Random EV thoughts.....

16-03-2021 02:21PM

cruisey1987 wrote: »

VW is looking to build 18,000 150kW+ chargers throughout Europe by partnering with local energy companies (BP, Iberdola & Enel were mentioned). They're also keeping their stake in Ionity

If you have a good enough network you don't need big batteries even if you are giving the Customers a few thousand units of free high speed charging for a the first few years.
VAG would much prefer to be selling cars with 2000 euro less of batteries in them and getting Customers to pay 2000 or 3000 euro in near pure profit for slightly larger alloys and metallic paint and colour coded vents or all of that other stuff that is onboard but not enabled unless you pay a price.
A 45kwh battery that can take 80 or 100kw for a good proportion of the charge cycle can travel huge distances. If you can get the cars charging fast and automatically registered when they hook up to the charger you can increase the utilisation on the charge network and avoid having to install so much infrastructure.

ELM327 · 16-03-2021 03:09PM

VW/VAG seem to have a good charging curve too, looking at the likes of etron, taycan etc (I have not seen ID 3/4 charge curve yet)

the_amazing_raisin · 16-03-2021 03:58PM

Deleted User wrote: »

If you have a good enough network you don't need big batteries even if you are giving the Customers a few thousand units of free high speed charging for a the first few years.
VAG would much prefer to be selling cars with 2000 euro less of batteries in them and getting Customers to pay 2000 or 3000 euro in near pure profit for slightly larger alloys and metallic paint and colour coded vents or all of that other stuff that is onboard but not enabled unless you pay a price.
A 45kwh battery that can take 80 or 100kw for a good proportion of the charge cycle can travel huge distances. If you can get the cars charging fast and automatically registered when they hook up to the charger you can increase the utilisation on the charge network and avoid having to install so much infrastructure.

Spot on! It's also a great selling point for EVs that have a good charging network to back them up (Tesla)

VW would likely be able to sell more cars if they can say to potential customers that there'll be no problems finding a charger

They may also be able to generate a decent income out of the charging network in time

the_amazing_raisin · 16-03-2021 04:04PM

ELM327 wrote: »

VW/VAG seem to have a good charging curve too, looking at the likes of etron, taycan etc (I have not seen ID 3/4 charge curve yet)

The ID cars aren't as good as the E-Tron, but they don't have the same size buffer in the battery

They're pretty good if you can get the battery nearly empty and warm, they generally seem to keep full power up to 30% and will still take 50kW at 80%

The main bonus is that when OTA updates are rolled out then VW can change the charging curve at will same as Tesla. It's likely they're being conservative at the moment until they get an idea of the battery degredation

I imageine the budget model ID cars using LFP cells will have a somewhat slower curve. But if they can make an electric Polo with ~45kWh and for under €20k I reckon they'll have people queueing up to buy one

16-03-2021 04:09PM

cruisey1987 wrote: »

Spot on! It's also a great selling point for EVs that have a good charging network to back them up (Tesla)

VW would likely be able to sell more cars if they can say to potential customers that there'll be no problems finding a charger

They may also be able to generate a decent income out of the charging network in time

I don't think they'll ever make large profits out of charger network. People will buy the right size of battery that allows them to satisfy 95 to 99% of their charging needs at home and then just need the safety blanket of being able to add 150km of range in 15 minutes on exceptional long journeys.
If that is the mentality which becomes prevalent in consumers then very little will be earned from the charging network and the Manufacturer will just try to push fast chargers so they need to have maybe 4 pieces of hardware at a motorway service station instead of 8.

I believe VW ID3 costing more for 100kw charging instead of 50kw is counter-productive to their best interests. There is talk of mid year firmware upgrades which will push up charging speeds from 50kw/100kw to more e.g. 65/120kw.

the_amazing_raisin · 16-03-2021 04:26PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I don't think they'll ever make large profits out of charger network. People will buy the right size of battery that allows them to satisfy 95 to 99% of their charging needs at home and then just need the safety blanket of being able to add 150km of range in 15 minutes on exceptional long journeys.
If that is the mentality which becomes prevalent in consumers then very little will be earned from the charging network and the Manufacturer will just try to push fast chargers so they need to have maybe 4 pieces of hardware at a motorway service station instead of 8.

I believe VW ID3 costing more for 100kw charging instead of 50kw is counter-productive to their best interests. There is talk of mid year firmware upgrades which will push up charging speeds from 50kw/100kw to more e.g. 65/120kw.

If you look at some of Bjorn Nyland's videos from last summer, all the fast charging sites in Norway were jammed up with EVs. I'd say they made a bit of profit off the chargers then

But yes, it's probably not realistic to make money all year round with fast chargers.

However, they do have one great advantage which is that someone is stuck there for around 15-20 mins (going by VW's projected charging times) and will probably want a coffee and a nice pastry

I imagine once EVs get to the point where there's a fairly constant stream of cars charging, then charging companies will start demanding money from site owners to build charging stops there

If you look at the Gridserve site in the UK with 30x fast chargers, I imagine they're making most of their money from renting out retail space to Costa and WH Smith and the charging barely pays for itself

ELM327 · 16-03-2021 04:28PM

cruisey1987 wrote: »

If you look at some of Bjorn Nyland's videos from last summer, all the fast charging sites in Norway were jammed up with EVs. I'd say they made a bit of profit off the chargers then

But yes, it's probably not realistic to make money all year round with fast chargers.

However, they do have one great advantage which is that someone is stuck there for around 15-20 mins (going by VW's projected charging times) and will probably want a coffee and a nice pastry

I imagine once EVs get to the point where there's a fairly constant stream of cars charging, then charging companies will start demanding money from site owners to build charging stops there

If you look at the Gridserve site in the UK with 30x fast chargers, I imagine they're making most of their money from renting out retail space to Costa and WH Smith and the charging barely pays for itself

Dwell time is too long compared to the fossil fuel customer who pays 1-2cpl in margin, and buys a coffee and muffin, in 5 mins.

Gridserve is powered largely by solar so it's "free". Unless lots of people plug in. They make more money on the rental of unit space for sure.

the_amazing_raisin · 16-03-2021 04:47PM

ELM327 wrote: »

Dwell time is too long compared to the fossil fuel customer who pays 1-2cpl in margin, and buys a coffee and muffin, in 5 mins.

You're obviously a bit quicker than me, I don't think I'd get out of a service station in under 10 mins and that's with time to fill the car, get coffee and donut, and pay

And if you've kids and the missus needing food and bathroom breaks, you'd be doing well to get away in under 30 mins

eagerv · 16-03-2021 05:08PM

The other day I had barely time for a Pee, Coffee and a few quick calls. Being a man I don't do multitasking

. If the charging was much quicker something would have to be omitted..

And if it wasn't free (atm) I would have only stayed half the time, enough to get home..

the_amazing_raisin · 16-03-2021 05:36PM

eagerv wrote: »

The other day I had barely time for a Pee, Coffee and a few quick calls. Being a man I don't do multitasking . If the charging was much quicker something would have to be omitted..

And if it wasn't free (atm) I would have only stayed half the time, enough to get home..

It's interesting to note that you can walk away from a charger, but not from a petrol pump, so there's a couple of mins lost there

And those pay-at-pump things easily lose 5 mins from trying to get the payment to go through :rolleyes:

The Black Oil · 17-03-2021 10:00PM

Janey. Bjorn is pretty wiped with Covid.

Orebro · 18-03-2021 10:13AM

UK Government to target grants at more affordable models:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/plug-in-car-van-and-truck-grant-to-be-targeted-at-more-affordable-models-to-allow-more-people-to-make-the-switch

innrain · 18-03-2021 10:53AM

Orebro wrote: »

UK Government to target grants at more affordable models:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/plug-in-car-van-and-truck-grant-to-be-targeted-at-more-affordable-models-to-allow-more-people-to-make-the-switch

I think it is good as it will push manufacturers to limbo the threshold. As more and more people jump on the wagon instead of removing the subsidy completely you play hard to get.

However, " including spacious family cars, such as the Hyundai Kona 39kWh" an American reading this will choke with laughter and discredits the article for me.

ELM327 · 18-03-2021 10:58AM

innrain wrote: »

I think it is good as it will push manufacturers to limbo the threshold. As more and more people jump on the wagon instead of removing the subsidy completely you play hard to get.

However, " including spacious family cars, such as the Hyundai Kona 39kWh" an American reading this will choke with laughter and discredits the article for me.

Don't even need to be an american to laugh at that. You'd have to chop your kids legs off to use the back seats!

markpb · 18-03-2021 10:58AM

innrain wrote: »

However, " including spacious family cars, such as the Hyundai Kona 39kWh" an American reading this will choke with laughter and discredits the article for me.

Peoples expectations are different in different places. I'm sure many European people would choke with laughter at the idea of their houses blowing over in a stiff breeze but that's perfectly acceptable in large parts of America. It doesn't discredit anything.

innrain · 18-03-2021 11:03AM

I drive a Kona. I got my driving license on a Daewoo Matiz, then owned a Fiat Punto. But I will not call Kona large family car.

the_amazing_raisin · 18-03-2021 11:42AM

innrain wrote: »

I think it is good as it will push manufacturers to limbo the threshold. As more and more people jump on the wagon instead of removing the subsidy completely you play hard to get.

However, " including spacious family cars, such as the Hyundai Kona 39kWh" an American reading this will choke with laughter and discredits the article for me.

I'm definitely for focusing the subsidies on lower priced cars to force manufactuers to focus on that segment, but it seems that £35k might be too low given the levels of adoption in the UK at the moment

Am I right in saying they also cut £500 from the grant, I'm fairly sure it used to be £3000?

Hopefully the Irish government doesn't get any ideas about cutting the SEAI grant

ELM327 · 18-03-2021 12:00PM

cruisey1987 wrote: »

You're obviously a bit quicker than me, I don't think I'd get out of a service station in under 10 mins and that's with time to fill the car, get coffee and donut, and pay

And if you've kids and the missus needing food and bathroom breaks, you'd be doing well to get away in under 30 mins

Theres an argument for this, but you absolutely could fill up and leave in 5 mins.

eagerv wrote: »

The other day I had barely time for a Pee, Coffee and a few quick calls. Being a man I don't do multitasking . If the charging was much quicker something would have to be omitted..

And if it wasn't free (atm) I would have only stayed half the time, enough to get home..

This is a good point, along with the kids + pee stops etc above.
We're at an interesting point where the EVs charge too fast to be slow enough to do other things (eg if I have a meeting to join, it's 30 minutes and the car is done before the meeting ends), and too slow to be fast enough to consider it "5 mins" mentally (even if it's closer to 10).

the_amazing_raisin · 18-03-2021 01:07PM

The Black Oil wrote: »

Janey. Bjorn is pretty wiped with Covid.

Just watched his update yesterday, yeah he seems like a pretty unhappy camper

The low energy and generally being unable to do anything is my big worry rather than being hospitalised. With 2 small kids to look after it'd be a bit of a nightmare

the_amazing_raisin · 18-03-2021 02:18PM

Looks like VW's new standardised battery cell is going to throw LG and SKI firmly under the bus

https://insideevs.com/news/495028/volkswagen-surprised-suppliers-unified-cell/

The analysis suggests that the legal dispute between the two companies hampering battery supplies in the US didn't go down well with VW

Personally I think it's slightly overblown, VW's power day seemed to focus mainly on Europe so there's still the US and Asian markets to provide for

Also VW is planning to build it's batteries in partnership with other companies, which could include LG or SKI

However, there's likely a fair bit of factory capacity built up to satisfy VW's existing orders which will now be shopping around for new customers

I imagine they'll be fine finding new customers, it's not like battery demand is going to go down anytime soon

18-03-2021 02:33PM

cruisey1987 wrote: »

Personally I think it's slightly overblown, VW's power day seemed to focus mainly on Europe so there's still the US and Asian markets to provide for

Their Chinese partner's solution to stopping charge spots being ICE'd looked good.
Electrify America recognising Mustang Mach-e once you connect the cable without having to faff around for an RFID card or mobile App is interesting too and firmware updates better bring that to ID.4 and Ionity.

Those guys speculating in the Investment sub-forums should note that the future for the majority of the world is Iron batteries with practically no precious metals and some of the content which they consider "scarce" isn't really all that scarce.

RandomViewer · 18-03-2021 02:39PM

innrain wrote: »

I drive a Kona. I got my driving license on a Daewoo Matiz, then owned a Fiat Punto. But I will not call Kona large family car.

Other than height its the size of a Corsa,

the_amazing_raisin · 18-03-2021 03:00PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Their Chinese partner's solution to stopping charge spots being ICE'd looked good.

I missed that bit, what was their plan?

Electrify America recognising Mustang Mach-e once you connect the cable without having to faff around for an RFID card or mobile App is interesting too and firmware updates better bring that to ID.4 and Ionity.

Yeah this is where charging needs to be in the next few years, although I wonder if it'll really work out better in the ecosystem of lots of different charging providers and needing to sign up to different plans

Those guys speculating in the Investment sub-forums should note that the future for the majority of the world is Iron batteries with practically no precious metals and some of the content which they consider "scarce" isn't really all that scarce.

Yeah LiFePo cells get a lot of abuse but I personally think they're brilliant. Cheap, robust, no fire risks, easy to handle, perfect for many applications including stationary batteries and budget EVs

Yes they're not the best performance for EVs, but again the vast majority of people who would buy something like a VW Polo don't travel long distance and don't need huge battery capacity or ultra fast charging

18-03-2021 03:04PM

cruisey1987 wrote: »

I missed that bit, what was their plan?

pre-book through app and small barrier on a pole opens for your car as it arrives.
with 30% ice'd in China it appears to be needed and between ICE'd points and broken points the likelyhood of charging successfully was about 30%. That must be infuriating for EV drivers in China.

the_amazing_raisin · 18-03-2021 03:34PM

Deleted User wrote: »

pre-book through app and small barrier on a pole opens for your car as it arrives.
with 30% ice'd in China it appears to be needed and between ICE'd points and broken points the likelyhood of charging successfully was about 30%. That must be infuriating for EV drivers in China.

It's a nice plan, maybe charge a booking fee which you credit against charging to stop people booking the charger and then not using it

I remember hearing a lot of car parks in China had installed chargers but not wired them since it was either required under building regs or they could avail of a grant or something

18-03-2021 03:42PM

cruisey1987 wrote: »

It's a nice plan, maybe charge a booking fee which you credit against charging to stop people booking the charger and then not using it

...or deduct good citizen points for those who decide to ICE charging points.

Banana Republic 1 · 18-03-2021 03:48PM

Is anyone here waiting to see if solid state batteries become a thing.

There a few YouTube clips on them this is just one that I haven’t watched but it bring you to other vids.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=42&v=x8FEyaZxqAU&feature=emb_title

18-03-2021 03:59PM

Banana Republic 1 wrote: »

Is anyone here waiting to see if solid state batteries become a thing.

There a few YouTube clips on them this is just one that I haven’t watched but it bring you to other vids.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=42&v=x8FEyaZxqAU&feature=emb_title

No one credible appears to be making promises for commercialisation for the next 5 to 7 years. If your current car can last that long then feel free to postpone your purchasing decision.
fi they are commercialised they will be adopted even if it means competitors have to pay large royalties to patent holders because the benefits of solid state are just too big to ignore.

the_amazing_raisin · 18-03-2021 04:01PM

Banana Republic 1 wrote: »

Is anyone here waiting to see if solid state batteries become a thing.

There a few YouTube clips on them this is just one that I haven’t watched but it bring you to other vids.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=42&v=x8FEyaZxqAU&feature=emb_title

So they're already a thing, a company in France is making them for Daimler electric buses

In terms of holding out for them, it's best to remember that even when EVs powered by solid state batteries come out, they'll likely be confined to the high end vehicles for several years if not decades

As well as the expense required to build up the manufacturing capacity to build new battery types, it will also put a lot of downward price pressure on "old" liquid electrolyte battery makers which is now seen as obsolete

So the current batteries will be around and still being manufactured for a long time yet IMO

ELM327 · 19-03-2021 11:22AM

So, "Random EV Thought"
I'd love to fly over to the UK, buy this https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Ford-F-250/193964305830 pickup and put this twizy in the back https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/2012-Renault-Twizy-Urban-Battery-Owned-Full-Service-History/224359104033

Random EV thoughts.....

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