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Scottish independence

Faye McAleer

Would you be in support of a politico-economic union and formal international intergovernmental cooperation between the three Gaelic nations, (united) Ireland, (independent) Scotland and the Isle of Man similar to Benelux?

The Benelux cooperation has served as a model for the EU, and is basically an EU lite, comprising a customs union and a parliament as well as shared resources.

This could work between the three Gaelic nations and when we get reunification and the Scottish get independence, I think it is something good that should be created.

What do you think?

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Mr.Nice Guy

I saw this from pollster John Curtice in The Guardian:

However, election experts are warning that the political impact of the Alba party is extremely unpredictable and could inflict tactical problems for the pro-independence cause. John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, said Salmond faced a “substantial strategic challenge”.

“The success or otherwise of the enterprise will rest heavily on Mr Salmond’s personal popularity,” he added. “Though it might pick up some activists and perhaps SNP politicians the party will have little organisation or resource, and will be heavily reliant on his personality. However, Mr Salmond is not a very popular politician. According to YouGov and Opinium, only 14% of all voters have a favourable view of Mr Salmond. Among current SNP voters the figures are 16% and 18% respectively.

“Given [the SNP’s] current standing in the polls, they could well be dependent on picking up a handful of list seats in their weaker regions [to win an overall majority] – most obviously the South of Scotland and the Highlands. Mr Salmond might thus cost the SNP an overall majority – and that may well be much more important than the total number of pro-independence MSPs.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/mar/28/alex-salmonds-alba-party-is-a-danger-to-the-union-says-top-tory

It's going to be fascinating to see how Alba affect the outcome. I was excited enough about the election before Salmond's party entered the equation. Now, it's going to be even more dramatic.

A Dub in Glasgo

Another SNP MP defects to Alba Party

https://twitter.com/jamesmatthewsky/status/1375960982233710598

Water John

A Labour party of some fashion can, not only survive but thrive in an Ind Scotland, if it gets its act together. The Tories will disappear.

A Dub in Glasgo

The newly formed party from Salmond will definitely have an impact and it is looking likely to get list seats

https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1375780138005245952

The Tories are trying to get Labour to do their dirty work again

https://twitter.com/Douglas4Moray/status/1375747889805336577

A Dub in Glasgo

Leonard Hofstadter wrote: »

So it sounds like if anything, the entry of this party is more likely to damage the unionist parties and thus the parties in favour of another referendum are going to have no trouble getting a majority of the seats in Holyrood, or have I misunderstood?

A fine line to try and game the system but yes that is the intention

A Dub in Glasgo

AFI have already thrown in the towel

https://twitter.com/action4indy/status/1375555598637527040

Leonard Hofstadter

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

In addition to my post above, I looked into it a bit more and found this and it would not appear to harm the independence parties as much as I said earlier. Could be an interesting result

https://twitter.com/bnhw_/status/1375461477834973184

So it sounds like if anything, the entry of this party is more likely to damage the unionist parties and thus the parties in favour of another referendum are going to have no trouble getting a majority of the seats in Holyrood, or have I misunderstood?

Larbre34

Salmond is only doing this so the SNP *might* have to come begging to him for things down the line. Personally I don't think he has a hope. Its too late to build anything for this election and too long to survive until the next Westminster poll. Why would any ambitious indy head associate with anyone but the SNP?

A Dub in Glasgo

In addition to my post above, I looked into it a bit more and found this and it would not appear to harm the independence parties as much as I said earlier. Could be an interesting result

https://twitter.com/bnhw_/status/1375461477834973184

Water John

Is Alba to be a personality party? Besides for indy what will be its policies? Nothing wrong with him doing it, but it needs to add to the mix not subtract.

A Dub in Glasgo

It is standing only on the list vote so no chance of taking votes off the SNP in the constituency vote. The list uses the D'Hont method to calculate the seats so a list only party contesting the regional seats could win seats, however these will be at the expense of the other independence parties (SNP, Greens, AFI and ISP). Up to now, the Greens have supplemented the SNP to provide the pro-independence majority in parliament.

The problem here is there are too many options on the list and it risks splitting the whole thing. We might see consolidation amongst the newer pro-independence parties. The real issue for the SNP is if they do not do as well on the constituecy vote, they may not get enough top up list seats as the independence vote is split. In all honesty, the SNP have allowed this to happen by driving out dissention in the SNP and narrowing the independence message

Leonard Hofstadter

I see Alex Salmond is going to set up a new party called 'Alba'. Obviously it's going to be campaigning in favour of independence.

Anyone here think it's got a chance of taking votes from Sturgeon and the SNP in the upcoming elections?

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19190356.alex-salmond-lead-new-alba-party-scottish-parliament-election/

bob mcbob

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

This is the latest Conservative idea to bind the Union together:

https://twitter.com/BBCScotlandNews/status/1374785263851995136

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1374760252567093251

It won't apply to NI because even the Tories seemingly know that's a can of worms not to open.

Not sure this idea will work out well in Scotland. I don't get the impression the electorate will be too keen on stunts like this. The SNP's response:

I think this article in the Guardian sums things up for me -

One of the most self-contradictory aspects of the government’s hyper-unionism is the way it clearly plays to English resentments, raising the flag to declare war on the perfidious Scots, and thereby deepening the UK’s fault lines.

Shall we at last face the facts? Even if the institutions of the United Kingdom creak on unchanged or are somehow saved by a new federalism, as a meaningful political entity the UK is all but over. Independence is partly a state of mind, and for very different reasons, a large number of people in Scotland, Wales and England have got there already. So, aside from its use whenever the Olympics come round, the union jack may be beyond rescue – best left to the kind of opportunists who think they can use it as they please but fail to grasp the downsides.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/21/british-politicians-union-jack-flag

BonnieSituation

The SNP's response is bang on. It's exactly how I feel when I come across fervent Unionists who post like scared cats.

I was hoping they'd be thick-headed and oblivious enough to try this in the North. Dang.

Mr.Nice Guy

This is the latest Conservative idea to bind the Union together:

https://twitter.com/BBCScotlandNews/status/1374785263851995136

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1374760252567093251

It won't apply to NI because even the Tories seemingly know that's a can of worms not to open.

Not sure this idea will work out well in Scotland. I don't get the impression the electorate will be too keen on stunts like this. The SNP's response:

'If the Tories think an overload of Union Jacks on buildings is the answer to promote the strength of the Union, it shows how thin the case for the Union is."

BonnieSituation

Water John wrote: »

That's the Committee whose report was leaked. Opposition have majority on it and no matter what Sturgeon's evidence was, they seemed to have made up their minds before it. Basically they formed the opinion that Sturgeon must have known, as they believe it unlikely that she did not know what her leader was up to.

Exactly. As I said, it broke along party lines, so very little that you can take from it.

Water John

BonnieSituation wrote: »

TBF, I misread that story. Seems there was another committee vote that was separate to the report yesterday.

Given that the vote broke along party lines, it's hard to know what to take from it.

There's no new information to come out of it anyway.

That's the Committee whose report was leaked. Opposition have majority on it and no matter what Sturgeon's evidence was, they seemed to have made up their minds before it. Basically they formed the opinion that Sturgeon must have known, as they believe it unlikely that she did not know what her leader was up to.

BonnieSituation

BonnieSituation wrote: »

That's an impressive twist on that story from the Guardian. Well played.

TBF, I misread that story. Seems there was another committee vote that was separate to the report yesterday.

Given that the vote broke along party lines, it's hard to know what to take from it.

There's no new information to come out of it anyway.

Sam Russell

BonnieSituation wrote: »

That's an impressive twist on that story from the Guardian. Well played.

Does the Guardian have much readership in Scotland?

BonnieSituation

rock22 wrote: »

Sadly , the English media are now reporting the same old story as "breaking news"

I suspect there will be a huge effort to demonise SNP coming up to the elections in May

That's an impressive twist on that story from the Guardian. Well played.

ancapailldorcha

Markcheese wrote: »

What would scottish independence do to brexit ?
I'm assuming it wouldn't derail it , scotland is a relatively small economy compared to england/uk ,
And considering how much of it's trade scotland does with the rest of the uk , I assuming that joining the eu would be economically difficult .. at least to start with ,

Nothing to be honest. Brexit is an English (& Welsh) decision. Scotland will have to negotiate with the English and see what sort of deal can be done while having talks with the EU but the London-Brussels relationship will continue unaltered and unimpeded.

Water John

Markcheese wrote: »

What would scottish independence do to brexit ?
I'm assuming it wouldn't derail it , scotland is a relatively small economy compared to england/uk ,
And considering how much of it's trade scotland does with the rest of the uk , I assuming that joining the eu would be economically difficult .. at least to start with ,

I would think Scotland would join the EEA, quite quickly.

rock22

pixelburp wrote: »

I'm sure it'll be reported in the English press with the same prominence the accusations received. Derisive snort.

Should make the next polls or two interesting, though as we know in politics, just being near a controversy, without actually being part of it, can leave a stink.

Sadly , the English media are now reporting the same old story as "breaking news"

I suspect there will be a huge effort to demonise SNP coming up to the elections in May

Markcheese

What would scottish independence do to brexit ?
I'm assuming it wouldn't derail it , scotland is a relatively small economy compared to england/uk ,
And considering how much of it's trade scotland does with the rest of the uk , I assuming that joining the eu would be economically difficult .. at least to start with ,

Larbre34

Water John wrote: »

If an ind inquiry means anything the Scot Tories should respect the outcome.
For us in Ireland, he has credence as a former AG here.

Former DPP, he was never AG.

He did head the AGs office, which is say to he was a senior Civil Servant as opposed to the AG herself, who is a Government appointment to Cabinet.

BonnieSituation

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't see how that suggests that it's "on the cards". They need Johnson's assent and he won't give it.

It's on the cards by virtue of them publishing the bill and then seeking a mandate in May's elections.

That BJ won't assent is neither here nor there.
The Scottish Government can only work within the democratic institutions that exist.

The shambles of the Tory attacks on Sturgeon and the SNP the last month show exactly the sort of approach that will continue.

Every week at PMQ's, no matter what the question from Ian Blackford, Johnson ends his 'answer' with, "...and the the SNP just want a divisive referendum". The contempt that Scotland has been treated with by the Tories means that we know that they'll cry about this in the fashion that they have, but with it being published, they have to ask questions on it now that it's on the cards.

Water John

If an ind inquiry means anything the Scot Tories should respect the outcome.
For us in Ireland, he has credence as a former AG here.

Mr.Nice Guy

The Greens have confirmed they won't support a Tory no-confidence motion following today's outcome.

https://twitter.com/lynseybews/status/1374041495553118209

Interesting to see what the Scottish Tories' strategy will be now. Do they continue the attacks on Sturgeon, or will they cool off?

ancapailldorcha

I don't see how that suggests that it's "on the cards". They need Johnson's assent and he won't give it.

Capt'n Midnight

Indyref2 on the cards now

Scottish independence: Draft bill for indyref2 published

It wants to hold indyref2 after the pandemic but "in the first half of the new parliamentary term".

The SNP says it will attempt to pass the bill if May's election returns a majority of MSPs who back independence.

...
Ms Sturgeon has not ruled out going to court to settle the question of whether Holyrood could legislate for a legal referendum without Westminster's backing.