2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

DataDude · 25-03-2021 05:00PM

awec wrote: »

What about something like https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/3-glendale-delgany-wicklow/4478960 DataDude?

A good bit cheaper but still very nice (IMO), not as swish as the Redwood ones but in a better location.

Really really like this house and I’ve no idea why it hasn’t sold yet. To me it seems a very fair price. I’ve called about it a couple of times and will hopefully go to view once restrictions lift.

I’m being really fussy here but ideally I’d like to be walking distance from the dart if possible, as drive to + dart from Greystones is a tough commute even if only 2/3 times per week.

But in a couple of moments of exasperation at missing out on ‘dream homes’, we have come very close to buying that to get ourselves onto the ladder.

hometruths · 25-03-2021 05:03PM

fliball123 wrote: »

Really?? Can you not think this through yourself..

Yes, I have done so. I am trying to understand whether or not you have done so, and what you concluded? Or did you just read somewhere that bubbles are built on easy credit?

fliball123 · 25-03-2021 05:05PM

Browney7 wrote: »

Jan 16 the index stood at 104. Jan 17 the national RPI index was at 113. At Jan 18 it increased to 126.5. Jan 19 it increased 133.1. In Jan 13 it stood at 75.2. Those numbers show strong price growth and yet supply is still incredibly week.

The thing with bubbles is you can only prove they are bubbles after they pop

Here is a link to the trend pay attention to 2017 to 2020 prices went up then down in 2018 then back up in 2019 then back down 2020 and are currently on the way back up this is not how a bubble acts. In a bubble price blow up hense the name.

https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/housing-index

fliball123 · 25-03-2021 05:07PM

schmittel wrote: »

Yes, I have done so. I am trying to understand whether or not you have done so, and what you concluded? Or did you just read somewhere that bubbles are built on easy credit?

Show me one bubble in history not predicated on easy access to cheap credit?

Hubertj · 25-03-2021 05:07PM

schmittel wrote: »

I think Enniskerry is a very pretty little village but it just feels like it is the wrong side of the N11 in my opinion. I think it used to achieve a premium compared to Delgany/Greystones but I suspect those days are over.

Enniskerry is grand. In laws lived there for 3+ years and left recently enough. There isn’t a lot to it - you do have nice things like powerscourt close by but then it’s a car journey to anywhere. It’s fine but that’s all

hometruths · 25-03-2021 05:12PM

fliball123 wrote: »

Show me one bubble in history not predicated on easy access to cheap credit?

Are you saying the reason that you can only have a bubble with easy access to cheap credit is because every bubble in history has been built on cheap credit?

I was asking if you could explain your understanding of why easy cheap credit is an essential ingredient? Can you do that?

awec · 25-03-2021 05:13PM

DataDude wrote: »

Really really like this house and I’ve no idea why it hasn’t sold yet. To me it seems a very fair price. I’ve called about it a couple of times and will hopefully go to view once restrictions lift.

I’m being really fussy here but ideally I’d like to be walking distance from the dart if possible, as drive to + dart from Greystones is a tough commute even if only 2/3 times per week.

But in a couple of moments of exasperation at missing out on ‘dream homes’, we have come very close to buying that to get ourselves onto the ladder.

The developer of that house is Wood Group who have built a tonne of houses in Greystones, they're the ones doing Churchlands and Seagreen.

Buy a bike for getting to the DART

The thing about walking distance to the DART is you need to realise walking out of Greystones is entirely up hill! So distances may not be huge but it can be tough on the legs!

fliball123 · 25-03-2021 05:15PM

schmittel wrote: »

Are you saying the reason that you can only have a bubble with easy access to cheap credit is because every bubble in history has been built on cheap credit?

I was asking if you could explain your understanding of why easy cheap credit is an essential ingredient? Can you do that?

And I said can you not work that out yourself? If you dont understand this key ingredient to every bubble in history then I am not doing your homework for you. just as a quick and recent example would property prices been as high as they were in 07 if banks were not throwing money around like confetti with thing like 110% mortgages?

cnocbui · 25-03-2021 05:24PM

DataDude wrote: »

Really really like this house and I’ve no idea why it hasn’t sold yet. To me it seems a very fair price. I’ve called about it a couple of times and will hopefully go to view once restrictions lift.

I’m being really fussy here but ideally I’d like to be walking distance from the dart if possible, as drive to + dart from Greystones is a tough commute even if only 2/3 times per week.

But in a couple of moments of exasperation at missing out on ‘dream homes’, we have come very close to buying that to get ourselves onto the ladder.

Be very careful you don't hesitate too much and suddenly find it's gone sale agreed and no one is returning your calls.

hometruths · 25-03-2021 05:25PM

fliball123 wrote: »

And I said can you not work that out yourself? If you dont understand this key ingredient to every bubble in history then I am not doing your homework for you.

From your posts I don’t think you have a very good understanding of the credit that is in the market, that’s why I am asking.

Quite happy to show you my homework:

Majority of residential transactions are being completed by non household buyers - funds, councils etc.

These buyers have an effective cost of credit of near zero. Easy access to cheap credit.

On top of that you have the cash investors - there is currently an effective zero opportunity cost of capital to them, which has similar effect to easy access to credit.

Yes, Paddy and Mary FTBers don’t have easy access to cheap credit, but you are mistaken if you think that easy access to cheap credit is not fueling this market.

Do you disagree, and if so what am I missing?

Browney7 · 25-03-2021 05:27PM

fliball123 wrote: »

Here is a link to the trend pay attention to 2017 to 2020 prices went up then down in 2018 then back up in 2019 then back down 2020 and are currently on the way back up this is not how a bubble acts. In a bubble price blow up hense the name.

https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/housing-index

I'm very confused by the point you are trying to make. Are you saying that because the growth has taken a "breather" and moderated in some months in the period from 1 Jan 2017 to now that it's a "gotcha McWilliams you liar" moment.

For 21 consecutive months from Jan 17 the property price index increased. 19% cumulative.

Over the next four months it dropped each month. dropped by 1% cumulative. it then increased each month for the next 8 months for a cumulative 2% increase. It then dropped 1% over the next two months to bring us to Jan 20. We then had the Covid breakout where the index oscillated by +/- 0.2% each month until June 2020 and has since then increased each month.

I agree that property growth since Jan 2019 growth has been broadly flat and is now starting to trend upwards again

Cyrus · 25-03-2021 05:29PM

DataDude wrote: »

“Pricing not set in stone yet but we expect them to be just north of the million mark”. So I’d say you’re correct.

Seems to a fairly constant flow for sale in Eagle Valley. I’ve tracked about 10 over the last year. They stay up a long time and almost never make asking price. Some of them have fabulous gardens but the houses themselves are a bit meh.

my big issue is that a lot of the mcmansiony type houses (and eage valley falls into that category) have the most horredous uPvc windows. for me they would be the first things that would need to go, and its if a big house that gets expensive real quick :P

1m for those houses wouldnt be off the scale if its a nice development, id like to see the designs. One in particular has a very large garden it seems but there will be a price for that

hometruths · 25-03-2021 05:34PM

Cyrus wrote: »

my big issue is that a lot of the mcmansiony type houses (and eage valley falls into that category) have the most horredous uPvc windows. for me they would be the first things that would need to go, and its if a big house that gets expensive real quick :P

1m for those houses wouldnt be off the scale if its a nice development, id like to see the designs. One in particular has a very large garden it seems but there will be a price for that

Agree with this. I could grit my teeth and spend 1m to live in an estate if location and layout were right.

But spending 1m for a new build with plastic windows would really hurt!

fliball123 · 25-03-2021 05:34PM

schmittel wrote: »

From your posts I don’t think you have a very good understanding of the credit that is in the market, that’s why I am asking.

Quite happy to show you my homework:

Majority of residential transactions are being completed by non household buyers - funds, councils etc.

These buyers have an effective cost of credit of near zero. Easy access to cheap credit.

On top of that you have the cash investors - there is currently an effective zero opportunity cost of capital to them, which has similar effect to easy access to credit.

Yes, Paddy and Mary FTBers don’t have easy access to cheap credit, but you are mistaken if you think that easy access to cheap credit is not fueling this market.

Do you disagree, and if so what am I missing?

Have you any link to your first sentence?

OK so councils dont have access to credit ok so are we as a country not currently borrowing billions yet they can buy property do you think they are not using the borrowed money the government are getting to pay for this?

Funds have investors how do you know these investors are not borrowing money for this?

Do you have a break down of cash buyers.

Also we may be only entering a bubble now so all of your post is null. We will only know about a bubble in a few years

hometruths · 25-03-2021 05:38PM

fliball123 wrote: »

Have you any link to your first sentence?

OK so councils dont have access to credit ok so are we as a country not currently borrowing billions yet they can buy property do you think they are not using the borrowed money the government are getting to pay for this?

Funds have investors how do you know these investors are not borrowing money for this?

Do you have a break down of cash buyers.

Also we may be only entering a bubble now so all of your post is null. We will only know about a bubble in a few years

I think my post went over your head to be honest.

DataDude · 25-03-2021 05:43PM

cnocbui wrote: »

Be very careful you don't hesitate too much and suddenly find it's gone sale agreed and no one is returning your calls.

Houses have come and gone over the last couple of years. There’s only one that still haunts me that we didn’t buy.
Although I like that house, it doesn’t fall into the category where I’d lose sleep were it to sell. In fact, I’d say it’s highly probably it’s already sale agreed and not marked as such!

hometruths · 25-03-2021 05:45PM

DataDude wrote: »

Houses have come and gone over the last couple of years. There’s only one that still haunts me that we didn’t buy.
Although I like that house, it doesn’t fall into the category where I’d lose sleep were it to sell. In fact, I’d say it’s highly probably it’s already sale agreed and not marked as such!

Very interested to hear which one haunts you??!!

DataDude · 25-03-2021 05:50PM

schmittel wrote: »

Very interested to hear which one haunts you??!!

Sold a while back (€1.01m) so no good photos left. It has a stunning large west facing garden. It came up just as we were ready to buy. Said to myself ‘there’ll be plenty more’. A year later and I’m still waiting!

I know it’s a little bit out of Greystones. But I’d have put up with it.

https://m.independent.ie/life/home-garden/homes/roomy-rivergrove-is-a-detached-bungalow-just-a-stones-throw-away-from-cliff-walk-between-bray-and-greystones-39296865.html

hometruths · 25-03-2021 05:53PM

DataDude wrote: »

Sold a while back (€1.01m) so no good photos left. It has a stunning large west facing garden. It came up just as we were ready to buy. Said to myself ‘there’ll be plenty more’. A year later and I’m still waiting!

I know it’s a little bit out of Greystones. But I’d have put up with it.

https://m.independent.ie/life/home-garden/homes/roomy-rivergrove-is-a-detached-bungalow-just-a-stones-throw-away-from-cliff-walk-between-bray-and-greystones-39296865.html

Thanks, sorry for being nosey, but I wondered if it was a house I looked at also, and haunts me a bit But that was pre 2020.

Marius34 · 25-03-2021 06:06PM

schmittel wrote: »

Majority of residential transactions are being completed by non household buyers - funds, councils etc.

Really? Where did you find this kind of information?

DataDude · 25-03-2021 06:10PM

fliball123 wrote: »

Show me one bubble in history not predicated on easy access to cheap credit?

Surely most non-property asset bubbles aren’t built on easy access to credit? Dot Com, Dutch Tulip, Gamestop etc.

Doesn’t credit just makes things worse as when the losses start investors get burned more, quicker and are forced to sell which causes things to spiral downward faster? Don’t see why credit is an absolute necessity in order for an asset to deviate from its fundamental value.

Mic 1972 · 25-03-2021 06:23PM

Cyrus wrote: »

not sure why to be honest

Because for that amount of money you should be able to get a mansion with plenty of space around

Cyrus · 25-03-2021 06:30PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Because for that amount of money you should be able to get a mansion with plenty of space around

you can

just not everywhere.

hometruths · 25-03-2021 06:32PM

Marius34 wrote: »

Really? Where did you find this kind of information?

Comparing the numbers of housing units built to number sold, listening to PropQueries, reading the Irish Times:

As noted by Goodbody chief economist Dermot O’Leary, the non-household sector (private companies, charitable organisations, and State institutions) accounted for 41 per cent of new home purchases in July and for 39 per cent over the past 12 months.

“This included 48 per cent of new homes in Dublin over the past 12 months . . . this has been a trend that has been in place for some time and highlights the role that government vehicles (approved housing bodies, for example) and the private rented sector are having,” O’Leary said.

State bodies playing role in squeezing Dublin housing market

sanfranbest · 25-03-2021 06:42PM

This house has been on the market for a few months, it was originally priced at 1.2 million,
Now it has been relisted at 995k

It's still a horrible house,, no curb appeal,,, dark and bad layout,

Still not worth 995K,,,
You are paying for the address,, not the house,,

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/detached-house-106-baggot-lane-ballsbridge-dublin-4/3152823

Marius34 · 25-03-2021 06:44PM

schmittel wrote: »

Comparing the numbers of housing units built to number sold, listening to PropQueries, reading the Irish Times:

State bodies playing role in squeezing Dublin housing market

That's not the same thing though. New builds is just a portion of residential property transactions. In fact it's less than half.

hometruths · 25-03-2021 06:48PM

Marius34 wrote: »

That's not the same thing though. New builds is just a portion of residential property transactions. In fact it's less than half.

Fine, I should have said majority of new build residential transactions...

My point on the effects of the funds and councils etc remains valid though.

MacronvFrugals · 25-03-2021 06:53PM

The house that the council outbid my sister on was in poor nick, the antithesis of a new build!

hometruths · 25-03-2021 06:56PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

The house that the council outbid my sister on was in poor nick, the antithesis of a new build!

For sure non household buyers active in both new build and second market, just not in the majority as Marius pointed out.

DataDude · 25-03-2021 06:58PM

sanfranbest wrote: »

This house has been on the market for a few months, it was originally priced at 1.2 million,
Now it has been relisted at 995k

It's still a horrible house,, no curb appeal,,, dark and bad layout,

Still not worth 995K,,,
You are paying for the address,, not the house,,

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/detached-house-106-baggot-lane-ballsbridge-dublin-4/3152823

Yikes. Can’t believe that was up at €1.2m at one stage!

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1