When will it all end?

ypres5 · 13-03-2021 09:26PM

Scotty # wrote: »

Curfews, shorter limits, close more retail, close public amenities. All would bring down the numbers. You don't need to be a genius to figure that out. It's what they've done all over the world and it's worked. That's why we move from level to level.

I'm not suggesting they do any of the above.

what are they going to curfew us from doing? going for a 5k walk? also closing some shops would only increase the crowds going to the ones left open and if they close earlier because of your curfew brainwave then they'll be even more packed but i can tell you really put a lot of thought into it

CalamariFritti · 13-03-2021 09:41PM

A sure sign that someone has no idea what they are talking about is when they use phrases like 'its not that hard to understand' or 'its not rocket science'.

ypres5 · 13-03-2021 09:43PM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

A sure sign that someone has no idea what they are talking about is when they use phrases like 'its not that hard to understand' or 'its not rocket science'.

'you don't need to be a genius to...' is the final one to complete the hat trick

xhomelezz · 13-03-2021 09:58PM

ypres5 wrote: »

what are they going to curfew us from doing? going for a 5k walk? also closing some shops would only increase the crowds going to the ones left open and if they close earlier because of your curfew brainwave then they'll be even more packed but i can tell you really put a lot of thought into it

Well, the basics is to limit social contacts to control the spread..yet some still didn't get it..

PCeeeee · 13-03-2021 10:03PM

xhomelezz wrote: »

Well, the basics is to limit social contacts to control the spread..yet some still didn't get it..

Do you best limit social contacts by limiting the distance people can travel?

Bit cynical · 13-03-2021 10:08PM

I think behind a lot of this is the ideal of zero-covid; the idea that with severe enough restrictions transmission will be reduced to zero and, once achieved, restrictions can be lifted and things can get back to normal.

The problem is, of course, that severe restrictions have no lasting effect. As soon as they are lifted, cases start increasing again, and then you have to reimpose restrictions to keep those cases low. Moreover, during the restrictions people learn to circumvent them resulting in even stricter measures being necessary the second time around. Restrictions create the need for more and heavier restrictions.

This is the problem we're having in Ireland at present. We started off overusing lockdowns and restrictions of various sorts early on (admittedly with huge public support) and now we're stuck with them but with less and less to show for it as time goes on.

Dickie10 · 14-03-2021 12:46AM

so if people dont go forward for testing case numbers go down. people wont get sick in large numbers as a lot of vulnerable are already vaxxed.

Rodin · 14-03-2021 02:03AM

Scotty # wrote: »

Case numbers today give a ballpark figure of hospitalisations in 10 days or so which in turn give an ICU figure a few days later. Not an exact science but they are an indication of what's to come.

The case numbers were more closely linked to hospital/ICU admissions pre-vaccine.

It is too early to know the relationship now when nursing homes and many older people are now vaccinated.

Scotty # · 14-03-2021 09:29AM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

A sure sign that someone has no idea what they are talking about is when they use phrases like 'its not that hard to understand' or 'its not rocket science'.

ypres5 wrote: »

'you don't need to be a genius to...' is the final one to complete the hat trick

Why does your side of the discussion always revert to these pointless attacking posts? I posted facts and opinion. If you disagree then explain why. Attacking me when you hear something you don't want to hear just makes you look childish.

Scotty # · 14-03-2021 09:34AM

ypres5 wrote: »

what are they going to curfew us from doing? going for a 5k walk? also closing some shops would only increase the crowds going to the ones left open and if they close earlier because of your curfew brainwave then they'll be even more packed but i can tell you really put a lot of thought into it

Ireland is one of only 9 countries in Europe where the numbers are coming down (or were, up til this week). In 31 countries the numbers are going up, in some, seriously so.

Our lockdowns have worked. This one has now stopped working mainly due to complacency IMO. If we are to get out of lockdown any time in the next 12 months then we need to seriously get our numbers down further. How do you suggest we do that? Vaccinating probably isn't being done fast enough to have a significant impact for the next several months.

14-03-2021 09:43AM

Scotty # wrote: »

Ireland is one of only 9 countries in Europe where the numbers are coming down (or were, up til this week). In 31 countries the numbers are going up, in some, seriously so.

Our lockdowns have worked. This one has now stopped working mainly due to complacency IMO. If we are to get out of lockdown any time in the next 12 months then we need to seriously get our numbers down further. How do you suggest we do that? Vaccinating probably isn't being done fast enough to have a significant impact for the next several months.

I am very pro restrictions to get this down, but there needs to be some thought here. People are fed up, mixed signals etc.. I want to get a stira in my house for example, 1 guy in my house while I am at work, can't do it. I want to get my front drive redone, can't do it. Then I see vans outside loads of houses and construction going on, even saw new foundations going in at the back of a private housing estate. Did I condemn them, no I don't, people need an outlet and I don't see an issue with 1 or 2 guys doing work especially outside. Even if they banned internal work in a house being lived in but allowed external. I haven't got work done obiding the restrictions, I bought my house in Jan last year, had to live nearly in a building site during the first lockdown as everything just stopped, now I would like to get a few more things done and I can't.

I know you are going to reply the restrictions are necessary, I truly believe it was the pubs and socialising settings that caused the spikes in October and December, I don't think construction or basic retail did.

Why don't the shops be given an option that if they open it has to be extended,example being penneys, that should open 24 hours for the first week then only be allowed open if they open from 8am to 9pm every night. Restricting times baffled me, that herded more people in in a shorter time frame, id gladly go do my shopping later and always do with grocery shopping

El_Duderino 09 · 14-03-2021 09:48AM

Scotty # wrote: »

Abysmal numbers this week.

Just 1% drop in the 7-day average from last Saturday to today.

We need to either enforce lockdown more or introduce more restrictions if we are to have any hope of easing restrictions this side of 2022.

Date|7Day Avg.|Change
02/01/2021|1,647|
09/01/2021|6,257|-280%
16/01/2021|4,150|34%
23/01/2021|2,343|44%
30/01/2021|1,303|44%
06/02/2021|1,035|21%
13/02/2021|893|14%
20/02/2021|797|11%
27/02/2021|657|18%
06/03/2021|531|19%
13/03/2021|526|1%

They’ll probably just do exactly what they’re doing and wait for numbers to drop as the weather warms over the next month or two.

People call for personal responsibility but I think numbers would only go up if we relied on personal responsibility.

We’ll have to see what happens with the 7day average over the next few weeks. Presumably it will continue to fall

the kelt · 14-03-2021 09:51AM

Deleted User wrote: »

I am very pro restrictions to get this down, but there needs to be some thought here. People are fed up, mixed signals etc.. I want to get a stira in my house for example, 1 guy in my house while I am at work, can't do it. I want to get my front drive redone, can't do it. Then I see vans outside loads of houses and construction going on, even saw new foundations going in at the back of a private housing estate. Did I condemn them, no I don't, people need an outlet and I don't see an issue with 1 or 2 guys doing work especially outside. Even if they banned internal work in a house being lived in but allowed external. I haven't got work done obiding the restrictions, I bought my house in Jan last year, had to live nearly in a building site during the first lockdown as everything just stopped, now I would like to get a few more things done and I can't.

I know you are going to reply the restrictions are necessary, I truly believe it was the pubs and socialising settings that caused the spikes in October and December, I don't think construction or basic retail did.

Why don't the shops be given an option that if they open it has to be extended,example being penneys, that should open 24 hours for the first week then only be allowed open if they open from 8am to 9pm every night. Restricting times baffled me, that herded more people in in a shorter time frame, id gladly go do my shopping later and always do with grocery shopping

Ye see that makes too much sense for people who’s response to lockdown no longer working is ....... more lockdown!

And secondly that requires thought which a lot of people including those that are running the country aren’t capable of because ye know, emm, lockdown. Followed by inevitable plateau that we have seen before followed by emm, ehhh, lockdown.

It’s almost like lockdown shouldn’t be used as your primary means of controlling the virus. If only we had the WHO is similar actually telling us that for example.

El_Duderino 09 · 14-03-2021 10:03AM

Scotty # wrote: »

Ireland is one of only 9 countries in Europe where the numbers are coming down (or were, up til this week). In 31 countries the numbers are going up, in some, seriously so.

Our lockdowns have worked. This one has now stopped working mainly due to complacency IMO. If we are to get out of lockdown any time in the next 12 months then we need to seriously get our numbers down further. How do you suggest we do that? Vaccinating probably isn't being done fast enough to have a significant impact for the next several months.

The uk variant is having a big effect. The restrictions used last year wouldn’t be as effective this year as the virus is more transmissible now than it was a year ago. But we will surely get out of lockdown during the summer. Restrictions will surely be relaxed in the next couple of months as the weather warms.

As restrictions are loosened, cases will go up. I hope the government is prepared live with higher number of cases per day than last summer. With this variant, it might be very hard to get down to the numbers we had last summer. And as we vaccinate adults throughout the summer, it will give them scope to loosen restrictions. Whether or not we’ll be able to get rid of all restrictions, like social distancing, before winter remains to be seen.

Hopefully things go well during the summer and we can take winter as it comes.

JaCrispy · 14-03-2021 10:07AM

Scotty # wrote: »

Abysmal numbers this week.

Just 1% drop in the 7-day average from last Saturday to today.

We need to either enforce lockdown more or introduce more restrictions if we are to have any hope of easing restrictions this side of 2022.

Date|7Day Avg.|Change
02/01/2021|1,647|
09/01/2021|6,257|-280%
16/01/2021|4,150|34%
23/01/2021|2,343|44%
30/01/2021|1,303|44%
06/02/2021|1,035|21%
13/02/2021|893|14%
20/02/2021|797|11%
27/02/2021|657|18%
06/03/2021|531|19%
13/03/2021|526|1%

Numbers me hole. It's the hospitalizations, icu numbers, deaths etc that are the real numbers. Who cares if a family of 5 all gets infected if they don't have to present at hospital or even go to bed. This obsession with insignificant numbers that has no affect on bigger picture is mind boggling.

El_Duderino 09 · 14-03-2021 10:10AM

JaCrispy wrote: »

Numbers me hole. It's the hospitalizations, icu numbers, deaths etc that are the real numbers. Who cares if a family of 5 all gets infected if they don't have to present at hospital or even go to bed. This obsession with insignificant numbers that has no affect on bigger picture is mind boggling.

The numbers go down: look at the numbers going down, time to reopen!
The numbers stop going down: numbers me hole.

Do we know the hospitalisation and ICU numbers?

JaCrispy · 14-03-2021 10:20AM

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

The numbers go down: look at the numbers going down, time to reopen!
The numbers stop going down: numbers me hole.

Do we know the hospitalisation and ICU numbers?

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/pages/hospitals-icu--testing

But you missed my point completely. I'm not saying open or enforce stricter lockdown, I'm saying that the data presented to the public at 6pm every day should focus on the meaningful figures like hospitalisations, icu figures and deaths. Especially when more people are being vaccinated. Who cares if a vaccinated person gets covid and gets nothing more than a sniffle, what purpose does that serve....other than spreading fear into society.

Scotty # · 14-03-2021 10:50AM

JaCrispy wrote: »

Numbers me hole. It's the hospitalizations, icu numbers, deaths etc that are the real numbers. Who cares if a family of 5 all gets infected if they don't have to present at hospital or even go to bed. This obsession with insignificant numbers that has no affect on bigger picture is mind boggling.

The daily case number trends have a direct correlation on the hospitalisations and ICU numbers coming down the line. They're the clearest indication of what's coming and how they are trending is absolutely relevant.

El_Duderino 09 · 14-03-2021 10:54AM

JaCrispy wrote: »

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/pages/hospitals-icu--testing

But you missed my point completely. I'm not saying open or enforce stricter lockdown, I'm saying that the data presented to the public at 6pm every day should focus on the meaningful figures like hospitalisations, icu figures and deaths. Especially when more people are being vaccinated. Who cares if a vaccinated person gets covid and gets nothing more than a sniffle, what purpose does that serve....other than spreading fear into society.

The public are not good at numbers. What people need is a simple number that goes up=bad, down=good. The case numbers were a good indicator early on. Now it isn’t as useful as it was for the reasons you point out.

Lots of numbers confuse people and they start taking any meanings they want from them. It would be better to change to watching hospitalisation and icu and death numbers rather than just cases. The case number isn’t irrelevant though. It carries useful information

Scotty # · 14-03-2021 10:59AM

Deleted User wrote: »

I know you are going to reply the restrictions are necessary, I truly believe it was the pubs and socialising settings that caused the spikes in October and December, I don't think construction or basic retail did.

No, I've said all along that in my opinion retail, hair, sport, etc that can operate safely should be allowed to do so.

I'm not a fan of restrictions or lockdowns! I just don't have a better solution for now.

RGS · 14-03-2021 11:01AM

Scotty # wrote: »

The daily case number trends have a direct correlation on the hospitalisations and ICU numbers coming down the line. They're the clearest indication of what's coming and how they are trending is absolutely relevant.

That's not necessarily true given the level of vaccination in healthcare settings and the amount of over 85 s vaccinated.

We have been advised healthcare infections are down around 90 per cent.

We appear to be in a different place now that last summer/autumn.

Scotty # · 14-03-2021 11:08AM

RGS wrote: »

That's not necessarily true given the level of vaccination in healthcare settings and the amount of over 85 s vaccinated.

We have been advised healthcare infections are down around 90 per cent.

Yea I would agree with the point you are making. Hopefully as the vaccine is rolled further the gap between cases and acute cases widens.

HansKroenke · 14-03-2021 12:02PM

JaCrispy wrote: »

Numbers me hole. It's the hospitalizations, icu numbers, deaths etc that are the real numbers. Who cares if a family of 5 all gets infected if they don't have to present at hospital or even go to bed. This obsession with insignificant numbers that has no affect on bigger picture is mind boggling.

So important that people don't lose sight of this key point. Case numbers are utterly useless by themselves. Anyone can get covid, some may need to rest up a few days at home in bed, a few may end up in hospital but all that matters is those that do get the treatment they can. It's important to remember this. For those that are terrified of contracting it, just stay at home and wait it out until you can get your vaccine.

seansouth36 · 14-03-2021 12:17PM

JaCrispy wrote: »

Numbers me hole. It's the hospitalizations, icu numbers, deaths etc that are the real numbers. Who cares if a family of 5 all gets infected if they don't have to present at hospital or even go to bed. This obsession with insignificant numbers that has no affect on bigger picture is mind boggling.

While clearly case numbers are not as important as hospitalisations/ICU numbers, there's obviously a link between the two. The more people that have Covid, the more hospitalisations/ICU numbers. That family of 5 might not get it bad, but they may pass it to someone who does and ends up clogging up a hospital bed.

bucketybuck · 14-03-2021 12:32PM

I see NPHET have found their excuse to stretch things out further, Tony will be wetting himself at the chance to suspend the vaccine roll out.

Better go to level 6 with modifications and hold firm for another 2 months.

Kermit.de.frog · 14-03-2021 12:36PM

bucketybuck wrote: »

I see NPHET have found their excuse to stretch things out further, Tony will be wetting himself at the chance to suspend the vaccine roll out.

Better go to level 6 with modifications and hold firm for another 2 months.

Why would they want "to stretch things out further"?

Sharpyshoot · 14-03-2021 12:38PM

bucketybuck wrote: »

I see NPHET have found their excuse to stretch things out further, Tony will be wetting himself at the chance to suspend the vaccine roll out.

Better go to level 6 with modifications and hold firm for another 2 months.

They will cream at this evenings briefing.

El_Duderino 09 · 14-03-2021 12:41PM

bucketybuck wrote: »

I see NPHET have found their excuse to stretch things out further, Tony will be wetting himself at the chance to suspend the vaccine roll out.

Better go to level 6 with modifications and hold firm for another 2 months.

What’s the excuse?

Sharpyshoot · 14-03-2021 12:41PM

Level 5 plus 1 coming down the tracks.

bucketybuck · 14-03-2021 12:56PM

Sharpyshoot wrote: »

They will cream at this evenings briefing.

I can predict RTE's headlines already.

"FEAR FEAR FEAR!!!"

When will it all end?

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