COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

forumdedum · 22-03-2021 12:38PM

Has anyone felt they were a definite close contact but not included in the HSE close contact phone call text etc?

JTMan · 22-03-2021 12:41PM

Latest on Sputnik V ...

The EU’s internal market commissioner and Head of the EU’s vaccine distribution Thierry Breton has said "we have absolutely no need of Sputnik V”. This has sparked Russian fury.

This implies that there will likely not be an EU wide purchase of Sputnik V.

If countries wish to purchase this post EMA approval (if achieved) then it seems like it will be bi-lateral agreements. Merkel says Germany are interested. We will see if Ireland will engage with Russia on this.

Russia really want their vaccine used in the EU for propaganda reasons but every little helps especially if Russia can get supply from outside the EU.

astrofool · 22-03-2021 12:43PM

Jimbee wrote: »

Interesting but I wonder if the vaccine was administered to the younger group first would it have been even faster. Younger group being more likely to spread the virus and cause mutations. Especially when there is a shortage of vaccines.
Excuse my emotionless analysis but makes sense to put water water on the base of the fire rather than the flames.

Unfortunately we didn't have any data on whether the vaccines halt transmission due to the testing being based on safety and efficacy. Now, it would be really weird for transmission to stay the same (and let's face it, the only cohort vaccinated so far that would be spreading is the HCW's).

It would also be very hard politically to vaccinate the young first when it's the old that are dying, even if a graph proved that more people would be saved.

marno21 · 22-03-2021 12:44PM

The Israel data posted above also means we can conclude beyond reasonable doubt that the vaccines do indeed stop transmission. Lockdown over with some time now and the R0 is falling beyond 0.6. Whatever about swabbing vaccinated people and doing statistical analysis like what we’ve seen to date, the R0 being so low with the country reopened is tangible proof of this

While we can’t conclude it’ll have the exact same effect here due to the AZ vaccine being used also, it shows that the mRNA vaccines have been nothing less than a miracle of medicine. >95% effectiveness and stopping transmission for a vaccine that took less than a year to develop on a platform that was unproven.

crossman47 · 22-03-2021 12:46PM

is_that_so wrote: »

GP vaccinations seem to depend on numbers of age groups in individual practices and whether they've signed up to a larger group of GPs.

I suspect some GPs are not being pro active about this. They should link up with others if they have small numbers.

Dressoutlet · 22-03-2021 12:49PM

astrofool wrote: »

Unfortunately we didn't have any data on whether the vaccines halt transmission due to the testing being based on safety and efficacy. Now, it would be really weird for transmission to stay the same (and let's face it, the only cohort vaccinated so far that would be spreading is the HCW's).

It would also be very hard politically to vaccinate the young first when it's the old that are dying, even if a graph proved that more people would be saved.

I do think it was ridiculous to vaccinate people who had days left to live, I know this practice stopped but what a waste of vaccines. And I apologise of this sounds crass and cold I do not intend it

is_that_so · 22-03-2021 12:58PM

crossman47 wrote: »

I suspect some GPs are not being pro active about this. They should link up with others if they have small numbers.

Well, we need data at either end of the Bell curve to be able to describe an average GP!

wes · 22-03-2021 12:59PM

JTMan wrote: »

Russia really want their vaccine used in the EU for propaganda reasons but every little helps especially if Russia can get supply from outside the EU.

Have the Russians enough to vaccinate there own people? How much are they producing? I have no issues with it being used once it has EMA approval, but can they deliver in time for it to make a difference? If we can't get sputnik until like July or August, then is there much point buying any?

trellheim · 22-03-2021 12:59PM

And we are off ! A Sun article lol

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/14416930/uk-no-choice-but-to-block-vaccine-ingredients-eu-war/

BRITAIN would have “no choice” but to block vaccine ingredient exports to the continent if the EU triggers a full blown jab ban, The Sun can reveal.

It came as ministers vowed the UK is still on course to hit vaccine targets and Downing Street is currently confident there will be no backsliding on the road map to freedom - despite the growing war of words with Brussels.

Its harry cole article so a direct link to No.10 , his ex is Carrie Symonds lol there, thats us told

JTMan · 22-03-2021 01:04PM

wes wrote: »

Have the Russians enough to vaccinate there own people? How much are they producing? I have no issues with it being used once it has EMA approval, but can they deliver in time for it to make a difference? If we can't get sputnik until like July or August, then is there much point buying any?

Hungary got supply from outside the EU. Seems like Czech Republic will also get supply outside the EU. Can Ireland get supply from outside the EU? Who know but surely it is worth the Irish government engaging with the Russians and asking in advance of potential EMA approval.

RTE have just posted this piece saying that Russia open to 'no strings attached' vaccine discussion.

Realize Russia are playing games but every little helps with supply.

trellheim · 22-03-2021 01:08PM

Looking back at that Reddit post linked above, I've been really reluctant to get into other country comparisons although there's little else as our government isnt publishing detailed expectations ( given AZ, you can't blame them )

Someone also up-thread was talking about communicating possible good news and why its not being talked about - well if the vaccines don't arrive and numbers surge again ( as is currently possible ) then its actually worse for all concerned

IRISHSPORTSGUY · 22-03-2021 01:10PM

trellheim wrote: »

And we are off ! A Sun article lol

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/14416930/uk-no-choice-but-to-block-vaccine-ingredients-eu-war/

Its harry cole article so a direct link to No.10 , his ex is Carrie Symonds lol there, thats us told

How confident are the EU they can source the materials from elsewhere? Surely they'd have to be very confident if they're gonna go through with it.

Hmmzis · 22-03-2021 01:12PM

Some interesting preliminary data on how the SA (B.351) induced antibodies react to other variants out there:

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.06.434193v2.full.pdf

The nABs induced by the B.351 spike are somewhat more potent against the Brazilian (P1) variant (3x increase) than against B.351 itself, they're also very good at any ancestral variants (3-4x drops but nothing overly concerning, only 7% KOs when compared to 48% KOs the other way around).

In short, a vaccine with either the B.351 (SA) spike alone or a bivalent one that includes an ancestral variant spike should be enough to provide a broad and potent nAB response against anything detected to date and possibly any future variants as well.

lbj666 · 22-03-2021 01:18PM

Jimbee wrote: »

Interesting but I wonder if the vaccine was administered to the younger group first would it have been even faster. Younger group being more likely to spread the virus and cause mutations. Especially when there is a shortage of vaccines.
Excuse my emotionless analysis but makes sense to put water water on the base of the fire rather than the flames.

Plain and simply no. With limited supply you directly target those with highest mortality risk. Anything else is diminishing returns.

Focussing on young first is an extremely long way round approach to preventing mortality in elderly and would have been based on limited information on preventing transmission. It would take a significant proportion of the population to be vaccinated to see that impact, certainly way more than the 1.2m over 65s prioritised.

trellheim · 22-03-2021 01:19PM

ow confident are the EU they can source the materials from elsewhere? Surely they'd have to be very confident if they're gonna go through with it.

Eu 27 leaders meeting virtually 25-26 , this is on the agenda, this is just HMG doing pot-shots in advance

(agenda) https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/european-council/2021/03/25-26/

cameramonkey · 22-03-2021 01:20PM

JTMan wrote: »

Hungary got supply from outside the EU. Seems like Czech Republic will also get supply outside the EU. Can Ireland get supply from outside the EU? Who know but surely it is worth the Irish government engaging with the Russians and asking in advance of potential EMA approval.

RTE have just posted this piece saying that Russia open to 'no strings attached' vaccine discussion.

Realize Russia are playing games but every little helps with supply.

How are Russia playing games? Our nearest neighbour the UK and also the US are banning exports of vaccines. If the UK and the US were offering us vaccines and the Russians were banning vaccine exports would you say that the UK and US were playing games?

Very curious.

ixoy · 22-03-2021 01:23PM

On a lighter note, I think this image captures the current vaccine producers quite well:

eeepaulo · 22-03-2021 01:26PM

marno21 wrote: »

The Israel data posted above also means we can conclude beyond reasonable doubt that the vaccines do indeed stop transmission. Lockdown over with some time now and the R0 is falling beyond 0.6. Whatever about swabbing vaccinated people and doing statistical analysis like what we’ve seen to date, the R0 being so low with the country reopened is tangible proof of this

While we can’t conclude it’ll have the exact same effect here due to the AZ vaccine being used also, it shows that the mRNA vaccines have been nothing less than a miracle of medicine. >95% effectiveness and stopping transmission for a vaccine that took less than a year to develop on a platform that was unproven.

Is that transmission within a vaccinated society or it stops an individual who was vaccinated from being contagious?

iamwhoiam · 22-03-2021 01:42PM

I don’t know enough about this vaccine to have an opinion but was wondering if it would be helpful to give everyone admitted to hospital with Covid a dose of Pfizer ?
Would it prevent escalation of symptoms ?

josip · 22-03-2021 01:48PM

Dressoutlet wrote: »

I do think it was ridiculous to vaccinate people who had days left to live, I know this practice stopped but what a waste of vaccines. And I apologise of this sounds crass and cold I do not intend it

Was this actually done or are you assuming it was done by virtue of the age cohorts?
As far as I know, it's standard practice to withhold vaccines etc from elderly patients if their doctor suspects that side effects from the vaccine might tip them over the edge.

stephenjmcd · 22-03-2021 01:49PM

Interesting comments from Belgium, currently fourth bottom in terms of first dose in Europe but now looking based on supply of course of first dose for over 18s by 11th July.

https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1373978865589231618?s=20

is_that_so · 22-03-2021 01:53PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Interesting comments from Belgium, currently fourth bottom in terms of first dose in Europe but now looking based on supply of course of first dose for over 18s by 11th July.

https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1373978865589231618?s=20

What knocks some of the excitement out of this type of news is that it is so supply dependent on one company. People need to hear of it but a fair risk there will be backtracking on dates.

22-03-2021 02:00PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I don't usually post things from Reddit but there was some fairly significant vaccine analysis posted on r/Ireland tonight with sources. Fair play to u/bubble831 for this.

Why the vaccination situation isn't as bad as it seems [Long post]

https://www.reddit.com/r/ireland/comments/ma2y3h/why_the_vaccination_situation_isnt_as_bad_as_it/

Great post, very informative.

22-03-2021 02:00PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Interesting comments from Belgium, currently fourth bottom in terms of first dose in Europe but now looking based on supply of course of first dose for over 18s by 11th July.

https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1373978865589231618?s=20

How does this happen for one EU nation but not another?

JTMan · 22-03-2021 02:08PM

cameramonkey wrote: »

How are Russia playing games?

Russia are in it more for the propaganda than to help the EU.

Case in point ... on Twitter, I got a promoted advertisement message promoting the Sputnik V vaccine!!

One has to ask why are Russia so eager for the EU to start using their vaccine when they have only vaccinated a tiny percentage of Russia? Because they want to sell a story that 'mighty Russia rescued the EU' even if that is not true.

Knowing all this, if Russia can get EMA approval soon and supply from outside the EU, I think it is worth Ireland engaging with Russia on a bi-lateral agreement.

is_that_so · 22-03-2021 02:11PM

11521323 wrote: »

How does this happen for one EU nation but not another?

Could be down to what they've included in their projections. Ours seems to account for more possible AZ shenanigans.

XsApollo · 22-03-2021 02:13PM

Russia need help manufacturing the vaccine , they wouldn’t be supplying Europe from their own manufacturing sites I imagine.
EMA approval would likely help them get it manufactured somewhere.
If it’s a vaccine that works and the data proves that then what does it matter.

22-03-2021 02:14PM

Hmmzis wrote: »

Interesting dynamics, from just eyeballing, it looks like at around 40% coverage there is a significant drop across each age group, then at 60% it looks to take a nosedive.

If so, you'd expect the UK numbers to fall off a cliff in the coming weeks.

cameramonkey · 22-03-2021 02:19PM

JTMan wrote: »

Russia are in it more for the propaganda than to help the EU.

Case in point ... on Twitter, I got a promoted advertisement message promoting the Sputnik V vaccine!!

One has to ask why are Russia so eager for the EU to start using their vaccine when they have only vaccinated a tiny percentage of Russia? Because they want to sell a story that 'mighty Russia rescued the EU' even if that is not true.

Knowing all this, if Russia can get EMA approval soon and supply from outside the EU, I think it is worth Ireland engaging with Russia on a bi-lateral agreement.

All movement on vaccines by all countries is about national interests first and foremost and you would have to naive to think otherwise. We will see that unfold pretty soon with the EU and the UK. Do you think the UK current vaccine roll out is not being used for political gain? Do you think if we were more successful here with our roll out that the government would not be looking for political gain? According to the Lancet the russian vaccine seems to be a good vaccine, that should be what is important and not some cheap political points scoring exercise every time Russia is mentioned.

Melanchthon · 22-03-2021 02:19PM

AdamD wrote: »

If so, you'd expect the UK numbers to fall off a cliff in the coming weeks.

Death rates in northern Ireland do seem to have been lower the last while already.

COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

Comments