Scottish independence

BonnieSituation · 23-03-2021 1:29pm

Water John wrote: »

That's the Committee whose report was leaked. Opposition have majority on it and no matter what Sturgeon's evidence was, they seemed to have made up their minds before it. Basically they formed the opinion that Sturgeon must have known, as they believe it unlikely that she did not know what her leader was up to.

Exactly. As I said, it broke along party lines, so very little that you can take from it.

Mr.Nice Guy · 24-03-2021 11:09pm

This is the latest Conservative idea to bind the Union together:

https://twitter.com/BBCScotlandNews/status/1374785263851995136

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1374760252567093251

It won't apply to NI because even the Tories seemingly know that's a can of worms not to open.

Not sure this idea will work out well in Scotland. I don't get the impression the electorate will be too keen on stunts like this. The SNP's response:

'If the Tories think an overload of Union Jacks on buildings is the answer to promote the strength of the Union, it shows how thin the case for the Union is."

BonnieSituation · 24-03-2021 11:22pm

The SNP's response is bang on. It's exactly how I feel when I come across fervent Unionists who post like scared cats.

I was hoping they'd be thick-headed and oblivious enough to try this in the North. Dang.

bob mcbob · 24-03-2021 11:30pm

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

This is the latest Conservative idea to bind the Union together:

https://twitter.com/BBCScotlandNews/status/1374785263851995136

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1374760252567093251

It won't apply to NI because even the Tories seemingly know that's a can of worms not to open.

Not sure this idea will work out well in Scotland. I don't get the impression the electorate will be too keen on stunts like this. The SNP's response:

I think this article in the Guardian sums things up for me -

One of the most self-contradictory aspects of the government’s hyper-unionism is the way it clearly plays to English resentments, raising the flag to declare war on the perfidious Scots, and thereby deepening the UK’s fault lines.

Shall we at last face the facts? Even if the institutions of the United Kingdom creak on unchanged or are somehow saved by a new federalism, as a meaningful political entity the UK is all but over. Independence is partly a state of mind, and for very different reasons, a large number of people in Scotland, Wales and England have got there already. So, aside from its use whenever the Olympics come round, the union jack may be beyond rescue – best left to the kind of opportunists who think they can use it as they please but fail to grasp the downsides.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/21/british-politicians-union-jack-flag

Leonard Hofstadter · 26-03-2021 3:08pm

I see Alex Salmond is going to set up a new party called 'Alba'. Obviously it's going to be campaigning in favour of independence.

Anyone here think it's got a chance of taking votes from Sturgeon and the SNP in the upcoming elections?

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19190356.alex-salmond-lead-new-alba-party-scottish-parliament-election/

A Dub in Glasgo · 26-03-2021 3:46pm

It is standing only on the list vote so no chance of taking votes off the SNP in the constituency vote. The list uses the D'Hont method to calculate the seats so a list only party contesting the regional seats could win seats, however these will be at the expense of the other independence parties (SNP, Greens, AFI and ISP). Up to now, the Greens have supplemented the SNP to provide the pro-independence majority in parliament.

The problem here is there are too many options on the list and it risks splitting the whole thing. We might see consolidation amongst the newer pro-independence parties. The real issue for the SNP is if they do not do as well on the constituecy vote, they may not get enough top up list seats as the independence vote is split. In all honesty, the SNP have allowed this to happen by driving out dissention in the SNP and narrowing the independence message

Water John · 26-03-2021 4:01pm

Is Alba to be a personality party? Besides for indy what will be its policies? Nothing wrong with him doing it, but it needs to add to the mix not subtract.

A Dub in Glasgo · 26-03-2021 4:43pm

In addition to my post above, I looked into it a bit more and found this and it would not appear to harm the independence parties as much as I said earlier. Could be an interesting result

https://twitter.com/bnhw_/status/1375461477834973184

Larbre34 · 26-03-2021 11:21pm

Salmond is only doing this so the SNP *might* have to come begging to him for things down the line. Personally I don't think he has a hope. Its too late to build anything for this election and too long to survive until the next Westminster poll. Why would any ambitious indy head associate with anyone but the SNP?

Leonard Hofstadter · 26-03-2021 11:40pm

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

In addition to my post above, I looked into it a bit more and found this and it would not appear to harm the independence parties as much as I said earlier. Could be an interesting result

https://twitter.com/bnhw_/status/1375461477834973184

So it sounds like if anything, the entry of this party is more likely to damage the unionist parties and thus the parties in favour of another referendum are going to have no trouble getting a majority of the seats in Holyrood, or have I misunderstood?

A Dub in Glasgo · 27-03-2021 1:21am

AFI have already thrown in the towel

https://twitter.com/action4indy/status/1375555598637527040

A Dub in Glasgo · 27-03-2021 1:23am

Leonard Hofstadter wrote: »

So it sounds like if anything, the entry of this party is more likely to damage the unionist parties and thus the parties in favour of another referendum are going to have no trouble getting a majority of the seats in Holyrood, or have I misunderstood?

A fine line to try and game the system but yes that is the intention

A Dub in Glasgo · 27-03-2021 3:15pm

The newly formed party from Salmond will definitely have an impact and it is looking likely to get list seats

https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1375780138005245952

The Tories are trying to get Labour to do their dirty work again

https://twitter.com/Douglas4Moray/status/1375747889805336577

Water John · 27-03-2021 8:44pm

A Labour party of some fashion can, not only survive but thrive in an Ind Scotland, if it gets its act together. The Tories will disappear.

A Dub in Glasgo · 28-03-2021 2:27am

Another SNP MP defects to Alba Party

https://twitter.com/jamesmatthewsky/status/1375960982233710598

Mr.Nice Guy · 28-03-2021 3:57pm

I saw this from pollster John Curtice in The Guardian:

However, election experts are warning that the political impact of the Alba party is extremely unpredictable and could inflict tactical problems for the pro-independence cause. John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, said Salmond faced a “substantial strategic challenge”.

“The success or otherwise of the enterprise will rest heavily on Mr Salmond’s personal popularity,” he added. “Though it might pick up some activists and perhaps SNP politicians the party will have little organisation or resource, and will be heavily reliant on his personality. However, Mr Salmond is not a very popular politician. According to YouGov and Opinium, only 14% of all voters have a favourable view of Mr Salmond. Among current SNP voters the figures are 16% and 18% respectively.

“Given [the SNP’s] current standing in the polls, they could well be dependent on picking up a handful of list seats in their weaker regions [to win an overall majority] – most obviously the South of Scotland and the Highlands. Mr Salmond might thus cost the SNP an overall majority – and that may well be much more important than the total number of pro-independence MSPs.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/mar/28/alex-salmonds-alba-party-is-a-danger-to-the-union-says-top-tory

It's going to be fascinating to see how Alba affect the outcome. I was excited enough about the election before Salmond's party entered the equation. Now, it's going to be even more dramatic.

BlitzKrieg · 28-03-2021 4:00pm

Water John wrote: »

A Labour party of some fashion can, not only survive but thrive in an Ind Scotland, if it gets its act together. The Tories will disappear.

yeah but from the perspective of the current labour party in the UK that is irrelevant they want to keep power in London.

A Dub in Glasgo · 04-04-2021 11:24am

Latest poll is out and commissioned by the Sunday Times which shows Alba taking list seats off the unionist parties. I have now decided to vote SNP for the constituency and Alba on the regional list

https://twitter.com/PhantomPower14/status/1378527642098499584

https://twitter.com/PhantomPower14/status/1378496819571867648

Water John · 04-04-2021 9:40pm

One would nearly put it in the Conspiracy Theory forum, that Sturgeon and Salmond had dreamed it up between them. That Alba targeting the list, would not reduce the SNP's number and give more pro indy seats.

Leonard Hofstadter · 10-04-2021 12:47pm

SNP looking good for 70 seats apparently. Scottish Greens (who are also in favour of independence) also look like they are going to do well. Alba having no impact:

https://news.stv.tv/politics/snp-still-on-course-for-holyrood-majority-stv-poll?top

cameramonkey · 10-04-2021 2:27pm

Leonard Hofstadter wrote: »

SNP looking good for 70 seats apparently. Scottish Greens (who are also in favour of independence) also look like they are going to do well. Alba having no impact:

https://news.stv.tv/politics/snp-still-on-course-for-holyrood-majority-stv-poll?top

has the ring of the 1918 elections in Ireland about it.

PommieBast · 10-04-2021 9:56pm

cameramonkey wrote: »

has the ring of the 1918 elections in Ireland about it.

Pretty much what I thought when I saw the 2015 GE results.

A Dub in Glasgo · 11-04-2021 10:13pm

An update on the legal case going through the Scottish appeal court

Update on Peoples Action on Section 30

Dear Backers,
While we sit and wait for the judgement of the inner house of the court of session (which unfortunately I cannot give you a clear timescale on but hope it is before the election) there has now been some rumblings from Westminster.
You will all recall that I have been warning about a scenario since this case started, that if the SNP failed to ensure that a bill for a referendum was legal to pass (even if it remained ambiguous) then the UK Government would have grounds to challenge it the minute it was introduced to the Scottish Parliament which would prevent it from getting royal assent. No royal assent means it doesn't become law, and while the Scottish Government and the UK Government were battering lumps out of each other, the UK Government would simply use that time to modify laws at Westminster to take parts of that bill out of the competency of the Scottish Parliament.
This was based on the fact that it is exactly what the Tories did to Holyrood over the continuity bill.
I told you the only way to ensure a referendum bill was to ensure it was completely competent BEFORE it was introduced so then the UK Government would have nothing to challenge, and as long as the Scottish Parliament got that bill through quickly and before the UK Government could mess with the legislation, it would protect the bill.
Stopping this scenario playing out was exactly the point of the people's action because by proving the Scottish Parliament had the power to legislate for a second referendum without Westminster's permission and proving the bill was competent, it would ensure the Tories had nothing to challenge.
Well buried deep in an article today in the national, this exact scenario now seems to be coming to pass and the only people to blame are the politicians at Holyrood who had the sheer hubris to believe that feet stomping would somehow offset a UK Government that has zero respect for mandates, or political precedent, or even the law.
Understand, I am trying to moderate my language, because, in reality, I am absolutely livid, and with good reason.
We should not be in this position, but we are because the politicians were afraid to stick their neck above the wall. It is the equivalent of the weatherman telling someone a hurricane is coming and they should evacuate and the homeowner saying "No it's not, and if it does come, I'll just shake my fist at it really hard!"
But yeah.....
This case is now more important than it has ever been, because it's not just a case of what came before, it's now a case of it likely being the only way out of the current situation.
"No pressure", as they say.
As usual, I hope you are all safe and well, and I will update you as we know more.

Sincerely

Martin

Mr.Nice Guy · 12-04-2021 12:39am

From The Guardian:

Johnson is said to be adamant in private that he will not be the prime minister who permits a referendum and the Conservatives will hammer home the message that holding such a poll during a pandemic would be deeply irresponsible.

Reports in the Sunday Times suggested that, while the UK government’s position remained that it was opposed to granting Holyrood the requisite powers to hold a legal referendum, senior Tories believe this would be hard to sustain should the SNP triumph on 6 May, and that Johnson would be better off forcing a vote during the economic upheaval likely to follow the pandemic to underline the risks of Scotland leaving the UK.

If the Tory strategy is to say holding a poll during a pandemic is deeply irresponsible, I'd like the follow-up question to be 'why was going through with Brexit during the pandemic, and rebuffing the possibility of an extension to the transition period, not deeply irresponsible?'

Sam Russell · 12-04-2021 9:59am

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

From The Guardian:

If the Tory strategy is to say holding a poll during a pandemic is deeply irresponsible, I'd like the follow-up question to be 'why was going through with Brexit during the pandemic, and rebuffing the possibility of an extension to the transition period, not deeply irresponsible?'

Johnson is said to be adamant in private that he will not be the prime minister who permits a referendum

The quote is from the above post.

Was he not the person who said 'No Prime Minister could agree to putting a border in the Irish Sea' and is he not the Prime Minister that did put a border in the Irish Sea?

I think his tomb stone will carry the epithet 'Boris Johnson Lies Here!'

Mr.Nice Guy · 13-04-2021 6:47pm

https://twitter.com/olafdoesstuff/status/1381946527929806852

Good point by The Guardian's Jonathan Freedland on Johnson's stance regarding the referendum:

If they [the Tories] themselves are saying the only way to stop a second referendum is to prevent that majority, then logic says if they get the majority, there will be one.

Surely it will be very hard for the Tories to oppose another referendum if the pro-independence parties are given a mandate for one.

'Now is not the time' arguments risk coming across like 'we know what's best for you.'

A Dub in Glasgo · 13-04-2021 7:20pm

The Tories will ignore the mandate whilst undermining devolution

https://twitter.com/KevinJPringle/status/1381671903631409158

Water John · 14-04-2021 2:27pm

Do I remember in my history class, reading 'now is not the time' for Home Rule in Ireland at the outbreak of the Great War?

BonnieSituation · 14-04-2021 2:39pm

Water John wrote: »

Do I remember in my history class, reading 'now is not the time' for Home Rule in Ireland at the outbreak of the Great War?

Now is never the time for those who benefit from the status quo.

Look at the UI threads!

Mr.Nice Guy · 15-04-2021 12:19am

Martin Kettle with an interesting piece in The Guardian: 'Boris Johnson is telling Scotland that the union is no longer based on consent.'

Brexit has shown the union is no longer based on consent, but on law. The law is made at Westminster, which is sovereign. England dominates Westminster. The English majoritarian restraint that was so marked when governments were more sensitive to the need to accommodate differences is today like an abandoned house on the top of a crumbling cliff.

You can see the consequences in things like the demise of the Sewel convention, which held that devolved powers should not be altered without the consent of devolved governments. Brexit killed that. The Internal Market Act goes even further by enhancing UK government power. This week, the UK began a supreme court challenge against two Scottish bills on the grounds that they exceed Holyrood’s competence. But a decision to refuse a referendum for which Scots had voted would trump that. It would tell Scots there was no lawful way of leaving the UK.

The last sentence makes me wonder is there a chance of unrest in Scotland if the Tories were to dismiss a mandate for another referendum? We've seen how the clashes in Belfast made headlines around the world. Is it possible fringe elements might similarly act out their frustrations with street protests and the like if the Tories say 'you're not getting a referendum, like it or lump it.' Just how dangerous a game are the Tories playing?

Scottish independence

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