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Covid 19 Part XXXIII-231,484 ROI(4,610 deaths)116,197 NI (2,107 deaths)(23/03)Read OP

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Comments

  • #8642
    the kelt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,890 ✭✭✭the kelt


    is_that_so wrote: »
    You might want to revisit the meaning of the word "claim". I said it has been suggested. I have no opinion on the data. I'm certainly not qualified to evaluate it apart from to acknowledge that it is the data and that I believe it has been presented truthfully. You are free to believe otherwise.

    So what data told you it was a suggested spike from paddy’s day?

    And who said data wasn’t being presented truthfully? Community cases go up when schools go back. Do you think it’s just a coincidence!


  • #8643
    bennyl10
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,603 ✭✭✭bennyl10


    lawred2 wrote: »
    Only someone detached from reality would suggest masks all day for 4 - 10 year olds

    Funny how this isn’t an issue for other countries?

    Children can wear masks! They spread disease the same as everyone else


  • #8644
    FishOnABike
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,947 ✭✭✭FishOnABike


    11521323 wrote: »
    The percentage of people following is dropping by the day, go outside and see for yourself. It's not a small subset of selfish individuals, people all over the country are sick and tired of this shambolic management by our leaders.

    ... and absolutely no sense of personal responsibility. It's always someone else's fault.


  • #8645
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    the kelt wrote: »
    So what data told you it was a suggested spike from paddy’s day?
    You're conflating two things here, data as we get it and what I've been talking about and the suggestion/explanation that recent potential gathering events may play a part in the rise, which comes from this article, not me.


    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/another-surge-in-covid-19-possible-just-ahead-of-decision-time-on-lifting-curbs-1.4516285


  • #8646
    Benimar
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,794 ✭✭✭Benimar


    A friend of mine is a teacher in a county with low numbers. There have been 3 cases in his CLASS, but all are being treated as community transmission by the HSE. Nobody deemed a close contact and no mass testing undertaken.

    I want my kids in school but I’d much prefer that we weren’t fed this BS that schools are some sort of Narnia.


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  • #8647
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    FishOnABike wrote: »
    ... and absolutely no sense of personal responsibility. It's always someone else's fault.
    Just as there is always someone else to blame for our situation!


  • #8648
    Golfman64
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 314 ✭✭Golfman64


    Turtwig wrote: »
    Aye but they all have plans right? Right???

    Yep, they mostly all have plans driven by hospitalisation and ICU numbers together with a more balanced and nuanced set of restrictions that open more clearly safe activities and keep those which are actually dangerous, closed. They achieve higher public buy in due to logical and rational application of these restrictions and they do not hang every move on a stale, outdated team of public health professionals during a bi-weekly conference.


  • #8649
    Jinglejangle69
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,238 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    Cases are going up because of schools.

    There's a trade off and always will be with covid.

    Schools are the trade off and rightly so.


  • #8650
    the kelt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,890 ✭✭✭the kelt


    Jinglejangle69 wrote: »
    Cases are going up because of schools.

    There's a trade off and always will be with covid.

    Schools are the trade off and rightly so.

    Exactly, higher case numbers were always the price to pay for schools going back, and i agree they need to be back, but its amazing how many people dont get that. Must be mothers Day!


  • #8651
    the kelt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,890 ✭✭✭the kelt


    is_that_so wrote: »
    You're conflating two things here, data as we get it and what I've been talking about and the suggestion/explanation that recent potential gathering events may play a part in the rise, which comes from this article, not me.


    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/another-surge-in-covid-19-possible-just-ahead-of-decision-time-on-lifting-curbs-1.4516285

    Ok so now your speculating as to what might happen because when someone suggested previously it was schools causing the numbers you said

    Mother's Day and Paddy's Day activities are being implicated and are far more likely culprits

    And then you said the following

    People gathering and meeting, sessions etc. All it takes is a small cohort in the most socially active groups and add in a large number of contacts. Almost 25% positivity in contacts will spread it.

    Because the above could only happen on Mothers Day and Paddy Day and not EVERY day in schools. People gathering in socially active settings indoors, un masked FIVE days a week couldnt be the reason!!

    Sure!!


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  • #8652
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    the kelt wrote: »
    Exactly, higher case numbers were always the price to pay for schools going back, and i agree they need to be back, but its amazing how many people dont get that. Must be mothers Day!
    Three events last week, two of which could have involved adults behaving badly and yet you're convinced the one that doesn't is to blame despite knowing that adults caused our Christmas surge.


  • #8653
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,775 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    One thing is for certain, NPHET will almost definitely recommend continuing Lv. 5 restrictions post-April 5.


  • #8654
    Vicxas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,637 ✭✭✭✭Vicxas


    Journal article saying hospitalisations rose again yesterday.

    They do realise very few people get discharged at the weekend.


  • #8655
    the kelt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,890 ✭✭✭the kelt


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Three events last week, two of which could have involved adults behaving badly and yet you're convinced the one that doesn't is to blame despite knowing that adults caused our Christmas surge.

    So only adults misbehaving that caused our Christmas surge!!!

    Ok then!

    Schools back, literally thousands more people on the move every day of the week, thousands of students back indoors in crowded classrooms, thousands of teachers back out mobilising again as a result but no, virus only spreads to those behaving badly apparently


  • #8656
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    the kelt wrote: »
    Ok so now your speculating as to what might happen because when someone suggested previously it was schools causing the numbers you said

    Mother's Day and Paddy's Day activities are being implicated and are far more likely culprits

    And then you said the following

    People gathering and meeting, sessions etc. All it takes is a small cohort in the most socially active groups and add in a large number of contacts. Almost 25% positivity in contacts will spread it.

    Because the above could only happen on Mothers Day and Paddy Day and not EVERY day in schools. People gathering in socially active settings indoors, un masked FIVE days a week couldnt be the reason!!

    Sure!!
    I'm a fan of Occam's Razor, you're selective in the data you'll believe to the point that all HSE data is fine but that from schools is not. Based on this post you won't be moved from that belief so we'll move on.


  • #8657
    timmyntc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,694 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Deleted User wrote: »
    One thing is for certain, NPHET will almost definitely recommend continuing Lv. 5 restrictions post-April 5.

    We are already seeing level 5 prove ineffective. So why bother continuing with it?
    If people are acting like we're in level 4 or level 3, you might as well get some economic benefit out of it by actually moving to those levels. To stay in level 5 with poor compliance and cases rising is mad.

    Unless they invent a level 6 and deploy the defence forces to force people in their homes, I don't think there will be any reduction in cases.

    It's time for a new approach


  • #8658
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    the kelt wrote: »
    So only adults misbehaving that caused our Christmas surge!!!

    Ok then!

    Schools back, literally thousands more people on the move every day of the week, thousands of students back indoors in crowded classrooms, thousands of teachers back out mobilising again as a result but no, virus only spreads to those behaving badly apparently
    You really do have a hang-up about schools, I don't. The schools thread will give you a far better fight on this.


  • #8659
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Three events last week, two of which could have involved adults behaving badly and yet you're convinced the one that doesn't is to blame despite knowing that adults caused our Christmas surge.

    Chris Whitty in the UK speaks openly about how schools reopening will drive up cases, but that that is just something that they have to manage given the importance of having schools open

    They treat the population like adults who can handle that truth. I don’t understand why we can’t be treated the same. Or maybe Irish children at different to those in every other country


  • #8660
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Chris Whitty in the UK speaks openly about how schools reopening will drive up case rates, but that that is just something that they have to manage given the importance of having schools open

    They treat the population like adults who can handle that truth. I don’t understand why we can’t be treated the same. Or maybe Irish children at different to those in every other country
    Well, you need to disprove the HSE data and assertions then, not quote other jurisdictions.


  • #8661
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,385 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    the kelt wrote: »
    And on the flip side in the last week or so numbers have jumped here in Wexford, all from schools.

    Multiple cases in 3 schools in my local town alone.

    But is this cause or effect? If numbers are rising in a county then numbers will rise in the county's schools too.

    The reopening of schools could be the cause, I accept. Some increase from schools reopening seems logical. But if it was the main reason you can't really understand how we have had counties the size/population of Kilkenny, Kerry and Cork with falling numbers over the last 3 weeks.


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  • #8662
    Sweet.Science
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,177 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    Leftwaffe wrote: »
    I read a newspaper front page that said the Gardai felt it was a waste of resources. Whilst the ridiculous 5km stoppages are for some reason.

    If there’s no security presence at the hotels we may forget about it. On the other hand it will probably be ****e anyway.

    Assumed it would be a half assed effort alright.


  • #8663
    the kelt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,890 ✭✭✭the kelt


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    But is this cause or effect? If numbers are rising in a county then numbers will rise in the county's schools too.

    The reopening of schools could be the cause, I accept. Some increase from schools reopening seems logical. But if it was the main reason you can't really understand how we have had counties the size/population of Kilkenny, Kerry and Cork with falling numbers over the last 3 weeks.

    Exactly.

    No its not the only reason, it couldnt possibly be, But to discount it totally as a reason would be illogical.

    But i suppose a lot of people will throw logic out the window when the man on the telly in the suit tells them something different.

    Logic tells you with this virus you cant suddenly have thousands of extra people moving about into situations ripe for spreading this virus for 2 weeks or more every day and think its not an issue compared to one or two other days because "adults misbehaved on those one off days" and therefore are bigger culprits.

    The virus doesnt have a moral compass.


  • #8664
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,595 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    Vicxas wrote: »
    Journal article saying hospitalisations rose again yesterday.

    They do realise very few people get discharged at the weekend.

    A rise of 32 (saturday morning to Sunday morning) would be unusual even at weekends.

    It meant that our Sunday morning beds number was identical to the previous Monday number.

    Rise of 5 or 10 would be expected.

    Last week we went from 340 (saturday morning after Friday discharges) to 360 (Monday morning after 48 hours of very little discharges).,

    This week we went from 328 (saturday) to 360 (sunday) with Monday still to come in with more of a rise probably.


  • #8665
    lawred2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,835 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    the kelt wrote: »
    Exactly.

    No its not the only reason, it couldnt possibly be, But to discount it totally as a reason would be illogical.

    But i suppose a lot of people will throw logic out the window when the man on the telly in the suit tells them something different.

    Logic tells you with this virus you cant suddenly have thousands of extra people moving about into situations ripe for spreading this virus for 2 weeks or more every day and think its not an issue compared to one or two other days because "adults misbehaved on those one off days" and therefore are bigger culprits.

    The virus doesnt have a moral compass.

    Who's discounting schools totally?


  • #8666
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Well, you need to disprove the HSE data and assertions then, not quote other jurisdictions.

    The HSE data is presented in a way to support a certain narrative. Basically, if you don't believe schools contribute to transmission, then you cant believe that international travel contributes to transmission. You cant have it both ways

    BY the way, I think schools absolutely should be open like normal. But the suggestion that they wont increase transmission is just laughable


  • #8667
    Sweet.Science
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,177 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    the kelt wrote: »
    Exactly.

    No its not the only reason, it couldnt possibly be, But to discount it totally as a reason would be illogical.

    But i suppose a lot of people will throw logic out the window when the man on the telly in the suit tells them something different.

    Logic tells you with this virus you cant suddenly have thousands of extra people moving about into situations ripe for spreading this virus for 2 weeks or more every day and think its not an issue compared to one or two other days because "adults misbehaved on those one off days" and therefore are bigger culprits.

    The virus doesnt have a moral compass.

    Didnt Ronan Glynn say the schools going back could give off the vibe that a sense of normality resumed and people attitudes could change . Thats exactly what happened

    Schools going back was going to cause a slight jump in numbers in itself but it has also coincided with the public no longer adhering to level 5 rules

    It was always going to happen .


  • #8668
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,522 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »
    A rise of 32 (saturday morning to Sunday morning) would be unusual even at weekends.

    It meant that our Sunday morning beds number was identical to the previous Monday number.

    Rise of 5 or 10 would be expected.

    Last week we went from 340 (saturday morning after Friday discharges) to 360 (Monday morning after 48 hours of very little discharges).,

    This week we went from 328 (saturday) to 360 (sunday) with Monday still to come in with more of a rise probably.

    Except there wasn't 32 new admissions so a distinct difference is required here when looking at numbers & I don't think journalists are even aware that the metric has changed, I note the Independent reported over the weekend that there was 40 odd admissions on Satuday which is incorrect, there was 22 between 11am Sat & 11am Sunday. There was 19 cases identified through hospital labs yesterday & 27 on sat. The reporting metric on the hub has changed, you need to now look at the dataset to see the admissions for the 24hrs. See link below. - SUM_no_new_admissions_covid19_posit

    154 admissions Sunday to Sunday while there was 173 discharges.

    Last Sunday 14th saw 14 admissions, this Sunday 21st saw 22 admissions.

    https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/datasets/fe9bb23592ec4142a4f4c2c9bd32f749_0/data?page=38

    Why they felt the need to change the headline figure...who knows


  • #8669
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,775 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    timmyntc wrote: »
    We are already seeing level 5 prove ineffective. So why bother continuing with it?
    If people are acting like we're in level 4 or level 3, you might as well get some economic benefit out of it by actually moving to those levels. To stay in level 5 with poor compliance and cases rising is mad.

    Unless they invent a level 6 and deploy the defence forces to force people in their homes, I don't think there will be any reduction in cases.

    It's time for a new approach

    Couldn't agree more; the same point I made here yesterday.

    But something tells me that NPHET will blame the public rather than it being the fault of Lv. 5 in principle.

    Of course, they won't be direct about the culpability but they will reel out the terms, "increase in mobility and cases within private homes", which is code for, "the public isn't doing what we told them to do" (finger-wagging condescending language).


  • #8670
    bennyl10
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,603 ✭✭✭bennyl10


    Deleted User wrote: »
    One thing is for certain, NPHET will almost definitely recommend continuing Lv. 5 restrictions post-April 5.

    as is there job.

    I would expect nothing less from NPHET as they report solely on data.

    What needs to happen is the government to show leadership and say 'we need a change'


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  • #8671
    covidrelease
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 229 ✭✭covidrelease


    gozunda wrote: »
    This was your previous reply



    How would allowing hospitals to fill up with growing number of people sick with covid be good management?

    We're currently in the midst of a pandemic. I'm no great fan of our current politicians. But they're tasked with trying to manage or at least contain the rate of infection. But fuk it I'd hate to be them. They're damned if the do and damned if they don't no matter what happens.



    Nphet as an expert group advise and the government decide to implement thst advice etc. Are restrictions necessary to help keep down the rate of infection? Yes they are imho. With the exception of construction the UK government goes even further with strict stay at home orders and making foreign travel for holidays actually illegal. Ditto coffeed shops which can only offer a take away service - no sitting outside. And I'm not comparing our approach to theirs but simply showing such restrictions are fairly common atm.

    What we do need to do need to do is keep vaccinating. And get more vaccines where possible. So we can start to roll back restrictions

    And yes people will continue to spread covid to each other if restrictions aren't observed in the medium term whilst the majority of people are still unvaccinated. Thats just the way it is.

    I think most people accept we need restrictions, but they need to be the right ones and proportionate to the number of cases at a point in time.

    Construction closed is ridiculous, everybody is working away anyway, either insider doing nixers (arguably more dangerous) than on outdoor sites. The government / NPHET should accept this rather than pretend its not happening.

    The 5K rule, implemented at ~8000 cases a day but still in place, all it doing is pissing people off and turning people away from compliance.

    Gatherings outside, no reason not to allow outdoor gatherings at picnic benches, outside coffee shops etc., people are doing it indoors instead which is more dangerous.

    Last week NPHET went on a rant about takeaway pints, all the big Paddys day parties / Cheltenham gatherings took place indoors, it would be much safer to allow some level of outdoor drinking in controlled environments.

    The government / NPHET need to accept that these tough measures are not acceptable and counterproductive.

    To the best of my knowledge bars and restaurants in New York staying largely open all winter, either outdoors or 25% capacity etc.


This discussion has been closed.
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