Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IX Read OP For Mod Warnings

TonyMaloney · 13-03-2021 10:08AM

Excess deaths in Florida suggests their official number is way off.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.docwirenews.com/abstracts/analysis-of-excess-deaths-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-the-state-of-florida-2/amp/

They're also awash with the B117 variant

ceadaoin. · 13-03-2021 10:18AM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Excess deaths in Florida suggests their official number is way off.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.docwirenews.com/abstracts/analysis-of-excess-deaths-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-the-state-of-florida-2/amp/

They're also awash with the B117 variant

Excess deaths aren't just covid though. Overdose deaths are through the roof, alcohol deaths, suicide, all up. Lets not forget the one lockdown that happened there and in most of the US caused mass unemployment without any safety net for a lot of people. That causes poverty which means more deaths, and over the long term

Not just in the US, here is the most recent report from the Canadian health authorities acknowledging that the measures, oh sorry "indirect impacts of the pandemic", are responsible for a lot of excess deaths at this time. No doubt ireland will be similar. The question is, is it worth it?

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/210310/dq210310c-eng.htm

In the early months of the pandemic, the weekly number of excess deaths and deaths caused by COVID-19 were closely aligned and mostly affected older populations, suggesting that COVID-19 itself was driving excess mortality in Canada. However, more recently, the number of excess deaths has been higher than the number of deaths due to COVID-19, and these deaths are affecting younger populations, suggesting that other factors, including possible indirect impacts of the pandemic, are now at play.

However, during the fall of 2020, younger people became more heavily affected by excess deaths, as 35% of these deaths involved individuals under the age of 65, up from 14% in the spring.

The number of deaths was 24% higher than expected for men aged under 45, followed by women aged 45 to 64, who recorded 14% more deaths than expected. By comparison, there were 6% more deaths than expected among those aged 85 and older during the fall period.

As these shifts imply an increase in deaths not directly caused by COVID-19, it is important to note that some deaths may be due to the indirect consequences of the pandemic, which could include increases in mortality due to overdoses. For example, in British Columbia, the Chief Coroner's Office has reported increases in deaths due to overdoses since the start of the pandemic. Similarly, Alberta Health Services reported decreases in both the provision and use of substance use treatment programs as well as increases in opioid-related emergency responses and deaths since the onset of the pandemic. Overdose deaths disproportionately affect younger men. For example, according to a report by Alberta Health, between January 1 and June 30, 2020, 79% of apparent unintentional fentanyl overdoses were among men, with those aged 25 to 39 recording the highest proportions of such deaths.

gozunda · 13-03-2021 10:20AM

Hellrazer wrote: »

Ah Gozunda youre starting to sound like NPHET and RTE with the scaremongering now :D:D

In 1918 the population of the US was only 103 million a third of todays.
They had 675,000 deaths.

That's about 0.78 % of their population died from Spanish Flu.

Today they have 382million

That's ONLY 0.14% of the population have died with covid.If covid had the same death rate as the 1918 flu they`d have 2,979,600 deaths so far.
No where near the death rate of covid.

Ah no. Just a bit of history. You're safe Nphet ain't in the US you know

:pac:

But yes for absolute number of deaths the milestone of the lower estimate for 1918 Flu deaths has already been passed.

And remember like Covid - the 1918 flu occurred over an extended period.

For the US as a whole and for the years 1918-1920 about *28% of the population of 105 million became infected, and 500,000 to 850,000 died (0.48 to 0.81 percent of the population)

As of the beginning of February 2021 it was estimated that approx *21.5 percent of Americans – had contracted COVID-19

Sobering.

ceadaoin. · 13-03-2021 10:29AM

gozunda wrote: »

Ah no. Just a bit of history. You're safe Nphet ain't in the US you know :pac:

But yes for absolute number of deaths the milestone of the lower estimate for 1918 Flu deaths has already been passed.

And remember like Covid - the 1918 flu occurred over an extended period.

For the US as a whole and for the years 1918-1920 about 28% of the population of 105 million became infected, and 500,000 to 850,000 died (0.48 to 0.81 percent of the population)

Sobering.

A lot more than 28% of the US population have been infected with covid at this stage. And 13% have been fully vaccinated. Herd immunity incoming .

walus · 13-03-2021 10:35AM

suicide_circus wrote: »

Sitting on the couch here with the wife on a zoom call with her folks in eastern europe. They cant get their head around whats going on in Ireland at all. They were out shopping for clothes earlier, followed by lunch and a bottle of wine this afternoon in a restaurant (!!) and they will call over to the neighbours tomorrow for a party. All legal. Cases higher than here. No one sh1tting their pants. But then they lived through communism and place value on civil liberties.

Those civil liberties that they now enjoy have been paid for dearly with blood of their ancestors and often political and social struggles of their own. That is why they know that they must value and protect their rights.

gozunda · 13-03-2021 10:36AM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

A lot more than 28% of the US population have been infected with covid at this stage. And 13% have been fully vaccinated. Herd immunity incoming .

The most recent official figure I found indicated that approx 21.5 percent of Americans had contracted COVID-19.

https://www.news-medical.net/amp/news/20210208/New-machine-learning-algorithm-estimates-number-of-COVID-19-cases-in-the-US.aspx

Yeah hopefully vaccination will help a lot.

ShyMets · 13-03-2021 10:41AM

Whatsisname wrote: »

“Supply runs”. ****ing hell. Are we living through the zombie apocalypse now?

Based on the OP's posting history those views come as no surprise.

walus · 13-03-2021 10:43AM

RobitTV wrote: »

Newstalk: Ireland facing construction skills shortage as workers flee COVID closure

Irish builders are leaving the country to find work as the uncertainty over reopening construction continues.

Hundreds of workers have moved to England and continental Europe in recent months, fuelling concerns the country will face a skills shortage when the industry reopens.

At least six British firms are actively recruiting in Ireland for people to go and work in the UK.

The offers can include free flights and accommodation – and some workers can double their wages by taking the plunge.

Newstalk

Yet another reason why property prices will remain too high for the young part of the population that was hoping to finally be able to afford buying houses. The young and middle class are really going to pay for this.

walus · 13-03-2021 10:46AM

hamburgham wrote: »

Why anyone in the private sector continues here is beyond me. World class aviation industry destroyed. Thousands of small businesses all over the country destroyed. These are the people with the intelligence, initiative and energy who the country needs and they’ve been completely fxxxed on.

Because it is easier to trick them than it is to prove they have been tricked.

Hellrazer · 13-03-2021 10:48AM

gozunda wrote: »

The most recent official figure I found indicated that approx 21.5 percent of Americans had contracted COVID-19.

https://www.news-medical.net/amp/news/20210208/New-machine-learning-algorithm-estimates-number-of-COVID-19-cases-in-the-US.aspx

Yeah hopefully vaccination will help a lot.

The estimated figure is around 25-30% for the entire world infected with covid 19

That's is scary.

Over 2 billion infected.

Backstreet Moyes · 13-03-2021 10:49AM

The hosung crisis was the biggest crisis in the country before Covid

Yet we are the only country in the world that closed Construction and who would have thought the people out of work would immigrate to get work

They have set the country back years with closing construction

Just remember when Covid is gone and the housing crisis matters again to remind them of what they did when they look for your vote

I also hope the people who blindly follow the government like sheep remember this when their kids are paying huge amounts of tax and struggling to get a house

ceadaoin. · 13-03-2021 10:51AM

gozunda wrote: »

The most recent official figure I found indicated that approx 21.5 percent of Americans had contracted COVID-19.

https://www.news-medical.net/amp/news/20210208/New-machine-learning-algorithm-estimates-number-of-COVID-19-cases-in-the-US.aspx

Yeah hopefully vaccination will help a lot.

The CDC estimate that only 1 in 4 infections were reported so , 83 million infected in the US

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html

niallo27 · 13-03-2021 10:53AM

Hellrazer wrote: »

The estimated figure is around 25-30% for the entire world infected with covid 19

That's is scary.

Over 2 billion infected.

That would mean a death rate of 0.1%, far from scary really.

JRant · 13-03-2021 10:53AM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Sort the worldometer by deaths per capita and it looks quite different. I mean, of course some of the world's most populous countries have more cases compared to ireland. The US is currently 11th in the world in deaths per capita and no, its nowhere near Spanish flu levels last I heard. Do you have a link?

Three of those top 5 states by case numbers had restrictions btw, some of the most strict. The states with the worst death rates had lockdowns. But locking down works.

What annoys me is the fact that some try to claim that "lockdown saves lives" is a settled science. It's far from that and the constant claim that it's the only way is infuriating.

JRant · 13-03-2021 10:58AM

Nuts102 wrote: »

The hosung crisis was the biggest crisis in the country before Covid

Yet we are the only country in the world that closed Construction and who would have thought the people out of work would immigrate to get work

They have set the country back years with closing construction

Just remember when Covid is gone and the housing crisis matters again to remind them of what they did when they look for your vote

I also hope the people who blindly follow the government like sheep remember this when their kids are paying huge amounts of tax and struggling to get a house

Not only did they shut construction, they also decided now was the time to implement their grand plan of closing direct provision centres and pledging to give everyone in them a house within 4 months of arrival. That's not just being tone deaf to what's happening, it's borderline trolling.

Boggles · 13-03-2021 10:58AM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

A lot more than 28% of the US population have been infected with covid at this stage. And 13% have been fully vaccinated. Herd immunity incoming .

ceadaoin. wrote: »

The CDC estimate that only 1 in 4 infections were reported so , 83 million infected in the US

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html

That puts it at 25.3%.

Where are you getting a lot more than 28%?

Hellrazer · 13-03-2021 11:04AM

niallo27 wrote: »

That would mean a death rate of 0.1%, far from scary really.

Only if they are all confirmed infections.

In reality its closer to 0.035%

Boggles · 13-03-2021 11:13AM

Hellrazer wrote: »

Only if they are all confirmed infections.

In reality its closer to 0.035%

3 times less mortality than the flu?

Well if you are sure.

Open the pubs!

RobitTV · 13-03-2021 11:15AM

Irish Times: State no longer asks passengers if their travel is ‘essential’

The State has stopped collecting data on whether people are travelling into the State for an essential reason since early February, it has emerged, including seeking such information from those travelling from high-risk countries.

Replying to a parliamentary question from the Social Democrats TD, Róisín Shortall, the Department of Health said the passenger locator form was amended and “the declaration on essential travel [is] no longer recorded”.

Irish Times

RobitTV · 13-03-2021 11:18AM

Irish Times: Construction among reopenings at risk if Covid-19 cases keep rising

A sustained rise in Covid case numbers would endanger plans to reopen construction and other parts of society on April 5th, political and public health leaders have said.

The warning comes amid growing concern over rising virus cases, with recent gains at peril following three days where total new cases were about or above 600.

Irish Times

13-03-2021 11:23AM

Those two articles back to back highlight the contradictory stupidity of our leaders. "Come on in all ye infectious new variants, we've got the welcome mat at the ready. Oh dear it appears same variants are pushing higher case numbers, let's shut down the economy for longer and escalate our national debt". The left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing.

Backstreet Moyes · 13-03-2021 11:27AM

JRant wrote: »

Not only did they shut construction, they also decided now was the time to implement their grand plan of closing direct provision centres and pledging to give everyone in them a house within 4 months of arrival. That's not just being tone deaf to what's happening, it's borderline trolling.

Yes and all those immigrants will jump ahead of irish citizens in the queue

What a country we live in

JRant · 13-03-2021 11:34AM

RobitTV wrote: »

Irish Times: Construction among reopenings at risk if Covid-19 cases keep rising

A sustained rise in Covid case numbers would endanger plans to reopen construction and other parts of society on April 5th, political and public health leaders have said.

The warning comes amid growing concern over rising virus cases, with recent gains at peril following three days where total new cases were about or above 600.

Irish Times

There's that muddying of the waters again "political and public health leaders". There are no public health leaders, they are supposed to be advisors.

Hellrazer · 13-03-2021 11:40AM

Boggles wrote: »

3 times less mortality than the flu?

Well if you are sure.

Open the pubs!

The flus has a mortality rate of only 0.01%
650,000 deaths per year on average.

Covid is 3 times more lethal than the flu.

Golfman64 · 13-03-2021 11:46AM

RobitTV wrote: »

Irish Times: Construction among reopenings at risk if Covid-19 cases keep rising

A sustained rise in Covid case numbers would endanger plans to reopen construction and other parts of society on April 5th, political and public health leaders have said.

The warning comes amid growing concern over rising virus cases, with recent gains at peril following three days where total new cases were about or above 600.

Irish Times

I really am starting to think that the time has come for a complete refresh of both NPHET and maybe even the government. We’ve been at this a year and we have no plan, no contingency planning, no nuance and the worst of all worlds. Resources and investment heading to other countries, a massive and growing debt and no attempt whatsoever to balance lives and livelihoods. In the real world NPHET would be refreshed, new minds for new ideas and possibly some changes in government too. What we have done so far has failed and we must act now to change course.

shtpEdthePlum · 13-03-2021 11:54AM

Golfman64 wrote: »

I really am starting to think that the time has come for a complete refresh of both NPHET and maybe even the government. We’ve been at this a year and we have no plan, no contingency planning, no nuance and the worst of all worlds. Resources and investment heading to other countries, a massive and growing debt and no attempt whatsoever to balance lives and livelihoods. In the real world NPHET would be refreshed, new minds for new ideas and possibly some changes in government too. What we have done so far has failed and we must act now to change course.

Behave yourself now or we won't build any more housies for you and you'll only be allowed to go three kilometres.

bluelamp · 13-03-2021 12:09PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Those two articles back to back highlight the contradictory stupidity of our leaders. "Come on in all ye infectious new variants, we've got the welcome mat at the ready. Oh dear it appears same variants are pushing higher case numbers, let's shut down the economy for longer and escalate our national debt". The left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing.

And what can we do to stop variants? Short of closing our borders and quarantining people for the next decade at least, I don't see how they can be avoided.

There's no logic in this anymore - we are being told to get cases lower so we can open up, but as soon as we open up cases will go up again.

Lockdown, cases down, open up, cases up.

A lot of Irish people calling for border controls will change their tune when they decide they want a holiday - and the rules apply to them too, and not just the scary Brazilians who apparently are the cause of all our problems these days :rolleyes:

Time for acceptance... covid is here for the rest of our lives. Accept some risk and move on.

Neagra · 13-03-2021 12:10PM

what happens the irish economy after this is all over.
what happens when the wage subsidies end and the covid pup is replaced by the dole.
what happens when inflation causes prices to rise across europe, no one can deny inflation is on its way. the amercian covid relief fund which is worth 1.9 trillion is enough on its own to cause inflation in Ireland and europe
the only way you can fight inflation is to increase interest rates and stop printing money.
what happens then is governments cannot service its debt so it increases taxes and cuts services.

late 2022 is when i expect the fallout to start.
we will reach a point where the virus is practically gone and the state will be in serious debt and will have to raise taxes and cut services.
we will still have a housing crisis and a sh1t health service.
and then the people will see we were never in this together.

gozunda · 13-03-2021 12:19PM

niallo27 wrote: »

That would mean a death rate of 0.1%, far from scary really.

I guess it's how you look at. The current number of known deaths worldwide from Covid-19 is at over 2.6 million (2653534). That's out of a global population of over 7.8 billion. So an effective death rate of 0.035%

So 2.65 million dead in a single year from Covid-19. That's close to the entire population of Lithuania. Is that scarey?

gozunda · 13-03-2021 12:22PM

bluelamp wrote: »

And what can we do to stop variants? Short of closing our borders and quarantining people for the next decade at least, I don't see how they can be avoided.

There's no logic in this anymore - we are being told to get cases lower so we can open up, but as soon as we open up cases will go up again.

Lockdown, cases down, open up, cases up.

A lot of Irish people calling for border controls will change their tune when they decide they want a holiday - and the rules apply to them too, and not just the scary Brazilians who apparently are the cause of all our problems these days :rolleyes:

Time for acceptance... covid is here for the rest of our lives. Accept some risk and move on.

Or we could simply hold our horses and not throw the baby out with the bathwater and get people vaccinated.

I dunno but it sounds sensible to me anyway ..

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IX *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IX Read OP For Mod Warnings