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Covid 19 Part XXXIII-231,484 ROI(4,610 deaths)116,197 NI (2,107 deaths)(23/03)Read OP

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  • #3992
    SusieBlue
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,029 ✭✭✭SusieBlue


    eagle eye wrote: »
    Where do we lie with overall deaths?
    I notice you went specifically with nursing homes but as regards overall deaths where do we lie?

    The vast majority of our deaths have occurred in nursing homes or were a result of hospital acquired infections, ie. patients who were admitted for other health issues who contracted the virus in hospital.

    It was repeatedly hammered home by the government that the ONLY way to protect the vulnerable people in these settings was with long and strict lockdowns, and from what I can see, it didn’t really protect them at all. Hence having the highest nursing home deaths per capita in the EU, and a number of hospital deaths being made up of patients who acquired the virus after being admitted.


  • #3993
    Turtwig
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    SusieBlue wrote: »
    The vast majority of our deaths have occurred in nursing homes or were a result of hospital acquired infections, ie. patients who were admitted for other health issues who contracted the virus in hospital.

    It was repeatedly hammered home by the government that the ONLY way to protect the vulnerable people in these settings was with long and strict lockdowns, and from what I can see, it didn’t really protect them at all. Hence having the highest nursing home deaths per capita in the EU, and a number of hospital deaths being made up of patients who acquired the virus after being admitted.

    You don't seriously expect the minority proportion of deaths to be among the nursing home or extremely vulnerable in hospital? I ask this question because I'm trying to understand what distribution of deaths you would consider desirable. Even if restrictions, social isolation and tracing techniques were perfect I cannot see any way the distribution of deaths is dispersed any differently. It's like an old age great winter, the weak and frail will die in the greatest proportion.


  • #3994
    SusieBlue
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,029 ✭✭✭SusieBlue


    Turtwig wrote: »
    You don't seriously expect the minority proportion of deaths to be among the nursing home or extremely vulnerable in hospital? I ask this question because I'm trying to understand what distribution of deaths you would consider desirable. Even if restrictions, social isolation and tracing techniques were perfect I cannot see any way the distribution of deaths is dispersed any differently. It's like an old age great winter, the weak and frail will die in the greatest proportion.

    I don’t understand how we’ve had the longest and strictest lockdowns yet have had the most nursing home deaths, and don’t seem to have done any better or worse case wise than countries who had far less severe lockdowns and policies than we do. That just doesn’t make sense to me.

    I guess I’m wondering how other countries managed to protect their nursing home & hospital inpatient citizens better than we did with less strict measures?
    Because Leo & MM et al have repeatedly stated that the only way to protect these people is with severe long lockdowns. So how did other countries manage to do better, with less severe measures in place?


  • #3995
    gctest50
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,534 ✭✭✭gctest50


    Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »
    Which speaks for itself as a tribute to our medical personnel, NPHET, and our governments. People have to recognise that they sacrifices they made have allowed other to live. And take that as a tribute to themselves.


    [b that they sacrifices they made .....[/b]


    What sacrifices ? Doing what they are paid for ?

    Dealing with dead bodies ?

    Wearing a little bit of PPE badly and spreading it :



    A third of patients with Covid-19 in hospital contracted the virus while on wards, says Tánaiste
    ‘They didn’t come in Covid positive, they picked up Covid while in the hospital,’ said Leo Varadkar.


    https://www.thejournal.ie/third-contracting-covid-in-hospital-varadkar-5331491-Jan2021/


  • #3996
    Turtwig
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    SusieBlue wrote: »
    I don’t understand how we’ve had the longest and strictest lockdowns yet have had the most nursing home deaths, and don’t seem to have done any better or worse case wise than countries who had far less severe lockdowns and policies than we do. That just doesn’t make sense to me.

    I guess I’m wondering how other countries managed to protect their nursing home & hospital inpatient citizens better than we did with less strict measures?
    Because Leo & MM et al have repeatedly stated that the only way to protect these people is with severe long lockdowns. So how did other countries manage to do better, with less severe measures in place?

    I understand you don't understand that. However, I'm not addressing that or questioning that aspect here. I'm trying to understand why you think it's abnormal that the medically vulnerable and folks in nursing homes are the highest proportions of deaths?

    What distribution of deaths do you expect if restrictions or whatever worked perfectly?


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  • #3997
    Natterjack from Kerry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 622 ✭✭✭Natterjack from Kerry


    SusieBlue wrote: »
    don’t seem to have done any better or worse case wise than countries who had far less severe lockdowns and policies than we do. That just doesn’t make sense to me.

    Which countries are you referring to specifically ?


  • #3998
    Jim_Hodge
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,294 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    SusieBlue wrote: »
    I don’t understand how we’ve had the longest and strictest lockdowns yet have had the most nursing home deaths, and don’t seem to have done any better or worse case wise than countries who had far less severe lockdowns and policies than we do. That just doesn’t make sense to me.

    I guess I’m wondering how other countries managed to protect their nursing home & hospital inpatient citizens better than we did with less strict measures?
    Because Leo & MM et al have repeatedly stated that the only way to protect these people is with severe long lockdowns. So how did other countries manage to do better, with less severe measures in place?

    I'm not going digging up all the reports but have a search through news from last year in Spain, Italy and France regarding covid deaths in care homes, nursing homes and hospital settings.


  • #3999
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,539 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    SusieBlue wrote: »
    Other countries have had shorter and far less severe lockdowns than us, yet we still win the prize for having the most nursing home deaths per capita in Europe... despite having the longest and strictest lockdowns.
    Do you have a table for nursing home deaths per capita for Europe?


  • #4000
    Natterjack from Kerry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 622 ✭✭✭Natterjack from Kerry


    Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »
    Which countries are you referring to specifically ?

    No need for an exhaustive list, but just the main bunch off the top of your head that you studied to arrive at that conclusion.


  • #4001
    SusieBlue
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,029 ✭✭✭SusieBlue


    Turtwig wrote: »
    I understand you don't understand that. However, I'm not addressing that or questioning that aspect here. I'm trying to understand why you think it's abnormal that the medically vulnerable and folks in nursing homes are the highest proportions of deaths?

    What distribution of deaths do you expect if restrictions or whatever worked perfectly?

    I don’t think it’s particularly abnormal, I just don’t understand how we’re top of the leaderboard in that department when we’ve had the longest and strictest lockdown.


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  • #4002
    PowerToWait
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,792 ✭✭✭PowerToWait


    SusieBlue wrote: »
    Other countries have had shorter and far less severe lockdowns than us, yet we still win the prize for having the most nursing home deaths per capita in Europe... despite having the longest and strictest lockdowns.

    How did other countries manage to protect their elderly and vulnerable citizens better than we did with shorter & less severe lockdowns?
    Because the nay sayers will always blame the monitory here who don’t follow the rules, but the reality is that there will always be a minority cohort in every country who didn’t follow the rules either.
    So with this in mind, how did they achieve better results than we did?

    I mean yeah, we can gloat and pat ourselves on the back that it got the case numbers down. It came at a monumental social and economic cost that we will suffer for, for years to come, but it would have been worth it if it stopped hospital acquired infections and prevented deaths in our nursing homes.
    But it didn’t do that. It ripped through those settings for the last year and only started to taper off in the last few weeks as the effects of the vaccine began to take hold. And that’s why it begs the question of how other countries managed to protect these vulnerable citizens better than we did, with less restrictions.
    Protecting these elderly and vulnerable people was the whole point of these lockdowns in the first place.

    Each lockdown is less effective than the last. Each time it takes longer for the cases to come back down, and there is a bigger surge when things reopen because people are so desperate for human contact and a taste of normality.
    It was never supposed to be a long term solution for months on end, it’s completely unsustainable.

    There is absolutely no accountability from the government for any of this, instead they just push the responsibility & blame back on the public and that’s what annoys me.
    We held up our end of the bargain, we have suffered through the strictest and longest lockdown in Europe and the 4th strictest in the world, only coming in behind countries that are dictatorships (!!!!).
    And yet despite all this hardship and sacrifice, we are doing no better (and in some cases a lot worse) than countries with far more balanced and measured approaches to managing the virus.


    Would you have links to any sources for all the claims made here? Or are you just throwing out any oul’ guff and passing it as fact?


  • #4003
    Turtwig
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    SusieBlue wrote: »
    I don’t think it’s particularly abnormal, I just don’t understand how we’re top of the leaderboard in that department when we’ve had the longest and strictest lockdown.

    Well if we can't understand what your barometer for success for the distribution of deaths is how can we actually address or understand the underlying point you're trying to make
    :confused:


  • #4004
    Jim_Hodge
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,294 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    SusieBlue wrote: »
    I don’t think it’s particularly abnormal, I just don’t understand how we’re top of the leaderboard in that department when we’ve had the longest and strictest lockdown.

    You keep missing an important point. We're NOT.


  • #4005
    SusieBlue
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,029 ✭✭✭SusieBlue


    Turtwig wrote: »
    Well if we can't understand what your barometer for success for the distribution of deaths is how can we actually address or understand the underlying point you're trying to make
    :confused:

    I think the point I’m making is quite clear. If we’ve had the longest and strictest lockdown, which is apparently the only way to protect the vulnerable as per the government, why have we consistently had a high number of cases, deaths, and acquired infections in our nursing homes and hospitals?
    Yet countries with less severe restrictions have not seen such high numbers in similar settings?


  • #4006
    Turtwig
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    SusieBlue wrote: »
    I think the point I’m making is quite clear. ,
    If we’ve had the longest and strictest lockdown
    We haven't.
    which is apparently the only way to protect the vulnerable as per the government,
    It isn't.
    why have we consistently had a high number of cases, deaths, and acquired infections in our nursing homes and hospitals?
    We did not adequately control the spread of the infection. Hence why we're in lockdown post Christmas for months.
    Yet countries with less severe restrictions have not seen such high numbers in similar settings?
    If by this you mean New Zealand, Vietnam they simply never allowed the virus gain a foothold in the first place. Vietnam has first, second and even third order contact tracing which does greatly help limit spread.

    I'm unsure what country in the UK, US or Europe could fit your criteria though. Ireland kind of did one of the better out of a bad bunch.


  • #4007
    TheDoctor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,980 ✭✭✭TheDoctor


    Hospital numbers at 8pm

    Total 420 (up from 416 last night)
    ICU 103 (up from 102 last night)

    Last Sunday
    Total 537
    ICU 132


  • #4008
    SusieBlue
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,029 ✭✭✭SusieBlue


    Turtwig wrote: »
    We haven't.


    It isn't.


    We did not adequately control the spread of the infection. Hence why we're in lockdown post Christmas for months.


    If by this you mean New Zealand, Vietnam they simply never allowed the virus gain a foothold in the first place. Vietnam has first, second and even third order contact tracing which does greatly help limit spread.

    I'm unsure what country in the UK, US or Europe could fit your criteria though. Ireland kind of did one of the better out of a bad bunch.

    I have literally zero interest in engaging in engaging in a lengthy multi quote battle with you.
    We haven’t been able to control the spread of the virus in these settings since day one, this isn’t a new problem since Christmas.
    We were told, repeatedly by the government, that the only way to protect these settings was with lengthy strict lockdowns, yet a huge amount of patients still acquired the virus while in hospital, despite these lockdowns.
    That is what I take issue with and that’s where I think some accountability from the government is needed.


  • #4009
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,539 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    TheDoctor wrote: »
    Hospital numbers at 8pm

    Total 420 (up from 416 last night)
    ICU 103 (up from 102 last night)

    Last Sunday
    Total 537
    ICU 132

    Low daily admissions are really helping keeping the numbers low over the weekends. I honestly though we'd hit a level where hospital cases kinda plateau at a highish level. I'm really glad they keep going down week on week.
    I guess the vaccination of HCW's is really stopping patients being infected in hospitals.


  • #4010
    Turtwig
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    SusieBlue wrote: »
    I have literally zero interest in engaging in engaging in a lengthy multi quote battle with you.
    We haven’t been able to control the spread of the virus in these settings since day one, this isn’t a new problem since Christmas.
    We were told, repeatedly by the government, that the only way to protect these settings was with lengthy strict lockdowns, yet a huge amount of patients still acquired the virus while in hospital, despite these lockdowns.
    That is what I take issue with and that’s where I think some accountability from the government is needed.

    I feel you keep moving the goalposts. Are you saying that other countries prevented hospital acquired infections better than Ireland? Because I haven't seen anything to suggest Ireland performed worse in this regard.

    Definitely in the first wave there was serious short comings in the community care and hospital setting. I don't think Ireland performed exceptionally poorly by relative metrics in comparison to other countries. This is your claim is it not?

    Would you accept the government's claim that higher burden of infection in the community will eventually translate to a greater risk of outbreak in a nursing home or hospital?


  • #4011
    Natterjack from Kerry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 622 ✭✭✭Natterjack from Kerry


    SusieBlue wrote: »
    I have literally zero interest in engaging in engaging in a lengthy multi quote battle with you.
    We haven’t been able to control the spread of the virus in these settings since day one, this isn’t a new problem since Christmas.
    We were told, repeatedly by the government, that the only way to protect these settings was with lengthy strict lockdowns, yet a huge amount of patients still acquired the virus while in hospital, despite these lockdowns.
    That is what I take issue with and that’s where I think some accountability from the government is needed.

    What country was second to Ireland in the lockdown severity survey you are basing your conclusions on ?


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  • #4012
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,595 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    SusieBlue wrote: »
    I have literally zero interest in engaging in engaging in a lengthy multi quote battle with you.
    We haven’t been able to control the spread of the virus in these settings since day one, this isn’t a new problem since Christmas.
    We were told, repeatedly by the government, that the only way to protect these settings was with lengthy strict lockdowns, yet a huge amount of patients still acquired the virus while in hospital, despite these lockdowns.
    That is what I take issue with and that’s where I think some accountability from the government is needed.

    Its a pandemic there's no perfect protection.

    Our government did their best and did relatively well compared to our neighbours. I can't find comparison tables but I will just compare us with the UK.

    Up until 5 February the UK had 37k deaths in care homes which is about 9% of the care home population (care home population of 400,000).

    Up until 2 February we had 1543 deaths in nursing homes which is about 5% of the care home population (care home population of approx 30,000).

    We had 369 covid deaths in care homes in January due to an orgy of imbecility from the population during December. Yes the government didn't have the guts to put us in level 5 before Christmas but who expected them too. I did argue against relaxations at the start of December but the level of compliance was falling and probably would have continued to fall.


  • #4013
    Natterjack from Kerry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 622 ✭✭✭Natterjack from Kerry


    SusieBlue wrote: »
    I have literally zero interest in engaging in engaging in a lengthy multi quote battle with you.

    No need for a length, multi quote thread. I have asked a couple of simple factual questions which should be readily answerable in a single post. Could you deal with those ?


  • #4014
    Jim_Hodge
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,294 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    SusieBlue wrote: »
    I have literally zero interest in engaging in engaging in a lengthy multi quote battle with you.
    We haven’t been able to control the spread of the virus in these settings since day one, this isn’t a new problem since Christmas.
    We were told, repeatedly by the government, that the only way to protect these settings was with lengthy strict lockdowns, yet a huge amount of patients still acquired the virus while in hospital, despite these lockdowns.
    That is what I take issue with and that’s where I think some accountability from the government is needed.

    Again, I'll ask...have you looked at the stats for other countries? List the best 5 or 6 and the worst few after ourselves. What league table are you using as a source?


  • #4015
    SusieBlue
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,029 ✭✭✭SusieBlue


    Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »
    What country was second to Ireland in the lockdown severity survey you are basing your conclusions on ?

    Experts at the University of Oxford have compiled together data from the pandemic responses of 180 countries around the globe.

    They've examined how strict the rules are in each nation, and created an index to determine which countries currently have the toughest lockdowns, called the Coronavirus Response Tracker.

    Ireland ranks fourth on the list, with only Cuba, Eritrea and Honduras having tougher measures in place.

    The UK is ranked sixth on the list, and is deemed to have the second toughest lockdown in Europe.

    https://www.irishpost.com/news/irelands-coronavirus-lockdown-ranked-toughest-in-europe-and-4th-toughest-in-the-world-204462


  • #4016
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,539 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    SusieBlue wrote: »

    Experts at the University of Oxford have compiled together data from the pandemic responses of 180 countries around the globe.

    They've examined how strict the rules are in each nation, and created an index to determine which countries currently have the toughest lockdowns, called the Coronavirus Response Tracker.

    Ireland ranks fourth on the list, with only Cuba, Eritrea and Honduras having tougher measures in place.

    The UK is ranked sixth on the list, and is deemed to have the second toughest lockdown in Europe.

    https://www.irishpost.com/news/irelands-coronavirus-lockdown-ranked-toughest-in-europe-and-4th-toughest-in-the-world-204462
    If you like the actual Oxford study they take account of the following things to justify how severe restrictions are:
    Vaccination policy
    Investment in vaccines
    Emergency investment in healthcare
    Testing policy
    Contact tracing
    Public information campaigns
    International support
    etc....

    How any of the above relate to shops closing, travel limit etc... you know the things we see as a lockdown, I don't know.


  • #4017
    Natterjack from Kerry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 622 ✭✭✭Natterjack from Kerry


    SusieBlue wrote: »

    Experts at the University of Oxford have compiled together data from the pandemic responses of 180 countries around the globe.

    They've examined how strict the rules are in each nation, and created an index to determine which countries currently have the toughest lockdowns, called the Coronavirus Response Tracker.

    Ireland ranks fourth on the list, with only Cuba, Eritrea and Honduras having tougher measures in place.

    The UK is ranked sixth on the list, and is deemed to have the second toughest lockdown in Europe.

    https://www.irishpost.com/news/irelands-coronavirus-lockdown-ranked-toughest-in-europe-and-4th-toughest-in-the-world-204462

    Yes, that's the current position. And I note Ireland is not top of the current table. You refer to the Irish govts response record throughout the pandemic, which would be a different set of data. Why do you quote the data above that is not relevant to the conclusion you have drawn, presumably from some other data set ?


  • #4018
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,693 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    Turtwig wrote: »
    Ireland kind of did one of the better out of a bad bunch.

    Not true

    Only the UK and Belgium had higher numbers of vulnerable deaths up to October 2020.
    Deaths in Ireland among the over-65s were the third highest in Europe relative to population. The rate to early October in Ireland was 2,359 deaths per million. Only Belgium and England/Wales had higher rates of deaths.

    Ireland also had the longest mitigation measures of all EU countries up to that point.
    Ireland’s first lockdown was by far the longest in Europe for bars, restaurants, cinemas and non-essential shops, according to a new report.

    I don’t think those figures have improved since last October


  • #4019
    TheDoctor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,980 ✭✭✭TheDoctor


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    Low daily admissions are really helping keeping the numbers low over the weekends. I honestly though we'd hit a level where hospital cases kinda plateau at a highish level. I'm really glad they keep going down week on week.
    I guess the vaccination of HCW's is really stopping patients being infected in hospitals.


    Hopefully smash below 400 tomorrow when the weekend discharges are filed.


  • #4020
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,539 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    Not true

    Only the UK and Belgium had higher numbers of vulnerable deaths up to October 2020.



    Ireland also had the longest mitigation measures of all EU countries up to that point.



    I don’t think those figures have improved since last October

    That figure you're quoting, is that per entire population or per the population over 65?


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  • #4021
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,693 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    That figure you're quoting, is that per entire population or per the population over 65?

    The over 65 population

    Where about 95% of deaths are occurring


This discussion has been closed.
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