When will it all end?

timmyntc · 03-03-2021 10:58AM

NIMAN wrote: »

I too think we should be open come the summer onwards, but it was worrying that nphet mentioned autumn and likely increased cases in one of its pressers last week.

I remember Fergal Bowers mentioning it last week.

Well yeah of course, summer should have lowest spread due to good weather and people socialising outdoors, (pretty much the best ventilated environment we have).

Its expected that as weather cools, people socialise indoors more and viruses spread more. Its aa moot point though - by that stage vaccinations should stop 90% of at risk population from needing hospitalisation should they get the virus. As vaccinations pick up, case numbers become less and less of a relevant metric.

bucketybuck · 03-03-2021 10:59AM

Tazz T wrote: »

While I'm confident that we are nearing the end of this (as soon as May) there will be a blip (not a wave) during flu season. Last year's xmas will very possibly have been more 'meaningful' than the coming one.

Things like this are why it is not a conspiracy theory to be concerned about the governments motives going forward.

By winter everybody will be vaccinated. Its worth repeating, by the year end everybody will have had a covid 19 vaccination.

Assuming that fact, if there is a lockdown next winter then there can only be one of two reasons for it:
- The vaccines didn't work
- The government are using the lockdown for non covid reasons.

As I said yesterday, the overton window has shifted, there is now precedent for using lockdowns to address a "health crisis", it is no longer unthinkable to take away from one section of society under the guise of helping another. And it has also been demonstrated that not only will the Irish public accept this, but that a sizeable minority will defend every single part of the governments response to their last breath.

In this kite flying country we are now seeing a lot of kites regarding lockdowns at winter, but if the vaccines work then why on earth would a lockdown ever be needed again?

Like a lot of things this past year, I don't expect a lot of people on here to seriously consider the implications of that at all.

03-03-2021 11:05AM

bucketybuck wrote: »

Things like this are why it is not a conspiracy theory to be concerned about the governments motives going forward.

By winter everybody will be vaccinated. Its worth repeating, by the year end everybody will have had a covid 19 vaccination.

Assuming that fact, if there is a lockdown next winter then there can only be one of two reasons for it:
- The vaccines didn't work
- The government are using the lockdown for non covid reasons.

As I said yesterday, the overton window has shifted, there is now precedent for using lockdowns to address a "health crisis", it is no longer unthinkable to take away from one section of society under the guise of helping another. And it has also been demonstrated that not only will the Irish public accept this, but that a sizeable minority will defend every single part of the governments response to their last breath.

In this kite flying country we are now seeing a lot of kites regarding lockdowns at winter, but if the vaccines work then why on earth would a lockdown ever be needed again?

Like a lot of things this past year, I don't expect a lot of people on here to seriously consider the implications of that at all.

I knew from the get-go that a dangerous precedent was being set. Lockdowns have been normalised. But anyone who raised concerns was dismissed as a conspiracy theorist.

Scotty # · 03-03-2021 11:11AM

bucketybuck wrote: »

By winter everybody will be vaccinated. Its worth repeating, by the year end everybody will have had a covid 19 vaccination.

20% won't be offered it, under 18's
a further 15-30% will refuse it.

This leaves somewhere between 56% and 68% vaccinated. Maximum. Unless we can convince a lot of that 15-30% group to get vaccinated. Which I think we will do in the form of requirements to travel, indoor mass gatherings, etc.

bucketybuck wrote: »

Assuming that fact, if there is a lockdown next winter then there can only be one of two reasons for it:
- The vaccines didn't work
- The government are using the lockdown for non covid reasons.

- New variants
- Not enough people get vacc'ed - (The single most likely reason).

the kelt · 03-03-2021 11:14AM

bucketybuck wrote: »

Things like this are why it is not a conspiracy theory to be concerned about the governments motives going forward.

By winter everybody will be vaccinated. Its worth repeating, by the year end everybody will have had a covid 19 vaccination.

Assuming that fact, if there is a lockdown next winter then there can only be one of two reasons for it:
- The vaccines didn't work
- The government are using the lockdown for non covid reasons.

As I said yesterday, the overton window has shifted, there is now precedent for using lockdowns to address a "health crisis", it is no longer unthinkable to take away from one section of society under the guise of helping another. And it has also been demonstrated that not only will the Irish public accept this, but that a sizeable minority will defend every single part of the governments response to their last breath.

In this kite flying country we are now seeing a lot of kites regarding lockdowns at winter, but if the vaccines work then why on earth would a lockdown ever be needed again?

Like a lot of things this past year, I don't expect a lot of people on here to seriously consider the implications of that at all.

I agree, mentioning lockdown being used to reduce waiting lists for example was a bit of a shot across the bows of the nation.

The only thing to remember is as soon as the money ends, this ends, thats why it will be key to keep an eye on our EU associates and what theyre doing.

If other countries in the EU are opened up and getting back to normal the game is up. If Europe has a certain % of population vaccinated and can get through winter without lockdowns on that basis why whould the tax payers across these countries fund lockdown in Ireland just because the health service in this country is an absolute shambles and NPHET eye an opportunity using free money to eradicate waiting lists and reduce the pre COVID overcrowding theres always been

HansKroenke · 03-03-2021 11:16AM

CollectThat wrote: »

Won't financial considerations be the reason for the ending of all restrictions after vaccines? We can't afford to keep all these supports to businesses, we will have to pay the bill eventually. Talk of Social Distancing for years, that would never work in bars / restaurants. It wouldn't be financially feasible for them to open if only (lets say) 50% of their usual capacity can be used. They can afford it now since 80% of staff wages are paid for by supports. Once this is removed we'll have to allow a return to normal practices.

This is an excellent point. If places have to limit numbers for whatever reason, they won't make as much money so the government will have to step in and keep helping them pay their rates, rents, furloughed employees. It will not be possible to have the cake in the form any sort of restrictions which limit the ability of a business to trade while at the same time eat it by way of unwinding the supports of rent and rates breaks, debt forgiveness, employee income payments etc.

I think what happens in the UK is going to be a good guide for what happens here as they are looking to get ahead of us and the EU with easing due to the aggressive vaccination targets. If social distancing and masks are reduced to just guidance rather than being mandated by law over there, then we will see in the coming 3/4 months what is likely to occur here. Texas has now fully done away with masks and social distancing, the 2nd most populated state in the USA. This gives me hope that all restrictions will be fully done away with once the covid hospital and death numbers collapse due to widespread vaccinations.

03-03-2021 11:17AM

Scotty # wrote: »

20% won't be offered it, under 18's
a further 15-30% will refuse it.

This leaves somewhere between 56% and 68% vaccinated. Maximum. Unless we can convince a lot of that 15-30% group to get vaccinated. Which I think we will do in the form of requirements to travel, indoor mass gatherings, etc.

- New variants
- Not enough people get vacc'ed - (The single most likely reason).

You keep posting this yet all polls so far show that take up will be higher than that in Ireland. Beginning to think you aren't exactly posting in good faith.

timmyntc · 03-03-2021 11:17AM

Scotty # wrote: »

20% won't be offered it, under 18's
a further 15-30% will refuse it.

This leaves somewhere between 56% and 68% vaccinated. Maximum. Unless we can convince a lot of that 15-30% group to get vaccinated. Which I think we will do in the form of requirements to travel, indoor mass gatherings, etc.

- New variants
- Not enough people get vacc'ed - (The single most likely reason).

Under 18s are at the least risk from the virus, and also have less transmission of the virus relative to older cohorts.

The main point though is its not about case numbers its hospitalisations & deaths. It doesnt matter if we dont vaccinate everyone, so long as we vaccinate those most at risk from the virus. Once we do that, hospital admissions will fall off a cliff. We can have 1000s of cases a day and barely a trickle will be admitted to hospital.

NIMAN · 03-03-2021 11:18AM

timmyntc wrote: »

Under 18s are at the least risk from the virus, and also have less transmission of the virus relative to older cohorts.

Are under 18s even on the list to be vaccinated?

I thought I read that the vaccines are only approved for use in 18+.

03-03-2021 11:23AM

timmyntc wrote: »

Under 18s are at the least risk from the virus, and also have less transmission of the virus relative to older cohorts.

The main point though is its not about case numbers its hospitalisations & deaths. It doesnt matter if we dont vaccinate everyone, so long as we vaccinate those most at risk from the virus. Once we do that, hospital admissions will fall off a cliff. We can have 1000s of cases a day and barely a trickle will be admitted to hospital.

But people are obsessed with case numbers. That's the problem. 2,000 cases with zero context sounds scary. And don't think RTÉ won't continue to scare people with case numbers. Too much damage has been done at this stage. Do people think people who walk to the other side of the road to avoid passing other people are suddenly going to snap out of it and go back to walking past people on the footpath? They might, but it'll take years.

timmyntc · 03-03-2021 11:25AM

Deleted User wrote: »

But people are obsessed with case numbers. That's the problem. 2,000 cases with zero context sounds scary. And don't think RTÉ won't continue to scare people with case numbers. Too much damage has been done at this stage. Do people think people who walk to the other side of the road to avoid passing other people are suddenly going to snap out of it and go back to walking past people on the footpath? They might, but it'll take years.

Once people are vaccinated they wont give a flying ****. It's seen as immunity and you can do what you want and see who you want.

There of course will still be the odd curtain twitchers, but majority will be fed up at that stage. At end of the day compliance was mostly out of fear & selfishness, so take away a persons fear of covid and they wont comply any more.

bucketybuck · 03-03-2021 11:28AM

Scotty # wrote: »

20% won't be offered it, under 18's
a further 15-30% will refuse it.

This leaves somewhere between 56% and 68% vaccinated. Maximum. Unless we can convince a lot of that 15-30% group to get vaccinated. Which I think we will do in the form of requirements to travel, indoor mass gatherings, etc.

Thats nice and all, but actually irrelevant.

We do not need everybody to be vaccinated, we just need the vulnerable to be vaccinated. And the logic behind that is so blindingly obvious that I see no need to explain it.

Comments such as yours are exactly the sort of thing I am talking about. If next winter we are still using cases among healthy people as justification for lockdowns then we could no longer deny that the decision makers are not acting honestly.

03-03-2021 11:28AM

timmyntc wrote: »

Once people are vaccinated they wont give a flying ****. It's seen as immunity and you can do what you want and see who you want.

There of course will still be the odd curtain twitchers, but majority will be fed up at that stage. At end of the day compliance was mostly out of fear & selfishness, so take away a persons fear of covid and they wont comply any more.

I hope you're right, but I don't share your optimism. If RTÉ continue to produce scary looking graphs about case numbers, which they will, loads of people will continue to be terrified.

I don't see NPHET exiting stage left in a hurry. They have taken everything from us. Our freedom, our dignity, our sense of worth. It's an astonishing reality.

Our freedoms are fundamental.

HansKroenke · 03-03-2021 11:31AM

bucketybuck wrote: »

Thats nice and all, but actually irrelevant.

We do not need everybody to be vaccinated, we just need the vulnerable to be vaccinated. And the logic behind that is so blindingly obvious that I see no need to explain it.

Comments such as yours are exactly the sort of thing I am talking about. If next winter we are still using cases among healthy people as justification for lockdowns then we could no longer deny that the decision makers are not acting honestly.

This.

Responder XY · 03-03-2021 11:32AM

Scotty # wrote: »

20% won't be offered it, under 18's
a further 15-30% will refuse it.

This leaves somewhere between 56% and 68% vaccinated. Maximum. Unless we can convince a lot of that 15-30% group to get vaccinated. Which I think we will do in the form of requirements to travel, indoor mass gatherings, etc.

- New variants
- Not enough people get vacc'ed - (The single most likely reason).

Firstly, testing is ongoing on U-18s, very likely that by the time we get to them, at least one type of vaccine will be approved.

Secondly, as someone pointed out - surveys are showing that take up in Ireland will be much higher than the 70-85% range you are saying it will be. More like 90% +

Finally, the population in general will not accept further restrictions because some idiots are refusing a vaccine. Once the vaccine is available to all, the restrictions will have to be lifted, regardless of weather some people have chosen not to get it.

bucketybuck · 03-03-2021 11:35AM

Deleted User wrote: »

They have taken everything from us.

Its worse, we gave it to them.

03-03-2021 11:36AM

Responder XY wrote: »

Firstly, testing is ongoing on U-18s, very likely that by the time we get to them, at least one type of vaccine will be approved.

Secondly, as someone pointed out - surveys are showing that take up in Ireland will be much higher than the 70-85% range you are saying it will be. More like 90% +

Finally, the population in general will not accept further restrictions because some idiots are refusing a vaccine. Once the vaccine is available to all, the restrictions will have to be lifted, regardless of weather some people have chosen not to get it.

I hope you're right, but where is the evidence to suggest that the population would not accept further restrictions? The public has fully supported draconian restrictions for the guts of a year. And, as I keep saying, there's no opposition, in the media or in politics. Who's going to push for an end to restrictions? Are millions of people going to protest?

03-03-2021 11:37AM

bucketybuck wrote: »

Its worse, we gave it to them.

You're right. And not so much as a whimper.

FlubberJones · 03-03-2021 11:37AM

Responder XY wrote: »

Firstly, testing is ongoing on U-18s, very likely that by the time we get to them, at least one type of vaccine will be approved.

Secondly, as someone pointed out - surveys are showing that take up in Ireland will be much higher than the 70-85% range you are saying it will be. More like 90% +

Finally, the population in general will not accept further restrictions because some idiots are refusing a vaccine. Once the vaccine is available to all, the restrictions will have to be lifted, regardless of weather some people have chosen not to get it.

have to agree with the last statement, if they refuse it so **** them, if they get sick and even if they die they had a chance at some protection and declined.
The rest of us, take the vaccine and get back to normal lives.. which I for one simply can't wait for and will not accept restrictions because some prick thinks the vaccine is a conspiracy or some other ****e

HansKroenke · 03-03-2021 11:41AM

FlubberJones wrote: »

have to agree with the last statement, if they refuse it so **** them, if they get sick and even if they die they had a chance at some protection and declined.
The rest of us, take the vaccine and get back to normal lives.. which I for one simply can't wait for and will not accept restrictions because some prick thinks the vaccine is a conspiracy or some other ****e

I also take this attitude with those that eat meat and clog up our health service with their diseases as a direct result of doing so as well as with smokers and drinkers and even obese people. It's their choice but fcuk them and their health, they should know the consequences. Fear of them clogging up our hospitals and taking away covid resources is not enough of a justification for me to have restrictions imposed on me.

El_Duderino 09 · 03-03-2021 11:42AM

Scotty # wrote: »

We're doing better than most countries.

But we have kinda flat-lined at this stage. It's going to take us a long long time to get to double digits but at least we're going in the right direction. Plenty others are not.

Worth noting... the correlation between 'cases' and hospital cases' is changing as more and more vaccines are given. So the numbers above are not as bad as they would have been if this were a few months ago. Hopefully anyway.

That's really interesting. Spain has had the most dramatic change on the graph. What have they been doing in the last month?

Likewise what have Italy, France and Poland been doing in the last month that has caused their cases to rise?

Scotty # · 03-03-2021 11:48AM

AdamD wrote: »

You keep posting this yet all polls so far show that take up will be higher than that in Ireland. Beginning to think you aren't exactly posting in good faith.

People keep saying 'everyone will be vaccinated'. Everyone won't.

bucketybuck · 03-03-2021 11:51AM

FlubberJones wrote: »

have to agree with the last statement, if they refuse it so **** them, if they get sick and even if they die they had a chance at some protection and declined.

It comes back to something that has been ignored for nearly a year now.

Adult conversations about death.

People get sick and die all the time, it happens, a friend of mine died at the weekend, cancer, mid 40's, very sad but it happened and thats life.

Too many people have blinded themselves to that fact, now they are scared to pass people on the street in case they catch a bug and die. Such mindsets are not compatible with living, they are childish and narrow minded.

It was a relief to hear that UK minister acknowledging that people would die from covid but that society needed to open up anyway, hopefully now that will seep into the mindset elsewhere and we finally start taking a rational approach to all things covid.

timmyntc · 03-03-2021 11:51AM

Scotty # wrote: »

People keep saying 'everyone will be vaccinated'. Everyone won't.

The vulnerable will and thats all that matters. Once hospital admissions are at a controlled level we should be able to resume normal life.

El_Duderino 09 · 03-03-2021 11:58AM

NIMAN wrote: »

Are under 18s even on the list to be vaccinated?

I thought I read that the vaccines are only approved for use in 18+.

As it stands the under 18s cant be vaccinated because the vaccine hasn't been tested on them yet. The trials are beginning for some groups of children now from 12-17 in various announcements I've seen) and they hope to have approval to start vaccinating those children by the end of the year.

This leads to a conflation between "everybody" meaning the whole population, "everybody" meaning the adult population and "everybody" meaning the adult population minus the people who will refuse the vaccine. So some people say "everybody" and mean 100% of the population and others say "everybody" and actually mean 60ish%

The important thing is that they are starting to do the trials. It just might not happen as fast as we want.

gozunda · 03-03-2021 12:27PM

patnor1011 wrote: »

Well, some people can stick with what they see on TV and reading on ESRI studies.
Other people like me continued to work and meet with people during the course of their work. I get it, if someone sit in home waiting for daily count being announced on TV they can get a little out of touch with reality of what people really think or want. For that you need to meet people, talk to them and then you may realize that studies and polls were many times wrong.
So I would disregard vague anonymous studies and polls which are mostly designed to fit expectations of people who conduct them.

While I got way more vaccines than most of the people here since I came from country where vaccination was mandatory and involved way more vaccines than is the norm in Ireland, I am pretty much sure I do not need this one.
As far as covid goes majority of the people would get more benefit simply by changing diet and lifestyle than getting this particular vaccine.

So let me see from that:

Yourself:
Works, meets people, doesn't watch TV, highly vaccinated, has talked to everyone in the country, In touch with reality, Knows more about other people opinions here than the ERSI . Medical expert on infectious disease control.

Others:
Watch TV, don't work, don't meet others, dont talk to others, out of touch with reality. Wrongly accept research carried out by the ERSI etc. Know nothing about anything. Need to change diet and lifestyle rather than get vaccine.

Lol. OK so ...

Tazz T · 03-03-2021 12:29PM

Scotty # wrote: »

20% won't be offered it, under 18's
a further 15-30% will refuse it.

This leaves somewhere between 56% and 68% vaccinated. Maximum. Unless we can convince a lot of that 15-30% group to get vaccinated. Which I think we will do in the form of requirements to travel, indoor mass gatherings, etc.

- New variants
- Not enough people get vacc'ed - (The single most likely reason).

Interestingly, there's a piece on Newstalk a few moments ago saying that uptake of the Astrazenaca is just 50% in Germany and 25% in France, with people viewing it as 'second class' and with a higher chance of side effects. Even more worryingly, many healthcare/frontline workers aren't accepting it.

There will be a higher take up here because we have stricter restrictions and people will just about do anything to get out of them at this
stage.

But yeah, this will definitely be used as an excuse for continued restrictions/lockdowns come winter. Nothing conspiracy theory about it like others have suggested, simply a government that doesn't want to get it wrong and has applied overly cautious/disproportional restrictions all along. This won't change and may even get more disproportional during the summer.

Dickie10 · 03-03-2021 12:45PM

interesting to see a lot more talk about the cost to the economy that covid is having on irish media, i think this points to end coming, cant see them giving out PUP money after end of june. thats why they will open everything up. just on topic of nightclubs, is there any reason why nightclubs wouldnt open along with gyms/cinemas and other pubs/restaurants?

bucketybuck · 03-03-2021 12:49PM

Dickie10 wrote: »

is there any reason why nightclubs wouldnt open along with gyms/cinemas and other pubs/restaurants?

If the vaccine is available and demonstrated to protect vulnerable people, then there is no need for any restrictions at all, never mind getting into picking and choosing what is closed and what isn't.

If the vaccine doesn't work that is a different question altogether.

Having a vaccine available that protects the vulnerable but still locking down because of vague fears about the future? That is bull****.

El_Duderino 09 · 03-03-2021 12:52PM

Dickie10 wrote: »

interesting to see a lot more talk about the cost to the economy that covid is having on irish media, i think this points to end coming, cant see them giving out PUP money after end of june. thats why they will open everything up. just on topic of nightclubs, is there any reason why nightclubs wouldnt open along with gyms/cinemas and other pubs/restaurants?

Nightclubs opening would depend on whether we still need social distancing or not. Nightclub are one of the places where people go to act foolish and shake off a lot of the normal rules of the rest of normal life. I wouldn't expect anyone to adhere to distancing rules in a nightclub. So I'd say it will come down to whether we still need distancing or not.