COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

snotboogie wrote: »

250k vaccines between the 18th and 31st of March seems extraordinary. That's 20k vaccines a day and a nearly 40% increase in our total vaccinations in 13 days. It also puts us at an average of 0.4 vaccines per 100 people per day for 13 days when we have struggled to maintain anything above a 0.2 for any length of time.

Not having a pop at you BTW, appreciate your answer. Just wanted to share some of my concerns. If we reach 900k by the end of the month the ramp up will be now. Vaccine figures will be fascinating over the next two weeks.

TLDR; Over 70s should be finished with one dose by the end of the week beginning the 12th of April. 65-69 should begin getting theirs either that week or the week before. Serious at risk group will all have their first vaccinations by the week ending the 11th of April. Government should have enough vaccines for 86% of our population to be fully vaccinated by the end of June thus the 80% with a first dose looks very realistic.

There’s been a lot of talk recently about how people don’t believe that the vaccination process is going to be ramped up and people confused about when they will have an opportunity to be vaccinated. I wanted to set a few things straight and perhaps convince people that things aren’t as bad as they might think.

Firstly, the boring stuff (warning, the whole post is quite boring). All my information comes directly from government data. I will be using a combination of the original Irish delivery schedule (a month outdated) as well as the Swedish vaccine schedule (linked below, updated weekly) as my sources. I will obviously adjust the Swedish figures for our population (divided by 2.08). I will also be using data from the Danish scheduler to try and pinpoint potential weekly deliveries in March and April. I will not be using the Danish data to find out how many doses Ireland will receive as it is well known that Denmark gets a higher per capita amount of vaccines than Ireland and other EU countries (that’s a story for another day). I am also going to assume that we continue to administer pretty much all vaccines we get on a particular week (eg week 1) on the following week (eg week 2). This is fairly consistent with the evidence we have so far (for example we received 93k vaccines on the week beginning the 1st of March and administered roughly 92k vaccines on the week starting the 8th of March)

So, thus far we received 758k vaccines up to last Sunday. In December we had 40k vaccines delivered. In January we had 166k. In February we saw 312k. In the first two weeks of March we received 238k (compared to 143k in the first two weeks of Feb). We received 144,840 vaccines in the week starting the 8th of March. The highest before that was 94,620 in the week beginning the 15th of Feb and 93,330 for the week beginning the 1st of March. This is clear evidence of a ramp up and this will continue to get better. We are due 1.1 million vaccines by the end of March, this target is consistent with Swedish vaccine figures which are updated weekly (every Friday). This means 342k in the last 2.5 weeks of the quarter, and average of 136,800 per week. But we are due 40k extra Pfizer due to a deal agreed last week with the EU so we are actually due something around 1.14 million in the quarter. Now, Paul Reid said today we got around 10k AZ this week. This is consistent with the Danes expecting around 14k. They expect this amount again next week (week starting the 22nd) with the vast majority of AZ coming in the last week (beginning 29th) and thus this would be administered on the week beginning the 5th of April. Moderna still owe us 60k vaccines this quarter also. We have been told to expect it towards the end of the month. Judging by the Danish vaccine schedule we would be due this the week beginning the 22nd. Anyway I’m rambling through my points now, but you get the idea. Thus, below is the estimated vaccine administration for up to the end of April, basically estimated deliveries plus one week. For Moderna, half the doses delivered are kept back for second doses, while Pfizer and AZ are pretty much all given out.

Week 10 (completed already) : 617k

Week 11 (beginning 15th of March) : 60k (all Pfizer due to AZ cancelation) = 677k

Week 12 (22nd March) : 165k (75k Pfizer + 90k AZ, consisting of 80k in fridges due to pause and 10k deliveries) = 842k

Week 13 (29th March) : 125k (75K Pfizer + 30k Moderna + 10k AZ) = 967k

Week 14 (5th April) : 175k (75k Pfizer + 100k AZ) = 1.142 million

Week 15 (12th April) : 192k (140k Pfizer + 10k Moderna + 42k AZ) = 1.334 million

Week 16 (19th April) : 180k (140k Pfizer + 40k AZ) = 1.514 million

Week 17 (26th April) : 263k (140k Pfizer + 50k Moderna [20k first dose, 30k second dose] + 73k AZ) = 1.777 million

Week 18 (3rd May) : 349k (140k Pfizer + 209k AZ) = 2.126 million

Note that this does not include J&J deliveries in April which are projected to be around 100k. This gets us to 2.226 million vaccines delivered by the end of April. Per capita, by the Swedish vaccine schedule we should have 2.235 million, so this is roughly correct in terms of what each week should look like (especially when you add in the 20k Moderna doses that have been administered as first doses and will be slowly given out as second doses in the coming 4 weeks)

Now, what does that mean for each cohort? Well, I’m going to assume, other than second doses, cohorts 1 and 2 are finished (which is pretty much correct). Per the links below there are around 500k people over 70 and 700k people over 65 (thus 200k 65-69). There are 140k-150k people in cohort 4 (no source on this I just read it was around that number, feel free to correct). The 65-69 age cohort are due the AZ after the serious at risk group. Only 5k of these have been done so basically the next 150k AZ will be given to them.

This puts the 65-69 group starting on the week of the 5th of April or the week starting the 12th of April.

There are roughly 350k doses of mRNA vaccines that need to be given as second doses before the 18th of April. There are around 150k over 70s with one dose so this leaves around 350k yet to get a dose. This would have all over 70s getting a dose by the end of the week beginning the 12th of April (again this is consistent with the governments promise of all over 70s getting a jab by mid-April).

Cohorts 6 (which is small enough) and cohort 7 should thus begin somewhere around the 19th of April, if not the week earlier.

Again this is all kind of confusing but the general point is we have vaccines coming, and the programme will significantly ramp up in the coming weeks. By the end of June we should have somewhere around 5.25 million 2 dose vaccines and 600k J&J (not including CureVac approval). This is enough to fully vaccinate 3.225 million people or 86% of the adult population. This includes 1.2 million AZ. If you exclude AZ (unreliable), we would still have enough to fully vaccinate 70% of our population by the end of Q2 (again, add at least a week for the vaccines to be administered)

Irish delivery schedule (published in February) https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/c4876-covid-19-resilience-and-recovery-2021-the-path-ahead/

Original vaccine schedule post https://www.reddit.com/r/ireland/comments/lr9t5o/vaccinations_in_ireland_as_of_21022021_total/gokiqll/

Swedish vaccination schedule (Deliveries): https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/statistik-och-analyser/prognos-av-vaccinleveranser/

Danish vaccination calendar: https://www.sst.dk/-/media/Udgivelser/2021/Corona/Vaccination/Kalender/Specificeret-vaccinationskalender-19032021.ashx?la=da&hash=DFDFB441004E2C313ED7724FCE2018DF26650DC9

Irish week 9 and 10 deliveries: https://twitter[dot]com/newschambers/status/1372150312316833798

Irish first two months deliveries: https://twitter[dot]com/FergalBowers/status/1367521128646852609/photo/1

Estimated over 70s breakdown: https://twitter[dot]com/FergalBowers/status/1366026746127130629

Ireland population demographics: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cp7md/p7md/p7dgs/

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I don't usually post things from Reddit but there was some fairly significant vaccine analysis posted on r/Ireland tonight with sources. Fair play to u/bubble831 for this.

Why the vaccination situation isn't as bad as it seems [Long post]


https://www.reddit.com/r/ireland/comments/ma2y3h/why_the_vaccination_situation_isnt_as_bad_as_it/

Red Silurian wrote: »

These figures are fantastic, if true, but the govt have said they'll be administering 1.3m doses in the months of April, May and June and by the looks of your post they'll only be getting 935k between weeks 13-17

Wolf359f wrote: »

That does exclude J&J from April onwards and also Curevac from (possibly) June onwards. But I don't believe our Governments timetable included Curevac at all.

Wolf359f wrote: »

Sweden may need to update their forecast so.
https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/statistik-och-analyser/prognos-av-vaccinleveranser/
They could be just being super optimistic though.

marno21 wrote: »

Further to ACE's excellent post sourced from Reddit above, the current delivery schedules given us 106.5 doses per 100 people of the 2 dose vaccines plus another 600k J&J vaccines, which if compared to the 2 dose vaccines, would allow us to have 131 doses per 100 people (counting J&J's vaccines as 2 doses for this exercise).

Israel are currently at 111 per 100 people. Israel opened a few weeks ago and cases continue to drop, even though they were going through a heavy wave during the initial weeks of vaccination. The R0 there is 0.7 and dropping, and deaths and hospitalisations have fallen off a cliff.

I have little doubt that come July we will be worlds apart from where we are now. What annoys me is that there is fcuk all effort being made to communicate this and cases are rising in Ireland again because the public are fed up with 18 weeks of glorified house arrest over the last 21 weeks

Sanjuro wrote: »

I presume they'll start using the millions of doses they've stockpiled now?