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When will it all end?

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Comments

  • #5162
    Scotty #
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,782 ✭✭✭Scotty #


    hatrickpatrick wrote: »
    What would say is the criteria for either of the aforementioned, though?
    I've no idea. But I know it's not as simple as 'here, we've a few spare ICU beds, let's open the pubs'
    hatrickpatrick wrote: »
    If vaccines can't get us back to mass gatherings, the question of what can.
    I'd say vaccines can for the likes of outdoor sports or concerts. Indoor standing events are probably a different matter though.

    Masks will most likely be part of our future for a while yet . I hope I'm wrong but I'm only going on that we've been told by the health experts.


  • #5163
    El_Duderino 09
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,142 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    SnuggyBear wrote: »
    You reply to one word with more waffle, lol. I just scroll past your walls of waffle.

    If you had read the posts you’d know I was talking about how some people dismiss the information they don’t want to read and now they’re surprised that the situation is more complicated than they thought.

    And you responded by saying you’re going to ignore my posts. You couldn’t’ be a better example of what I’m talking about if you tried.


  • #5164
    gozunda
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,992 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    patnor1011 wrote: »
    I do not know where they do these studies or polls. I do know and meet a lot of people and 9 out of 10 are against restrictions. The only few people who are pro are few who get to work from home but even they long for opening shops, restaurants, and even dangerous virus breeding facilities like hairdressers, gyms and churches. I am surrounded by elderly neighbors and cant see them following restrictions as I see them visiting each other and having family gatherings. I am not convinced there are a lot of people in support of any restrictions and certainly not level 5.

    While it is clear now that vaccination is not going to change much - hints are everywhere so called experts already proclaimed that we can not ease restrictions or lose facemasks even after we will be vaccinated people here still think "we will go back" to what it was pre covid.
    We are not. We are going to be hit with massive overcrowding at hospitals due to year of "time off" where over million of appointments for various other medical conditions and procedures were cancelled since covid era started.

    I have feeling and I am certainly not alone that we actually kicked ourselves in the a®se trying to prevent hospitals to be overwhelmed simply because they actually were overwhelmed before we emptied them because covid. And after a year of this waiting, we can expect several times more people trying to get in with their own problems which were for the most part neglected.
    We tried to prevent overwhelming of already overwhelmed hospitals by overwhelming nursing houses which then resulted in overwhelming funeral directors.

    Was that 9 out of 10 cats by any chance?

    I reckon that's fairly clear you know little about ERSI studies and polls. And no 'feelings' don't generally count.

    You will excuse me if I chose to disregard vague personal anecdotes and generalised anti vaccination sentiment over an ERSI study or expert advice on infection risk thanks all the same.

    If you had taken any time to read what was quoted- you may have noted that it was stated
    Six out of 10 people say sticking with the guidelines is tiresome, but almost 80 per cent believe preventing the spread of Covid-19 is more important than the burden of restrictions

    Prof Pete Lunn, head of the behavioural research unit at the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), said this helped explain how measures of compliance have been rising in recent months, despite the frustrations that people feel.

    “Just because we feel a particular way, does not mean that this feeling dictates our behaviour. Rather, the large majority of people in Ireland support the restrictions and are sticking to them, despite the frustrations.”

    The data also show systematic misperceptions about socially activity, he said.

    Half the adult population does not meet up with anyone outside their household over a 48-hour period, with less than one quarter meeting up with three or more. Yet the more socially active people believe that they are meeting fewer people than average, according to Prof Lunn.

    “There is a clear misperception. Most people believe that others are enjoying more of a social life than they are. Those who are in fact most socially active do not realise this.


    Thanks


  • #5165
    hatrickpatrick
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,798 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    Scotty # wrote: »
    I've no idea. But I know it's not as simple as 'here, we've a few spare ICU beds, let's open the pubs'

    I'd say vaccines can for the likes of outdoor sports or concerts. Indoor standing events are probably a different matter though.

    Masks will most likely be part of our future for a while yet . I hope I'm wrong but I'm only going on that we've been told by the health experts.

    This is where it doesn't make sense to me, though. Why isn't it as simple as "we have the vast majority of the population vaccinated, we can open the pubs"?

    The suggestion that masks etc will be here long after mass vaccination implies that the vaccine is useless - if it won't confer herd immunity once the majority of the population has taken it, then what's the point of the rollout?


  • #5166
    Scotty #
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,782 ✭✭✭Scotty #


    SnuggyBear wrote: »
    So you think 2 people can meet but you reply to me banging on about restrictions and vaccines aren't 100% safe?
    2 people can meet under the current lv 5 restrictions. With or without vaccines. I'm not sure what point you are making?


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  • #5167
    Scotty #
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,782 ✭✭✭Scotty #


    hatrickpatrick wrote: »
    This is where it doesn't make sense to me, though. Why isn't it as simple as "we have the vast majority of the population vaccinated, we can open the pubs"?

    The suggestion that masks etc will be here long after mass vaccination implies that the vaccine is useless - if it won't confer herd immunity once the majority of the population has taken it, then what's the point of the rollout?
    Vaccines don't offer 100% protection. It'd be great if they did but they don't!

    There are still going to be people getting sick with covid after everyone is vaccinated. Hence we will (according to the experts) need to keep some restrictions to prevent numbers getting too high.

    If we get it right, there will be no need for further lockdowns. If we get it wrong, there will.


  • #5168
    SnuggyBear
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 965 ✭✭✭SnuggyBear


    Scotty # wrote: »
    2 people can meet under the current lv 5 restrictions. With or without vaccines. I'm not sure what point you are making?

    Why did you bother replying to my post in the first place? Did you even read what I said in my post before you started creaming yourself over restrictions?


  • #5169
    ek motor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 548 ✭✭✭ek motor


    SnuggyBear wrote: »
    You reply to one word with more waffle, lol. I just scroll past your walls of waffle. I know you think your posting some amazing analysis everytime but it's all waffle.

    The irony.


  • #5170
    Scotty #
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,782 ✭✭✭Scotty #


    SnuggyBear wrote: »
    Why did you bother replying to my post in the first place? Did you even read what I said in my post before you started creaming yourself over restrictions?

    Bye bye


  • #5171
    Irish Stones
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,308 ✭✭✭Irish Stones


    Scotty # wrote: »
    Masks will most likely be part of our future for a while yet . I hope I'm wrong but I'm only going on that we've been told by the health experts.

    This!
    And the "while" is a "long while" in my opinion. And distancing as well.


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  • #5172
    Irish Stones
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,308 ✭✭✭Irish Stones


    Scotty # wrote: »
    Vaccines don't offer 100% protection. It'd be great if they did but they don't!

    There are still going to be people getting sick with covid after everyone is vaccinated. Hence we will (according to the experts) need to keep some restrictions to prevent numbers getting too high.

    If we get it right, there will be no need for further lockdowns. If we get it wrong, there will.


    I get your points, but if, like you say, there will always be someone getting sick with covid even when everyone is vaccinated, then I reckon the restrictions, or most of them will stay forever. So it'll never end?

    Where did I get lost?


  • #5173
    Scotty #
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,782 ✭✭✭Scotty #


    Irish Stones wrote: »
    I get your points, but if, like you say, there will always be someone getting sick with covid even when everyone is vaccinated, then I reckon the restrictions, or most of them will stay forever. So it'll never end?

    Where did I get lost?
    I'm not saying there will always be....

    Vaccines will improve, treatment will improve. We've 21 vaccines in final testing stages at the moment. Some of these may offer much higher efficacy than the current set.

    If all depends on hospitalisations. If we get rid of all restrictions and hospitalisations remain manageable then happy days. 100% normality restored. The current vaccines don't offer this yet though.


  • #5174
    Detour.
    Closed Accounts Posts: 34 ✭Detour.


    Irish Stones wrote: »
    This!
    And the "while" is a "long while" in my opinion. And distancing as well.

    Hopefully as an advisory

    It's going to be complicated getting activities back to normal with the masks on and SD


  • #5175
    ixoy
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 18,045 Mod ✭✭✭✭ixoy


    Scotty # wrote: »
    If all depends on hospitalisations. If we get rid of all restrictions and hospitalisations remain manageable then happy days. 100% normality restored. The current vaccines don't offer this yet though.
    Why do you say that the current vaccines don't give manageable hospitalisations? Especially given nowhere is yet fully vaccinated, in terms of herd immunity, but the likes of Israel are showing huge drops in hospitalisations vs cases.


  • #5176
    bucketybuck
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,030 ✭✭✭✭bucketybuck


    Scotty # wrote: »
    I'd say vaccines can for the likes of outdoor sports or concerts. Indoor standing events are probably a different matter though.

    So everybody being vaccinated still won't be enough to allow indoor events.

    Why can't people see that such a scenario means that vaccines didn't work?

    And if vaccines don't work, then why are we basing our future planning around them?

    It all comes back to the thing that a lot of people in these threads absolutely refuse to countenance, the tricky subject of actually "living with covid".

    Because eventually it needs to happen, eventually society will need to make its peace with the damn thing, and all the people living in fear are doing little but prolong the inevitable.


  • #5177
    Detour.
    Closed Accounts Posts: 34 ✭Detour.


    bucketybuck wrote: »
    So everybody being vaccinated still won't be enough to allow indoor events.

    Why can't people see that such a scenario means that vaccines didn't work?

    And if vaccines don't work, then why are we basing our future planning around them?

    It all comes back to the thing that a lot of people in these threads absolutely refuse to countenance, the tricky subject of actually "living with covid".

    Because eventually it needs to happen, eventually society will need to make its peace with the damn thing, and all the people living in fear are doing little but prolong the inevitable.

    Whatever happens in EU/UK will follow here anyhow

    The way we're living now isn't normal human behavior


  • #5178
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 4,806 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Life couldn’t really continue with social distancing remaining.

    You’d have to wave goodbye to professional sports, music, nightlife and other entertainment.

    It’s also difficult to create life without getting close ;)

    Seriously, cop on lads! We’re not going to stop living permanently.

    Covid death rate is tiny. Will be even smaller with vaccines. Eventually we’ll have an adult conversation and accept deaths/risk

    Sure we don’t have the finances to borrow billions every year.


  • #5179
    El_Duderino 09
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,142 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    Scotty # wrote: »
    I'm not saying there will always be....

    Vaccines will improve, treatment will improve. We've 21 vaccines in final testing stages at the moment. Some of these may offer much higher efficacy than the current set.

    If all depends on hospitalisations. If we get rid of all restrictions and hospitalisations remain manageable then happy days. 100% normality restored. The current vaccines don't offer this yet though.

    Plus we're anticipating lots of people will refuse vaccines but that number might reduce as some people oppose the vaccine in principle but then actually get the vaccine anyway. The number of people refusing the vaccine is an unknown at the moment, but hopefully it goes in the right direction.

    If we end up with restrictions again next winter then there will be a big push to get everyone to get the vaccine. That should bring up the numbers somewhat.


  • #5180
    Irish Stones
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,308 ✭✭✭Irish Stones


    Detour. wrote: »
    Hopefully as an advisory

    It's going to be complicated getting activities back to normal with the masks on and SD


    That's why I keep saying that the "old normal" won't be back, we'll have a new normal, where people learn to do things while distancing, and masks will be part of our daily life at least in many contexts.


  • #5181
    mightyreds
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,893 ✭✭✭mightyreds


    Detour. wrote: »
    Whatever happens in EU/UK will follow here anyhow

    The way we're living now isn't normal human behavior

    This is it, if the north opens and we have a staycation summer, people would be mad to stay down here.
    All that money that people have saved over the lockdown (those fortunate), that the government are eying to kick start the economy being spend up north will be a shock.


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  • #5182
    Le Bruise
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,368 ✭✭✭Le Bruise


    Irish Stones wrote: »
    When will it end?

    In the IT, dr. Ian Norton says it will last not less than 2 to 3 years (and we're halfway), but some countries will not vaccinate till the end 2025, hence the risk could be high for such a long time

    https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/abroad/covid-19-we-have-never-seen-a-pandemic-of-this-scale-that-was-shorter-than-2-3-years-1.4498436

    Ian's views are on the pandemic at a global level. I don't think anyone thought the pandemic would end globally any time soon, as there will be certain third world countries right at the back of the queue for vaccines. Domestically I think we can get back to a good semblance of normality quite quickly....but the situation will be different worldwide, hence the talk of 'vaccine passports' and some other restrictions on travel for a while.

    Trouble is the longer it takes to vaccinate all countries, the more chance of a trickier variant appearing where outbreaks continue to occur.


  • #5183
    hatrickpatrick
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,798 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    Irish Stones wrote: »
    That's why I keep saying that the "old normal" won't be back, we'll have a new normal, where people learn to do things while distancing, and masks will be part of our daily life at least in many contexts.

    How do you suggest that people procreate while distancing? Extraordinarily well-aimed cumshots? :pac:


  • #5184
    bucketybuck
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,030 ✭✭✭✭bucketybuck


    Detour. wrote: »
    Whatever happens in EU/UK will follow here anyhow

    The way we're living now isn't normal human behavior

    I genuinely hope that there comes a time where society looks back and recognises that we should never have allowed ourselves to have been dictated to by a cohort of people living in a state of constant fear. A state of fear whipped up by a media hysteria.

    Because lessons need to be learned from this.


  • #5185
    ELM327
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,122 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Life couldn’t really continue with social distancing remaining.

    You’d have to wave goodbye to professional sports, music, nightlife and other entertainment.

    It’s also difficult to create life without getting close ;)

    Seriously, cop on lads! We’re not going to stop living permanently.

    Covid death rate is tiny. Will be even smaller with vaccines. Eventually we’ll have an adult conversation and accept deaths/risk

    Sure we don’t have the finances to borrow billions every year.


    This is not going to last much longer, vaccines will be rolled out this year, once they are at critical mass (ie anyone who wants/needs vaccine is vaccinated) then normal life returns.


  • #5186
    Irish Stones
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,308 ✭✭✭Irish Stones


    El_Duderino 09 wrote: »
    Plus we're anticipating lots of people will refuse vaccines but that number might reduce as some people oppose the vaccine in principle but then actually get the vaccine anyway. The number of people refusing the vaccine is an unknown at the moment, but hopefully it goes in the right direction.

    If we end up with restrictions again next winter then there will be a big push to get everyone to get the vaccine. That should bring up the numbers somewhat.


    I've just read this morning (can't remember where) that 8% of Irish women and 2% of Irish men wouldn't take the vaccine.
    These numbers are much higher in the rest of EU, topping about 30% in France and about 25% in Italy.


  • #5187
    ELM327
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,122 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    bucketybuck wrote: »
    I genuinely hope that there comes a time where society looks back and recognises that we should never have allowed ourselves to have been dictated to by a cohort of people living in a state of constant fear. A state of fear whipped up by a media hysteria.

    Because lessons need to be learned from this.


    For the world in general I agree.
    But in Ireland, we needed this. We do not have enough ICU beds.


    And THAT shoudl be the learning from this. Redirect spending in health from middle management to increased service.


  • #5188
    Irish Stones
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,308 ✭✭✭Irish Stones


    hatrickpatrick wrote: »
    How do you suggest that people procreate while distancing? Extraordinarily well-aimed cumshots? :pac:


    :pac::pac::pac:
    Well, current studies reveal that new meetings among young are decreasing. Those who had already matched, they are bubbling, I guess, so they will procreate :P


  • #5189
    ELM327
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,122 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    Irish Stones wrote: »
    I've just read this morning (can't remember where) that 8% of Irish women and 2% of Irish men wouldn't take the vaccine.
    These numbers are much higher in the rest of EU, topping about 30% in France and about 25% in Italy.


    This speaks volumes for the quality of our education system vs that in the EU. Our school system gets lambasted but compared to EU, here is a clear demonstrable example of it being better and not creating the ridiculous anti vaxxers.


  • #5190
    bucketybuck
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,030 ✭✭✭✭bucketybuck


    ELM327 wrote: »
    For the world in general I agree.
    But in Ireland, we needed this. We do not have enough ICU beds.


    And THAT shoudl be the learning from this. Redirect spending in health from middle management to increased service.

    Its a nice thought, except that we didn't need covid to tell us that at all, I have been hearing about a trolley crisis every winter I have been on this earth.

    Does this sound familiar?
    Flu death toll rises as Ireland faces five more weeks in the danger zone
    Thats a Daily Mirror headline from Dec 31st 2019.


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  • #5191
    El_Duderino 09
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,142 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    Le Bruise wrote: »
    Ian's views are on the pandemic at a global level. I don't think anyone thought the pandemic would end globally any time soon, as there will be certain third world countries right at the back of the queue for vaccines. Domestically I think we can get back to a good semblance of normality quite quickly....but the situation will be different worldwide, hence the talk of 'vaccine passports' and some other restrictions on travel for a while.

    Trouble is the longer it takes to vaccinate all countries, the more chance of a trickier variant appearing where outbreaks continue to occur.

    I think lots of people haven't even considered how the global view will impact on Ireland domestically. Lots of people think we can just vaccinate and get back to normal. Lots of people think Ireland is doing badly with the vaccination while we're actually in the top 25 few countries in the world by rollout rate. Thinking about complications outside of Ireland such as new variants emerging in countries without a comprehensive vaccination programme, over the next few years, is uncomfortable and lots of people don't want to think about it, so the ignore the implications.


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