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Covid 19 Part XXXIII-231,484 ROI(4,610 deaths)116,197 NI (2,107 deaths)(23/03)Read OP

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  • #5042
    lawrencesummers
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,870 ✭✭✭lawrencesummers


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    In fairness, Pavee Point tweeted today. Oh, sorry, about importance of vaccines, not about importance of staying the fúck away from large funerals.

    546721.png

    Pavee Point only ever see one side of the coin.

    Better off directing anger at the church, who cosy up to travellers because they are a lucrative ‘customer’.

    Gardai are under resourced to handle anything like this, they know that a few flat earthers listening to a speech is far easier to handle than a gang of drunk lads who love fighting and often have weapons at hand

    If the Gardai were to tackle this they would remove the marquee and all the alcohol, and insist that every off licence in town closes for the next few days.

    But that won’t happen


  • #5043
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,690 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    There was a story on the front page of the Irish Times earlier but I can't find it now

    It said there were some 2,000 Covid cases acquired in Irish hospitals since the year began

    That's worrying isn't it? It goes against the recent report that less than 1% of a recently mass tested hospital came out positive

    Maybe some of the reliable regulars; Stephen, GoldenGirl, Spookwoman etc can help us find the link elsewhere apart from the IT

    I believe up to 40% of hospital cases in hospital at time’s acquired it in hospital

    It’s not in NPHET’s interest to discuss that type of data


  • #5044
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    On the news just there; the RO now at "between .6 and 1"

    Surely an R0 of 1 with the new variants means exponential spread again if it goes even a little higher?


  • #5045
    corcaigh07
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,822 ✭✭✭corcaigh07


    lukas8888 wrote: »
    Update from Carrick On Shannon.

    I live in the town and the latest news from a local guard is roughly 150 to 200
    mourners... having a drinking session in the newly erected state of art marquee.
    The alcohol was transported from the local Tesco and the youngsters ran past the assembled gardai cheering and goading as they passed.
    People may ask why are the Gardai allowing this but they are worried of a wholesale riot if they intervene.
    pretty galling to all who have buried family members over the last twelve months,and also on anyone who has received a fine for travelling out of their local area not to mention the resultant inevitable covid outbreak.But but its our culture.

    Meanwhile, RTE ignore this story altogether (not on the front page anyway) but the 3rd biggest story is a tiny shebeen in Cavan.


  • #5046
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,954 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    iamwhoiam wrote: »
    It sounds like he was speaking in riddles

    A sign of great power and wisdom. Possibly...

    tumblr_muruv0s6oN1qjjhbco2_250.gifv


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  • #5047
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 12,836 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    On the news just there; the RO now at "between .6 and 1"

    Surely an R0 of 1 with the new variants means exponential spread again if it goes even a little higher?
    It's a borderline meaningless statistic if their estimated spread is that wide


  • #5048
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    I believe up to 40% of hospital cases in hospital at time’s acquired it in hospital

    It’s not in NPHET’s interest to discuss that type of data


    Cheers

    I've looked high and low on the Irish Times site and elsewhere and the story is now gone, which is very strange

    "2,000 Covid cases acquired in Irish hospitals since the year began" was there at 5pm


  • #5049
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,954 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    lawrencesummers wrote: »
    If the Gardai were to tackle this they would remove the marquee

    Are they entitled to do this without a 'warrant' or whatever?


  • #5050
    SEPT 23 1989
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,038 ✭✭✭✭SEPT 23 1989


    I think schools and the UK variant have dampened the party mood in NPHET


  • #5051
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,283 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    Doctor Jimbob wrote: »
    Did he mention what the something of significance was?

    Essentially that the level of decline in case numbers has levelled off slightly in recent days and that there's been a clear rise in mobility data since the beginning of last week - and there's a possibility that there's a link between that rise in mobility beginning last week and the relative stagnation in the rate of decline in case numbers as of this week - because you'd start to see the effects in case numbers from increased socialisation and mobility at around this time.

    BUT

    It's too early to say if it's a definite pattern, but if there is any link at all, you are as well off to mention it to the public, because at worst all that may have happened is that you raised a false alarm and at best you might have an influence on enough people's behaviour to partially change it, if indeed, those warning signs are worth heeding.


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  • #5052
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,690 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    On the news just there; the RO now at "between .6 and 1"

    Surely an R0 of 1 with the new variants means exponential spread again if it goes even a little higher?

    I would advise people to stop paying attention to the R number when it’s highlighted by the media in Ireland. It’s only relevant when case numbers are very high

    Otherwise it’s a manipulation of stats to massage an agenda of constant worry and unease among the public

    09 July 2020

    A day when 23 new cases were announced

    https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0709/1152238-covid19-coronavirus-ireland/
    The National Public Health Emergency Team has said there is an "immediate need to take care and caution", as the reproductive rate of Covid-19 in Ireland now stands at, or above, 1.

    The reproductive rate, or 'R number', indicates the number of people on average that an infected person will pass the virus on to.

    It comes as the Department of Health announced that a further six people diagnosed with Covid-19 in Ireland have died.

    It brings the total number of deaths linked to the virus here to 1,743.

    Until we change the metric’s, this never ends


  • #5053
    lawrencesummers
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,870 ✭✭✭lawrencesummers


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    Are they entitled to do this without a 'warrant' or whatever?

    Is it private property?


  • #5054
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,690 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »
    I think schools and the UK variant have dampened the party mood in NPHET

    It didn’t dampen in the UK itself though


  • #5055
    newuser99999
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 378 ✭✭newuser99999


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    Cheers

    I've looked high and low on the Irish Times site and elsewhere and the story is now gone, which is very strange

    "2,000 Covid cases acquired in Irish hospitals since the year began" was there at 5pm

    I saw it too


  • #5056
    lawrencesummers
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,870 ✭✭✭lawrencesummers


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    Cheers

    I've looked high and low on the Irish Times site and elsewhere and the story is now gone, which is very strange

    "2,000 Covid cases acquired in Irish hospitals since the year began" was there at 5pm

    There have been large periods of the last year where the only place possible (99.99999%) to get covid was a Hospital, nursing home or meat factory.

    But that message hasn’t gotten through to the mask wearing people out for a walk on their own.


  • #5057
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    Arghus wrote: »
    Essentially that the level of decline in case numbers has levelled off slightly in recent days and that there's been a clear rise in mobility data since the beginning of last week


    Now I wonder what could have re-opened again recently ....



    everything-is-fine-nothing-to-see-here-move-along-now.jpg


  • #5058
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    newuser99999 wrote: »
    I saw it too


    Good. I thought I was losing the plot

    Is the story not showing anywhere for you now too?


  • #5059
    newuser99999
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 378 ✭✭newuser99999


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    Good. I thought I was losing the plot

    Is the story not showing anywhere for you now too?

    Not there now. Was on the front page with a picture of a hospital earlier.


  • #5060
    ThunbergsAreGo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,399 ✭✭✭✭ThunbergsAreGo


    Did they explain where the zero in the age range came from?


  • #5061
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,038 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    I would advise people to stop paying attention to the R number when it’s highlighted by the media in Ireland. It’s only relevant when case numbers are very high

    Otherwise it’s a manipulation of stats to massage an agenda of constant worry and unease among the public
    Eh? How is it a "manipulation of stats"? An R number above 1 will lead to an exponential increase, no matter what base level you start off at (aside from 0, I suppose), and similarly an R number below 1 to exponential decay.

    The R number will remain relevant until there is no longer a need to be concerned about the effects of the disease.


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  • #5062
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,283 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    On the news just there; the RO now at "between .6 and 1"

    Surely an R0 of 1 with the new variants means exponential spread again if it goes even a little higher?

    What he means is that above or equal to .6 is the low estimate and lower or equal to 1 is the higher estimate. You don't get expontial growth at 1 - it just means the epidemic isn't being suppressed, you have to have a R rate above 1 for it to be growing.

    And the likelihood of the R rate being exactly at 1, given the fairly big difference in estimated figures, is currently is very low.


  • #5063
    Akabusi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,117 ✭✭✭Akabusi


    That shebeen in Cavan actually looks very safe. Outdoors and all.


  • #5064
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    newuser99999 wrote: »
    Not there now. Was on the front page with a picture of a hospital earlier.


    Very strange they pulled that story

    It was at the top of their front page. As in, it was their lead story


  • #5065
    bodhrandude
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,918 ✭✭✭✭bodhrandude


    ThunbergsAreGo wrote: »
    Did they explain where the zero in the age range came from?

    Perhaps the still borns?

    If you want to get into it, you got to get out of it. (Hawkwind 1982)



  • #5066
    Sweet.Science
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,063 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    Arghus wrote: »
    Essentially that the level of decline in case numbers has levelled off slightly in recent days and that there's been a clear rise in mobility data since the beginning of last week - and there's a possibility that there's a link between that rise in mobility beginning last week and the relative stagnation in the rate of decline in case numbers as of this week - because you'd start to see the effects in case numbers from increased socialisation and mobility at around this time.

    BUT

    It's too early to say if it's a definite pattern, but if there is any link at all, you are as well off to mention it to the public, because at worst all that may have happened is that you raised a false alarm and at best you might have an influence on enough people's behaviour to partially change it, if indeed, those warning signs are worth heeding.

    Jesus I wonder what could have happened last week to increase mobility data and stagnated the rate of decline


  • #5067
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,283 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    Doctor Jimbob wrote: »
    That's essentially saying there's been an increase since the schools reopened without actually mentioning schools.

    He mentioned schools - plenty of times - and that you'd expect to see an increase of mobility data - obviously everybody knows you'll expect to see an increase in mobility with schools returning. It isn't a conspiracy, they referenced that frequently in the briefing.

    But there was also other evidence indicative that other things were going on too.

    For instance, the data suggested that attendence in work places was 25% at it's lowest point in February, but it's been rising steadily since and as much as 60% attendance may be going on now.


  • #5068
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 12,836 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Arghus wrote: »
    What he means is that above or equal to .6 is the low estimate and lower or equal to 1 is the higher estimate. You don't get expontial growth at 1 - it just means the epidemic isn't being suppressed, you have to have a R rate above 1 for it to be growing.

    And the likelihood of the R rate being exactly at 1, given the fairly big difference in estimated figures, is currently is very low.

    The practical differences between those R ranges is so great - 0.6 would lead to massive decreases and 1 would be no change at all. If you cant estimate it more precisely than that it's not worth mentioning at all. It's genuinely meaningless


  • #5069
    Monster249
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 268 ✭✭Monster249


    Why do they expect the numbers to keep exponentially decreasing when Dublin is packed every day?

    It's quite obvious that people are out and about, retail parks are absolutely wall to wall on weekends like normal pre-covid, people are just getting tired of this.


  • #5070
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,235 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Thanks CruelSummer :)


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  • #5071
    lukas8888
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 529 ✭✭✭lukas8888


    Deleted User wrote: »
    If true, this is a total and utter disgrace.

    100% true,why would you think otherwise.Take a read of the Leitrim Observer
    if you need reassurance.I would think at this stage all but the most sheltered
    know that our travelling ethnic group abide by their own rules,fines and the rule of law are not applicable.


This discussion has been closed.
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