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Covid 19 Part XXXIII-231,484 ROI(4,610 deaths)116,197 NI (2,107 deaths)(23/03)Read OP

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Comments

  • #2342
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,628 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    Eod100 wrote: »
    Nothing is certain in a pandemic except for the exact measures needed for zero covid and how long they would last exactly. Seems an odd statement from Donnelly. No idea what hes basing that on tbh.

    https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1366414098766979079

    ISAG want us to target < 5 cases per day. With schools closed, cases are falling at about 15% per week. To get from 600 cases per day to under 5 cases it would take 30 weeks. Now ISAG might say we should have a stricter lockdown and cases would fall faster. But there is very little scope for a stricter lockdown than we had in January/February. We could have fully closed construction, I guess, but what else could we have done?


  • #2343
    timmyntc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,653 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Apparently a fortnight suppression of Covid à la NZ takes five months in Ireland. Which makes sense when thousands arrive through the air and seaports weekly without mandatory hotel quarantine.
    MerlinSouthDub wrote: »
    ISAG want us to target < 5 cases per day. With schools closed, cases are falling at about 15% per week. To get from 600 cases per day to under 5 cases it would take 30 weeks. Now ISAG might say we should have a stricter lockdown and cases would fall faster. But there is very little scope for a stricter lockdown than we had in January/February. We could have fully closed construction, I guess, but what else could we have done?

    As I've said before, zero-covid is unattainable short of physically restricting people from leaving their homes. Their is no appetite for zero-covid or the restrictions it would entail.

    Remember also that to go for xero-covid, you need near 100% buy-in from the population. It only takes a small minority to keep the virus circulating.

    That ship has long sailed


  • #2344
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Apparently a fortnight suppression of Covid à la NZ takes five months in Ireland. Which makes sense when thousands arrive through the air and seaports weekly without mandatory hotel quarantine.
    NZ have had handfuls of isolated cases. We are at over 500 a day - that takes a lot more than 2 weeks to suppress.


  • #2345
    PowerToWait
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,792 ✭✭✭PowerToWait


    What Username Guidelines wrote: »
    We should in fact forget it as nobody ever said that.

    Ciara Kelly said it multiple times a day for months last year. Her exact words were “we know children don’t get it, and they don’t spread it”. It was her mantra. For months.


  • #2346
    Turtwig
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    The time for zero COVID was last year. That said the position of ISAG is schools should open when cases are low in the community. Considering some counties are already zero COVID or should achieve it shortly then it's very misleading of Donnelly to state schools would remain shut until September.


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  • #2347
    PowerToWait
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,792 ✭✭✭PowerToWait


    timmyntc wrote: »
    As I've said before, zero-covid is unattainable short of physically restricting people from leaving their homes. Their is no appetite for zero-covid or the restrictions it would entail.

    That ship has long sailed

    What are your qualifications in epidemiology to make this assertion?

    We were practically zero covid in June and July.


  • #2348
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Turtwig wrote: »
    The time for zero COVID was last year. That said the position of ISAG is schools should open when cases are low in the community. Considering some counties are already zero COVID or should achieve it shortly then it's very misleading of Donnelly to state schools would remain shut until September.
    The basic point of a very extended lockdown is not misleading. Low is under 10 and that possibility is a good few months away. If low is under 5 he is absolutely right.


  • #2349
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    PowerToWait wrote: »
    Ciara Kelly said it multiple times a day for months last year. Her exact words were “we know children don’t get it, and they don’t spread it”. It was her mantra. For months.

    I haven't found that quote but her's a good one. She spoke some **** she did. Now she is bemoaning the protesters that she directly inspired.

    https://twitter.com/TonightVMTV/status/1278813714788102144?s=20


  • #2350
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    PowerToWait wrote: »
    What are your qualifications in epidemiology to make this assertion?

    We were practically zero covid in June and July.

    It rarely strayed below double figures, even back then. By the end of July it was already rising.


  • #2351
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    PowerToWait wrote: »
    Ciara Kelly said it multiple times a day for months last year. Her exact words were “we know children don’t get it, and they don’t spread it”. It was her mantra. For months.

    Ok, being pedantic then, nobody with enough expertise to be in a position to make decisions on schools has ever said.


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  • #2352
    CruelSummer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭CruelSummer


    Eod100 wrote: »
    Nothing is certain in a pandemic except for the exact measures needed for zero covid and how long they would last exactly. Seems an odd statement from Donnelly. No idea what hes basing that on tbh.

    https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1366414098766979079

    It’s not odd to be stating facts surely? I’ll also add NI and U.K. are reopening in the summer. Zero Covid ship has long sailed. Anyone trying to keep the debate going is just gaslighting at this stage.


  • #2353
    daydorunrun
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 784 ✭✭✭daydorunrun


    seamus wrote: »
    RTE back on the fear wagon today. On the day the schools go back, let's throw out some large numbers about Covid in children with no context at all;

    https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0301/1199998-covid19-ireland/

    1,403 cases is 13.6% of the cases reported during this time period. 0-12 year olds make up about 20% of the population.

    Of course, the headline is not "Infection rates in children 30% lower than average".

    28 hospitalisations out of 1403 is a 2% hospitalisation rate. And I guarantee if you investigated, a majority of these would be hospital-acquired or precautionary admissions on babies and children with medical conditions.

    So on the day schools start returning, the headline is not, "Children less likely to catch Covid; hospitalisation rate low". No, no, "LOOK AT ALL THE CHILDREN WHO'VE GOT COVID. YOURS COULD BE NEXT".

    FFS.

    Was livid reading that article. Over the weekend we saw 2 ladies at the protest with hoodies denouncing RTE- all I saw on Twitter was people smugly mocking their grammar and ignoring the message. (forgetting that the bad grammar may have been the fault of the printers)

    The above post is an insight into why somebody would go and get such messages printed on their clothing. The media are playing with people for the sake of click worthy articles daily.

    “You tried your best and you failed miserably. The lesson is, never try.” Homer.



  • #2354
    Turtwig
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    is_that_so wrote: »
    The basic point of a very extended lockdown is not misleading. Low is under 10 and that possibility is a good few months away. If low is under 5 he is absolutely right.

    Donnelly implied every school in Ireland would be shut until Sept. That would not be the case as we already have counties that are etching onto zero covid. It's misleading. You take the best form of the argument you oppose or better it. You don't construct the simple strawman. Donnelly conveniently did the latter to score fear points.

    It was also a reckless thing to state because if it turns out that the variants have altered the characteristics of transmission in younger age groups then schools may become more problematic than before. Unlikely based on current info but not something that can be ruled out and why you don't make statements about the future.


  • #2355
    CruelSummer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭CruelSummer


    seamus wrote: »
    RTE back on the fear wagon today. On the day the schools go back, let's throw out some large numbers about Covid in children with no context at all;

    https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0301/1199998-covid19-ireland/

    1,403 cases is 13.6% of the cases reported during this time period. 0-12 year olds make up about 20% of the population.

    Of course, the headline is not "Infection rates in children 30% lower than average".

    28 hospitalisations out of 1403 is a 2% hospitalisation rate. And I guarantee if you investigated, a majority of these would be hospital-acquired or precautionary admissions on babies and children with medical conditions.

    So on the day schools start returning, the headline is not, "Children less likely to catch Covid; hospitalisation rate low". No, no, "LOOK AT ALL THE CHILDREN WHO'VE GOT COVID. YOURS COULD BE NEXT".

    FFS.

    It states at the bottom of the article, additional reporting Fergal Bowers. Did he write this tripe? He’s really gone off his rocker over the last few days writing hysterical nonsense.
    Brilliant to see children back at school today - so much catching up to do.


  • #2356
    hatrickpatrick
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,798 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    MerlinSouthDub wrote: »
    ISAG want us to target < 5 cases per day. With schools closed, cases are falling at about 15% per week. To get from 600 cases per day to under 5 cases it would take 30 weeks. Now ISAG might say we should have a stricter lockdown and cases would fall faster. But there is very little scope for a stricter lockdown than we had in January/February. We could have fully closed construction, I guess, but what else could we have done?

    We could have clamped down on Coroorate Ireland tbf. There’s so much more traffic on the road this time compared with the first lockdown and anecdotal reports certainly seem to put a lot of that down to office environments which were closed last March having found ways to self-declare as essential and not allow WFH. There seems to be a huge amount of this going on even in the public service. I personally know people who are back in the office for no good reason other than micromanaging middle management, and those people were 100% WFH last March-May.

    Between that and not closing the airports, there are definitely things we’re not doing that we should be doing.


  • #2357
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Turtwig wrote: »
    Donnelly implied every school in Ireland would be shut until Sept. That would not be the case as we already have counties that are etching onto zero covid. It's misleading. You take the best form of the argument you oppose or better it. You don't construct the simple strawman. Donnelly conveniently did the latter to score fear points.

    It was also a reckless thing to state because if it turns out that the variants have altered the characteristics of transmission in younger age groups then schools may become more problematic than before. Unlikely based on current info but not something that can be ruled out and why you don't make statements about the future.
    But he's not wrong about September, Staines' favoured date. If it's taking aim at that misleading "false hope" of Zero-COVID I have no issue with it.


  • #2358
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    What Username Guidelines wrote: »
    Not bad

    https://twitter.com/COVID19DataIE/status/1366417197195747331?s=20

    Havent been following the swabs/cases/backlog, but wonder will be see a sub-500 cases day today, or hopefully this week


  • #2359
    goingnowhere
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,396 ✭✭✭goingnowhere


    Down to 4.3% 7 day which is great

    If we can get to sub 4% we hit the magic limit per the travel rules


  • #2360
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,277 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    CruelSummer wrote: »
    It’s not odd to be stating facts surely? I’ll also add NI and U.K. are reopening in the summer. Zero Covid ship has long sailed. Anyone trying to keep the debate going is just gaslighting at this stage.

    Agree ship has sailed or more it never left the harbour but when there is so much uncertainty about things happening now like when people will be vaccinated and when easing of restrictions will happen it seems strange that he can give a precise timeframe for a hypothetical zero covid scenario.


  • #2361
    timmyntc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,653 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Eod100 wrote: »
    Agree ship has sailed or more it never left the harbour but when there is so much uncertainty about things happening now like when people will be vaccinated and when easing of restrictions will happen it seems strange that he can give a precise timeframe for a hypothetical zero covid scenario.

    I wouldnt give much weight to it - its just a strawman answer.
    To be honest I wouldnt expect them to have detailed dates because its clear that zero-covid is not worth pursuing anyways, so why bother researching exactly how long it would take and what sectors could open when etc.

    Point is, it would take a long time - public would not be happy, and there is no real point given that vaccinations are ongoing anyways.
    Unless we isolate ourselves like Australia or New Zealand (which would totally screw up our supply lines btw) it is unworkable.


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  • #2362
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,277 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    is_that_so wrote: »
    The basic point of a very extended lockdown is not misleading. Low is under 10 and that possibility is a good few months away. If low is under 5 he is absolutely right.

    Dont think he can know the full effect of vaccines on rates over next few months though. With positive data from Israel seems vaccines will decrease transmission too.

    I get they have ruled zero covid out but seems to be able to suggest exact timeframes when all along we have been told how uncertain projections are.


  • #2363
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,277 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    timmyntc wrote: »
    I wouldnt give much weight to it - its just a strawman answer.
    To be honest I wouldnt expect them to have detailed dates because its clear that zero-covid is not worth pursuing anyways, so why bother researching exactly how long it would take and what sectors could open when etc.

    Point is, it would take a long time - public would not be happy, and there is no real point given that vaccinations are ongoing anyways.
    Unless we isolate ourselves like Australia or New Zealand (which would totally screw up our supply lines btw) it is unworkable.

    It is a strawman but that is the point, if theyre not going to do it either way dont know what he has to try to predict it would be. Basically sees like an attempt to say thing would be far worse than now without any detail on when we will actually exit current arrangements either.


  • #2364
    timmyntc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,653 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Eod100 wrote: »
    Dont think he can know the full effect of vaccines on rates over next few months though. With positive data from Israel seems vaccines will decrease transmission too.

    I get they have ruled zero covid out but seems to be able to suggest exact timeframes when all along we have been told how uncertain projections are.

    If vaccinations have anywhere close to the impact we think they will, then there will be no need for zero-covid anyways because it will have such little impact on us at that stage. It would be the definition of diminishing returns.


  • #2365
    PowerToWait
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,792 ✭✭✭PowerToWait


    What Username Guidelines wrote: »
    Ok, being pedantic then, nobody with enough expertise to be in a position to make decisions on schools has ever said.


    It’s been stated, as nauseam, by NPHET and Government, that schools are safe. The reasoning being that children do not contract or spread the virus.


  • #2366
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,277 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    timmyntc wrote: »
    If vaccinations have anywhere close to the impact we think they will, then there will be no need for zero-covid anyways because it will have such little impact on us at that stage. It would be the definition of diminishing returns.

    Thats fair and I think thats a more reasonable answer to give. Just think sometimes this government plucks things from the sky without any evidence or data.


  • #2367
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,422 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Eod100 wrote: »
    Dont think he can know the full effect of vaccines on rates over next few months though. With positive data from Israel seems vaccines will decrease transmission too.

    I get they have ruled zero covid out but seems to be able to suggest exact timeframes when all along we have been told how uncertain projections are.

    Remarkable how Donnelly can pinpoint September as being realistic for success in hypothetical "zero covid" scenario, yet the government cannot offer employers on their knees a possible date for reopening within weeks. And you wonder why public sentiment is turning sharply against our so-called leaders.


  • #2368
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,039 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    daydorunrun wrote: »
    (forgetting that the bad grammar may have been the fault of the printers)
    Just as a matter of interest - would you also suggest that the "Save Our Children From the Reptilians" was a printing error?


  • #2369
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Eod100 wrote: »
    Dont think he can know the full effect of vaccines on rates over next few months though. With positive data from Israel seems vaccines will decrease transmission too.

    I get they have ruled zero covid out but seems to be able to suggest exact timeframes when all along we have been told how uncertain projections are.
    Well, we have been given data on how many may be vaccinated by x date and we have reviews coming up every four weeks and plans to go with them. The timeframe may not be exact but it's a lot shorter than a full lockdown till September. They will do well to keep people compliant this month never mind past Easter.

    September is not a new date he made up, Staines has used it. In all likelihood Donnelly got data on a zero-COVID scenario from Nolan, who equally scorns it.


  • #2370
    timmyntc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,653 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Eod100 wrote: »
    Thats fair and I think thats a more reasonable answer to give. Just think sometimes this government plucks things from the sky without any evidence or data.

    Yes, I agree about that. I would be the govts biggest critic, however the Zero-Covid advocates are dangerous and the misinformation they are spreading is dangerous also. If they had their way we would obliterate our economy for zero-covid, when the rest of the world is fully vaccinated and thriving.

    I would forgive Donnelly in this instance if it means zero-covid gains no more traction.


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  • #2371
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,277 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    Looks like NI seeing positive impact of low case numbers and vaccines https://twitter.com/SeaninGraham22/status/1366419905336254465?s=19


This discussion has been closed.
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