When will it all end?

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I hope you're right, but I think it would put a lot of people's mind at ease if there was a level 0 in that plan. In a country with no opposition it's especially important that there be a level 0 since we can't rely on it being called for or pushed for.

Its nothing strange tbh. The UK haven't detailed a level 0 neither has Germany etc - purely for the reason Level = 0 means a return to normal operating conditions. Does that mean Covid will be 100% eliminated? Probably not - but it will most likely drop into the background for most of the year and vaccines will ensure that those who need to be most protected from the disease on a yearly basis will be.

Scotty # wrote: »

People are either part of the problem or part of the solution. We know where you stand.

"You are either with us or you are with the terrorists" :rolleyes:

Irish Stones wrote: »

There weren't any, yet people kept living their lives, not a business broke to financial losses.
I am open to any explanation, maybe I'm missing something.

There have always been restrictions/quarantine s of some kind somewhere during breakouts epidemics and pandemics. The reason we have worldwide (mostly) severe and prolonged restrictions now is because we have evolved towards that outcome (wheather too restrictive or not remains to be extrapolated).
There are c.2 1/2 million deaths from covid over the space of a year. If we didn't have restrictions what would that number be? I read from Toner MD , a John Hopkins centre researcher, who's model showed 65 million deaths in 18 months.
That's 26 times more...for Ireland that would be 4000*26 or 104,000 .
And how many with long covid or bad health ?

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It's good that the UK included a review of social distancing and mask wearing in June. Jennie Harries has also hinted at masks being scrapped come summer: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/face-masks-summer-coronavirus-lockdown-b1806884.html. And there is constant and daily pressure from various media outlets, the Covid Recovery Group, and influential figures.And Querdenken continues to protest regularly in Germany, which will put pressure on the Government.

But in the case of Ireland, because there's no opposition and only the odd small protest, people have to just hope that the government returns lost freedoms.

The point is that a return to no restrictions due to successful vaccinations and lower infection
rates going forward does not need a plan. Hence here, UK, Germany and just about everywhere else I've checked does not have or need a "plan 0". Protesting about wearing facemasks is a different kettle of fish altogether.

Health restrictions based on the current pandemic are by their very nature temporary. We've already been up and down the scale depending on case numbers etc. People need to put down the conspiracy bible tbh.

Micky 32 wrote: »

We certainly know that the misery merchants will still be locked up at xmas and afraid to stick their heads outside the door

You know nothing certainly. Just like me and everyone else.

This isn't about an attitude, it's about facts. If I tell you that shooting a bullet into your brain is likely to kill you, that doesn't make me a misery merchant. It's a statement of likelihood and your feelings on the matter play no part whatsoever.

Considering JUST the way these plans have worked out this far, never mind detailed information, it's more than fair to project that no change in plan will result in the same outcome.

There were supposed to be vaccines before the end of last summer, things were supposed to be back to normal before the end of last summer, the lockdowns will only last till X, this is the last lockdown, "flattening the curve", sure by Christmas it will be grand, sure by spring it will be grand, sure by the end of 2021 it'll be grand, sure by the end of 2025 it'll be grand.

Yeah, it's easy to say "but that's different because we didn't know any better then", but you could keep saying that till the cows come home. What has factually changed on a day to day to day basis? Nothing. Still stuck inside, still can't go anywhere, still lockdowns, still masks, still people dying, still people infected, still "it'll be grand at X date, this time for REAL, double swear".

I'll believe it all when I see it.

lalababa wrote: »

There have always been restrictions/quarantine s of some kind somewhere during breakouts epidemics and pandemics. The reason we have worldwide (mostly) severe and prolonged restrictions now is because we have evolved towards that outcome (wheather too restrictive or not remains to be extrapolated).
There are c.2 1/2 million deaths from covid over the space of a year. If we didn't have restrictions what would that number be? I read from Toner MD , a John Hopkins centre researcher, who's model showed 65 million deaths in 18 months.
That's 26 times more...for Ireland that would be 4000*26 or 104,000 .
And how many with long covid or bad health ?

That's categorically incorrect. Look at the US where many states essentially had no restrictions. Look at Belgium and Sweden.

Those early models have long long since been thrown out and demonstrably been incorrect.

With no restrictions Ireland wouldve had maybe 7k deaths. We are at 4k+ and counting with restrictions.

So the restrictions have saved around 3k lives to date not 100k.

VG31 wrote: »

Who said that? Even the most optimistic predictions last year never stated a vaccine would be available that quickly.

It was very widely reported in the general media, "x company are on course for vaccine development by September perhaps". Very easy to remember because it was a laughable idea at the time.

Deleted User wrote: »

Let's see what happens. The increasing talk of 'a semblance of normality' and 'some kind of normality' doesn't fill me with much optimism, I'm afraid.

You seem to think that when people say "A semblance of normality" they are talking about life in the long term. But that isn't the case. At least you're presenting it that way.

We can't just switch the restrictions off until we are in a position to do so, no matter how much you or others would like to.

If we are in a position in to reduce restrictions while the Covid situation is still going on and return a "semblance of normality" before we reach a point where we go back to full normality, then we should take it. We'd be silly not to.

M_Murphy57 wrote: »

With no restrictions Ireland wouldve had maybe 7k deaths. We are at 4k+ and counting with restrictions.

Bullsh*t!

MrStuffins wrote: »

Bullsh*t!

That's really insightful. Do you want to expand on why you believe Ireland wouldve had a flat 2.6% mortality rate at all ages with no restriction (which was the post I replied to)

Or why there arent 8 million deaths in the US based on the same models the projected 100k+ deaths here?

M_Murphy57 wrote: »

That's really insightful. Do you want to expand on why you believe Ireland wouldve had a flat 2.6% mortality rate at all ages with no restriction (which was the post I replied to)

Or why there arent 8 million deaths in the US based on the same models the projected 100k+ deaths here?

You're the one making the claim of 7k deaths instead of 4k.

Feel free to expand on your figures. Otherwise it's bullsh*t!

Hellrazer wrote: »

Exactly. In another thread Ive laid out the figures for 7 different countries.

The reality of it is that covid 19 kills 0.54 - 0.6% of over 65s and 0.008% of those under 65 and 92% of all deaths have occurred in over 65s

Today we are sitting at 4396 deaths. 4044 of them are in over 65s (approximately @92%)

So lets be reasonable - weve a population of 5.4 million. For us to have 100k deaths then every single person in the country would have to catch covid @ a death rate of 0.5%
That give us 108k deaths. Our death rate is right in line with the models 0.54% of 700000 (over 65s) @ 3780 deaths. Were probably closer to a death rate of 5.8% in over 65s.

Now take the under 65s - 4.7million @ 0.008% - That give us 376 deaths assuming every one of those 4.7 million catch it.

Theres no way in anyones models would we have 100k deaths.

This is going to max out at around 5000 deaths if all the vaccines work.

Restrictions haven't saved 95.000 people from dying.

This disease isn't going to expand predictably if let run rampant.

That's not counting the 100% certainty that health systems will collapse.

That's not figuring that X amount dying will continue happening. 10k deaths every year, not just one year. And who's to say it would be so low?

Look at this latest craziness with the still births. If true, what are pregnant women to do, lock themselves up for 9 months, and that will be "the norm" going forward?

This architecture of this virus implies that surprises are going to keep come by thick and fast, and none will be good.

This "vaccinate and pray" approach is really starting to agitate me. I don't think it's going to come close to fixing this thing.

I also know that staying locked up is ridiculous.

I also know that simply letting the thing run wild is crazy, "accepting" the reverse trend of humanity, having people's life expectancy getting shorter and all other morbidities increasing is completely unacceptable.


There is basically nothing on the cards that's acceptable and somebody somewhere is going to have to re-think this bullshyt asap.