When will it all end?

JMNolan · 02-03-2021 02:25PM

Israel lifting more restrictions this week

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/1614631163-israel-to-lift-more-coronavirus-restrictions-on-march-7

including "Those holding the contentious Green Passports, which can be obtained online one week after receiving the second vaccine jab, will be able to opt for indoor dining as well"

Deeper Blue · 02-03-2021 02:27PM

Scotty # wrote: »

Also the figures are way off. Israel has vacc'ed over 4.5m

They have but i was quoting from a study that had looked at 1.82 million of those

02-03-2021 03:39PM

We have to get back to normal after vaccines.

If not, things will start getting really bad. Big companies going under and people defaulting on mortgages etc. We’re not a million miles away with the news yesterday from BOI and Aer Lingus.

And then a respiratory illness won’t seem so bad when that happens.

Multipass · 02-03-2021 03:44PM

JMNolan wrote: »

Israel lifting more restrictions this week

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/1614631163-israel-to-lift-more-coronavirus-restrictions-on-march-7

including "Those holding the contentious Green Passports, which can be obtained online one week after receiving the second vaccine jab, will be able to opt for indoor dining as well"

Hope we don’t see that here - we’d have all those most at risk from covid dining out, while those at least risk are barred, as they wait for vaccines. Insane.

JMNolan · 02-03-2021 03:45PM

Multipass wrote: »

Hope we don’t see that here - we’d have all those most at risk from covid dining out, while those at least risk are barred, as they wait for vaccines. Insane.

Ah no, those without the two jabs can eat outdoors at the restaurants.

Multipass · 02-03-2021 03:47PM

JMNolan wrote: »

Ah no, those without the two jabs can eat outdoors at the restaurants.

In Ireland? Joy.

JMNolan · 02-03-2021 03:52PM

It can be done well, jabbed inside, the great unjabbed outside.

Kunta Kinte · 02-03-2021 04:01PM

Deleted User wrote: »

We have to get back to normal after vaccines.

If not, things will start getting really bad. Big companies going under and people defaulting on mortgages etc. We’re not a million miles away with the news yesterday from BOI and Aer Lingus.

And then a respiratory illness won’t seem so bad when that happens.

You forgot to insert the word "mild" before the respiratory illness part of your comment. :rolleyes: In any case footfall in BOI as in all the other banks had been in decline long before Covid -19 ever appeared with online banking becoming more and more widespread. It was only a matter of time before this decision to close branches would have been made. The virus has just brought it forward a little. Other banks will be announcing the same soon enough too, whether restrictions are still in place or not.

02-03-2021 04:32PM

Kunta Kinte wrote: »

You forgot to insert the word "mild" before the respiratory illness part of your comment. :rolleyes: In any case footfall in BOI as in all the other banks had been in decline long before Covid -19 ever appeared with online banking becoming more and more widespread. It was only a matter of time before this decision to close branches would have been made. The virus has just brought it forward a little. Other banks will be announcing the same soon enough too, whether restrictions are still in place or not.

That’s funny because there was long queues in my town for all bank branches just the other day.

Lots of people still go to branches.

I worked in AIB for some time as well.

HansKroenke · 02-03-2021 06:23PM

Ah yes, the great ignorance of the response "covid just accelerated trends away from bad businesses". Completely untrue of course given businesses have been told to close and not even trade by the government, not due to behavioral changes of the public as a result of the pandemic. Why would the government even impose restrictions if people were adapting their lifestyles anyway to deal with covid?

franciscanpunk · 02-03-2021 06:32PM

Deeper Blue wrote: »

To those saying this will go on forever:

Out of 1,820,000 vaccinated people in Israel, 122 were hospitalised. Many of these would've been in the older age groups. That's 0.0067% of cases ending up in hospital. For context, 0.0067% of our entire population is 328.

Furthermore, all vaccines have been shown to significantly reduce hospitalisations despite the different variants.

So tell me again why this will go on beyond this year? And don't give me some hypothetical killer mutation BS

That makes logical sense if them figures accurate, not disputing just not something i know.

this country does not seem to have accepted that vaccines significantly reduce risk of hospitalisation or death regardless of vaccines.. you heard MM call the UK strain of tye virus, the main strain here, a 'new virus'.

seansouth36 · 02-03-2021 08:09PM

Deleted User wrote: »

That’s funny because there was long queues in my town for all bank branches just the other day.

Lots of people still go to branches.

I worked in AIB for some time as well.

You seeing a long queue outside a few bank branches doesn't prove anything aside from the fact that "lots of people go to branches" which is obvious. The fact that you used to work in AIB is also totally meaningless. The number of bank branches across Europe fell by 21% between 2008 and 2018 - nothing to with COVID, everything to do with the rise of mobile banking. The same has happened with online shopping decimating bricks and mortar retail in the past 5-10 years.

PTH2009 · 02-03-2021 08:45PM

One thing i am happy about is there will be no obligation to have a €9 meal when the pubs reopen. The logic of that was so political and made SFA difference only making the night more expensive

Seems to be a bit of good news coming from the vaccine effectiveness and the numbers going down in the hospitals. Lets hope its not just a case of things going right 1 day then going to **** the next.

Be a little ironic if things were in great shape this Paddy's Day regarding numbers etc but have a feeling they could boost them a little to instill a bit of fear to stop complacency

CowboyTed · 02-03-2021 08:54PM

Here what it looks like...

Today was a decent day 359... That brings us to 17% drop for the previous 7 days...
This is every Saturuday 7 day average compared withthe previous week

02/01/2021 1649 74%
09/01/2021 6263 280%
16/01/2021 4165 -34%
23/01/2021 2349 -44%
30/01/2021 1307 -44%
06/02/2021 1056 -19%
13/02/2021 897 -15%
20/02/2021 808 -10%
27/02/2021 783 -18%
06/03/2021 650 -17%
13/03/2021 539 -17%
20/03/2021 448 -17%
27/03/2021 372 -17%
03/04/2021 308 -17%
10/04/2021 256 -17%
17/04/2021 212 -17%
24/04/2021 176 -17%
01/05/2021 146 -17%
08/05/2021 121 -17%
15/05/2021 101 -17%
22/05/2021 84 -17%
29/05/2021 69 -17%
05/06/2021 58 -17%

On 5 April would 275 be good enough for us to get a lift Level 5?

Would the pubs open with 58 cases a day on the 5/6/21?

PTH2009 · 02-03-2021 09:06PM

CowboyTed wrote: »

Here what it looks like...

Today was a decent day 359... That brings us to 17% drop for the previous 7 days...
This is every Saturuday 7 day average compared withthe previous week

02/01/2021 1649 74%
09/01/2021 6263 280%
16/01/2021 4165 -34%
23/01/2021 2349 -44%
30/01/2021 1307 -44%
06/02/2021 1056 -19%
13/02/2021 897 -15%
20/02/2021 808 -10%
27/02/2021 783 -18%
06/03/2021 650 -17%
13/03/2021 539 -17%
20/03/2021 448 -17%
27/03/2021 372 -17%
03/04/2021 308 -17%
10/04/2021 256 -17%
17/04/2021 212 -17%
24/04/2021 176 -17%
01/05/2021 146 -17%
08/05/2021 121 -17%
15/05/2021 101 -17%
22/05/2021 84 -17%
29/05/2021 69 -17%
05/06/2021 58 -17%

On 5 April would 275 be good enough for us to get a lift Level 5?

Would the pubs open with 58 cases a day on the 5/6/21?

Hard to know but we all know there an easy target and made the fall guy for numbers rising

The numbers were not overly low when they briefly opened the end of September 2020 (the wet pubs)

CollectThat · 02-03-2021 09:23PM

Won't financial considerations be the reason for the ending of all restrictions after vaccines? We can't afford to keep all these supports to businesses, we will have to pay the bill eventually. Talk of Social Distancing for years, that would never work in bars / restaurants. It wouldn't be financially feasible for them to open if only (lets say) 50% of their usual capacity can be used. They can afford it now since 80% of staff wages are paid for by supports. Once this is removed we'll have to allow a return to normal practices.

02-03-2021 09:26PM

There's going to be a slight increase in cases when the schools go back. Completely meaningless and will cause basically no problems in reality but will be used to justify some panic and distraction while we continue to piss-arse about with the vaccines.

CowboyTed · 02-03-2021 09:47PM

PTH2009 wrote: »

Hard to know but we all know there an easy target and made the fall guy for numbers rising

The numbers were not overly low when they briefly opened the end of September 2020 (the wet pubs)

Full numbers for context:
Date 7 day average Percentage Increase
14/03/2020 16 479%
21/03/2020 94 496%
28/03/2020 233 148%
04/04/2020 313 34%
11/04/2020 429 37%
18/04/2020 574 34%
25/04/2020 536 -7%
02/05/2020 374 -30%
09/05/2020 226 -39%
16/05/2020 184 -19%
23/05/2020 76 -59%
30/05/2020 53 -31%
06/06/2020 41 -22%
13/06/2020 18 -56%
20/06/2020 14 -23%
27/06/2020 10 -29%
04/07/2020 11 10%
11/07/2020 18 66%
18/07/2020 21 17%
25/07/2020 17 -20%
01/08/2020 35 104%
08/08/2020 76 118%
15/08/2020 80 4%
22/08/2020 105 32%
29/08/2020 118 12%
05/09/2020 118 0%
12/09/2020 171 45%
19/09/2020 263 54%
26/09/2020 293 11%
03/10/2020 448 53%
10/10/2020 580 29%
17/10/2020 1004 73%
24/10/2020 1065 6%
31/10/2020 773 -27%
07/11/2020 501 -35%
14/11/2020 397 -21%
21/11/2020 383 -3%
28/11/2020 264 -31%
05/12/2020 293 11%
12/12/2020 265 -9%
19/12/2020 435 64%
26/12/2020 949 118%
02/01/2021 1649 74%
09/01/2021 6263 280%
16/01/2021 4165 -34%
23/01/2021 2349 -44%
30/01/2021 1307 -44%
06/02/2021 1056 -19%
13/02/2021 897 -15%
20/02/2021 808 -10%
27/02/2021 783 -18%
06/03/2021 650 -17%
13/03/2021 539 -17%
20/03/2021 448 -17%
27/03/2021 372 -17%
03/04/2021 308 -17%
10/04/2021 256 -17%
17/04/2021 212 -17%
24/04/2021 176 -17%
01/05/2021 146 -17%
08/05/2021 121 -17%
15/05/2021 101 -17%
22/05/2021 84 -17%
29/05/2021 69 -17%
05/06/2021 58 -17%
12/06/2021 48 -17%
19/06/2021 40 -17%
26/06/2021 33 -17%
03/07/2021 27 -17%
10/07/2021 23 -17%
17/07/2021 19 -17%
24/07/2021 16 -17%
31/07/2021 13 -17%
07/08/2021 11 -17%
14/08/2021 9 -17%

This seems to be a lot more stubborn this time...

If we get -30% average we would be 92 by 10/4/21 and single digits by 29/5/21...

dublin_paul · 02-03-2021 09:51PM

CowboyTed wrote: »

This seems to be a lot more stubborn this time...

Because people are tired of this, the lower it goes the lower compliance gets. We won't be single digits until mass vaccination (if even then). Open up!

El_Duderino 09 · 02-03-2021 09:52PM

CowboyTed wrote: »

Here what it looks like...

Today was a decent day 359... That brings us to 17% drop for the previous 7 days...
This is every Saturuday 7 day average compared withthe previous week

02/01/2021 1649 74%
09/01/2021 6263 280%
16/01/2021 4165 -34%
23/01/2021 2349 -44%
30/01/2021 1307 -44%
06/02/2021 1056 -19%
13/02/2021 897 -15%
20/02/2021 808 -10%
27/02/2021 783 -18%
06/03/2021 650 -17%
13/03/2021 539 -17%
20/03/2021 448 -17%
27/03/2021 372 -17%
03/04/2021 308 -17%
10/04/2021 256 -17%
17/04/2021 212 -17%
24/04/2021 176 -17%
01/05/2021 146 -17%
08/05/2021 121 -17%
15/05/2021 101 -17%
22/05/2021 84 -17%
29/05/2021 69 -17%
05/06/2021 58 -17%

On 5 April would 275 be good enough for us to get a lift Level 5?

Would the pubs open with 58 cases a day on the 5/6/21?

I don’t understand what I’m seeing here. How is 783 an 18% reduction on 808? Isn’t it more like a 3% reduction on the previous week?

02-03-2021 10:59PM

CollectThat wrote: »

Won't financial considerations be the reason for the ending of all restrictions after vaccines?

Not so sure. A high, but manageable, while cheap money is still available, level of personal and national debt is going to be a reality for many generations to come in this country. A few billion more in the form of PUP payments etc, isn't going to make that much difference. New variants of the virus will have an impact on how restrictions are managed going forward. Moreover, the HSE, and it's ability, or inability, to manage the backlog of non-Covid related issues, is going to play a big part in it. This country will be back in lockdown in December of this year, and Jan 2022, even if everyone in the country has been vaccinated. The HSE will not be able to cope with the usual winter rush, and the backlog caused by Covid.

Deleted User wrote: »

There's going to be a slight increase in cases when the schools go back. Completely meaningless and will cause basically no problems in reality but will be used to justify some panic and distraction while we continue to piss-arse about with the vaccines.

They won't blame the schools. The movers and shakers want them open. School are hotbeds for most viruses. Covid is the exception for some reason, according to the powers that be. They'll blame the rest of us for not following the restrictions.

Nqp15hhu · 02-03-2021 11:15PM

With the Northern Irish executive plan of using data and the extended furlough I feel we are in for a rough ride.

Politicans are going to put up a fight to let us out of this lockdown. And you know what? There is no justification. With such low case numbers and vaccinations we should be planning ahead to release the lockdown soon.

These people should not be allowed to control us in such a way, there is no need for this.

Nqp15hhu · 02-03-2021 11:18PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

There's going to be a slight increase in cases when the schools go back. Completely meaningless and will cause basically no problems in reality but will be used to justify some panic and distraction while we continue to piss-arse about with the vaccines.

I am worried about this in Northern Ireland with the use of data. They will use it to extend lockdown.

Scotty # · 02-03-2021 11:28PM

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I don’t understand what I’m seeing here. How is 783 an 18% reduction on 808? Isn’t it more like a 3% reduction on the previous week?

The numbers are correct except for the 18%, that should be 3.09%.

Which means we've gone from 44%, 19%, 15%,10%, to just 3%. Which means we've plateaued more or less. At over 700 cases/week. Very very disappointing.

RGS · 02-03-2021 11:38PM

Imo using data is a better metric than dates however not indicating what data is needed to trigger the adjustment/removal of restrictions does not generate significant buy in.

So we are left with the usual "we are not where we want to be" politician claim to keep restrictions in place on both sides of the border.

Van.Bosch · 02-03-2021 11:49PM

Scotty # wrote: »

The numbers are correct except for the 18%, that should be 3.09%.

Which means we've gone from 44%, 19%, 15%,10%, to just 3%. Which means we've plateaued more or less. At over 700 cases/week. Very very disappointing.

Today’s 7 day average is 623, so we havnt plateaued at over 700 cases a week.

Scotty # · 02-03-2021 11:52PM

Van.Bosch wrote: »

Today’s 7 day average is 623, so we havnt plateaued at over 700 cases a week.

Is the 783 yer man posted for Saturday correct?

Wanderer2010 · 03-03-2021 12:08AM

Taking a leaf from the UK, which have announced a plan to get everything back to normal by end of June, is it not entirely possible that the vaccination will indeed end the pandemic here by year end and any variants can be dealt with by booster shots, similar to the flu?
I know Boris is stupid at times but he must be basing this whole back to normality on some solid science. Their numbers of cases and deaths are dropping and i get the strong impression the UK wont go into lockdown again. He is going to look extremely silly if, by June , life isnt back to normal.

Bit cynical · 03-03-2021 12:17AM

Wanderer2010 wrote: »

Taking a leaf from the UK, which have announced a plan to get everything back to normal by end of June, is it not entirely possible that the vaccination will indeed end the pandemic here by year end and any variants can be dealt with by booster shots, similar to the flu?
I know Boris is stupid at times but he must be basing this whole back to normality on some solid science. Their numbers of cases and deaths are dropping and i get the strong impression the UK wont go into lockdown again. He is going to look extremely silly if, by June , life isnt back to normal.

The problem is that although the vaccines and improved treatments will reduce incidence of the virus to very low numbers and severity it will still exist, and since people still die, some will die with the virus. Though not in the least rational, some people will use this as a pretext to continues restrictions of various sorts for as long as possible.

lee_baby_simms · 03-03-2021 12:25AM

Bit cynical wrote: »

The problem is that although the vaccines and improved treatments will reduce incidence of the virus to very low numbers and severity it will still exist, and since people still die, some will die with the virus. Though not in the least rational, some people will use this as a pretext to continues restrictions of various sorts for as long as possible.

Yes exactly. We’ve been slowly conditioned to accept that any kind of risk from Covid should be avoided at the expense of everything else in society.

Last year as the deaths and hospitalisations flatlined the goal shifted to cases.

I fear that this summer the method of control used will be VARIANTS.

As long as we have an incredibly weak government and the most risk averse, powerful health advisory committee in Europe then it could be a very long road out of this.

We’ll have public buy in for more restrictions. We have a national broadcaster working in tandem with a well organised team of scientific oracles of doom working in shifts to pump out fear on radio and tv every day.

When will it all end?

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