Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IX Read OP For Mod Warnings

Hector Savage · 19-03-2021 11:48AM

RobitTV wrote: »

Shame more people wouldn't tell the government to bog off. It's only been 12 months of goalpost moving and praying for the best.

'Wait and see and pray for the best' is the eternal Irish attitude and approach in life.

HOLD FIRM

ypres5 · 19-03-2021 11:49AM

Hector Savage wrote: »

"Keeping people safe"

You really believe this is going on as long as it is because people are breaking restrictions ?

Copium is a hell of a drug

facehugger99 · 19-03-2021 11:50AM

Graham wrote: »

Speak for yourself.

Most of us are just getting on with it and doing what's necessary to keep people safe and see the economy reopen as quickly as possible.

Unfortunately our efforts are being stymied by the few.

LOL.

Has there been a few malcontents going around the hospitals and nursing homes infecting people?

Anyway, continue with all your "efforts". :rolleyes:

I guess not all heroes wear capes, some of them hide under their beds until the man on the telly tells them it's safe to come back out.

FintanMcluskey · 19-03-2021 11:50AM

Deleted User wrote: »

It'll be a bitter pill to swallow but it's for the greater good.

It is if you consider future cuts to funding to the health service as for the greater good

Chopper Dave · 19-03-2021 11:51AM

Strongly suspect that the 'divisions' reported in Cabinet on the 5km is just a manufactured row so that it will be seen as a big concession to the public when the 5km is increased. That way, we can all be grateful and forget about hairdressers, gyms and construction.

Ronan Glynn's intervention is more cynical though. By publicly putting out a view that certain restrictions stay in place he is making it very difficult for the Govt to recommend something different. If - and it is a very big IF - the EU manages to get a system in place for safe travel this Summer, there is no reason why Ireland would not be part of that as we will have lower overall cases and similar levels of vaccination.

DTownD · 19-03-2021 11:56AM

Posters refering to France [not the entire country though] going back into 'lockdown'.

It pales in comparison to what we have endured here since last October (excluding three weeks in December).

And at least they had the relief of a significant break to see people and enjoy some freedom.

We need a break. We have endured the strictest,longest lockdown in Europe. People are really OK with that? Boggles the mind.... 'scuse the pun.

From the Guardian
"Residents of the 16 departments can go out to walk, bike, exercise and do sport for as long as they like but within a distance of 10km from home. They can protest, attend outside gatherings and go to places of worship and even the hairdressers, as these will remain open."

19-03-2021 11:56AM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

It is if you consider future cuts to funding to the health service as for the greater good

What about increased efficiency in the HSE rather than cuts Fintan? Everything isn't binary. You can't view the world in monochrome. There have been numerous changes in the HSE in the last year that should be a massive cost saving long term.

iamwhoiam · 19-03-2021 11:57AM

Chopper Dave wrote: »

Strongly suspect that the 'divisions' reported in Cabinet on the 5km is just a manufactured row so that it will be seen as a big concession to the public when the 5km is increased. That way, we can all be grateful and forget about hairdressers, gyms and construction.

.

I strongly suspect the same . Its mind games so we will be delighted with little crumbs and deflects from other tastier cake

niallo27 · 19-03-2021 11:57AM

Graham wrote: »

Speak for yourself.

Most of us are just getting on with it and doing what's necessary to keep people safe and see the economy reopen as quickly as possible.

Unfortunately our efforts are being stymied by the few.

Thanks for keeping me safe, I'm forever in your debt.

TonyMaloney · 19-03-2021 11:59AM

niallo27 wrote: »

Number 2 it is. The numbers that will die from it now should be greatly reduced.

As ever, Niall, it all depends on the size of the outbreak.

If we recorded a very large outbreak of say two million cases over a period of months, then on current numbers we'd see 5.8% of them hospitalised. 116,000 people.
That 5.8% number is our year-to-date value and doesn't really include any vaccine effect, so to be extremely fair to your argument I'm going to use the latest 14-day report and completely remove all hospitalisations for everyone under 65.

*does maths*

So, the bad news is that 61.4% of the hospitalisations would still occur with everyone over 65 vaccinated. 71,224 people would be hospitalised in this scenario.

Now that isn't the worst case scenario, but it's a pretty terrible one.
Lets say the outbreak was a quarter of the size - 500,000 people.
Well that still 17,806 people under 65 hospitalised in a few months. To date we've had just over 13,000 in total.

Graham · 19-03-2021 11:59AM

Hector Savage wrote: »

"Keeping people safe"

You really believe this is going on as long as it is because people are breaking restrictions ?

You reckon the virus has worked out how to transport itself around the country independently?

FintanMcluskey · 19-03-2021 12:02PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

As ever, Niall, it all depends on the size of the outbreak.

If we recorded a very large outbreak of say two million cases over a period of months, then on current numbers we'd see 5.8% of them hospitalised. 116,000 people.
That 5.8% number is our year-to-date value and doesn't really include any vaccine effect, so to be extremely fair to your argument I'm going to use the latest 14-day report and completely remove all hospitalisations for everyone under 65.

*does maths*

So, the bad news is that 61.4% of the hospitalisations would still occur with everyone over 65 vaccinated. 71,224 people would be hospitalised in this scenario.

Now that isn't the worst case scenario, but it's a pretty terrible one.
Lets say the outbreak was a quarter of the size - 500,000 people.
Well that still 17,806 people under 65 hospitalised in a few months. To date we've had just over 13,000 in total.

This is literally a mash of numbers with no context

I like the bit where you quarter the mash of numbers to imply that 500,000 becoming infected in a short space of time is actually realistic

Gerry Killeen stuff

Graham · 19-03-2021 12:05PM

facehugger99 wrote: »

LOL.

Has there been a few malcontents going around the hospitals and nursing homes infecting people?

Are we pretending that hospitals and nursing homes are the only places the virus is being transmitted now.

That's some alternate reality you've found facehugger

MOH · 19-03-2021 12:06PM

Graham wrote: »

Speak for yourself.

Most of us are just getting on with it and doing what's necessary to keep people safe and see the economy reopen as quickly as possible.

Unfortunately our efforts are being stymied by the few.

Are "most of us"? Or is that just your projection?

Any time I'm out for a walk I see huge numbers of people gathering together in small groups, outside coffee shops, wandering around together with coffees, sitting together in parks.
Not sure how much harm it's doing, but I'm fairly sure all these people are patting themselves on the back for obeying the restrictions, when they're not.
It's far from a few who are breaking restrictions on a regular basis.

Actually, why are coffee shops open? Seems to be a focal point for people gathering and socialising, and they're certainly not essential. Haven't heard Tony ranting on about how the virus loves a nice latte.

retro:electro · 19-03-2021 12:10PM

RGS wrote: »

It the government is split on lifting the 5km limit then there really is no chance any easing of restrictions will be announced on 5 april.

MM interview to the Mirror can now be taken as the correct timeline when he stated mid may, even though he tried to walk it back.

The cabinet are really spineless.

Must be great to sit on close to €200K salary and just rubber stamp NPHETS recommendation.

If they are this anal about the 5k we haven’t a hope when it comes to opening up.

gozunda · 19-03-2021 12:11PM

facehugger99 wrote: »

Maybe that's a reason we shouldn't be adding to it FFS!

Debt at the end of 2019 was €175Bn
Debt at the end of Feb 2020 was €225Bn

You can shrug your shoulders at a 30% increase in national debt in a year but anyone with a modicum of intelligence will be deeply concerned.

We're now approaching April and still have construction and non-essential retail closed - it's fcuking criminal what's being done to this country by a bunch of highly paid politicians and bureaucrats who are throwing around our money like confetti to avoid making a decision.

What's with the " FFS"?

But more importantly where was it said that it was?

The point being that the national debt is certainly not due to covid as was implied.

And no I've not "shrugged my shoulders".

No nation on this planet has escaped the need for extraordinary spending on managing the current pandemic.

Were now approaching April and we're moving towards getting a critical mass of people vaccinated and no that hasn't been perfect- and yes we're trying to keep numbers down. That shouldn't need to be explained.

Some good news for you.

Ireland’s economy grew by 3.4% last year despite Covid-19 restrictions on the back of record growth in the export sector or that Ireland’s was the only EU economy to grow last year as multinationals rode out Covid.

Graham · 19-03-2021 12:14PM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

It managed to spontaneously generate in people's homes last autumn so you never know.

Sadly I think there are some that genuinely believe that. They see no connection at all between increased mobility and increasing cases.

Graham · 19-03-2021 12:15PM

MOH wrote: »

Any time I'm out for a walk I see huge numbers of people gathering together in small groups, outside coffee shops, wandering around together with coffees, sitting together in parks.
Not sure how much harm it's doing, but I'm fairly sure all these people are patting themselves on the back for obeying the restrictions, when they're not.
It's far from a few who are breaking restrictions on a regular basis.

Any time I'm out, most people appear to be adhering to the guidelines.

YMMV

hamburgham · 19-03-2021 12:16PM

Graham wrote: »

Speak for yourself.

Most of us are just getting on with it and doing what's necessary to keep people safe and see the economy reopen as quickly as possible.

Unfortunately our efforts are being stymied by the few.

The word 'safe' no longer means what we used understand it to mean.

I wonder if it's 'safe' for me to go out and cross the road considering that every year people are injured and killed by careless drivers.

gozunda · 19-03-2021 12:18PM

RobitTV wrote: »

Dr Ronan Glynn says that advice will be issued in the coming fortnight for people who have received their Covid vaccine:

'It will be conservative as vaccines aren't 100% protective on an individual level'[
Ohmyfuc****god:P
They are playing with us now.

So you think it's all a big conspiracy?

Seriously though only those living under stones don't know that "vaccines aren't 100% protective on an individual level" It's been well explained many times.

Pitch n Putt · 19-03-2021 12:19PM

Posted this on other thread. Probably more appropriate here:

Can someone please advise NPHET as I fear the way they are handling Covid they have missed some important information.

Please tell them.

Contraction of covid does not equal instant death ...

This country is handling the whole thing like it’s the Black Death or something similar.

It’s an over cautious over reaction. Yeah harmful to some but not to all. Stay at home for 14 days being the amazing treatment for most who contract it.

Dangerous to elderly and vulnerable groups. We know this for almost a year but instead of trying to protect these categories we go for the option of rolling never ending half baked lockdown.

Revisit the approach long overdue but we just keep ambling along with the same thing over and over that hasn’t worked.

Unbelievable really

19-03-2021 12:19PM

Graham wrote: »

Are we pretending that hospitals and nursing homes are the only places the virus is being transmitted now.

That's some alternate reality you've found facehugger

This thread has just become one bizarre alternate reality

Klonker · 19-03-2021 12:20PM

It will be a disgraceful decision if the government don't decide to reopen construction fully on 5th April. Only country in the world with it closed and we have one of the lowest rates currently in Europe in one of the youngest populations also. Can they introduce antigen tests for the larger construction sites, say take one once or twice a week and if test positive go for a PCR test and don't go back to work until you receive a negative test or 10 days later than testing date if a positive test.

This is my biggest issue with NIAC and NPHET, they wont reccomend using risk mitigation strategies like antigen tests because they are not 100%, it's so stupid. Their argument is antigen tests aren't 100% so instead of letting a few cases slip through we'd rather keep hundreds of thousands out of work as that will keep our cases a little lower. There's no nuance to anything,theres no balancing of health and social lives/economy. It's just lockdown, lockdown, lockdown. I actually don't think even if we had 50 cases a day right now that they wouldn't reccomend any material easing of restrictions, there aim is stay in lockdown with very slight easing if at all until almost everyone is vaccinated. Then they will think about easing slowly but not before that. The numbers don't even matter anymore.

And some of the restrictions are so ridiculous. The worst in my opinion is not letting people meet outside. The rule is you can go outside for exercise only and within 5km apart from essential activities like work and food shopping. So that means I can't have a conversation to any person in person that I know that does not live in my household. I mean meeting my friend in the park and having a coffee isn't exercise is it, even if we walk for some of it? I'd be using the walking as a cover for the exercise but my intention would be talk to my friend so by the rules that isn't allowed, aren't I right? Also only 2 households can do this so 3 friends can't meet up for a walk together, how ridiculous is that? People will say that loads are meeting up outside anyway and you're right they are thankfully, but they shouldn't have to break the law to do so because that's what they are doing if 3 people meet up for a walk together from 3 households. Give us livable restrictions that wont be expected to break.

I'm ranting here but just annoyed by the stupidity of it all.

TonyMaloney · 19-03-2021 12:21PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

This is literally a mash of numbers with no context

I like the bit where you quarter the mash of numbers to imply that 500,000 becoming infected in a short space of time is actually realistic

Gerry Killeen stuff

Again, why don't you people have a look at a bloody chart before attempting to insult someone?

We had over 100,000 cases in January. If we hadn't taken significant action, the rate of growth would have continued, February would have seen a number significantly higher than 100,000 and March would have been just abysmal.

500,000 in a matter of months is very doable in a population of our size. See the Czech Republic for more details.

RobitTV · 19-03-2021 12:23PM

gozunda wrote: »

So you think it's all a big conspiracy?

Seriously though only those living under stones don't know that "vaccines aren't 100% protective on an individual level" It's been well explained many times.

You still don't have me on ignore? fair enough. Continue to ignore what the moderator suggested.

TonyMaloney · 19-03-2021 12:23PM

hamburgham wrote: »

The word 'safe' no longer means what we used understand it to mean.

I wonder if it's 'safe' for me to go out and cross the road considering that every year people are injured and killed by careless drivers.

Only if you follow the guidelines

gozunda · 19-03-2021 12:26PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

We have become so desensitised to what a billion €‘S actually represents Sure we’ve only lost €17,000,000,000 on tourism alone
It’s pittance Paddy, sure we saved all those lives didn’t weWe will all realise what those figures mean rather quickly when the austerity arrives

Again hyperbole and stating what wasn't said - doesn't help the old covid denial thing tbf.

timmyntc · 19-03-2021 12:31PM

gozunda wrote: »

Ireland’s economy grew by 3.4% last year despite Covid-19 restrictions on the back of record growth in the export sector or that Ireland’s was the only EU economy to grow last year as multinationals rode out Covid.

Multinationals based in Ireland for tax purposes, yes they did very well.
But the bulk of our tax take and jobs do not come from multinationals, they come from construction, non-essential retail, and hospitality. Industries which have been decimated by lockdown and many of which simply will not reopen.

Instead of GDP economists look at GNI* for Ireland - because GDP includes company assets moved here for tax purposes and a whole lot of other stuff that has no bearing on our economy.

mikekerry · 19-03-2021 12:33PM

Klonker wrote: »

It will be a disgraceful decision if the government don't decide to reopen construction fully on 5th April. Only country in the world with it closed and we have one of the lowest rates currently in Europe in one of the youngest populations also. Can they introduce antigen tests for the larger construction sites, say take one once or twice a week and if test positive go for a PCR test and don't go back to work until you receive a negative test or 10 days later than testing date if a positive test.

This is my biggest issue with NIAC and NPHET, they wont reccomend using risk mitigation strategies like antigen tests because they are not 100%, it's so stupid. Their argument is antigen tests aren't 100% so instead of letting a few cases slip through we'd rather keep hundreds of thousands out of work as that will keep our cases a little lower. There's no nuance to anything,theres no balancing of health and social lives/economy. It's just lockdown, lockdown, lockdown. I actually don't think even if we had 50 cases a day right now that they wouldn't reccomend any material easing of restrictions, there aim is stay in lockdown with very slight easing if at all until almost everyone is vaccinated. Then they will think about easing slowly but not before that. The numbers don't even matter anymore.

And some of the restrictions are so ridiculous. The worst in my opinion is not letting people meet outside. The rule is you can go outside for exercise only and within 5km apart from essential activities like work and food shopping. So that means I can't have a conversation to any person in person that I know that does not live in my household. I mean meeting my friend in the park and having a coffee isn't exercise is it, even if we walk for some of it? I'd be using the walking as a cover for the exercise but my intention would be talk to my friend so by the rules that isn't allowed, aren't I right? Also only 2 households can do this so 3 friends can't meet up for a walk together, how ridiculous is that? People will say that loads are meeting up outside anyway and you're right they are thankfully, but they shouldn't have to break the law to do so because that's what they are doing if 3 people meet up for a walk together from 3 households. Give us livable restrictions that wont be expected to break.

I'm ranting here but just annoyed by the stupidity of it all.

and even by the time most people are vaccinated the first batch of people that got vaccinated will be due a booster and we will be coming into flu season.
We are on the hamster wheel of horrors with this shower at the controls.

19-03-2021 12:34PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Again, why don't you people have a look at a bloody chart before attempting to insult someone?

We had over 100,000 cases in January. If we hadn't taken significant action, the rate of growth would have continued, February would have seen a number significantly higher than 100,000 and March would have been just abysmal.

500,000 in a matter of months is very doable in a population of our size. See the Czech Republic for more details.

1.4million confirmed cases in only 6 months. 10% of the population. 1.67% of those died. No slow down in the numbers of cases indicating they are nowhere close to population immunity

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IX *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IX Read OP For Mod Warnings