Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

Tyrone212 wrote: »

My cousin 31 has been called for his vaccine next week. He had bad asthma as a child, not so much now. They must be getting through group 4 fast enough if he's been called.

That's shocking if true.

We are making a balls of this.

Can we ever get anything right?

So come here to me. We’re being told that this new variant is “more deadly” by Leo but the hospital figures aren’t showing that at all. They’re declining quite rapidly actually. We could actually have <10 in ICU in a matter of weeks. So what’s all the hysterics about

Wolf359f wrote: »

May have something to do with the fact we're in a lockdown and currently vaccinating the most at risk?

But the figures are still relatively high and we’re being led to believe its rampant in the community. If the most vulnerable are being vaccinated then let’s open up as soon as possible because surely this new variant is no more deadly than all the other variants gone before it? If it was then hospital admissions would be shooting up and the opposite is happening

retro:electro wrote: »

So come here to me. We’re being told that this new variant is “more deadly” by Leo but the hospital figures aren’t showing that at all. They’re declining quite rapidly actually. We could actually have <10 in ICU in a matter of weeks. So what’s all the hysterics about

The irony of course is that after vaccinating the HCW’s and many vulnerable, the anti vaccer’s aren’t who the media told us they were.

Who can seriously believe that having 500k vaccines administered won’t make a monumental difference to hospital numbers

retro:electro wrote: »

So come here to me. We’re being told that this new variant is “more deadly” by Leo but the hospital figures aren’t showing that at all. They’re declining quite rapidly actually. We could actually have <10 in ICU in a matter of weeks. So what’s all the hysterics about

A peanut allergy isn't deadly until the person comes in contact with peanuts. If infections are being kept low how can you expect deaths to be high? Your consideration of the hospitalisations makes no sense in this context.

It's still an open question whether the variant is more severe illness wise. It's pretty much accepted at this point that the variant is considerably more transmissible which unfortunately does have ramifications for us all.

Wolf359f wrote: »

Vaccinate all HCW and all over 65 and instead of peaking at 2000+ people in hospital in January, we would have peaked at 1200 (deaths would have been significantly reduced though) - we could have stayed open for maybe 2 weeks more before we breached that 2000 though.

Pardon my ignorance how are you arriving at the 1200 peak?

Turtwig wrote: »

Pardon my ignorance how are you arriving at the 1200 peak?

About 60% of all hospitalizations are under 65, if the over 65 were all vaccinated, you would expect the number peaking in hospital would be 60% of that.
And yes I know you would expect a 65+ person to spend longer in hospital that a 20 yo etc... so the numbers of days a person under 65 would spend in hospital would be less. There's a lot of variables, it's just to make a point that if 65+ were all vaccinated we will still have younger people being hospitalized and it would be noticable.

retro:electro wrote: »

But the figures are still relatively high and we’re being led to believe its rampant in the community. If the most vulnerable are being vaccinated then let’s open up as soon as possible because surely this new variant is no more deadly than all the other variants gone before it? If it was then hospital admissions would be shooting up and the opposite is happening

It would appear that the UK variant, B1.1.7. 
is indeed different to the previous varient in that it is estimated to be up to 70% more transmissible.

More transmissible means it spreads between people easier and results in higher case numbers in any given period compared to the original variant here. As a result of this new varient and despite vaccination - new case numbers appear to have plateaued



It is indeed possible that vaccinations are helping to reduce hospital numbers directly and directly.

However with the increased transmissibility of the UK varient- that means that if we open up too soon ie before we get a large number of people vaccinated - the likleyhood is that case numbers and hospital numbers will also rise.

And not necessarily as a result of those who are 'vulnerable'.

The most recent data (up to 31st of January 2021 when just under 200,000 vaccinations had been administrated) shows that approx 75% of all those in hospital with covid have no underlying condition.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40237760.html

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Since when?

The HSE currently lists for cohort 4

It seems different than on gov.ie

Also, gov.ie don't seem to offer the daily updates on case and county numbers.

Turtwig wrote: »

It's mixed between both depending on severity, control and medication required. Clinical history would play a part too. Some folks with asthma are moderately higher risk than general population. Others are extremely higher risk. The latter of these would fall into cohort 4.

Not saying you are wrong in practice but on gov.ie site severe asthma is in group 7

https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/39038-provisional-vaccine-allocation-groups/#aged-16-64-and-at-high-risk-of-severe-covid-19-disease

Wolf359f wrote: »

That's group 7: High Risk.
Group 4 is very high risk.
?

Yeah rechecking you are correct.

TheDoctor wrote: »

Hospital figures at 8pm

Total 304 (down from 308 last night)
ICU 66 (down from 75 last night - 4 deaths)

Last Friday
Total 329
ICU 87

Where's this plateau in hospital numbers they keep telling us about?

Wolf359f wrote: »

About 60% of all hospitalizations are under 65, if the over 65 were all vaccinated, you would expect the number peaking in hospital would be 60% of that.
And yes I know you would expect a 65+ person to spend longer in hospital that a 20 yo etc... so the numbers of days a person under 65 would spend in hospital would be less. There's a lot of variables, it's just to make a point that if 65+ were all vaccinated we will still have younger people being hospitalized and it would be noticable.

These calculations are ignoring the spread due to HCWs themselves

Which although inevitable, was still a cause

Kidney recipients in their early 30s revived their vaccine this week

We are in a far better place than people think

Always_Running wrote: »

Rarely goes down any Saturday, Sunday so we'll likely have to wait until next week before we see hospital numbers under 300.

I actually meant, it looks like the stagnation is behind us, but it's going to go up because of the weekend effect. Some people will see that and think it's still stagnating.

Wolf359f wrote: »

It's hard to get direct figures.
The % hospitalized is based on hospital admissions, not hospital acquired covid.
The peak of 2000 certainly included hospital acquired for sure.
Fact remains ~60% of admissions are in under 65's.

I just hate people assuming because most deaths occur in over 65's that means most hospital admissions are over 65, which is not the case.

Vaccinating Cohort 4 should make a massive difference.
We certainly are in a better place, but there's too much uncertainty within Government. Personally I think Micheal Martin should **** or get off the pot!

The 14 day incidence reports from the hspc are a useful source of data.

With regard to hospital acquired covid the most recent report shows that Healtcare acquired infection (Covid) is at about 2.2%

That's all healthcare settings. Not just hospitals

Healthcare setting acquired: patient ~ 1.54%
Healthcare setting acquired: staff ~ 0.70%


https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/covid-1914-dayepidemiologyreports/COVID-19%2014%20day%20epidemiology%20report_20210325_WEB.pdf