2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

Cyrus · 25-03-2021 03:40PM

DataDude wrote: »

What are peoples thoughts on Redwood in Enniskerry? https://www.daft.ie/new-home-for-sale/redwood-development-enniskerry-co-wicklow/1507074

They seem to be struggling to sell and all are going €150k+ below asking. Also on the surface seems like someone who went in early got stung with an identical one next door going for €100k less a couple of months later. Although I think they’re among the nicest new builds I’ve seen, headline starting price of €1.3m seems very steep?

We’ve registered an interest in a similar scale/price development launching next year and I was semi tempted to try buy off plans. But having watched the premium houses in the Greystones Marina and now Redwood all stick and ultimately go well below the headline price, I’m reluctant to do so...But also don’t want to miss out if we do decide we like them!

Always thought a potential benefit of going new development was no negotiation - price is the price and you’re not getting ripped off or getting a steal. Apparently not the case!

i have looked at that a few times, looks a fine house with a high spec, plenty of space aswell.

Id personally rather be in greystones although enniskerry is nice, but doesnt have nearly as much going on.

As for new builds, always negotiate, especially at that end of the market

Cyrus · 25-03-2021 03:40PM

JimmyVik wrote: »

Over €1m for a house in an estate.
Let that sink in

plenty of estates with houses over 1m, some with houses over 2m.

fliball123 · 25-03-2021 03:41PM

schmittel wrote: »

Just because prices have continued to rise does not make his opinion in 2017 wrong. It is a bit disingenuous to say he has been caught lying!

Essentially he is saying don't buy now - we're in a sellers market and supply is at record lows.

It seems obviously correct that we're in a sellers market and supply is at record lows. What are the facts he is ignoring?

what makes his opinion wrong is prices since 2017 have gone up a bit gone back down a bit then gone back up a bit then down a bit..This is not a trajectory a bubble takes. We may now in 2021 be at the beginning of a bubble but from 2017 to the end of 2020 we were not. He was caught lying he lied about the dotcom bubble not being based on easy to access to cheap credit when it was, he was trying to prove that a bubble can exist without this property when history shows it cant.

Well like I say in 2017 he was saying bubble we are in a bubble again trying to persuade people not to buy..How is that working out for anyone who listened to him in 2021?

DataDude · 25-03-2021 03:41PM

JimmyVik wrote: »

Over €1m for a house in an estate.
Let that sink in

I can find higher than €1m if you want!

I would somewhat agree if it was like Eagle Valley with 100+ houses. But a small enclave of 9 detached houses wouldn’t be enough to put me off.

JimmyVik · 25-03-2021 03:41PM

Cyrus wrote: »

plenty of estates with houses over 1m, some with houses over 2m.

I know. Doesnt make it easy to swallow.
I'll say it again.
€1,000,000 + for a house in an estate - give me the shivers.
Any chance I can have one of the social houses in there

Cyrus · 25-03-2021 03:42PM

JimmyVik wrote: »

I know. Doesnt make it easy to swallow.
I'll say it again.
€1,000,000 + for a house in an estate - give me the shivers.

not sure why to be honest

fliball123 · 25-03-2021 03:43PM

Villa05 wrote: »

Asuuming everybody knows what's going on with the property market is naieve.

Supply is at record lows
Most new builds are not made available for sale to the general public
Your competing against large entities that either use your money or have a significant competitive advantage in that they pay no tax

I think alot of people are not aware of all these issues. When a market is that stacked against the person's that wish to buy a home. Its best to pause and wait

The content of his podcasts needs to balanced with the target audience and purpose of his podcast which is to make economics relevant and understandable to the everyday person
He achieves that with exceptional guest speakers. This I'm sure you can see as like me you enjoy his podcast. I'm sure there are not too many people out there that looked forward to their mainstream economics class.

Can you see any of the above properties changing anytime soon and if so how?

DataDude · 25-03-2021 03:45PM

Cyrus wrote: »

i have looked at that a few times, looks a fine house with a high spec, plenty of space aswell.

Id personally rather be in greystones although enniskerry is nice, but doesnt have nearly as much going on.

As for new builds, always negotiate, especially at that end of the market

Yeah I’m also not a massive Enniskerry fan (like town, logistically difficult). The one we’re looking at will have 9 houses also. But there’s 1 (maybe 2) that are clearly considerably more desirable than the other 7. So feels potentially like a game of chicken to try haggle for the best one.

But yes, my observations to date would align with your suggestion. New builds in the €1m+ range are sticky. The ones in Brighton Wood also don’t appear to be flying off the shelf by any means!

hometruths · 25-03-2021 03:51PM

fliball123 wrote: »

what makes his opinion wrong is prices since 2017 have gone up a bit gone back down a bit then gone back up a bit then down a bit..This is not a trajectory a bubble takes. We may now in 2021 be at the beginning of a bubble but from 2017 to the end of 2020 we were not. He was caught lying he lied about the dotcom bubble not being based on easy to access to cheap credit when it was, he was trying to prove that a bubble can exist without this property when history shows it cant.

Well like I say in 2017 he was saying bubble we are in a bubble again trying to persuade people not to buy..How is that working out for anyone who listened to him in 2021?

What is it about easy access to cheap credit that makes it the essential ingredient of a bubble? Can you explain why this is so?

Browney7 · 25-03-2021 03:55PM

fliball123 wrote: »

what makes his opinion wrong is prices since 2017 have gone up a bit gone back down a bit then gone back up a bit then down a bit..This is not a trajectory a bubble takes. We may now in 2021 be at the beginning of a bubble but from 2017 to the end of 2020 we were not. He was caught lying he lied about the dotcom bubble not being based on easy to access to cheap credit when it was, he was trying to prove that a bubble can exist without this property when history shows it cant.

Well like I say in 2017 he was saying bubble we are in a bubble again trying to persuade people not to buy..How is that working out for anyone who listened to him in 2021?

Jan 16 the index stood at 104. Jan 17 the national RPI index was at 113. At Jan 18 it increased to 126.5. Jan 19 it increased 133.1. In Jan 13 it stood at 75.2. Those numbers show strong price growth and yet supply is still incredibly week.

The thing with bubbles is you can only prove they are bubbles after they pop

hometruths · 25-03-2021 03:56PM

DataDude wrote: »

Yeah I’m also not a massive Enniskerry fan (like town, logistically difficult). The one we’re looking at will have 9 houses also. But there’s 1 (maybe 2) that are clearly considerably more desirable than the other 7. So feels potentially like a game of chicken to try haggle for the best one.

But yes, my observations to date would align with your suggestion. New builds in the €1m+ range are sticky. The ones in Brighton Wood also don’t appear to be flying off the shelf by any means!

I think Enniskerry is a very pretty little village but it just feels like it is the wrong side of the N11 in my opinion. I think it used to achieve a premium compared to Delgany/Greystones but I suspect those days are over.

DataDude · 25-03-2021 03:59PM

schmittel wrote: »

I think Enniskerry is a very pretty little village but it just feels like it is the wrong side of the N11 in my opinion. I think it used to achieve a premium compared to Delgany/Greystones but I suspect those days are over.

Interesting. I was using Redwood as my barometer for what this other development is worth if we’re to be first in the door. I would have assumed that Enniskerry would have been a fair bit cheaper than Delgany/Greystones when doing the comparison. Very promising if that’s not necessarily the case!

Edit - I know Enniskerry has a higher average sale price but just assumed this was due to the different mix of houses vs Greystones.

Villa05 · 25-03-2021 04:00PM

fliball123 wrote:

what makes his opinion wrong is prices since 2017 have gone up a bit gone back down a bit then gone back up a bit then down a bit..This is not a trajectory a bubble takes. We may now in 2021 be at the beginning of a bubble but from 2017 to the end of 2020 we were not. He was caught lying he lied about the dotcom bubble not being based on easy to access to cheap credit when it was, he was trying to prove that a bubble can exist without this property when history shows it cant.

Would it be more correct to say that demand has moved further away from from the main cities to commuter regions as affordability thresholds have been reached. Does that trend sound familiar from the last bubble or was that not a bubble either.

Prices in the cities have remaind stable or even increased despite Brexit uncertainty and a global pandemic. Does that imply bubble characteristics or is it normal for houses to increase in these scenarios of heightened risk

hometruths · 25-03-2021 04:02PM

DataDude wrote: »

Interesting. I was using Redwood as my barometer for what this other development is worth if we’re to be first in the door. I would have assumed that Enniskerry would have been a fair bit cheaper than Delgany/Greystones when doing the comparison. Very promising if that’s not necessarily the case!

Edit - I know Enniskerry has a higher average sale price but just assumed this was due to the different mix of houses vs Greystones.

I'd agree that is due to different mix of houses.

What I meant is 10/15 years ago Enniskerry would have been more expensive like for like, but I suspect that situation has been reversed.

Villa05 · 25-03-2021 04:08PM

fliball123 wrote:

Can you see any of the above properties changing anytime soon and if so how?

Villa05 wrote:

Supply is at record lows Most new builds are not made available for sale to the general public Your competing against large entities that either use your money or have a significant competitive advantage in that they pay no tax

Assuming these are the properties you refer to

If I were in the market for a home and these were the preconditions in the market The only purchase I would be making would be the longest of barge poles as all of the above are completely unsustainable and the longer they persist the greater the resulting crash

cubatahavana · 25-03-2021 04:10PM

JimmyVik wrote: »

I know. Doesnt make it easy to swallow.
I'll say it again.
€1,000,000 + for a house in an estate - give me the shivers.
Any chance I can have one of the social houses in there

Less than 11 units doesn't qualify for social

JimmyVik · 25-03-2021 04:14PM

cubatahavana wrote: »

Less than 11 units doesn't qualify for social

Pity. Someone has missed out

hometruths · 25-03-2021 04:16PM

DataDude wrote: »

Interesting. I was using Redwood as my barometer for what this other development is worth if we’re to be first in the door. I would have assumed that Enniskerry would have been a fair bit cheaper than Delgany/Greystones when doing the comparison. Very promising if that’s not necessarily the case!

Is there a new high end development in Delgany/Greystones in the pipeline?

DataDude · 25-03-2021 04:18PM

schmittel wrote: »

Is there a new high end development in Delgany/Greystones in the pipeline?

Yup, Church Lane. A long ways to go - still haven’t broken ground.

hometruths · 25-03-2021 04:26PM

DataDude wrote: »

Yup, Church Lane. A long ways to go - still haven’t broken ground.

Ah yes, the one where they will butcher the garden of that beautiful old house.

I kind of know what Jimmyvik means about 1m to live in an estate, but in that location, if there were only a handful, detached, decent size with garden, and well landscaped I guess I could handle it.

The Burnaby was developed as one of the first housing estates in Ireland. They did things properly back then!

Cyrus · 25-03-2021 04:31PM

schmittel wrote: »

the wrong side of the N11 in my opinion.

thats it in a nutshell.

awec · 25-03-2021 04:32PM

I personally wouldn't be overly fussed on living on the west side of the N11.

Cyrus · 25-03-2021 04:37PM

DataDude wrote: »

Interesting. I was using Redwood as my barometer for what this other development is worth if we’re to be first in the door. I would have assumed that Enniskerry would have been a fair bit cheaper than Delgany/Greystones when doing the comparison. Very promising if that’s not necessarily the case!

Edit - I know Enniskerry has a higher average sale price but just assumed this was due to the different mix of houses vs Greystones.

Redwood house is bigger than the ones proposed for church lane so im guessing the greystones ones will be more expensive per Sq/m but not overall...

Eaglewood was very desirable one time in enniskerry but i think the sheen has gone off it now a bit.

MacronvFrugals · 25-03-2021 04:39PM

An interesting stat, 61% of homebuyers in the UK who are eligible do not use their Shared Equity Scheme

On the 1st April they are changing it to allow buyers have the state purchase as little as 10%

To think we're copying something that obviously hasn't worked very well is hilarious

JimmyVik · 25-03-2021 04:39PM

awec wrote: »

I personally wouldn't be overly fussed on living on the west side of the N11.

My granny was from Enniskerry and my in-laws are in Greystones. She lived there until she died a few years ago. I know both very well and both are really nice places, but personally Id actually prefer to live in Enniskerry.

awec · 25-03-2021 04:41PM

What about something like https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/3-glendale-delgany-wicklow/4478960 DataDude?

A good bit cheaper but still very nice (IMO), not as swish as the Redwood ones but in a better location.

awec · 25-03-2021 04:43PM

JimmyVik wrote: »

My granny was from Enniskerry and my in-laws are in Greystones. She lived there until she died a few years ago. I know both very well and both are really nice places, but personally Id actually prefer to live in Enniskerry.

Don't get me wrong, Enniskerry is a lovely place, but west of the N11 is a lot more remote than east of it.

Villa05 · 25-03-2021 04:46PM

MacronvFrugals wrote:

An interesting stat, 61% of homebuyers in the UK who are eligible do not use their Shared Equity Scheme

Just out of interest have they the same issue with rents being considerably higher than mortgage repayments

fliball123 · 25-03-2021 04:54PM

schmittel wrote: »

What is it about easy access to cheap credit that makes it the essential ingredient of a bubble? Can you explain why this is so?

Really?? Can you not think this through yourself..

DataDude · 25-03-2021 04:55PM

Cyrus wrote: »

Redwood house is bigger than the ones proposed for church lane so im guessing the greystones ones will be more expensive per Sq/m but not overall...

Eaglewood was very desirable one time in enniskerry but i think the sheen has gone off it now a bit.

“Pricing not set in stone yet but we expect them to be just north of the million mark”. So I’d say you’re correct.

Seems to a fairly constant flow for sale in Eagle Valley. I’ve tracked about 10 over the last year. They stay up a long time and almost never make asking price. Some of them have fabulous gardens but the houses themselves are a bit meh.

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1