Ireland (including over 70s).

COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

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