Covid 19 Part XXXIII-231,484 ROI(4,610 deaths)116,197 NI (2,107 deaths)(23/03)Read OP

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

The trend in the GP referral data would not make you happy.

This is Monday's data, so you always see an increase after the weekend, but the last week has been bad whatever way you look at it.

https://tomorrowscare.ie/covid/2021-03-23_COVID_GP_Survey_Results.pdf

Terrible looking numbers I agree. Obviously it could mean bad news is around the corner. That's the most likely correct interpretation. However, just to put a possible alternative spin on it...

Firstly the number of people meeting test criteria has really jumped, well over two for each respondent yesterday. The number of them clinically likely to have covid has also jumped I note, but not at the same rate at all. GPs are saying that only 38% or so of those they are referring are clinically likely to have covid.

This might in turn be explained by some (very anecdotal) evidence I can add. Specifically a relative works in a pre school. At present they have large numbers of kids out sick - a mixture of cold symptoms, temperatures, nausea, etc. But 3 kids who had been out for a few days returned today with having all gotten negative covid tests in the meantime. Nor is there are indication any of the other kids still out has tested positive for covid.

So this small sample at least does suggest that, unlike a month ago, there are possibly other sicknesses spreading at the moment other than covid. That would explain a big jump in calls to GPs if the symptoms overlap with covid. It would also explain why the GPs think that only 38% of people they are referring actually have covid - that 38% figure was running at 50% last Friday (and given case positivity is only 4%, even that 38% seems an overstatement - but maybe "clinically likely" to have covid does not mean the GP necessarily thinks they have covid).

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DrPaulTheGP/status/1374130659984338944

The Irish Government are doing an impeccable job, there cannot be an ounce of fault placed on their shoulders for this, it's all the EU's fault.




/s

11521323 wrote: »

The Irish Government are doing an impeccable job, there cannot be an ounce of fault placed on their shoulders for this, it's all the EU's fault.




/s

sarcasm i hope

paddyisreal wrote: »

Off course people are compliant with restrictions, everything is closed so there's no where to go. I wonder how compliance would be if shops etc were open

just means they are lying on the survey.

paddyisreal wrote: »

Off course people are compliant with restrictions, everything is closed so there's no where to go. I wonder how compliance would be if shops etc were open

You are missing the point...It is not possible that 97% of people can be more compliant than the average person.In reality approx 50% will be more compliant than the average person and approx 50% less.

It just gives an insight into peoples thinking vis a vis how compliant they are themselves versus how less than compliant other people are.

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Terrible looking numbers I agree. Obviously it could mean bad news is around the corner. That's the most likely correct interpretation. However, just to put a possible alternative spin on it...

Firstly the number of people meeting test criteria has really jumped, well over two for each respondent yesterday. The number of them clinically likely to have covid has also jumped I note, but not at the same rate at all. GPs are saying that only 38% or so of those they are referring are clinically likely to have covid.

This might in turn be explained by some (very anecdotal) evidence I can add. Specifically a relative works in a pre school. At present they have large numbers of kids out sick - a mixture of cold symptoms, temperatures, nausea, etc. But 3 kids who had been out for a few days returned today with having all gotten negative covid tests in the meantime. Nor is there are indication any of the other kids still out has tested positive for covid.

So this small sample at least does suggest that, unlike a month ago, there are possibly other sicknesses spreading at the moment other than covid. That would explain a big jump in calls to GPs if the symptoms overlap with covid. It would also explain why the GPs think that only 38% of people they are referring actually have covid - that 38% figure was running at 50% last Friday (and given case positivity is only 4%, even that 38% seems an overstatement - but maybe "clinically likely" to have covid does not mean the GP necessarily thinks they have covid).

Actually a bit of support for my back of beer mat thesis on rte.ie...

"...

Earlier a Cork-based GP has said parents have been contacting her practice with concerns about their children and Covid-19.

Dr Nuala O'Connor said that, as of yet, her practice has not had any positive cases, but there has been an increase in other infections as a result of children mixing together.

Speaking on RTÉ's Today with Claire Byrne, she said as schools are a controlled environment, there is around a 3% chance of the virus spreading within schools, but it is the socialising before and after schools that is causing the increase of cases among children.

Dr O'Connor said public health teams have not found any increase in transmission in schools, compared to pre-Christmas levels, and the evidence internationally is that the virus tends to spread more rapidly from adult to adult than among children...."

https://twitter.com/SeanDefoe/status/1374397431685648397

There has been a significant rise in the volume of Covid-19 tests being carried out in Donegal in recent weeks.

In the week ending Sunday, March 21, there were 1,288 Covid-19 tests carried out – a jump of almost 37 per cent in a week, Donegal Daily can confirm.

The previous week, there were 942 tests carried out in Donegal.

Last week’s figure included 1,169 at the testing facility on the St Conal’s campus in Letterkenny and a further 119 which were conducted at the test centre in Donegal Town.

The number of tests conducted last week is a rise of 45 per cent from the week ending February 28 when there were a total of 884 tests in the county.

Case numbers in Donegal have soared again of late.

The 67 new cases reported on Sunday was the county’s highest increase since the third wave on January 22.

eagle eye wrote: »

If you relax restrictions then some are going to push the boundaries.
So if you say no house calls you'll have these people meeting one other family. You say one household can visit another they'll have three or four families over.
That's just the way some people act and in a pandemic if one of those families get covid you'll have a large cluster very quickly with relaxed restrictions.

Those people are doing that now anyway.

Thats still doesnt mean we will have 2000 if we go to level 3. We are not in the same psition as december. We are also entering the summer months.

Less indoor gatherings in general.

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Everything outdoors should be encouraged now . Outdoor eating , outdoor pubs , people allowed meet outdoors , picnic areas and parks should encourage with benches and seating areas . People should be encouraged to bring picnics and stay outdoors as much as they can

Do everything outdoors you say? Things going to get interesting down the local park.

blowitupref wrote: »

Monday 14th to Sunday 20th

3864 reported cases
3807 positive swabs

When did we last get a week with more cases that positive swabs?

How is that even possible?

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Everything outdoors should be encouraged now . Outdoor eating , outdoor pubs , people allowed meet outdoors , picnic areas and parks should encourage with benches and seating areas . People should be encouraged to bring picnics and stay outdoors as much as they can

This is brilliant, you've also solved the housing crisis - just don't go indoors anymore.....