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Covid 19 Part XXXIII-231,484 ROI(4,610 deaths)116,197 NI (2,107 deaths)(23/03)Read OP

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Comments

  • #5282
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 12,836 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Charles Babbage wrote: »
    If people want a summer like last year then they need to bring the rate down to that we had last year. The people complaining loudest about the lack of holidays etc overlap very substantially with the set of people acting in a way which prevents numbers declining.

    You've completely made that up


  • #5283
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Schools are spreading infections, as we start to see rises again they government will allow more children to return to school next week./


  • #5284
    Sweet.Science
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,063 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    Charles Babbage wrote: »
    If people want a summer like last year then they need to bring the rate down to that we had last year. The people complaining loudest about the lack of holidays etc overlap very substantially with the set of people acting in a way which prevents numbers declining.

    Schools were closed from March up until Summer last year . Opening schools meant we were never going have cases as low as last year . I hope the Government and NPHET knew this and dont use it as a way of punishing the rest of society by keeping us locked down


  • #5285
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,515 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    Nice to see some cop on in action. Pushing out the time interval between the doses is working for the UK. No reason why it won't work for us.

    https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/astrazeneca-vaccine-dose-intervals-to-be-stretched-to-allow-for-more-people-to-receive-first-jab-40188401.html

    Eh, wasn't 12 weeks always the dosing schedule for AZ anyway?


  • #5286
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,080 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    Charles Babbage wrote: »
    If people want a summer like last year then they need to bring the rate down to that we had last year. The people complaining loudest about the lack of holidays etc overlap very substantially with the set of people acting in a way which prevents numbers declining.



    Yes and No


    It would be great to have numbers like last summer but they don't need to be the same seeing as we have people vaccinated this year unlike last


    I'm not sure what exactly more the vast majority of people can do


    Outside of work I haven't seen one person outside my same social bubble since Christmas


    I cannot cut contacts any further


    The vast majority of people are complying with restrictions


    The longer that goes on the further compliance will drop


    we need things to look forward to


    I'm having a holiday this year with my fiance


    I'd prefer to go in Ireland rather than quarantine etc after a foreign holiday but if the government won't ease restrictions for a proper holiday season then I'll head to another country that will


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  • #5287
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,464 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Would love to know in what settings the cases are coming from. GP data isn't showing any increase in activity there and previously thats been the early warning when GPs were seeing more covid activity. That's not the case now however, it all looks pretty steady there


  • #5288
    Jinglejangle69
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,167 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    Sweet.Science wrote: »
    Schools were closed from March up until Summer last year . Opening schools meant we were never going have cases as low as last year . I hope the Government and NPHET knew this and dont use it as a way of punishing the rest of society by keeping us locked down

    We're not really locked down though are we?

    Whole country is moving about.

    Nothing like 12 months ago.


  • #5289
    Golfman64
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 314 ✭✭Golfman64


    cjyid wrote: »
    623 positive swabs, 3.78% positivity on 16,499 tests.
    7 day test positivity is 3.7%.

    Love to know where they're coming from.

    Scho.........no sorry, it’s the runners and their Covid plume...


  • #5290
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,080 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    Kunta Kinte wrote: »
    If? Non essential international travel will be completely off the table before late autumn/early winter at the earliest. No doubt about that.


    Good luck trying to keep a lid on things if we don't have a domestic tourist season


    People will just factor in the cost of the fine into the holiday


  • #5291
    titan18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,054 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    There's definitely an increase somewhere. Whether that's schools, meat factories, student parties (we could be seeing numbers from RAG week parties) or wherever, there has to be something causing it cos everything else is closed.


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  • #5292
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,173 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Would love to know in what settings the cases are coming from. GP data isn't showing any increase in activity there and previously thats been the early warning when GPs were seeing more covid activity. That's not the case now however, it all looks pretty steady there
    GP data won't show close contacts.

    So it's good that GP referrals are still dropping as it suggests the number of spontaneous/unsourced cases continues to drop.

    But any plateau or increase then would suggest people are increasing their number of close contacts.

    Now, maybe they've expanded the testing criteria again; gone back more days or made the definition of "close contact" looser. But if they had done that, they should call it out.


  • #5293
    Jim_Hodge
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,281 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    Good luck trying to keep a lid on things if we don't have a domestic tourist season


    People will just factor in the cost of the fine into the holiday

    Give over. Maybe, just maybe, some people .


  • #5294
    Sweet.Science
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,063 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    Jinglejangle69 wrote: »
    We're not really locked down though are we?

    Whole country is moving about.

    Nothing like 12 months ago.

    You think its just a coincidence that the first plateau slight increase in cases coincided with thousands of kids going back to school ??

    Whole country is't moving about more in the last 2 weeks . There is nowhere to go only outdoors


  • #5295
    Akabusi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,117 ✭✭✭Akabusi


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    Yeah it's very poor from Nolan

    10 weeks is a very long time not to mind 20

    There's was going to be very little easing of restrictions from Easter until mid May however 10 weeks time is the 21st of May so that does tie in with the 23rd of May date in the Irish Times article yesterday

    “One source said the Government would adopt a “minimalist approach” for the next six-week plan, which will last until May 23rd, and would not bow to sectoral interests.”

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/covid-19-key-lockdown-restrictions-set-to-last-until-late-may-1.4506908

    Nice coincidence ... which also correlates with what Martin said in the Dail

    If Nolan has his way with end of July and 20 weeks there is no domestic tourism season which will be disastrous for the economy

    The key to this is accepting a certain number of cases and building the restrictions around these, the current thinking by NPHET seems to be to chase unrealistically low numbers and keep everything locked up until we reach them, however we won't get there as each week that goes by more and more people will start to flout the rules and numbers will plateau.
    I think if we could accept a range of 300 - 500 a day which we are more or less at now, a lot more of society could be opened without driving them mad. Our current numbers show that our hospitals can cope and as more and more of the vunerable get vacinated it can only help.

    Instead of these statements about looking at things in 6 or 10 weeks, a simple roadmap could be done for society like what they have done for schools.
    Next week along with the next set of school children going back, click and collect could be opened. Two weeks later construction opened and county travel. Two weeks later outdoor gatherings. and so on. Over a 10 week period we could have steps leading to outdoor dining and countrywide travel. If we started to see a rise in the numbers outside the range put the next ones on hold and monitor how the hospitals are doing for a week or two. If hospital numbers are steady of still declining then we are okay with maybe living with a slightly higher range and continuing on with the roadmap.
    It would give people hope and maybe help to keep them interested in following the guidelines in place as they would see a way out of this.


  • #5296
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,464 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    seamus wrote: »
    GP data won't show close contacts.

    So it's good that GP referrals are still dropping as it suggests the number of spontaneous/unsourced cases continues to drop.

    But any plateau or increase then would suggest people are increasing their number of close contacts.

    Now, maybe they've expanded the testing criteria again; gone back more days or made the definition of "close contact" looser. But if they had done that, they should call it out.

    Close contact data yesterday suggested no rise though.

    I reference GP though because it if were schools causing an issue its likely to be born out in GP referral.

    We could also be looking at some workplaces here perhaps. Meath and Kildare had a decent number of cases last few days, I'm only speculating here but are meat plants seeing issues again as it was in these counties last time & with mass testing GP data wouldn't be impacted


  • #5297
    marno21
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,694 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    All metrics in the UK continue to drop even though they remain more open than us.

    Perhaps it’s time to communicate a clear plan as to how we get out of this and it provides people with a timeframe as to when they’ll be allowed to do things.

    If I haven’t seen someone since Christmas and Philip Nolan tells uses the phrase “10-20 weeks” on the radio it’s easy to be like “fúck this” and go visit people.

    If I was told I could meet them outdoors after x date and indoors after y date I may be more likely to comply and wait it out

    Communication is practically non existent so it’s little surprising that things are not going the way they’d like it to go.


  • #5298
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    Eh, wasn't 12 weeks always the dosing schedule for AZ anyway?

    Did you read the article?


  • #5299
    Crocodile Booze
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 545 ✭✭✭Crocodile Booze


    It's obvious that cases will rise with schools reopening. That's why they were closed for so long. Anyone who doesn't understand that is delusional.

    Anyway, it's all about the health system which is doing okay, for now.


  • #5300
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,775 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    marno21 wrote: »
    If I haven’t seen someone since Christmas and Philip Nolan tells uses the phrase “10-20 weeks” on the radio it’s easy to be like “fúck this” and go visit people.

    Philip Nolan is totally out of touch with ordinary reality for most people.


  • #5301
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    Jinglejangle69 wrote: »
    We're not really locked down though are we?

    Whole country is moving about.

    Nothing like 12 months ago.

    12 months ago , we knew next to nothing about the virus fear drove the behaviour. Now we know it's not the bubonic plague and whom is most at risk. Although we had a hint at who was most at risk from the scenes from Italy but still f**ked up regarding Nursing Homes . We didn't know when or if we would have a vaccine.


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  • #5302
    fits
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,062 ✭✭✭✭fits


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    Bit disappointing alright


    8 more positive swabs from 141 less tests


    Still no need to panic

    No need to panic but it is disappointing for sure. Looks like the beginnings of a trend. Considering we are in level 5 -this variant is a PITH. I would love to know where the cases are coming from also.


  • #5303
    Russman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,992 ✭✭✭Russman


    Sweet.Science wrote: »
    You think its just a coincidence that the first plateau slight increase in cases coincided with thousands of kids going back to school ??

    Whole country is't moving about more in the last 2 weeks . There is nowhere to go only outdoors

    I'm definitely not suggesting its not the schools, but on the broader point, I do think people are moving about much more. I drop my sister to work (essential worker, living in the same house) and collect her, most days, and she works various shifts and I can definitely notice and see a lot more traffic out and about. I appreciate its only anecdotal and one person's observation but IMO there's definitely a lot more movement than, say a month ago.


  • #5304
    Russman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,992 ✭✭✭Russman


    Akabusi wrote: »
    The key to this is accepting a certain number of cases and building the restrictions around these, the current thinking by NPHET seems to be to chase unrealistically low numbers and keep everything locked up until we reach them, however we won't get there as each week that goes by more and more people will start to flout the rules and numbers will plateau.
    I think if we could accept a range of 300 - 500 a day which we are more or less at now, a lot more of society could be opened without driving them mad. Our current numbers show that our hospitals can cope and as more and more of the vunerable get vacinated it can only help.

    Instead of these statements about looking at things in 6 or 10 weeks, a simple roadmap could be done for society like what they have done for schools.
    Next week along with the next set of school children going back, click and collect could be opened. Two weeks later construction opened and county travel. Two weeks later outdoor gatherings. and so on. Over a 10 week period we could have steps leading to outdoor dining and countrywide travel. If we started to see a rise in the numbers outside the range put the next ones on hold and monitor how the hospitals are doing for a week or two. If hospital numbers are steady of still declining then we are okay with maybe living with a slightly higher range and continuing on with the roadmap.
    It would give people hope and maybe help to keep them interested in following the guidelines in place as they would see a way out of this.

    Is it possible (genuinely wondering) to keep this disease at a certain level though ? Does the nature of it not mean it will always be rising (if things are open) or always declining (with restrictions) ?
    I don't know the answer to that, but I'm not sure there's a level of restrictions/activity that will keep cases at a certain range indefinitely. Even last summer when we were at a really low level, they didn't stay there, they started rising almost immediately, granted very slowly. Hopefully the rate of increase if we got very low might buy enough time for vaccinations to get ahead of the game.


  • #5305
    titan18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,054 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    Russman wrote: »
    Is it possible (genuinely wondering) to keep this disease at a certain level though ? Does the nature of it not mean it will always be rising (if things are open) or always declining (with restrictions) ?
    I don't know the answer to that, but I'm not sure there's a level of restrictions/activity that will keep cases at a certain range indefinitely. Even last summer when we were at a really low level, they didn't stay there, they started rising almost immediately, granted very slowly. Hopefully the rate of increase if we got very low might buy enough time for vaccinations to get ahead of the game.

    I'd be interested to see how things would stay with everything bar hospitality open. It still limits socialisation a lot but does allow people to live normal enough


  • #5306
    marno21
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,694 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Philip Nolan is totally out of touch with ordinary reality for most people.

    Yes but unfortunately he’s the voice the public are hearing and not Government. Which is the problem in a nutshell


  • #5307
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,515 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    Did you read the article?

    I did, the article states we've been dosing AZ after 4 weeks, which is not correct. It's 12 weeks. Every bit of literature around the AZ jab states 12 weeks for your second dose.

    In the event people 70+ were given AZ it was recommended that their second dose be after 4 weeks. That was quickly scrapped early February and extended to 12 weeks in line with all age groups.

    So I'm not sure what the article is talking about.


  • #5308
    Theboinkmaster
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,075 ✭✭✭Theboinkmaster


    Russman wrote: »
    I'm definitely not suggesting its not the schools, but on the broader point, I do think people are moving about much more. I drop my sister to work (essential worker, living in the same house) and collect her, most days, and she works various shifts and I can definitely notice and see a lot more traffic out and about. I appreciate its only anecdotal and one person's observation but IMO there's definitely a lot more movement than, say a month ago.

    Yes I agree, what the government don't seem to grasp is they're losing public goodwill so now as we progress into spring more and more people are going to disregard the restrictions and crack on with their lives as much as they can.

    Without a sensible re-opening plan from government what else do you expect.

    A lot more people out and about - sure it's the THIRD month of level 5 lockdown how long do they expect people to follow these absurd restrictions with no firm plan out?

    Should be level 4 now and level 3 towards the end of April/beginning of May. Everything outdoors based should be open right now.

    If you don't communicated to people and string them along with no hope you'll get non-compliance like this, a 5 year old could tell you that.


  • #5309
    Akabusi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,117 ✭✭✭Akabusi


    Russman wrote: »
    Is it possible (genuinely wondering) to keep this disease at a certain level though ? Does the nature of it not mean it will always be rising (if things are open) or always declining (with restrictions) ?
    I don't know the answer to that, but I'm not sure there's a level of restrictions/activity that will keep cases at a certain range indefinitely. Even last summer when we were at a really low level, they didn't stay there, they started rising almost immediately, granted very slowly. Hopefully the rate of increase if we got very low might buy enough time for vaccinations to get ahead of the game.

    Yeah, we know how to reduce them (that's not fun) and we know what drives them mad. Its that balance where they can be steady that is key. On the other hand if more and more of the most vulnerable are getting vaccinated then rising (not to fast) numbers would be acceptable.


  • #5310
    timmyntc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,642 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Russman wrote: »
    Is it possible (genuinely wondering) to keep this disease at a certain level though ? Does the nature of it not mean it will always be rising (if things are open) or always declining (with restrictions) ?
    I don't know the answer to that, but I'm not sure there's a level of restrictions/activity that will keep cases at a certain range indefinitely. Even last summer when we were at a really low level, they didn't stay there, they started rising almost immediately, granted very slowly. Hopefully the rate of increase if we got very low might buy enough time for vaccinations to get ahead of the game.

    Yes of course. There will be some level of restrictions where we reach an equilibrium of sorts wrt new cases. New cases will remain constant at such a point.

    There has been no indication from govt or NPHET that they would look for such a point though. They seem content to go into the boom-bust virus cycle that we're in now.


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  • #5311
    mean gene
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 875 ✭✭✭mean gene


    No vaccines hundreds of cases this gonna run and run


This discussion has been closed.
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