What exactly is happening with AstraZeneca?

landofthetree · 26-03-2021 12:24PM

Strazdas wrote: »

This narrative that the EU have "totally messed up" is coming straight from the Daily Express and rabid Brexiteers on social media.

Messed up what exactly? Revealed yesterday that 88m doses have been delivered to EU states and about to rapidly accelerate. Pfizer and Moderna deliveries have gone to plan : J & J about to be rolled out.

The French media,Dutch media,German media etc are all blaming the EU commission.

The European Union has “done everything wrong” and is facing a “vaccination disaster”, a top German journalist has admitted.

Writing in the Times on Monday, Peter Tiede – chief political reporter for German daily newspaper Bild – points the finger at Ursula von der Leyen, the embattled chief of the European Commission, for a “mess” that has “disgraced Europe”.

“Oh, how we Germans made fun of those strange Brexit birds with the weird Euro-populist Boris Johnson at their head,” Tiede wrote. “Of all people, it was Johnson who got it right: he ordered vaccines for the British in time, generously and sufficiently. In surplus!”

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/we-screwed-up-german-journo-laments-eus-vaccine-mess-218691/

Tippbhoy1 · 26-03-2021 12:35PM

landofthetree wrote: »

The French media,Dutch media,German media etc are all blaming the EU commission.

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/we-screwed-up-german-journo-laments-eus-vaccine-mess-218691/

Oh god. When you are defending the British media and accusing the European media, you don’t use an article from the British media to make your point.

Strazdas · 26-03-2021 12:41PM

landofthetree wrote: »

The French media,Dutch media,German media etc are all blaming the EU commission.

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/we-screwed-up-german-journo-laments-eus-vaccine-mess-218691/

Bild in particular have an agenda against Ursula von der Leyen. They hate her basically and it's pretty personal (not sure of the ins and outs but it dates back to her time as German defence minister).

Sam Russell · 26-03-2021 12:45PM

Strazdas wrote: »

This narrative that the EU have "totally messed up" is coming straight from the Daily Express and rabid Brexiteers on social media.

Messed up what exactly? Revealed yesterday that 88m doses have been delivered to EU states and about to rapidly accelerate. Pfizer and Moderna deliveries have gone to plan : J & J about to be rolled out.

The UK chose to extend the time before the second dose out to 90 days so they could give more people the first dose earlier than otherwise. Now this was against the advice of Pfizer, but they went ahead anyway.

That was in January - 90 days ago. Now they have suddenly run out of vaccines for the second doses.

The HSE are now starting to vaccinate the over 70s, and should have given them the second dose to all over 70 by the second week in May.

Will the UK have the second dose to all over 70 by the second week in May?

They still have a horrifying death toll - 126,000 deaths and 4.3 million cases. Are the vaccines bringing the numbers down?

robinph · 26-03-2021 12:56PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

The UK chose to extend the time before the second dose out to 90 days so they could give more people the first dose earlier than otherwise. Now this was against the advice of Pfizer, but they went ahead anyway.

That was in January - 90 days ago. Now they have suddenly run out of vaccines for the second doses.

Are they running out?

Not seen anything to suggest that people are getting told there is a shortage of second doses available. Less than the half a million a day first doses which they have been giving, yes, but nothing about second dose shortages.

josip · 26-03-2021 01:00PM

robinph wrote: »

Are they running out?

Not seen anything to suggest that people are getting told there is a shortage of second doses available. Less than the half a million a day first doses which they have been giving, yes, but nothing about second dose shortages.

I think the salient part in your post is in bold.
People were also not told that domestically produced AZ was only a small part of their overall supply.

greyday · 26-03-2021 01:01PM

Merkel wanted Van lynden to be relevant and concocted this plan to have the commission order the vaccines rather than the Countries which had taken it upon themselves to order on behalf of the EU, The German health minister was basically forced to issue an appeal to Van Lynden asking for help in finalising the contract even though all the nitty gritty had been done, Miss Relevance then took over to great fanfare only for the contracts to take another 3 months to sign with no clause stating the EU was to be supplied first as the UK had inserted in their contracts...blame Boris though, Van Lynden is a goddess that can do no wrong.

astrofool · 26-03-2021 01:02PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Pretty much same rate as Ireland in last week when you adjust 13.5x population difference, type into google on desktop browser

Ireland Covid Rate

And compare against

UK Covid Rate

search results, they show detailed statistics and graphs

Interestingly Ireland got 2nd wave in December after uk but came down faster and before Uk, of course second wave was caused by the Brits having a fertile breeding ground for variants

UK death count due to COVID is 2.5 times that of Ireland per capita.

Strazdas · 26-03-2021 01:12PM

greyday wrote: »

Merkel wanted Van lynden to be relevant and concocted this plan to have the commission order the vaccines rather than the Countries which had taken it upon themselves to order on behalf of the EU, The German health minister was basically forced to issue an appeal to Van Lynden asking for help in finalising the contract even though all the nitty gritty had been done, Miss Relevance then took over to great fanfare only for the contracts to take another 3 months to sign with no clause stating the EU was to be supplied first as the UK had inserted in their contracts...blame Boris though, Van Lynden is a goddess that can do no wrong.

There were definitely problems with the contracts, but something being ignored is there are nowhere near enough vaccines being produced (yet) for the EU.

Even the US with its frantic production across multiples sites has managed to administer only 130m doses. Well negotiated contracts would only have speeded up EU deliveries a little bit.

robinph · 26-03-2021 01:12PM

josip wrote: »

I think the salient part in your post is in bold.
People were also not told that domestically produced AZ was only a small part of their overall supply.

Think we'd hear pretty quickly if people were getting turned away from their 2nd dose appointments.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/mar/25/eu-leaders-told-bloc-has-sent-21m-covid-vaccine-doses-to-the-uk?

In an attempt to garner explicit support for the move, Von der Leyen disclosed to the leaders that 77m doses made by producers in the EU had been shipped to 33 countries since 1 December.

Of those, 21m went to the UK, of which just over 1 million were from AstraZeneca, with the rest supplied by Pfizer.

So with a bit over 10 million Pfizer doses given so far would seem they have the rest safe in a big freezer somewhere so no problems there.

The Astra Zeneca second doses won't start ramping up in number for another month yet I think, by which time there will be that other batch from SII delivered, and clearly there is a bigger supply of Astra Zeneca locally than from just the EU if that amounts to just 1million doses.

Bit cynical · 26-03-2021 01:17PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Spell out exactly how EU messed up

As far as I can see their only mistake was trusting in AZ to deliver after taking a third of a billion euro

Although both the EU and the EU suffered shortfalls from AZ, the UK seem to have done a much better job in protecting themselves and ensuring that they still got as much of the vaccine delivered and into arms without instituting export bans or the like.

In general the UK have done much better to date than the EU with about three times as many shots administered. Initially this was dismissed as being due to them starting a couple of weeks earlier but even now the rate at which they are injecting the virus is about twice that of the EU per capita and so the gap is actually widening.

Yet it is the UK coming in for severe criticism not the EU.

Wolf359f · 26-03-2021 01:19PM

robinph wrote: »

Think we'd hear pretty quickly if people were getting turned away from their 2nd dose appointments.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/mar/25/eu-leaders-told-bloc-has-sent-21m-covid-vaccine-doses-to-the-uk?

So with a bit over 10 million Pfizer doses given so far would seem they have the rest safe in a big freezer somewhere so no problems there.

The Astra Zeneca second doses won't start ramping up in number for another month yet I think, by which time there will be that other batch from SII delivered, and clearly there is a bigger supply of Astra Zeneca locally than from just the EU if that amounts to just 1million doses.

I think they have administered at least 15mil. When the AZ blood clotting issues arose and UK said they didn't see if of the brain clots (until they magically found 5 or 7) they publish a report and it compared 11mil AZ jabs vs 15mil Pfizer. Definitely over 10mil.

Bit cynical · 26-03-2021 01:28PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Yep posters keep regurgitating uk tabloid rags headlines but when one actually looks at facts and data, we in Ireland are doing well compared to silliness next door.

I think we have done some things better in Ireland with Covid-19, but in terms of vaccines, I would be interested to know why you believe that.

Strazdas · 26-03-2021 01:30PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

Although both the EU and the EU suffered shortfalls from AZ, the UK seem to have done a much better job in protecting themselves and ensuring that they still got as much of the vaccine delivered and into arms without instituting export bans or the like.

In general the UK have done much better to date than the EU with about three times as many shots administered. Initially this was dismissed as being due to them starting a couple of weeks earlier but even now the rate at which they are injecting the virus is about twice that of the EU per capita and so the gap is actually widening.

Yet it is the UK coming in for severe criticism not the EU.

Yes to all of the above, but the elephant in the room is that the UK is a much smaller territory. The UK has given around 31m doses : for the EU to match that per capita, they would have to have given 200m+ doses by now.

There are nowhere near that number of vaccines available in Europe (EU states haven't even received 100m yet....the 200m simply doesn't exist).

robinph · 26-03-2021 01:33PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

I think they have administered at least 15mil. When the AZ blood clotting issues arose and UK said they didn't see if of the brain clots (until they magically found 5 or 7) they publish a report and it compared 11mil AZ jabs vs 15mil Pfizer. Definitely over 10mil.

Most recent numbers I've seen someone figure out, which is a week or so old, but still relevant in comparing the rates for each vaccine was giving 10.9 million Pfizer first doses plus 1.3 million second doses against 13.7 million Astra Zeneca first doses and no second doses as yet.

The Pfizer first doses given initially were a bit lumpy from one week to the next but they seemed to stop giving any more Pfizer once they reached 10.9 million in the week of the 7th March. They don't have data for this week of 21st March yet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1I7DUw8YR6h314dDiIikWbfyOI2ANlgRvLeApwW28br4/edit#gid=810921807

Strazdas · 26-03-2021 01:40PM

robinph wrote: »

Most recent numbers I've seen someone figure out, which is a week or so old, but still relevant in comparing the rates for each vaccine was giving 10.9 million Pfizer first doses plus 1.3 million second doses against 13.7 million Astra Zeneca first doses and no second doses as yet.

The Pfizer first doses given initially were a bit lumpy from one week to the next but they seemed to stop giving any more Pfizer once they reached 10.9 million in the week of the 7th March. They don't have data for this week of 21st March yet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1I7DUw8YR6h314dDiIikWbfyOI2ANlgRvLeApwW28br4/edit#gid=810921807

Are the UK stockpiling Pfizer? The EU seemed to intimate yesterday that 20m Pfizer doses had been exported from EU plants to Britain so far.

robinph · 26-03-2021 01:45PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Are the UK stockpiling Pfizer? The EU seemed to intimate yesterday that 20m Pfizer doses had been exported from EU plants to Britain so far.

Probably. But they will be going into arms as second doses at a rate of knots now and for the next month.

I think of their 40m order they have only had that 21m, and so have only given just shy of 11m Pfizer. Maybe the plan is that the next 19m will be used for potential booster shots for those Pfizer people next year if it is determined that boosters are needed. Might be planning on 10 m single shots next November and then another 9m the year after.

26-03-2021 01:46PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Are the UK stockpiling Pfizer? The EU seemed to intimate yesterday that 20m Pfizer doses had been exported from EU plants to Britain so far.

Possibly ensuring they have enough for 2nd doses given the export ban threats.

Wolf359f · 26-03-2021 01:47PM

robinph wrote: »

Most recent numbers I've seen someone figure out, which is a week or so old, but still relevant in comparing the rates for each vaccine was giving 10.9 million Pfizer first doses plus 1.3 million second doses against 13.7 million Astra Zeneca first doses and no second doses as yet.

The Pfizer first doses given initially were a bit lumpy from one week to the next but they seemed to stop giving any more Pfizer once they reached 10.9 million in the week of the 7th March. They don't have data for this week of 21st March yet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1I7DUw8YR6h314dDiIikWbfyOI2ANlgRvLeApwW28br4/edit#gid=810921807

Ah sorry, I forgot about second doses!

CIARAN_BOYLE · 26-03-2021 01:48PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Are the UK stockpiling Pfizer? The EU seemed to intimate yesterday that 20m Pfizer doses had been exported from EU plants to Britain so far.

Was the Von Der Leyn statement that 21 million doses of Pfizer(I didn't see any split AZ vs Pfizer).

No one really has a problem with Pfizer being exported to the UK. They are hitting their European contracts.

People are assuming a lot of EU manufactured doses of AZ are going to the UK.

robinph · 26-03-2021 01:49PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Possibly ensuring they have enough for 2nd doses given the export ban threats.

Don't think it would have needed to be an export ban threat, just they only ordered 40m anyway so likely that their deal was just for half now and half at some point in the future if still needed and they never planned to use it for more than 10million people.

Most countries have ordered several multiples of what is needed for their entire population, none of them want them all to be delivered at the same time.

Strazdas · 26-03-2021 01:56PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Was the Von Der Leyn statement that 21 million doses of Pfizer(I didn't see any split AZ vs Pfizer).

No one really has a problem with Pfizer being exported to the UK. They are hitting their European contracts.

People are assuming a lot of EU manufactured doses of AZ are going to the UK.

Yes, there was a split in fact - they appear to suggest that 20m Pfizer and 1m AZ doses had been exported to the UK.

I don't see any issue with Pfizer doses being sent to Britain either. If all of the numbers in the posts above are correct, it would suggest AZ UK are manufacturing about 1m doses a week for the British market.

Bit cynical · 26-03-2021 02:17PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Because the decision to space doses went against advice of manufacturers and is not what the trials have tested for.

Worse decision was clearly made for political reasons, science is only coming out now

Uks live experimentation on the population might yet spectacularly backfire

However the spacing of dosing on trials will be subject to time constraints. I have read that larger spacing is actually more beneficial.

Of course every decision has risks and you are right to point out that it could even now backfire but so far judging from the results, the UK appear to have made the correct decision. If they were still an EU member they would be very close to the bottom on daily deaths as well as infections per capita.

Furthermore decision to antagonise Europeans and us in Ireland instead of cooperating could also derail whole efforts.

In short what should have been a public health issue was politicised and wrapped in the flag for nefarious reasons

But it seems to me that it is simply the EU choosing to get angry. I have not seen evidence yet that the UK has been underhand in its vaccination procurement policy. Why should the UK be criticised for simply looking after its own people?

26-03-2021 02:17PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Because the decision to space doses went against advice of manufacturers and is not what the trials have tested for.

Worse decision was clearly made for political reasons, science is only coming out now

Uks live experimentation on the population might yet spectacularly backfire

Furthermore decision to antagonise Europeans and us in Ireland instead of cooperating could also derail whole efforts.

In short what should have been a public health issue was politicised and wrapped in the flag for nefarious reasons

damn those politicians and their union jack waving unscientific approach

https://www.gov.scot/publications/foi-202100141289/

robinph · 26-03-2021 02:19PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Because the decision to space doses went against advice of manufacturers and is not what the trials have tested for.

Worse decision was clearly made for political reasons, science is only coming out now

Uks live experimentation on the population might yet spectacularly backfire

How do you see it potentially backfiring? Are people who have only had one dose going to suddenly become infectious? Will the 70%+ protection that they have from dose one disappear?

Yes, it went against what Pfizer were saying, but that was purely down to the shorter delay was all that they had tested for so was all that they could recommend. Nothing about any previous vaccination would suggest that delaying was a problem and I think in the case of virtually all other vaccines the longer delay is shown to work better. So a minor risk that they don't end up with the 90%+ effectiveness, but far better to have 20million people vaccinated at 70% than 10million at 90% if there is a global pandemic going on and you don't know exactly what is going to happen in the next three months or even three weeks.

Just get the jabs in the arms asap, worry about if it is 70% or 90% effective later on as it really doesn't matter at this point in time. Next year is when you can start maybe having studies into which vaccine and which time delay gave exactly which level of protection and then use that for future reference.

odyssey06 · 26-03-2021 02:23PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Because the decision to space doses went against advice of manufacturers and is not what the trials have tested for.
Worse decision was clearly made for political reasons, science is only coming out now
Uks live experimentation on the population might yet spectacularly backfire
Furthermore decision to antagonise Europeans and us in Ireland instead of cooperating could also derail whole efforts.
In short what should have been a public health issue was politicised and wrapped in the flag for nefarious reasons

The trials were tested for a shorter duration to expedite the trials not because that was the period they thought most likely to produce the best results.
The manufacturers can only recommend what they trialled.
But nor did their trials show reduced effectiveness to greater spacing- they just never examined it.

The decision to space the doses was based on general principles from previous vaccines e.g. Andrew Pollard, the head of the Oxford Vaccine Group and chief investigator into the trial of this vaccine, said that extending the gap between vaccines made biological sense. “Generally, a longer gap between vaccine doses leads to a better immune response, with the second dose causing a better boost. "

With HPV vaccine for girls, for example, the gap is a year and gives better responses than a one month gap.

This is not science "that just came out now", this is coming from people with decades long expertise with vaccines and immunology.

To suggest there was no scientific basis for the spacing is without foundation.

odyssey06 · 26-03-2021 02:35PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Point at the scientific basis at the time decision was made, once again hindsight is being used to wave away arguments
Need I remind you coronavirus is not same virus as causes hpv and some of these vaccines are using new technologies

It's not hindsight, it's the scientific rationale for why they took the decision they did.
Boris didn't just pick the length of the spacing out of thin air.

Wolf359f · 26-03-2021 02:38PM

robinph wrote: »

How do you see it potentially backfiring? Are people who have only had one dose going to suddenly become infectious? Will the 70%+ protection that they have from dose one disappear?

Yes, it went against what Pfizer were saying, but that was purely down to the shorter delay was all that they had tested for so was all that they could recommend. Nothing about any previous vaccination would suggest that delaying was a problem and I think in the case of virtually all other vaccines the longer delay is shown to work better. So a minor risk that they don't end up with the 90%+ effectiveness, but far better to have 20million people vaccinated at 70% than 10million at 90% if there is a global pandemic going on and you don't know exactly what is going to happen in the next three months or even three weeks.

Just get the jabs in the arms asap, worry about if it is 70% or 90% effective later on as it really doesn't matter at this point in time. Next year is when you can start maybe having studies into which vaccine and which time delay gave exactly which level of protection and then use that for future reference.

Was there not a chart in the report, where after the 4 weeks, the efficacy in Pfizer started to drop, while AZ's continues to increase?
If it was dropping after 4 weeks, it's hardly going to suddenly increase.
Now if they had the same study after 8/12 weeks to see, that would confirm it.

26-03-2021 02:39PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Point at the scientific basis at the time decision was made, once again hindsight is being used to wave away arguments

Need I remind you coronavirus is not same virus as causes hpv and some of these vaccines are using new technologies

I'll try again, it is all here https://www.gov.scot/publications/foi-202100141289/

robinph · 26-03-2021 02:52PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

1. Being reckless with vaccinations spacing is incredibly risky, if something went wrong it would have setback UK, it’s like getting into a rocket without an escape system, you may get into orbit but you may also splat. Yes science is coming out NOW after the deed is done.

More like being on a plane flying towards some cliffs and deciding to jump out and take your chances swimming in the sea. If you stay in the plane you definitely go splat in the cliffs, if you jump out you might make it.

There was plenty of science to show that a longer gap between doses would work and certainly not be a worse outcome based on years and years of using various other vaccines. There just wasn't the data specifically for that vaccine because, global pandemic and needing to get the vaccines trialed quickly.

Likewise, whilst there wasn't the trail data for significant number of over 65's for the Astra Zeneca vaccine, there was absolutely nothing to suggest that it would behave differently in over 65's to for the miniscule risk was worth just getting it into arms asap. Now seems that more recent studies show that over 65's have an even stronger immune response to the Astra Zeneca vaccine... but even if it was only half as effective for some weird reason in people who had free bus travel, it's still far better in their arms than not and is more useful in the arm of a 65 year old whilst being 50% effective than in the arm of a 20 year old and 70% effective.

What exactly is happening with AstraZeneca?

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