Gameweek 29 Transfer/ FH Thread

skippy15 · 13-03-2021 2:09am #1

Thinking a lot of players be free hitting or trying roll 7/8 players into this week, I'll be FH so excited to have likes of Bale and Auba and Cresswell in my team for a week as an audition for WC

Chesty08 · 13-03-2021 10:05am

Finally shipping Barnes and getting Bale. Will bring me to 6 players (Striujk inj would of been 7)!

Cartman78 · 13-03-2021 11:10am

Robertson out (finally) for Cresswell or Dawson most likely or possibly Brighton cover.

Will leave me with 8....don't think anyone else is worth a hit tbh

Rikand · 13-03-2021 11:17am

I've been building for this gameweek, but injuries are putting pay to all my plans. Have 9 for it at the moment

dasa29 · 13-03-2021 11:48am

Have 8 for it at the moment and 2FTs. injuries are putting pay to all my plans with Traoré and Kane with yellow flags.

CornettoQueen · 13-03-2021 12:41pm

Chesty08 wrote: »

Finally shipping Barnes and getting Bale. Will bring me to 6 players (Striujk inj would of been 7)!

Starting today which is good news.

Chesty08 · 13-03-2021 12:53pm

CornettoQueen wrote: »

Starting today which is good news.

Just seen this. Hopefully holds place next week & I get my 2 points

Klonker · 13-03-2021 1:02pm

Currently have 6 players for next week and 2FT. I'll probably do 3 transfers and use it as a chance to clean up my team a little.

Shedite27 · 13-03-2021 9:30pm

Not plannign any chips, currently have

Martinez (and also Meslier)
Regulion / Aina
Son / Lingard
Bamford / Watkins

2FT's, thinking of bringing in Dallas and Bale to bring it to 9 (including a doubtful Bamford)

Ace2007 · 13-03-2021 9:51pm

Next GW going to be a lottery - so many will only have 6/7 players - but will probably have Son/Kane - and could get the right captain choice and outscore someone will 11 players just as easy.

Currently have 8, with 1 FT. Plan was to get Auba and Bale but will see how this week goes.

Muahahaha · 14-03-2021 12:37am

Had 8 but down to 7 with Bamford injured, I think Kane is alright but if not then its down to 6.

Have 2 FTs and wondering might now be the time to bring in Bale. Dont Spurs also have a DGW at some point soon? Would be good to have all 3 Spurs assets simultaneously for that.

Other thoughts are getting Chelsea keeper/defender in, also waiting to see how Jota does v Wolves on Monday night

IrishLad90 · 14-03-2021 12:42am

4 players Son Kane Fabianski Bamford
Kane and Bam are doubtful

Potential moves i can see
Raphina
Soucek
Bale
Grealish
Auba

The leeds man might be my go to cover
A hit to bring in Bale is not beyond me either

macraignil · 14-03-2021 12:47am

Already used this weeks free transfer to bring in an extra player with a game this week. Cancello out for Lascelles. Lascelles gives me enough in the bank now to bring in KDB next week and have a bit left over to upgrade Holding to someone who plays but might rethink this again. Using the last few free transfers has built me up to potentially ten to play in 29 but now BTraore and Bamford are after picking up knocks and Holding seems out of favour and all are at risk of not playing so probably a bad week coming up in spite of trying to avoid it, but there could be a good number in the same boat.

Scorpion Sting · 14-03-2021 1:06am

Bamford is down as "ruled out" on PremierInjuries.com so that's a damn shame as that's a player less for this skinny GW.

CSF · 14-03-2021 1:24am

Scorpion Sting wrote: »

Bamford is down as "ruled out" on PremierInjuries.com so that's a damn shame as that's a player less for this skinny GW.

Is that reliable or would they be prone to jump the gun based on him coming off alone?

He would have been one of my strikers for sure in my FH team.

Scorpion Sting · 14-03-2021 2:28am

CSF wrote: »

Is that reliable or would they be prone to jump the gun based on him coming off alone?

He would have been one of my strikers for sure in my FH team.

Ben Dinnery works for them so they’re fairly reliable.

Shedite27 · 14-03-2021 9:35am

Scorpion Sting wrote: »

Bamford is down as "ruled out" on PremierInjuries.com so that's a damn shame as that's a player less for this skinny GW.

So many have him it's not much of an issue. In a ormal week if Bamford was out, those with good benches would get an advantage, but in this scenario we're all just down one more player.

qwabercd · 14-03-2021 10:04am

Shedite27 wrote: »

So many have him it's not much of an issue. In a ormal week if Bamford was out, those with good benches would get an advantage, but in this scenario we're all just down one more player.

A lot of people will be using FH though and will be able to replace him, so still quite a disadvantage.

gammygils · 14-03-2021 12:37pm

I have 9 players and 2 FT's But 2 of my squad are Holding and Blankford. So might need to take a hit after all or ...

Irish94 · 14-03-2021 1:03pm

Silly question - should I use my FT today for example to get in a player in I want for future weeks, even though I am using my Free Hit in GW29? I am correct in saying once I use my Free Hit I can't bank my free transfer and I will not have 2 FT's in GW 30 if I don't use my FT this week?

dsmythy · 14-03-2021 1:15pm

Irish94 wrote: »

Silly question - should I use my FT today for example to get in a player in I want for future weeks, even though I am using my Free Hit in GW29? I am correct in saying once I use my Free Hit I can't bank my free transfer and I will not have 2 FT's in GW 30 if I don't use my FT this week?

Your transfer will be reversed when you press Free Hit. Also you will have 1 free transfer for GW30 regardless.

F1ngers · 14-03-2021 1:16pm

Irish94 wrote: »

Silly question - should I use my FT today for example to get in a player in I want for future weeks, even though I am using my Free Hit in GW29? I am correct in saying once I use my Free Hit I can't bank my free transfer and I will not have 2 FT's in GW 30 if I don't use my FT this week?

FH negates transfers.
Playing FH will revert your team you had at start of GW.

https://fantasy.premierleague.com/help/rules

Shedite27 · 14-03-2021 10:18pm

Shedite27 wrote: »

Not plannign any chips, currently have

Martinez (and also Meslier)
Regulion / Aina
Son / Lingard
Bamford / Watkins

2FT's, thinking of bringing in Dallas and Bale to bring it to 9 (including a doubtful Bamford)

Make that 2 doubtfuls now, Son and Bamford

castletownman · 14-03-2021 11:20pm

Is bringing Bale in for Son TOO obvious?

Had earmarked ESR to Lingard, but Son's injury has put paid to that.

Either way I'll have eight players active.

Muahahaha · 15-03-2021 12:52am

castletownman wrote: »

Is bringing Bale in for Son TOO obvious?

Had thought it about it myself earlier but going to wait to see what Sons injury is like. The downside of Bale is that Jose seems to be strictly managing his minutes, he was subbed on 57 minutes today with the score at 1-1. He got 70 minutes v Palace last week. If he starts it seems he will not be on the pitch when the opposition are tired and stretched in that final 10 minutes of the game.

As a Kane owner too Im thinking Sons absence will reduce Kanes chances of points as well, Son getting injured has knock on effects. To add Bale into that mix while Son is missing could be a mistake.

CSF · 15-03-2021 12:58am

I think the prospect of Son being able to play 6 days after coming off with a hamstring injury is close enough to impossible.

If it’s not a serious one he should hopefully be back after the international break.

POKERKING · 15-03-2021 9:38am

CSF wrote: »

I think the prospect of Son being able to play 6 days after coming off with a hamstring injury is close enough to impossible.

If it’s not a serious one he should hopefully be back after the international break.

I agree. I had 11 for this gw after some planning but that includes son and bamford so down to 9. Not ideal and missed our on points in previous week planning for the blank so double annoyed.

I think and i havent checked seriousness of injuries just going on watching the games that bamford has the best chance of being fit next week. I could live with a minus four to get 11 on the pitch.

ThewhiteJesus · 15-03-2021 10:32am

7 playing and will do two transfers to have 9 -4.
sterling and gundog to go i just have to decide who comes in, possibles lingard raphina auba oodegaard

CSF · 15-03-2021 11:20am

POKERKING wrote: »

I agree. I had 11 for this gw after some planning but that includes son and bamford so down to 9. Not ideal and missed our on points in previous week planning for the blank so double annoyed.

I think and i havent checked seriousness of injuries just going on watching the games that bamford has the best chance of being fit next week. I could live with a minus four to get 11 on the pitch.

Yeah Bamford could be fine, it’s hard to know. After planning to 11 and that happening, you defo have more right to feel aggrieved than someone with 5 players who is now down to 3, even though the end result is the same

Fitz* · 15-03-2021 11:42am

Anyone thinking of a Brighton triple up in defence? Maximum risk, maximum reward.

I'm at that stage of the season where I have to take risks and punts anyways. Lot's of my rivals don't have FH or many playing players this week.

CSF · 15-03-2021 11:54am

Fitz* wrote: »

Anyone thinking of a Brighton triple up in defence? Maximum risk, maximum reward.

I'm at that stage of the season where I have to take risks and punts anyways. Lot's of my rivals don't have FH or many playing players this week.

I think I might go Dunk, Veltman, Maupay

Ace2007 · 15-03-2021 12:03pm

Fitz* wrote: »

Anyone thinking of a Brighton triple up in defence? Maximum risk, maximum reward.

I'm at that stage of the season where I have to take risks and punts anyways. Lot's of my rivals don't have FH or many playing players this week.

What's the fascination with Brighton, they have conceded in each of the last 4 games, and Newcastle have scored in 3 of their last 4 games. If anything Fulham are the team in form for CS, but that goes against getting in Dallas/Raphaine and co?

CSF · 15-03-2021 12:15pm

Ace2007 wrote: »

What's the fascination with Brighton, they have conceded in each of the last 4 games, and Newcastle have scored in 3 of their last 4 games. If anything Fulham are the team in form for CS, but that goes against getting in Dallas/Raphaine and co?

Underlying stats. A team who should be doing really well against a team who should be doing really bad.

Fulham have good underlying stats defensively too but they’re up against one of the top 3 most attacking sides in the league so I’ll probably just get Areola and leave it at that

extra gravy · 15-03-2021 12:43pm

Fitz* wrote: »

Anyone thinking of a Brighton triple up in defence? Maximum risk, maximum reward.

I'm at that stage of the season where I have to take risks and punts anyways. Lot's of my rivals don't have FH or many playing players this week.

Yeah I was thinking Sanchez, Veltman and Dunk. Don't think I've ever tripled up on defence before though so I'll probably wimp out and get one of Gross/Trossard instead.

dsmythy · 15-03-2021 1:22pm

CSF wrote: »

Underlying stats. A team who should be doing really well against a team who should be doing really bad.

Fulham have good underlying stats defensively too but they’re up against one of the top 3 most attacking sides in the league so I’ll probably just get Areola and leave it at that

Brighton have had good underlying stats for a while and not translating them is the problem. Their goalkeeper seems to be letting them down.

Starlord_01 · 15-03-2021 2:16pm

Currently have 6 players - do I -4 and go for 8 or use my FT and hope 7 will be enough

CSF · 15-03-2021 2:35pm

dsmythy wrote: »

Brighton have had good underlying stats for a while and not translating them is the problem. Their goalkeeper seems to be letting them down.

Yeah, I’m inclined to back the team who are underperforming good underlying stats over teams who are overperforming bad ones though.

Brighton are a good team who have had awful luck. Sure, not all of it is luck (a lot of the time variance and luck get treated like they’re completely different things), but enough of it is for me to be willing to hope that my 3 guys can get 18+ points on the day.

claw · 15-03-2021 2:35pm

Ace2007 wrote: »

What's the fascination with Brighton, they have conceded in each of the last 4 games, and Newcastle have scored in 3 of their last 4 games. If anything Fulham are the team in form for CS, but that goes against getting in Dallas/Raphaine and co?

I think it's the manner of the goals Brighton let in that I have a problem with. The goals conceded against Palace and West Brom wouldn't inspire me with much confidence. Anyone on a free hit and using it, they are worth a punt since there ain't much choice this week. But I wouldn't necessarily say they are a better bet than Fulham or Newcastle either as a punt. Head wrecking fixtures.

CSF · 15-03-2021 2:38pm

claw wrote: »

I think it's the manner of the goals Brighton let in that I have a problem with. The goals conceded against Palace and West Brom wouldn't inspire me with much confidence. Anyone on a free hit and using it, they are worth a punt since there ain't much choice this week. But I wouldn't necessarily say they are a better bet than Fulham or Newcastle either as a punt. Head wrecking fixtures.

Reasonably good team against absolutely awful team is a good punt for me

claw · 15-03-2021 2:48pm

CSF wrote: »

Reasonably good team against absolutely awful team is a good punt for me

On a free hit, it's worth a punt. Dunk certainly cos he is dangerous from set pieces. They have as much chance of keeping a clean sheet this week as anyone else. But that's about it. Pretty football that ends up going nowhere with a leaky defence at the wrong time. Palace scoring 2 goals playing for a 0-0 a couple of weeks ago pretty much sums it up.

CSF · 15-03-2021 2:58pm

claw wrote: »

On a free hit, it's worth a punt. Dunk certainly cos he is dangerous from set pieces. They have as much chance of keeping a clean sheet this week as anyone else. But that's about it. Pretty football that ends up going nowhere with a leaky defence at the wrong time. Palace scoring 2 goals playing for a 0-0 a couple of weeks ago pretty much sums it up.

It’s not going nowhere though. They’ve created the 8th highest xG and just failed to take chances at a rate that outranks any reasonable variance.

They’re also not a leaky defence. They have the 3rd best xG conceded. Only Chelsea and Man City have given their opponents lesser quality of chances.

The lazy analysis that someone would say is that they just have bad finishers and a bad keeper. That may even be true to some extent, but that doesn’t even come close to covering how far their actual stats have varied from what their underlyings suggest it should be.

We’re not talking minor differences. Their xG goal difference is about 19 goals off what it ‘should’ be.

claw · 15-03-2021 3:16pm

CSF wrote: »

It’s not going nowhere though. They’ve created the 8th highest xG and just failed to take chances at a rate that outranks any reasonable variance.

They’re also not a leaky defence. They have the 3rd best xG conceded. Only Chelsea and Man City have given their opponents lesser quality of chances.

The lazy analysis that someone would say is that they just have bad finishers and a bad keeper. That may even be true to some extent, but that doesn’t even come close to covering how far their actual stats have varied from what their underlyings suggest it should be.

We’re not talking minor differences. Their xG goal difference is about 19 goals off what it ‘should’ be.

League tables are not decided by xG, they are decided by results. That Palace match is a snapshot of Brighton. Lots of "shots" that are going wide or over the bar to pad up stats. 2 sucker punch goals conceded. And more importantly, these goals have been going in over the last few weeks.

If we want to talk about Brighton defenders being a good bet on a free hit (which I agree they are as they are as good an option as anyone this week) is that Newcastle are without arguably their 3 best attacking players in Almiron, Wilson and ASM. And that Brighton beat them 3-0 away earlier in the season.

Newbie20 · 15-03-2021 3:19pm

It’s worth remembering that Fulham don’t play in GW 33. This is really putting me off taking a chance on Lookman etc this week. I already have plenty City and Spurs players that won’t play in GW 33, I certainly don’t need to be increasing that number.

CSF · 15-03-2021 3:21pm

claw wrote: »

League tables are not decided by xG, they are decided by results. That Palace match is a snapshot of Brighton. Lots of "shots" that are going wide or over the bar to pad up stats. 2 sucker punch goals conceded. And more importantly, these goals have been going in over the last few weeks.

If we want to talk about Brighton defenders being a good bet on a free hit (which I agree they are as they are as good an option as anyone this week) is that Newcastle are without arguably their 3 best attacking players in Almiron, Wilson and ASM. And that Brighton beat them 3-0 away earlier in the season.

So what do we do instead, transfer in yesterday’s points? I can’t see a successful FPL strategy that does not focus primarily on the underlyings.

claw · 15-03-2021 3:35pm

CSF wrote: »

So what do we do instead, transfer in yesterday’s points? I can’t see a successful FPL strategy that does not focus primarily on the underlyings.

No, you are ignoring the main point here. Newcastle are poor because they have absolutely nothing up front. More than half their goals have come from the 3 players I mentioned. All 3 are injured.

CSF · 15-03-2021 3:41pm

claw wrote: »

No, you are ignoring the main point here. Newcastle are poor because they have absolutely nothing up front. More than half their goals have come from the 3 players I mentioned. All 3 are injured.

How can I be ignoring the main point? Someone asked why the fascination with Brighton, I explained why. You came back and said that you thought Brighton were a good punt this week but that you wouldn't necessarily say they are better than Fulham or Newcastle as a punt.

I explained to you why I think they're a much better punt (and yes Newcastle being even worse attacking than usual is part of that), which surely is the main point.

Surely the exact reason we spend so much time combing over stats like touches in the box, and looking at heatmaps is because these are the kind of stats which are much more repeatable than goals, which often only happen once if at all a game.

claw · 15-03-2021 4:06pm

CSF wrote: »

How can I be ignoring the main point? Someone asked why the fascination with Brighton, I explained why. You came back and said that you thought Brighton were a good punt this week but that you wouldn't necessarily say they are better than Fulham or Newcastle as a punt.

I explained to you why I think they're a much better punt (and yes Newcastle being even worse attacking than usual is part of that), which surely is the main point.

Surely the exact reason we spend so much time combing over stats like touches in the box, and looking at heatmaps is because these are the kind of stats which are much more repeatable than goals, which often only happen once if at all a game.

The great thing is everyone has a different opinion. I play the game using stats but I also use the eye test. I don't rate them going forward at all. What does the heatmap tell you? When they played Palace the ball was permanently in Palace's half but how many clear cut chances did they create? The same when they played Villa.

Brighton have scored 1 more goal than Newcastle this season. 28 matches played. With Newcastle missing their best attacking players for a fair few matches this season. Averaging pretty much 1 goal a match for both teams.
Must not lose match for both teams.

To be honest I wouldn't be surprised by any result. That goes for the other 3 matches this weekend.

CSF · 15-03-2021 4:13pm

claw wrote: »

When they played Palace the ball was permanently in Palace's half but how many clear cut chances did they create?.

2.59 expected goals worth of chances.

There is a chart in the below which denotes the area and quality of each chance. One of the key things to note is that the vast majority appear to have been chances from inside the box also.

https://understat.com/match/14677

sheroman01 · 15-03-2021 4:35pm

Had 7 players. Now 5, if Son and Bamford are out. Have 2FT's at least. Will try hold on to the 2 injured lads, in case they make an appearance.

Mitchel and Cancelo out possibly.

claw · 15-03-2021 4:36pm

CSF wrote: »

2.59 expected goals worth of chances.

There is a chart in the below which denotes the area and quality of each chance. One of the key things to note is that the vast majority appear to have been chances from inside the box also.

https://understat.com/match/14677

I just don't remember that many good chances Brighton had from that match. Will have to look back on it. The one thing I took from it was how badly they defended both Palace goals. Looking at that site, they had similar stats for Fulham and Villa. You wonder do they panic when they get in and around the box.

NabyLadistheman · 15-03-2021 4:54pm

For those of us not using FH Leeds seem a good option to have 3 players. They play Sheff Utd in GW30 as well

Gameweek 29 Transfer/ FH Thread

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