When will it all end?

El_Duderino 09 · 02-03-2021 09:16AM

Monster249 wrote: »

Once people are vaccinated, there's no longer a target to aim towards. We have to open up and deal with the fallout. I can understand restrictions like social distancing and masks but we absolutely cannot have another lockdown.

Ok. Imagine we vaccinate as many people as possible (about 80%) in time for winter. In winter the numbers go up, the hospitals will be overrun in the next few weeks with the current trajectory. What would you want the government to do at that point?

Impose more restrictions?
Or do nothing an allow nature to take its course and the hospitals become overrun?
Or would you want them to do something else?

mightyreds · 02-03-2021 09:20AM

the kelt wrote: »

But what if this happens, or that happens, or that other thing happens, thats going to be the next post really.

Lol right on cue

_Kaiser_ · 02-03-2021 09:26AM

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Ok. Imagine we vaccinate as many people as possible (about 80%) in time for winter. In winter the numbers go up, the hospitals will be overrun in the next few weeks with the current trajectory. What would you want the government to do at that point?

Impose more restrictions?
Or do nothing an allow nature to take its course and the hospitals become overrun?
Or would you want them to do something else?

Hospitals have been 'overrun' during winter for years. We didn't lose the plot and lock down the country for it.

People get sick, some people die. It's unfortunate and sad for their loved ones, but it's also part of life.

The REAL question is why is it that, despite ever increased budgets and emergency top-ups every year, the HSE can't provide a service that's fit for purpose and meets the increased and known/expected demand during the winter?

That's what you should be asking.

the kelt · 02-03-2021 09:29AM

franciscanpunk wrote: »

At this stage with leo leaking now no major changes until into May im starting to give up, will try stick it out a while longer but running into 5 months of intense restrictions is pushing the limit. I'm not exactly happy i've had 1 year of my life on stand by but nothing i can do about it now. running into a second year now and with the way ronan glynn is talking about restrictions until at least the end of the year not far off running into a third year is depressing.

What's another year if it was a case we were waiting until the vast majority of people had a at least one dose before we reduce to a minimum then all restrictions once all vaccinated i could agree with that, but the strategy that's been communicated so far does not guarantee or barely indicate this is what we will be doing.

It seems the done thing now is to say if variants ruin our vaccine plan we'll be back to square one and will need to develop new vaccines but surely further variants will develop while these are being developed and circle continues(i heard many virolgists talk about the virus mutating as being the ideal scenario as to survive it needs to develop into a less deadly strain and eventually risk of severe illness n death greatly reduces but this was pre last summer and haven't heard much since)

Communication must be better

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/new-covid-19-plan-an-opportunity-for-communication-reset-varadkar-says-1089465.html

Barely a week later and we have

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/new-covid-19-plan-an-opportunity-for-communication-reset-varadkar-says-1089465.html

But apparently we must do better and learn to communicate better!!!

Ive seen pigeons learn faster in all honesty.

And it isnt just Leo or a political party im focussing on, theyre all the same. I mean throw in NPHET floating a few other kites like "we might use lock down to ease waiting lists" and theres that much kite flying its like deliberate attempt to stop planes taking off.

I think this is driving frustration as much as anything imho.

People need something to aspire to and aim for, not a finger in the air well we might to this, and we might to that, or this might happen, fook me we know that everyone knows that, we accept that.

But some metric or some form of plan and stick to it, stop kite flying.

We obviously have metrics we look at when deciding what we can do in regards to restrictions from cases to vaccination numbers, to how busy the hospitals are etc.

Can we not have a plan with some targets, for example "if we can get case numbers down to x, and hospitals down to y and z amount of people vaccinated we will be in a position to ease at leas these restrictions, 5k limit, outdoor sports, click and collect etc etc whatever it may be.

That gives people a bit of hope which is whats desperately needed.

I mean at the moment we have a situation where the message is "eh just keep doing and what we are doing and we can see in April" followed less than a week later "probably be May now!"

Maybe im wrong but even last year it wasnt like this, "get case numbers down, get R numbers down along with hospitlisation and we will be able to do this" etc

Now with the help of vaccine we are in a situation where the message is "emmm not really sure, look just keep doing what ye are doing and we can see in April,ok!" Ehh "actually make that May"

IMHO its this thats causing the most frustration.

lee_baby_simms · 02-03-2021 09:31AM

Monster249 wrote: »

Once people are vaccinated, there's no longer a target to aim towards. We have to open up and deal with the fallout. I can understand restrictions like social distancing and masks but we absolutely cannot have another lockdown.

Sadly the goalposts have been in orbit since the start of this so the public have no idea what the actual goal is.

We have been hoodwinked into the belief that living life with its inherent risk is...too risky.

SnuggyBear · 02-03-2021 09:36AM

bluelamp wrote: »

The government would be far better off opening up hairdressers, "non essential" retail, restaurants, gyms etc at this point.

They really should, what good is it having everything closed when people are meeting up again anyway. There is such a visible change over the last couple of weeks.

Guy on TV last night saying If 2 people are vaccinated they should still be careful meeting up as there is still a small risk. Whats he on?

Irish Stones · 02-03-2021 09:37AM

When will it end?

In the IT, dr. Ian Norton says it will last not less than 2 to 3 years (and we're halfway), but some countries will not vaccinate till the end 2025, hence the risk could be high for such a long time

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/abroad/covid-19-we-have-never-seen-a-pandemic-of-this-scale-that-was-shorter-than-2-3-years-1.4498436

JMNolan · 02-03-2021 09:38AM

I see a lot of countries starting to ease restrictions, deaths are falling, and cases are falling so I see a lot to look forward to in the next two months.

Our death rate has halved in the last 4 weeks
Austria is easing restrictions on hospitality
Several US states have almost completely removed restrictions
France has approved AZ for over-65s
South Africa is easing restrictions
Single shot of either Oxford-AstraZeneca or Pfizer-BioNTech Covid vaccine reduces chance of needing hospital treatment by more than 80%, analysis in England shows
EU to propose vaccine passports in March in time for summer

I can go on with the good news. I've always said Ireland won't decide when to lift restrictions. People here are too afraid of and compliant with NPHET. What will happen is US/UK/Rest of EU will open up fully and the case/deaths here will disappear and the media will turn on NPHET. My guess is May.

El_Duderino 09 · 02-03-2021 09:39AM

the kelt wrote: »

But what if this happens, or that happens, or that other thing happens, thats going to be the next post really.

I know your point was flippant and wasn’t supposed to be particularly thoughtful, but it touches on an interesting point. The situation is complicated and people want simple answers so they reject answers with nuance and balance, and only accept simple answers which don’t tell the full story.

Take the vaccine as an example. A year ago they vaccine was seen as the way out of the situation. So some people assumed the vaccine was a simple solution meaning we developed a vaccine and go back to normal - simple. But the reality is much more nuance than that. Firstly, how long it takes to test and be approved, produced and administered. Secondly there is the question around how effective the vaccine is against severe illness, mild illness, hospitalisation and death. Thirdly there are questions a round how effective they are against new variants which will only be answered when the new variants emerge.
Fourthly there are questions around the seasonality of the virus and what will happen when most are vaccinated and we go into next winter.

These are the questions that have been discussed in good news sources for the last year. If you get your news from Facebook or Twitter or tabloids or chatting to people, then chances are you didn’t get beyond the headline facts that the vaccine is the way out. So all the other questions are new to these people and they think the goalposts have suddenly shifted. But in reality, the situation was always more complicated than most people acknowledged.

So you might only be getting to grips with the big questions now, but that’s hardly anyone else’s fault.

Irish Stones · 02-03-2021 09:42AM

JMNolan wrote: »

EU to propose vaccine passports in March in time for summer

This is something I really can't understand.
Are they saying that we will have a passport to be allowed to travel and spread the virus abroad?
Are they saying (behind the lines) that the vaccine cuts the transmission of the virus?
It is one thing or the other.

El_Duderino 09 · 02-03-2021 09:44AM

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Hospitals have been 'overrun' during winter for years. We didn't lose the plot and lock down the country for it.

People get sick, some people die. It's unfortunate and sad for their loved ones, but it's also part of life.

The REAL question is why is it that, despite ever increased budgets and emergency top-ups every year, the HSE can't provide a service that's fit for purpose and meets the increased and known/expected demand during the winter?

That's what you should be asking.

Sure. I’m not really expecting an answer to the question as I keep asking it and keep not getting an answer. It’s a pretty central question to the whole thing given that the virus is seasonal. It really should be among the first questions we should address given that it’s one we’re likely to face next winter.

But instead of addressing it, I keep getting deflections and those same posters would no doubt be shocked if we end up with restrictions next winter.

SnuggyBear · 02-03-2021 09:46AM

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I know your point was flippant and wasn’t supposed to be particularly thoughtful, but it touches on an interesting point. The situation is complicated and people want simple answers so they reject answers with nuance and balance, and only accept simple answers which don’t tell the full story.

Take the vaccine as an example. A year ago they vaccine was seen as the way out of the situation. So some people assumed the vaccine was a simple solution meaning we developed a vaccine and go back to normal - simple. But the reality is much more nuance than that. Firstly, how long it takes to test and be approved, produced and administered. Secondly there is the question around how effective the vaccine is against severe illness, mild illness, hospitalisation and death. Thirdly there are questions a round how effective they are against new variants which will only be answered when the new variants emerge.
Fourthly there are questions around the seasonality of the virus and what will happen when most are vaccinated and we go into next winter.

These are the questions that have been discussed in good news sources for the last year. If you get your news from Facebook or Twitter or tabloids or chatting to people, then chances are you didn’t get beyond the headline facts that the vaccine is the way out. So all the other questions are new to these people and they think the goalposts have suddenly shifted. But in reality, the situation was always more complicated than most people acknowledged.

So you might only be getting to grips with the big questions now, but that’s hardly anyone else’s fault.

Waffle

the kelt · 02-03-2021 09:49AM

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I know your point was flippant and wasn’t supposed to be particularly thoughtful, but it touches on an interesting point. The situation is complicated and people want simple answers so they reject answers with nuance and balance, and only accept simple answers which don’t tell the full story.

Take the vaccine as an example. A year ago they vaccine was seen as the way out of the situation. So some people assumed the vaccine was a simple solution meaning we developed a vaccine and go back to normal - simple. But the reality is much more nuance than that. Firstly, how long it takes to test and be approved, produced and administered. Secondly there is the question around how effective the vaccine is against severe illness, mild illness, hospitalisation and death. Thirdly there are questions a round how effective they are against new variants which will only be answered when the new variants emerge.
Fourthly there are questions around the seasonality of the virus and what will happen when most are vaccinated and we go into next winter.

These are the questions that have been discussed in good news sources for the last year. If you get your news from Facebook or Twitter or tabloids or chatting to people, then chances are you didn’t get beyond the headline facts that the vaccine is the way out. So all the other questions are new to these people and they think the goalposts have suddenly shifted. But in reality, the situation was always more complicated than most people acknowledged.

So you might only be getting to grips with the big questions now, but that’s hardly anyone else’s fault.

LOL

A dude who said the entire population cant be trusted because they had Christmas with their families citing others as getting their news from Facebook and Twitter!!

That view is pretty much twitter/facebook rule number one when it comes to COVID 19.

But i agree, it is more nuanced and no people dont just want simple answers. This might come as a shock but people can accept, digest and listen to information in this country, but they see through waffle straight away

They just want an answer, a plan, something to aspire to that doesnt change within 7 days when nothing within that 7 days should have led it to change.

Well it might be this, and it might be that, or it might be the other thing isnt an answer with nuance or balance, its plain and simply waffle!!

People want answers with information, we need to get the case numbers below this much, R-number below this much, hospitilisations at this level and this number vaccinated before we can look at easing this for example. Even if those numbers look like they may be hard to get so be it at least people know what we should be looking out for. If something happens in the meantime like a new variant etc then so be it, people will accept that. Its better than what we currently have which is finger in the air waffle

Thats what people want, not waffle.

Scotty # · 02-03-2021 09:50AM

SnuggyBear wrote: »

Guy on TV last night saying If 2 people are vaccinated they should still be careful meeting up as there is still a small risk. Whats he on?

You know the vaccines aren't 100% effective, right? You know some are as low as 22% with some variants, right? You realise that restrictions are going to be around for a long time to come whether your vaccinated or not, right?

Deeper Blue · 02-03-2021 09:53AM

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I know your point was flippant and wasn’t supposed to be particularly thoughtful, but it touches on an interesting point. The situation is complicated and people want simple answers so they reject answers with nuance and balance, and only accept simple answers which don’t tell the full story.

Take the vaccine as an example. A year ago they vaccine was seen as the way out of the situation. So some people assumed the vaccine was a simple solution meaning we developed a vaccine and go back to normal - simple. But the reality is much more nuance than that. Firstly, how long it takes to test and be approved, produced and administered. Secondly there is the question around how effective the vaccine is against severe illness, mild illness, hospitalisation and death. Thirdly there are questions a round how effective they are against new variants which will only be answered when the new variants emerge.
Fourthly there are questions around the seasonality of the virus and what will happen when most are vaccinated and we go into next winter.

These are the questions that have been discussed in good news sources for the last year. If you get your news from Facebook or Twitter or tabloids or chatting to people, then chances are you didn’t get beyond the headline facts that the vaccine is the way out. So all the other questions are new to these people and they think the goalposts have suddenly shifted. But in reality, the situation was always more complicated than most people acknowledged.

So you might only be getting to grips with the big questions now, but that’s hardly anyone else’s fault.

Vaccines are the way out

SnuggyBear · 02-03-2021 09:53AM

Scotty # wrote: »

You know the vaccines aren't 100% effective, right? You know some are as low as 22% with some variants, right? You realise that restrictions are going to be around for a long time to come whether your vaccinated or not, right?

lol I'd say you are loving it sitting at home hiding away from the world.

Scotty # · 02-03-2021 09:55AM

the kelt wrote: »

People want answers with information, we need to get the case numbers below this much, R-number below this much, hospitilisations at this level and this number vaccinated before we can look at easing this for example.

But it's far more complicated than that. All the various parameters effect each other. You can't simply say we can go ahead at X or Y. There's far too many parameters involved.

The UK have released dates but as they're completely meaningless. They say themselves in the roadmap, it's all down to the data at the time and no one can predict what that will be.

El_Duderino 09 · 02-03-2021 09:56AM

SnuggyBear wrote: »

Waffle

You’ve provided a great example of what has happened in the last year. Some people engage in the full discussion on the topic, others want a simple answer - your answer was so simple it was only a single word.

But to is topic isn’t simple and it can’t be summed up in a simple answer.

Scotty # · 02-03-2021 09:57AM

SnuggyBear wrote: »

lol I'd say you are loving it sitting at home hiding away from the world.

Actually I haven't had a day off since last April.

But I do find it sad that your side of the debate have to resort to sarcastic wit EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. It's like, I've nothing intelligent to say so I'll just come out with some garbage.

...and you accuse others of 'waffle'!

El_Duderino 09 · 02-03-2021 09:58AM

Deeper Blue wrote: »

Vaccines are the way out

Of course they are the way out. But there’s more to it than that.

The people who engaged with the topic know that there’s more to it than simply developing a vaccine. There are also the questions I raised in the post you quoted.

Irish Stones · 02-03-2021 09:59AM

Scotty # wrote: »

You know the vaccines aren't 100% effective, right? You know some are as low as 22% with some variants, right? You realise that restrictions are going to be around for a long time to come whether your vaccinated or not, right?

So if two fully vaccinated people can't meet without precautions, what could change when all the world is vaccinated? Nothing, it seems.

Scotty # · 02-03-2021 10:01AM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Once we get enough people vaccinated there will be far too much pressure on government to lift restrictions.

I'd be absolutely amazed if we have significant restrictions by autumn and even more surprised if we have any at all by this time next year.

Me too. But they have to get it right. If they get it wrong then we're back into lockdown in a month and all this has been for nothing.

They ****ed up at Christmas by not locking down when NPHET were telling them too. NPHET even went public with their advice so as they would not take the blame when the inevitable happened. Once bitten, twice shy and all that.

Scotty # · 02-03-2021 10:02AM

Irish Stones wrote: »

So if two fully vaccinated people can't meet without precautions, what could change when all the world is vaccinated? Nothing, it seems.

I'd say two people can meet but I don't think we'll be having packed pubs or standing rock concerts for a while yet.

RGS · 02-03-2021 10:06AM

Scotty # wrote: »

But it's far more complicated than that. All the , it's all down to the data at the time and no one can predict what that will be.

Its not that difficult. Any plan should set out targets to be met to move from stage to stage. Why is that so difficult for some posters to accept.

The plan should have stated: If hospitalisations are at X, ICU at Y, Cases at Z and vaccinations at A, then the following restrictions cane be eased:

Click and collect, 5km moved to inter county limit, outdoor non contact sports resumes,

Stage 2 if hospitalisations are at X-25%, ICU at Y-25%, cases at Z-25% and vaccinations at A+ 25% the following restrictions will be eased and so on.
It the targets are not met then we don't loosen restrictions.

But it appears NHPET were against setting targets as per Leo last week.

SnuggyBear · 02-03-2021 10:06AM

Scotty # wrote: »

I'd say two people can meet but I don't think we'll be having packed pubs or standing rock concerts for a while yet.

So you think 2 people can meet but you reply to me banging on about restrictions and vaccines aren't 100% safe?

hatrickpatrick · 02-03-2021 10:07AM

Scotty # wrote: »

I'd say two people can meet but I don't think we'll be having packed pubs or standing rock concerts for a while yet.

What would say is the criteria for either of the aforementioned, though? That's what's sorely missing from all of this. If vaccines can't get us back to mass gatherings, the question of what can is something which needs to at least be addressed. "We don't know, maybe never" is not an acceptable answer for the vast majority of people.

El_Duderino 09 · 02-03-2021 10:08AM

the kelt wrote: »

LOL

A dude who said the entire population cant be trusted because they had Christmas with their families citing others as getting their news from Facebook and Twitter!!

That view is pretty much twitter/facebook rule number one when it comes to COVID 19.

But i agree, it is more nuanced and no people dont just want simple answers. This might come as a shock but people can accept, digest and listen to information in this country, but they see through waffle straight away

They just want an answer, a plan, something to aspire to that doesnt change within 7 days when nothing within that 7 days should have led it to change.

Well it might be this, and it might be that, or it might be the other thing isnt an answer with nuance or balance, its plain and simply waffle!!

People want answers with information, we need to get the case numbers below this much, R-number below this much, hospitilisations at this level and this number vaccinated before we can look at easing this for example. Even if those numbers look like they may be hard to get so be it at least people know what we should be looking out for. If something happens in the meantime like a new variant etc then so be it, people will accept that. Its better than what we currently have which is finger in the air waffle

Thats what people want, not waffle.

Well, you say people can comprehend complicated information accurately, the then your first paragraph is an inaccurate, mischaracterisation of something I said. So you’re not making a strong case for most people’s ability to ingest and comprehend information.

But I’ve seen it happen so often in this thread alone. There’s one poster who keeps going back to a point Leo made where he said that IF things go well we MIGHT see full stadiums and PERHAPS even festivals this year. And even with three caveats in the sentence, they took it as a guarantee of full stadiums and festivals.
People are definitely looking for a simple answer to a complicated question. And the reality is we don’t have the answers yet and that seems to cause a lot of people to get cross. I think you were calling for some kind of target a few posts ago. Any old target involving r number, hospitalisation numbers would have done you just as long as it was simple.

Reality is, the situation isn’t simple and getting news form Facebook or tabloids or chatting with friends, won’t have prepared you for the big questions. Hence the trouble accepting that there aren’t simple answers available.

the kelt · 02-03-2021 10:13AM

Scotty # wrote: »

But it's far more complicated than that. All the various parameters effect each other. You can't simply say we can go ahead at X or Y. There's far too many parameters involved.

The UK have released dates but as they're completely meaningless. They say themselves in the roadmap, it's all down to the data at the time and no one can predict what that will be.

They were doing it a year ago without the help of a vaccine but cant do it now?

New variants etc are going to throw spanners in to the works but its still the same outcomes, they will be measuring the same criteria how busy hospitals are, case numbers, r numbers, they will still use the same numbers etc.

And ye see this is where the issue lies, its the kite flying. When they dont inform people and give them information people decide for themselves and then whackos, nut jobs and anti vaccers fill that vacum and void.

We dont give information so people dont know what to look for to get out of this and then we have a kite flying of maybe we might use lockdown to reduce our waiting lists also so people begin to think, here hold on a minute.

Stop treating people like thickos (we are a country that can handle and digest the information with intelligent people who just want some more information, something to look to)

But if we cant or refuse to do that then stop waffling.

A week ago we had a hames of a press conference where we learnt nothing and were told "ah sure keep going and we will see in April" which was bade enough but at least people said ok fair enough, thats all we can do. The frustration had subsided in general followed a week later by "ah probably be May now"

People deserve better than that imho

El_Duderino 09 · 02-03-2021 10:17AM

TomSweeney wrote: »

Did you have the nipple clamps on and **** with the sandpaper as you typed that ?

I’m just pointing to this as an example of someone who read some information they didn’t like and instead of engaging with it, dismissed it with humour. That’s a good defence mechanism to avoid information that we don’t likely to hear, but it’s also one of the causes of the situation we’re in now where some people ignore the complicating information and then think there should be easy answers to complicated questions.

SnuggyBear · 02-03-2021 10:17AM

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

You’ve provided a great example of what has happened in the last year. Some people engage in the full discussion on the topic, others want a simple answer - your answer was so simple it was only a single word.

But to is topic isn’t simple and it can’t be summed up in a simple answer.

You reply to one word with more waffle, lol. I just scroll past your walls of waffle. I know you think your posting some amazing analysis everytime but it's all waffle.

When will it all end?

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