COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

noplacehere · 21-03-2021 03:43PM

ddarcy wrote: »

Got to love the contacts to get the vaccine. Just got a text for one tomorrow, the AZ one. I thought I would be waiting until June to get it. I’m guessing they didn’t have enough in the current groups and moved me up. Now I need to rearrange my whole day tomorrow morning to get it. Should be fun I guess.

I’ll take it... group 4 and no contact. It’s mad how it’s varying

Wolf359f · 21-03-2021 03:43PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Vaccine diplomacy is generating tensions in Asia.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/mar/21/china-india-coronavirus-covid-vaccine-diplomacy-is-reaching-its-limit

Also the Serum Institute of India (SII) has told Brazil, Saudi Arabia and Morocco that further supplies of the AstraZeneca vaccine will be delayed due to surging demand at home.

We can probably expect to hear more of both stories.

India have exported 60mil to over 70 countries and have used only 45mil themselves. They have already blocked half of the 10mil order to the UK. Worldwide demand certainly straining the few counties exporting vaccines.

ddarcy · 21-03-2021 03:51PM

noplacehere wrote: »

I’ll take it... group 4 and no contact. It’s mad how it’s varying

Yeah I should be in Group 7, but my consultant mentioned two weeks ago that since I’ve been Type 1 diabetic for 20 plus years that they were trying to move me up for that. My HBA1C isn’t anywhere close to being bad (I am actually very stable, CGM/Pump) and my levels mimic a non diabetic. But I’d guess that’s why. Also assuming as I’m somewhat remote that they are trying to move people up to ensure the open bottles don’t go to waste.

firemansam4 · 21-03-2021 03:58PM

We are starting to see a consistant theme of lower case numbers in NI, and certainly fatalities seem a lot lower compared to the republic more recently, and this is taking into account the population difference.

I wonder if this Is evidence that the advanced vaccination program in the north is starting to take much more of an effect now compared to south of the border? or is it that they are just getting a better handle in cases there now?

SheepsClothing · 21-03-2021 04:31PM

firemansam4 wrote: »

We are starting to see a consistant theme of lower case numbers in NI, and certainly fatalities seem a lot lower compared to the republic more recently, and this is taking into account the population difference.

I wonder if this Is evidence that the advanced vaccination program in the north is starting to take much more of an effect now compared to south of the border? or is it that they are just getting a better handle in cases there now?

I'm sure the vaccinations are having an effect, but young school children only went back to in person schooling last week and secondary hasn't gone back at all yet. It could be that after a few weeks, they'll see a rise in the R number.

JTMan · 21-03-2021 04:31PM

Latest on when children will be vaccinated in this WSJ article here (paywall). Seems like 12-15 year olds will get vaccinated a lot quicker than Fauchi's prior prediction of August. That's good news for getting us closer to herd immunity ...

By midsummer, 75% of Americans 12 years old and above should be vaccinated, according to Morgan Stanley. The vaccines aren’t currently authorized for anyone younger than 16, but companies may have results this spring for studies of the shots in adolescents 12 and older, which, if positive, could lead to vaccinations for that age group. The companies are also starting to test the vaccines in children younger than 12, but results of those studies aren’t expected until late this year.

Production is really mapping up in the US ...

- Pfizer has more than doubled its weekly U.S. output of Covid-19 vaccine doses to more than 13 million, from five million at the beginning of February.Pfizer increased production by recycling the filters because supply of filters is an issue.
- Moderna increasing the number of doses in each vial to 15 from 10.

Meanwhile, there is a patent issue brewing ...

- There is a patent issue with molecular engineering which is at the core of nearly all the vaccines. The US own the patent which is going to be formally granted at the end of March. Some countries was the US to use this patent ownership to force drug manufactures to supply less affluent countries. South Africa and India have taken the battle to the World Trade Organization, seeking a waiver on patent restrictions for Covid-19 vaccines.

seamus · 21-03-2021 04:47PM

hmmm wrote: »

But it does show I think that it is not sufficient simply to vaccinate the so-called "vulnerable" and then allow the disease to run rampant - it can overwhelm hospitals if enough of the non-vulnerable become sick.

This is it. This is effectively what Dr Glynn was saying and people were going mad.

No, this disease isn't Ebola, but it's also not "just a little flu" for those under 65. While the odds of any individual being very sick are relatively small, once you scale up to population levels, 100,000 active infections results in a lot of very sick people even when the vulnerable are protected.

snotboogie · 21-03-2021 05:11PM

trellheim wrote: »

Just a look back on deliveries

Debate here between myself and a few people on deliveries was in the main around whether it would be

850,000, 930,000, 1.1 million, 1.4 millon, or 1.7 million deliveries in Q1.

Latest published information ( and should be out again on Wednesday )

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/4f48c-update-on-covid-19-vaccine-deliveries-17-march-2021/

As of 17th March 758,490

Deliveries in the previous two weeks have been 93330 and 144,840

If that continues at that pace then averaging the two above approx 120,000 per week in 14 days to end of Q1 then we should make the million, with the extra promised Pfizer 45000 doses that should make 1.05 million. ( and I will have been wrong in underestimating it farther back in the thread )

How many will we realistically have adminstered by the end of Q1. As of the 18th we had only done 650k.

seamus · 21-03-2021 05:16PM

I'd say we can expect 900,000 done by the end of the month, if not more. We'll hit the 1m mark in early April and 2m a month later.

trellheim · 21-03-2021 05:24PM

How many will we realistically have adminstered by the end of Q1. As of the 18th we had only done 650k.

its fairly consistent so far (ignoring the AZ messing on/off this week) of a lag of a week or so between delivery and administration

the bottleneck is delivery, nothing else. Hence all the anger at AZ.

arrianalexander · 21-03-2021 05:24PM

Feel free to move mods if inappropriate for this forum

OH got astra vaccine, over a week ago after a few days of feeling quite unwell she improved but her arm remained sore.

It hasn't gone away , it's actually inflamed the area where she got the bcg vaccine.

We are ringing gp tomorrow, just wondering has anyone heard of this , specifically affecting the bcg area

seamus · 21-03-2021 05:30PM

Dunno about the BCG bit, probably just coincidental, but soreness at the injection site for a week afterwards is relatively common for many vaccinations.

arrianalexander · 21-03-2021 05:32PM

seamus wrote: »

Dunno about the BCG bit, probably just coincidental, but soreness at the injection site for a week afterwards is relatively common for many vaccinations.

We aren't overly concerned , she thought it would have eased if anything if sorer now than a few days ago

Russman · 21-03-2021 05:33PM

seamus wrote: »

This is it. This is effectively what Dr Glynn was saying and people were going mad.

No, this disease isn't Ebola, but it's also not "just a little flu" for those under 65. While the odds of any individual being very sick are relatively small, once you scale up to population levels, 100,000 active infections results in a lot of very sick people even when the vulnerable are protected.

100% on this. I honestly can’t see how this point is lost on some people.

As an aside my father (76) got his call for the vaccine next Thursday, delighted. My mother is only 69 so misses out now but the GP said she’d be mid April. Hopefully the April ramp up sees things really kick off and get a bit of positivity going.

Scuid Mhór · 21-03-2021 05:34PM

ddarcy wrote: »

Got to love the contacts to get the vaccine. Just got a text for one tomorrow, the AZ one. I thought I would be waiting until June to get it. I’m guessing they didn’t have enough in the current groups and moved me up. Now I need to rearrange my whole day tomorrow morning to get it. Should be fun I guess.

What group are you in?

Scuid Mhór · 21-03-2021 05:36PM

seamus wrote: »

I'd say we can expect 900,000 done by the end of the month, if not more. We'll hit the 1m mark in early April and 2m a month later.

Based on those metrics when do you reckon Cohort 7 will start getting vaccinated? Early April?

firemansam4 · 21-03-2021 05:40PM

SheepsClothing wrote: »

I'm sure the vaccinations are having an effect, but young school children only went back to in person schooling last week and secondary hasn't gone back at all yet. It could be that after a few weeks, they'll see a rise in the R number.

Maybe they will. It will be interesting to see if their low trends continue in the comming weeks. Could be a very positive sign that vaccines in the north could be having a very positive effect on numbers.

Maybe im just being hopeful, but if vaccines do ramp up here in the comming month or 2 hopefully we can follow the trend this side of the border.

ACitizenErased · 21-03-2021 05:46PM

arrianalexander wrote: »

Feel free to move mods if inappropriate for this forum

OH got astra vaccine, over a week ago after a few days of feeling quite unwell she improved but her arm remained sore.

It hasn't gone away , it's actually inflamed the area where she got the bcg vaccine.

We are ringing gp tomorrow, just wondering has anyone heard of this , specifically affecting the bcg area

recommend reporting it to the HPRA

bilston · 21-03-2021 05:51PM

firemansam4 wrote: »

We are starting to see a consistant theme of lower case numbers in NI, and certainly fatalities seem a lot lower compared to the republic more recently, and this is taking into account the population difference.

I wonder if this Is evidence that the advanced vaccination program in the north is starting to take much more of an effect now compared to south of the border? or is it that they are just getting a better handle in cases there now?

Seems like the vaccine is having an impact, I think there have been 7 deaths in Northern Ireland in the last 7 days, tragic for those involved but clear signs of progress. We won't really know how much is down to the lockdown and how much is down to the vaccine until restrictions are eased. Case numbers are pretty much steady now, averaging around 150 a day, what we don't know is how many of those contracting the virus have been vaccinated, and if so, how many doses, and how many of them end up in hospital and how many ultimately die.

Lots of questions to be answered but it is hard to believe that the vaccine isn't having a positive impact, and this is likely to become more significant for older folks as they get their second jab.

ddarcy · 21-03-2021 06:01PM

Scuid Mhór wrote: »

What group are you in?

I’m supposed to be 7. But I think since I’ve been diabetic my whole life that moved me up. My HBA1C wouldn’t put me in the at risk group (is nowhere close to it). I’ve heard that exceptions are being made based on longevity as well.

Personally I think they have me down as an exception and if a space opened up or they had extra room, they would put me into the slot. That’s my ongoing theory anyways. I shouldn’t qualify yet based on the current cohorts

is_that_so · 21-03-2021 06:06PM

seamus wrote: »

This is it. This is effectively what Dr Glynn was saying and people were going mad.

No, this disease isn't Ebola, but it's also not "just a little flu" for those under 65. While the odds of any individual being very sick are relatively small, once you scale up to population levels, 100,000 active infections results in a lot of very sick people even when the vulnerable are protected.

I think Glynn et al are allowing themselves to get sucked into policy by soundbyte on this. Not sure how exactly they can remedy it but if the IT poll suggesting people think this is all over when we get the so-called vulnerable done , is true, it'll be a very steep uphill battle.

Deeper Blue · 21-03-2021 06:07PM

Cases appear to have fallen off a cliff in Israel despite them opening up many areas of the economy. Surely bodes well for the vaccines.

josip · 21-03-2021 06:30PM

bilston wrote: »

Seems like the vaccine is having an impact, I think there have been 7 deaths in Northern Ireland in the last 7 days, tragic for those involved but clear signs of progress. We won't really know how much is down to the lockdown and how much is down to the vaccine until restrictions are eased. Case numbers are pretty much steady now, averaging around 150 a day, what we don't know is how many of those contracting the virus have been vaccinated, and if so, how many doses, and how many of them end up in hospital and how many ultimately die.

Do Northern Ireland use the same criteria for reporting deaths as us?
Are those 7 actual deaths in the last week, or 7 reported deaths that could have happened some time in the past?

Dressoutlet · 21-03-2021 06:43PM

josip wrote: »

Do Northern Ireland use the same criteria for reporting deaths as us?
Are those 7 actual deaths in the last week, or 7 reported deaths that could have happened some time in the past?

I would think it's the same as here, with a certain amount of time to register. Considering it takes weeks for even a funeral!

21-03-2021 06:59PM

I know they will be hitting supply constraints soon enough but the UK just recorded 873,500 doses in 24 hours.

If nothing else we will benefit massively once N Ireland is done.

bilston · 21-03-2021 07:25PM

josip wrote: »

Do Northern Ireland use the same criteria for reporting deaths as us?
Are those 7 actual deaths in the last week, or 7 reported deaths that could have happened some time in the past?

The daily data states how many deaths occurred in the reporting period (last 24 hours) and how many occurred outside it. The deaths that were reported Mon-Fri last week had all occurred in the previous 24 hours.

https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/publications/daily-dashboard-updates-covid-19-march-2021

21-03-2021 07:34PM

UK have basically matched our per-capita second dose rate now. Just took them a couple of days of actually doing it. One less totem for people to cling to.

afatbollix · 21-03-2021 07:44PM

I posted only a week ago that it has turned for me and that it won't be long for other people.

Great to see so many people saying they are getting invitations, It's turning folks. Hang in there, We're weeks away from normal, Not years.....

User142 · 21-03-2021 08:00PM

https://twitter.com/NaomiOhReally/status/1373703024426811397

If this does come to pass which seems likely now I wonder how it would impact our vaccine rollout.

is_that_so · 21-03-2021 08:04PM

User142 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/NaomiOhReally/status/1373703024426811397

If this does come to pass which seems likely now I wonder how it would impact our vaccine rollout.

So far there is only one culprit here - AZ and they are really the only likely target. Pfizer are delivering as promised and Moderna more or less what they said.

COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

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