Covid 19 Part XXXIII-231,484 ROI(4,610 deaths)116,197 NI (2,107 deaths)(23/03)Read OP

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

I'm not in the age cohort the professor alludes to but I can see the logic behind his suggestion.
Reported elsewhere that Nphets P Nolan has said cases need to between 0 and 200 a day before an easing beyond what has been already mooted for April 5th can happen.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40242059.html

I think it's always been up for consideration. Karina Butler mentioned this possibility when they were talking about vaccination plans. Nolan seems to be the only one at this stage who'll quantify any targets. Unfortunately, that will just merge into a fixed 6 week plan, with ministers, except Leo, refusing to be drawn on it.

Texas is wide open, they should be like Lombardy fairly soon you would think if not already and if not then why?.

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

I'm not in the age cohort the professor alludes to but I can see the logic behind his suggestion.
Reported elsewhere that Nphets P Nolan has said cases need to between 0 and 200 a day before an easing beyond what has been already mooted for April 5th can happen.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40242059.html

There seems to be this panic about the Wednesday bump. The trend is still going down and 3 weeks is a long time.

Still think a disproportionate amount of time and energy spent on the hotel quarantine and travel issue. House parties are back big time and they may be a risk in keeping case numbers up although the risk profile is not particularly high.

Hopefully we will not have a ‘meaningful’ St Patrick’s Day.

is_that_so wrote: »

I think it's always been up for consideration. Karina Butler mentioned this possibility when they were talking about vaccination plans. Nolan seems to be the only one at this stage who'll quantify any targets. Unfortunately, that will just merge into a fixed 6 week plan, with ministers, except Leo, refusing to be drawn on it.

Last quantified goal from a politician was Leo saying we needed ICU below 50 before any real reopening. It was a long time ago so I don't know if it has fallen by the wayside.

Happydays2020 wrote: »

There seems to be this panic about the Wednesday bump. The trend is still going down and 3 weeks is a long time.

Still think a disproportionate amount of time and energy spent on the hotel quarantine and travel issue. House parties are back big time and they may be a risk in keeping case numbers up although the risk profile is not particularly high.

Hopefully we will not have a ‘meaningful’ St Patrick’s Day.

There was massive celebrations about the low numbers on Tuesday and massive panic about Wednesday's high number.

Both were ott and and silly.

is_that_so wrote: »

The problem is the sheer numbers. Dublin has over 20% of the population - it's bigger than any vaccination group on its own.

That's true. I'd like it more if they were able to establish a few extra risk groups based on case numbers and move up their vaccination instead of saying dublin next.

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Last quantified goal from a politician was Leo saying we needed ICU below 50 before any real reopening. It was a long time ago so I don't know if it has fallen by the wayside.

It probably still is but as seems likely at present we'll be below that target within the next few weeks. With a further 6 weeks added in April they'll be in a better position to surprise us with a shorter term but they really have to give up something on April 5 that will cheer people up - the 5KM is almost the easiest one to do.

is_that_so wrote: »

Seems some shoppers will not be going back until it's very safe. That's the price for telling people to imagine that everyone has it!



https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0310/1203255-consumers-reluctant-to-return-to-in-store-shopping/

I'm not sure the demographic that they surveyed but theres no way that 71% of the people I know will wait till the pandemic is better controlled (whatever that even means) before they go back shopping.

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

I'm not in the age cohort the professor alludes to but I can see the logic behind his suggestion.
Reported elsewhere that Nphets P Nolan has said cases need to between 0 and 200 a day before an easing beyond what has been already mooted for April 5th can happen.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40242059.html

This and the vaccine passport issue are real political hot potatoes.

I see the potential logic in doing this if the vaccines stop all infection including asymptomatic. Jury still seems out on that. The high daily figures still in Israel make me question this. If the vaccine doesn't stop asymptomatic spread then, as a mid forties man, being honest, rightly or wrongly, I would be very worried if they did vaccinate the younger cohort out of turn. As someone said, after ca. 18 months of lockdown young people will socialise like there is no tomorrow once vaccinated. Asymptomatic covid will then become rampant and people like me who can still get pretty sick, and occasionally die, from covid will have a greatly heightened risk of getting it (unless we stay 100% locked down til we finally get vaccinated). Given the 35 to 55 age group are probably society's dominant class, the politicians will be terrified of that scenario (would also be the most economically crippling as 35 to 55 years are drivers of the economy). Again though, if it is clearly shown that the vaccine stops all transmission then maybe this can be overcome and the case for changing the vaccination order might be undeniable.

Allied to that is the vaccine passport issue. Already there are murmurings of you needing this to go to events, to concerts, and ultimately on holidays abroad. Again, if by late August everyone bar the 35 to 55s can go abroad, go to Electric Picnic, etc, etc, that'll be one very pissed off age group. Of course if you don't change the order, you just pass the same issue to the 18 to 35 year olds. It'll be a type of apartheid either way. For this reason I think the politicians will steer clear of vaccine passports ultimately.

is_that_so wrote: »

The problem is the sheer numbers. Dublin has over 20% of the population - it's bigger than any vaccination group on its own.

Well with about 40-50% of the cases at present . I think that allocating 40-50% of available supply would be wise. We should have a strategy that will optimize how effective the vaccine rollout is. It will save lives and business's. It has been a consistent trend that Dublin and counties near it have had a much higher incidence in every wave.

Deleted User wrote: »

That's an inaccurate interpretation.

Locking down in October, then re-opening for 2-weeks, was a mad idea - and it contributed to enormous and needless levels of interaction.

Add to that toxic maelstrom the inevitability of Xmas interactions and seasonal factors, and therein lies the cause of the peak in question.

Completely different circumstances to Texas.

But you can't dispute my point that near normal levels of social activity, quickly and immediately resulted in surge of cases. That's my point. You can't pretend that it won't happen again.

The question about why that happened isn't actually relevant to the point I'm making. Okay, in your opinion, reasons A, B and C contributed to circumstances etc, etc - but that doesn't change the facts of what is borne out by the end results: you can't just quickly return to relatively unrestricted living and not expect there to be a quick resurgence of the virus. We've already seen it happen.

Arghus wrote: »

I don't really know how people can argue that these things won't happen.

We opened up - with still plenty of restrictions in place mind you - for one month in December - and case numbers, hospital admissions and deaths quickly sky rocketed and we had to slam the brakes hard again to get things back under control. If we'd have let it go much longer things would have got even worse.

This literally happened in front of all our eyes, here in Ireland, just a few weeks ago. Do people not remember this?

I am talking about Texas, i never mentioned Ireland, genuine question, why is not happening in Texas and parts of the states. Why are we so different here.

Arghus wrote: »

But you can't dispute my point that near normal levels of social activity, quickly and immediately resulted in surge of cases. That's my point. You can't pretend that it won't happen again.

Yes, and if we were to go around licking each others faces then that would cause a surge of cases too. Just as unlikely to happen as us going back to proper normal socialising before we have ~70% of population vaccinated.

People are asking for a relaxing of the strictest restrictions in Europe, which are crippling our economy more than any other in Europe, and will likely leave us with the most coronavirus debt of any country in Europe.

That doesnt mean a wild west free for all with packed pubs and shifting randomers faces off. It's dishonest of you to suggest that it does. Right now we want (and need) a return to level 3 of last year at the very least. Save our SME and hospitality sector before its too late, and stop with the needless restrictions on people's freedoms.

niallo27 wrote: »

I am talking about Texas, i never mentioned Ireland, genuine question, why is not happening in Texas and parts of the states. Why are we so different here.

We have had a much more conservative approach than the US throughout this. Its not going to change. Vaccine rollout much here much slower. Posters continually arguing and complaining is just not doing themselves or anyone any good.

Anyone have any links perhaps to a youtube video about the effort required to debunk bad science?

I was reading a fact-check article and was thinking about about how the amount of effort that has to go into compiling such an article would take hours.

Whereas anyone with a platform (twitter following or what have you) can throw out a claim in a few seconds, making it very easy to spread false information while the effort required to counter that is enormous.

Person A with a few thousand followers could throw out random "fact" #123 with a few taps, then Person B has to spend hours researching and compiling info to explain why "fact" #123 is in fact total BS.

I was thinking there might be a good article or video talking about the imbalance between the two - I think the internet is so toxic in this way in that it appears to give equal weight to Person A and Person B, where Person A can present themselves as authoritative and trustworthy without any real balanced or accredited expertise. It's easy to forget how skewed and unfair it is that the volume of bad information to good puts such a heavy burden on those who are trying to correct the people who can just throw out a "fact" due to ignorance, or other reasons, and present it as absolutely true.

newboard wrote: »

Anyone have any links perhaps to a youtube video about the effort required to debunk bad science?

I was reading a fact-check article and was thinking about about how the amount of effort that has to go into compiling such an article would take hours.

Whereas anyone with a platform (twitter following or what have you) can throw out a claim in a few seconds, making it very easy to spread false information while the effort required to counter that is enormous.

Person A with a few thousand followers could throw out random "fact" #123 with a few taps, then Person B has to spend hours researching and compiling info to explain why "fact" #123 is in fact total BS.

I was thinking there might be a good article or video talking about the imbalance between the two - I think the internet is so toxic in this way in that it appears to give equal weight to Person A and Person B, where Person A can present themselves as authoritative and trustworthy without any real balanced or accredited expertise. It's easy to forget how skewed and unfair it is that the volume of bad information to good puts such a heavy burden on those who are trying to correct the people who can just throw out a "fact" due to ignorance, or other reasons, and present it as absolutely true.

I find it a better approach not to take YouTube or any social media as evidence of anything in this and stick to the written word. You may have to do more work but you should get a more complete picture.