2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

riclad

Its the law of supply and demand.low no of houses being built ,alot of people want to buy a 2 or 3 bed house.
theres very few empty sites left anywhere close to the city centre.
builders are mostly building apartments or offices
there will never be any more houses built in cabra or phibsboro.
Are the rates of ownership falling cos there is simply a tiny amount of houses for sale ,a lack of supply .
there are simply not enough houses being built for the no of gen z potential buyers .
i think most people reach a certain age 25-30 when if they are working
they will try to buy a house or an apartment.
or else they will simply give up
I Think the same thing is happening in america ,
house prices are rising way faster than the salary of the average person
under the age of 30.
he,s an economist whether he owns 2 or 3 propertys is not relevant to
the argument he makes.

Beigepaint

I like how McW drives discussion at least. I’m sure he or at least his researchers read this thread to see the opinions of the entrenched.

I’d really love if he ran with the citizens assembly on housing idea.

The housing market in this country is always on the verge of the next ill-advised quick fix, rather than one painful permanent solution. (A directly elected mayor would help with this too, an idea he also pushes).

It reminds me of Vimes’ Boots:

“The reason that the rich were so rich, Vimes reasoned, was because they managed to spend less money.

{...}

But the thing was that good boots lasted for years and years. A man who could afford fifty dollars had a pair of boots that'd still be keeping his feet dry in ten years' time, while the poor man who could only afford cheap boots would have spent a hundred dollars on boots in the same time and would still have wet feet.”

mcsean2163

Cyrus wrote: »

He isn’t and nor was he

Oh must of got that mixed up. His grandmother's from Dalkey?

He talks of his Croatian home here.

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/croatia-wins-at-football-loses-in-economics-the-opposite-of-ireland/

He's been talking about stuff for ages. Lately he's been recommending we borrow loads. He also recommended guaranteeing the banks etc. In the GFC.

Cyrus

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Oh must of got that mixed up. His grandmother's from Dalkey?

He talks of his Croatian home here.

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/croatia-wins-at-football-loses-in-economics-the-opposite-of-ireland/

He's been talking about stuff for ages. Lately he's been recommending we borrow loads. He also recommended guaranteeing the banks etc. In the GFC.

To be fair he wasn’t far away moved from killiney to dun laoghaire .

Villa05

mcsean2163 wrote:

He also recommended guaranteeing the banks etc. In the GFC.

I belive the recommendation was a temporary guarantee to buy time to see how bad they were

Villa05

<SNIP>

yagan

mcsean2163 wrote: »

He's been talking about stuff for ages. Lately he's been recommending we borrow loads. He also recommended guaranteeing the banks etc. In the GFC.

He didn't recommend the blanket guarantee that Lenehen Jr came up with.

What he proffered was a bank shut down and dividing of bad loans from good loans, letting the banks like Anglo sink.

What we got was Lenehen giving the banks a blank cheque to continue as they were (SF voted for it too) but eventually the sate itself was bankrupted two years after.

Many people honestly believed that we could reinflate the bubble with the bank guarantee.

Where I would criticise McWilliams was his later solo run about ditching euro which meant leaving the EU. He never likes being reminded of that.

Shelga

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/terraced-house-65-edenmore-crescent-raheny-dublin-5/3156146

Serious question- why are EAs still listing properties like the above for €275k when they know it’s going to sell for €300k+? I predict that one will sell for about €320k.

Is it to generate interest? If so, is it not just creating more work for them, because they’ll have loads of initial bidders who’ll quickly drop out. I don’t even bother enquiring about places like that anymore, even though I could easily afford the asking price.

Villa05

Shelga wrote:

Serious question- why are EAs still listing properties like the above for €275k when they know it’s going to sell for €300k+? I predict that one will sell for about €320k.

Would I be correct in assuming that is a former council house
Meanwhile the state is paying 3+ times for smaller units.
I suspect they may well be interested in buying this one also.

LasersGoPewPew

Beigepaint wrote: »

I like how McW drives discussion at least. I’m sure he or at least his researchers read this thread to see the opinions of the entrenched.

I’d really love if he ran with the citizens assembly on housing idea.

To be fair I like reading David's opinion pieces as an economist, and I don't begrudge his housing or financial status. Some people loathe him, some like him, but I respect non-extremist people with the guts to give a broad-reaching opinion on an incredibly complex topic. He means well by his advice as he's trying to stir discussion. It's just deeply frustrating for those of us who are so emotionally invested in finding our own little place we can call home.

What if the government prevented REITs from purchasing huge blocks of properties/apartments, or only a percentage of new and existing builds say 30-40% can be purchase by funds with the remainder going to first-time buyers, along with social and affordable housing. This could be mandated via legislation. It would feed the rental market while simultaneously housing those who want to buy. Currently, funds are buying entire developments while private buyers don't even get a chance.

mcsean2163

yagan wrote: »

He didn't recommend the blanket guarantee that Lenehen Jr came up with.

What he proffered was a bank shut down and dividing of bad loans from good loans, letting the banks like Anglo sink.

What we got was Lenehen giving the banks a blank cheque to continue as they were (SF voted for it too) but eventually the sate itself was bankrupted two years after.

Many people honestly believed that we could reinflate the bubble with the bank guarantee.

Where I would criticise McWilliams was his later solo run about ditching euro which meant leaving the EU. He never likes being reminded of that.

He came out later to say his idea was a two year guarantee, i.e. time limited.


Green Party leader and Environment Minister John Gormley roused from his slumber to participate in a cabinet meeting by phone. “Are we going with the David McWilliams option?”, he is reported to have asked. They were.

hTtps://www.thejournal.ie/readme/night-of-the-bank-guarantee-4258897-Sep2018/

I saw a deep hole into which I advised people to climb to shelter in order from the rain. When the rain had stopped, they couldn't get out, it wasn't my fault that the hole was too deep to get out.

yagan

mcsean2163 wrote: »

He came out later to say his idea was a two year guarantee, i.e. time limited.

Got a link?

I remember him distinctly railing against the blanket guarantee as it wasn't the shut down model he proffered on the early 90s Swedish banking crisis.

Fianna Fail went from chest thumping about the cheapest bailout in history to blaming everyone including McWilliams when it blow up on them.

Fianna Fail are so adrift in this internet age where they can easily have their noses rubbed in their previous transgressions. A few months ago Michael Martin had to correct his Dail assertion that there was no bailout.

The truth is there's loads of vested interests happy for our property market to be so broken and they're very happy to keep spinning nonsense.

Villa05

yagan wrote:

I remember him distinctly railing against the blanket guarantee as it wasn't the shut down model he proffered on the early 90s Swedish banking crisis.

It would seem very illogical for a person who was calling a bubble for years prior to 2008 to advise a blanket unconditional guarantee of the financial institutions that were driving that bubble

theflash

Shelga wrote: »

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/terraced-house-65-edenmore-crescent-raheny-dublin-5/3156146

Serious question- why are EAs still listing properties like the above for €275k when they know it’s going to sell for €300k+? I predict that one will sell for about €320k.

Is it to generate interest? If so, is it not just creating more work for them, because they’ll have loads of initial bidders who’ll quickly drop out. I don’t even bother enquiring about places like that anymore, even though I could easily afford the asking price.

In my opinion too its to generate interest. 320 won't be far of the mark.

Stark

Friend of mine sold a house a couple of years ago and was told to put an asking price that was lower than valuation on it in order to generate interest/bids.

K.Hawksworth

Stark wrote: »

Friend of mine sold a house a couple of years ago and was told to put an asking price that was lower than valuation on it in order to generate interest/bids.

That's it exactly, once someone places a bid on a property they become a little emotionally involved and start imagining their life there which may result in them bidding over what they would be comfortable paying (if up against other bidders). Setting realistic or high asking prices scares those potential buyers off.

virginmediapls

The arse is falling out of the property market in Ireland within the next 18 months.

That is all.

Cyrus

virginmediapls wrote: »

The arse is falling out of the property market in Ireland within the next 18 months.

That is all.

that has been flagged in these threads for sometime now, its always within the next 18 months mind.

Price drops in the region of 75% are predicted.

gourcuff

virginmediapls wrote: »

The arse is falling out of the property market in Ireland within the next 18 months.

That is all.

just cant see it, housing is still in high demand and supply is drying up, unless unemployment goes to 20% and banks shut up shop... and i am certainly not a property market PR guy

givyjoe

virginmediapls wrote: »

The arse is falling out of the property market in Ireland within the next 18 months.

That is all.

If Covid didn't manage it 12 months ago when it hit, what will? Unless the banks flood the market with repossessed properties (which they wont), or massive amounts of amounts of new builds come online (which they can't) it won't happen. There's still the same problem, demand is massively outstripping supply.

yagan

gourcuff wrote: »

just cant see it, housing is still in high demand and supply is drying up, unless unemployment goes to 20% and banks shut up shop... and i am certainly not a property market PR guy

Drying up?

We're in a pandemic with a 5km travel restriction nationwide and almost half a million workers on pandemic payments. There is little that's quantifiable at present.

Cyrus

yagan wrote: »

Drying up?

We're in a pandemic with a 5km travel restriction nationwide and almost half a million workers on pandemic payments. There is little that's quantifiable at present.

well they arent exactly throwing up loads of houses given construction is closed.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

If you agree that the govt and funds have easy access to cheap credit, presumably you'd agree this credit has been in the market long before 2021?

The funds have been very active since about 2013.

Well what I would say is the govenment had stopped borrowing in 2018 and 2019 and turned a surplus for 2019 (the rainy day fund) so the deficit had been bridged. Now they are borrowing for covid and this has added another 20 billion on top so I think its this money that will flow into what the govenment spend on and that will include the government buying houses competing with your bog standard Ann and Barry along side renting property from REITS and Vultures and any other private landlord to give to those who cant afford to pay rent I think that may be inflating a bubble now. The money may have been there pre 2021 but property prices up until about September of last year would bear out that there was no bubble as prices jumped up and down and not just up. Its hard to know when your in a bubble its always hindsight when it bursts.

fliball123

Shelga wrote: »

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/terraced-house-65-edenmore-crescent-raheny-dublin-5/3156146

Serious question- why are EAs still listing properties like the above for €275k when they know it’s going to sell for €300k+? I predict that one will sell for about €320k.

Is it to generate interest? If so, is it not just creating more work for them, because they’ll have loads of initial bidders who’ll quickly drop out. I don’t even bother enquiring about places like that anymore, even though I could easily afford the asking price.

Some EAs go in with a strategy of listing below to drum up interest and a bidding war it also makes them look a lot better if they have achieved 40k over asking instead of 20k

Cyrus

fliball123 wrote: »

Some EAs go in with a strategy of listing below to drum up interest and a bidding war it also makes them look a lot better if they have achieved 40k over asking instead of 20k

i question this to be honest, we did it a few years back selling an apartment and while we eventually got the price we wanted it took an absolute age to sell.

it was more appealing to downsizers given the size and location so thats what we had bidding but they were all super cagey and bidding in 1k increments.

we would have been better just listing at what we wanted rather than telling someone who bid the asking, no we wont sell for that.

fliball123

Cyrus wrote: »

i question this to be honest, we did it a few years back selling an apartment and while we eventually got the price we wanted it took an absolute age to sell.

it was more appealing to downsizers given the size and location so thats what we had bidding but they were all super cagey and bidding in 1k increments.

we would have been better just listing at what we wanted rather than telling someone who bid the asking, no we wont sell for that.

Well its a completely different market out there today I have heard tales from one or two friends of property being up for less than 2 weeks getting 40/50k over the asking and 20/25k over the sellers wanting price and both were cash buyers. I am also looking at the "currently buying or selling" thread on here and it seems to be the most one sided market seen in at least a decade buyers have poor choice and no new housing coming on stream, FTBs are rampantly looking at second hand property meaning they will be losing some of the state aid that they would be entitled to if they bought a brand new house.

Villa05

fliball123 wrote:

FTBs are rampantly looking at second hand property meaning they will be losing some of the state aid that they would be entitled to if they bought a brand new house.

Forced irrational exuberance

Another box ticked on the presence of factors that help to blow up an asset price bubble

cnocbui

fliball123 wrote: »

Well its a completely different market out there today I have heard tales from one or two friends of property being up for less than 2 weeks getting 40/50k over the asking and 20/25k over the sellers wanting price and both were cash buyers. I am also looking at the "currently buying or selling" thread on here and it seems to be the most one sided market seen in at least a decade buyers have poor choice and no new housing coming on stream, FTBs are rampantly looking at second hand property meaning they will be losing some of the state aid that they would be entitled to if they bought a brand new house.

In Oz, a property in inner Sydney went for $1.4 M over reserve a few days ago.

LasersGoPewPew

virginmediapls wrote: »

The arse is falling out of the property market in Ireland within the next 18 months.

That is all.

The ECB won't allow interest rates to rise given the state of European economies. Employment in 'high' earning sectors like financial services, IT, legal, health, engineering won't be affected. People working in these sectors will continue to support the market. Supply is low, demand is high so a collapse won't happen. It's not like the end of the celtic tiger where there as an oversupply and a credit crunch. People are not getting 100% mortgages like they were in the naughtys.

The_Conductor

LasersGoPewPew wrote: »

The ECB won't allow interest rates to rise given the state of European economies. Employment in 'high' earning sectors like financial services, IT, legal, health, engineering won't be affected. People working in these sectors will continue to support the market. Supply is low, demand is high so a collapse won't happen. It's not like the end of the celtic tiger where there as an oversupply and a credit crunch. People are not getting 100% mortgages like they were in the naughtys.

The ECB doesn't give a rats arse about employment- they have one metric they look at- and that is the consumer inflation index. If/when it exceeds 2%- they will raise rates.

Also- whether we like it or not- the ECB dances to Germany's tune- what Germany wants, they pretty much get. At the moment German pensioners are hurting badly from the interest rate regime. This has been highlighted several times (even in Bild last weekend). It beggars belief that that the wishes of German pensioners are not going to feature prominently in what the ECB does or doesn't do- esp. given the federal elections coming up in Germany later this year- and how terrified the CDU are after their recent election failures.

Ireland is a minnow- while we have a voice, we only have a little voice, and our wishes at the table are right at the bottom of the list. Anyone who imagines otherwise is delusional. We are going to be dancing to the tune of the pensioners of Germany- whether we like it, or not.