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Covid 19 Part XXXIII-231,484 ROI(4,610 deaths)116,197 NI (2,107 deaths)(23/03)Read OP

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  • Posts: 18,046 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The Zero-Covid measures taken in other countries still could have been implemented and reduced the need for lockdowns. People talk of the approach as if it would be even harsher than what's going on when it gives far more freedom.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,870 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    prunudo wrote:
    And that for me is where Killeen, Staines, McConkey and the rest of the zero covid crowds argument falls flat. Even with tigther regulations our borders are much more porous than NZ so how can they say we'll never need lockdowns again if we follow their advice of zero covid.
    It's one border and if I was involved at the very outset of this I'd have been in contact with the powers in NI as regards a joint approach. I said that at the time.
    We can still do that. Anybody coming into this country should be tested and quarantined until they are cleared.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    eagle eye wrote: »
    It's one border and if I was involved at the very outset of this I'd have been in contact with the powers in NI as regards a joint approach. I said that at the time.
    We can still do that. Anybody coming into this country should be tested and quarantined until they are cleared.

    Are you familiar with NI politics and the history of the border?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    I for one think it's fantastic that posters on here have managed to solve the NI border issue. Politicians have spent decades on this but the answer was so obvious all along: just police the border or make a hard border between NI and the UK.

    Why didn't anyone think of these solutions sooner?

    To clarify.

    There is no border with Northern Ireland (I went and checked) not so much as a "paper's please"

    There is no border between Northern Ireland and the island of great Britain. I(I have not checked this personally although I have it on good authority) also they are the same country.

    There is no border between the republic of Ireland and great Britain. Common travel area. (I've personally checked this for everyones benefit)


    Those imaginary borders have been temporary fixes that have served all communities well.

    The pandemic and Brexit have just brought it into sharp focus and in particular how unworkable the whole thing is in that context. It's a route cause problem and until there is agreement by all sides it'll never be fixed.

    Nowhere near being sorted for a long time.

    Reminds me of this......
    The Puzzle:
    A man has to get a fox, a chicken, and a sack of corn across a river.

    He has a rowboat, and it can only carry him and one other thing.

    If the fox and the chicken are left together, the fox will eat the chicken.

    If the chicken and the corn are left together, the chicken will eat the corn.

    How does the man do it?

    https://twitter.com/SJAMcBride/status/1365313127408144388?s=20


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,627 ✭✭✭✭Vicxas


    To clarify.

    There is no border with Northern Ireland (I went and checked) not so much as a "paper's please"

    There is no border between Northern Ireland and the island of great Britain. I(I have not checked this personally although I have it on good authority) also they are the same country.

    There is no border between the republic of Ireland and great Britain. Common travel area. (I've personally checked this for everyones benefit)


    Those imaginary borders have been temporary fixes that have served all communities well.

    The pandemic and Brexit have just brought it into sharp focus and in particular how unworkable the whole thing is in that context. It's a route cause problem and until there is agreement by all sides it'll never be fixed.

    Nowhere near being sorted for a long time.

    Reminds me of this......



    https://twitter.com/SJAMcBride/status/1365313127408144388?s=20

    All Brexit has done has made the UK look like this to Northern ireland:

    source.gif

    And Ireland like this:

    340?cb=20120328202212


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,870 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    The logic is sound but there's an Arlene shaped hole in that plan.
    I'm aware of that. You simply make her think it's all her idea and she'll be fully behind it.
    Are you familiar with NI politics and the history of the border?
    Well aware, it's not about the border between north and south. It's about anybody coming onto the island.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,072 ✭✭✭jackboy


    Sanjuro wrote: »
    Just in relation to ZC and it’s proponents. Was talking to the wife this morning about a certain Trinity-based ZC proponent who keeps getting wheeled out in front of the media. She works in Trinity and comes from a Neuroscience background, so she’d have a few friends in the department. Word on campus is Trinity are incredibly unhappy about how this person keeps using the Trinity name to peddle nonsense. Like, exploring options unhappy.

    Edit: I seemed to have thumbed down my own comment and dunno how to fix that. :/

    Don’t see how that is relevant or indicates what he is saying is wrong.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,241 ✭✭✭Sanjuro


    jackboy wrote: »
    Don’t see how that is relevant or indicates what he is saying is wrong.

    Whenever he presents himself as a Trinity academic, he is representing the university. If the nonsense he's spouting contravenes their stance, they're well within their rights to call into question him representing the university.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,145 ✭✭✭ilovesmybrick


    jackboy wrote: »
    Don’t see how that is relevant or indicates what he is saying is wrong.

    I think the point is that there's nothing in his background or education relating to biochemistry, immunology, or public health and the actual Professors in his department all have dismissed the ability of zero covid to work and how vaccines are the way out(full Professors rather than TCD's associate professors, who are called Lecturers in every other university).

    It really can't help his arguments, even aside from his lack of expertise in the area, when prominent members of that zero covid crowd have been downplaying the efficacy of vaccines in recent weeks, which is a very dangerous, very disingenuous argument to be making that flies in the face of pretty much all the actual research done by biochemists and immunologists on the vaccine, as well as the emerging evidence not just from Israel, but in what we are seeing in nursing homes and hospital infections. I've seen no attempt by them to distance themselves from statements by Killeen regarding vaccinations, and that alone makes me incredibly sceptical of both the level of scientific rigour they've applied to the zero covid argument, and to the actual plan they would have to implement a zero covid policy.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,086 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    Hospital report is out

    528 in hospital (down from 585)
    135 in ICU (down from 140, 1 death)

    Nice drop before the weekend.

    Great to see the hospital cases

    We might even beat NPHET's revised prediction of 500-600 by the end of the month even though discharges are less at weekends


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    Great to see the hospital cases

    We might even beat NPHET's revised prediction of 500-600 by the end of the month even though discharges are less at weekends

    What was the original prediction?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,072 ✭✭✭jackboy


    I think the point is that there's nothing in his background or education relating to biochemistry, immunology, or public health and the actual Professors in his department all have dismissed the ability of zero covid to work and how vaccines are the way out(full Professors rather than TCD's associate professors, who are called Lecturers in every other university).

    It really can't help his arguments, even aside from his lack of expertise in the area, when prominent members of that zero covid crowd have been downplaying the efficacy of vaccines in recent weeks, which is a very dangerous, very disingenuous argument to be making that flies in the face of pretty much all the actual research done by biochemists and immunologists on the vaccine, as well as the emerging evidence not just from Israel, but in what we are seeing in nursing homes and hospital infections. I've seen no attempt by them to distance themselves from statements by Killeen regarding vaccinations, and that alone makes me incredibly sceptical of both the level of scientific rigour they've applied to the zero covid argument, and to the actual plan they would have to implement a zero covid policy.

    The possibility of a variant emerging that the vaccines are significantly less effective against is real. I have never heard any scientists or experts disagreeing with that. So, Ryan and Killeen are right about that and right to highlight it.

    In the long run we may or may not detect such variants but for now it is an unknown which could have devastating implications if it came to pass.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,145 ✭✭✭ilovesmybrick


    jackboy wrote: »
    The possibility of a variant emerging that the vaccines are significantly less effective against is real. I have never heard any scientists or experts disagreeing with that. So, Ryan and Killeen are right about that and right to highlight it.

    In the long run we may or may not detect such variants but for now it is an unknown which could have devastating implications if it came to pass.

    There is this possibility with every vaccine, and yes these potential issues have been mentioned by other scientists too. However, downplaying vaccines, which do work and work with the current variants is both foolish and irresponsible, especially when we are in the early stages of the vaccine roll-out and need very broad public takeup of the vaccines.

    I am not a biochemist, nor am I an immunologist, so I'm never sure whether my attitude is down to a personal antipathy towards both Killeen and Ryan, or based on the lack of any depth to their arguments. However, my partner is a senior biochemist in an institute that is heavily working on vaccines, and when her and her colleagues are also appalled by some of the statements by these guys I think I'm probably not far off the mark.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭CruelSummer


    Irish times has sunk to a new low today with a Zero Covid propaganda piece from Fintan O’Toole instead of reporting what ISAG have been doing to the Irish population over the past year. Where are the credible journalists reporting on this extremely serious issue?

    Then they follow up with this tripe

    https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/health-family/death-threats-gifts-parodies-the-life-of-an-irish-covid-celeb-1.4495036?mode=amp&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    There needs to be a fightback from ordinary Irish people about the media coverage, exposure and misleading of the Irish population over this.
    Imagine anyone with credibility buying and selling the zero Covid nonsense when the North will be reopening with the U.K. over the summer.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭CruelSummer


    jackboy wrote: »
    The possibility of a variant emerging that the vaccines are significantly less effective against is real. I have never heard any scientists or experts disagreeing with that. So, Ryan and Killeen are right about that and right to highlight it.

    In the long run we may or may not detect such variants but for now it is an unknown which could have devastating implications if it came to pass.

    It’s actually not as real as you’re claiming. Not at all in fact if you follow the science and all relevant data. They’re just minor differences in the virus ‘photocopy’ of itself if you like. This variant coverage is just about scaring and misleading. Yes variants exist but Coronaviruses do not mutate even at the same rate as flu according to the actual Science.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,072 ✭✭✭jackboy


    There is this possibility with every vaccine, and yes these potential issues have been mentioned by other scientists too. However, downplaying vaccines, which do work and work with the current variants is both foolish and irresponsible, especially when we are in the early stages of the vaccine roll-out and need very broad public takeup of the vaccines.

    I am not a biochemist, nor am I an immunologist, so I'm never sure whether my attitude is down to a personal antipathy towards both Killeen and Ryan, or based on the lack of any depth to their arguments. However, my partner is a senior biochemist in an institute that is heavily working on vaccines, and when her and her colleagues are also appalled by some of the statements by these guys I think I'm probably not far off the mark.

    That is fine. The thing that annoys me is that nearly all the criticism of Ryan and Killeen’s opinions are just personal insults rather than an attempt to explain why they are wrong.

    Also, they are clearly strongly pro vaccine despite their detractors efforts to paint them as otherwise.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,072 ✭✭✭jackboy


    It’s actually not as real as you’re claiming. Not at all in fact if you follow the science and all relevant data. They’re just minor differences in the virus ‘photocopy’ of itself if you like. This variant coverage is just about scaring and misleading. Yes variants exist but Coronaviruses do not mutate even at the same rate as flu according to the actual Science.

    What do you mean by ‘not as real’. It’s either real or not.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,086 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    What was the original prediction?

    600-800

    Then again the prediction for cases was 200-400 so a bit away there


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,500 ✭✭✭Deeper Blue


    Yes variants exist but Coronaviruses do not mutate even at the same rate as flu according to the actual Science.

    I've read this also. Nearly all of the variants that are being mentioned have the E484 mutation from SA. So to my unscientific eye the majority are quite similar.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,810 ✭✭✭snotboogie


    jackboy wrote: »
    That is fine. The thing that annoys me is that nearly all the criticism of Ryan and Killeen’s opinions are just personal insults rather than an attempt to explain why they are wrong.

    Also, they are clearly strongly pro vaccine despite their detractors efforts to paint them as otherwise.

    McConkey has crossed the line or pretty close to it on vaccines a few times, in that he is risking damaging public confidence in the rollout. He took a stance that there wouldn't be a vaccine anytime soon last year and is now taking the most pessimistic view possible of them every time he is asked. The Matt Cooper interview during the week really springs to mind. The public need to have some belief that there is a point in taking a vaccine if the rollout is to be successful. As a proclaimed expert on the topic he is doing more harm than good at the moment.

    Killeen is also taking a very pessimistic view on vaccines but isn't as extreme as McConkey, I don't think he has crossed the line in damaging the public confidence in the same way Sam has. Ryan is a very sensible voice, he states his reasoning clearly and I think he has a far more balanced take on vaccination than his two colleagues. Even if one disagrees with him, he is clearly not an unreasonable voice the same way McConkey is.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    jackboy wrote: »
    That is fine. The thing that annoys me is that nearly all the criticism of Ryan and Killeen’s opinions are just personal insults rather than an attempt to explain why they are wrong.

    Also, they are clearly strongly pro vaccine despite their detractors efforts to paint them as otherwise.

    Actually the science and the real data indicates the vaccines are working including on the Irish dominant strain.

    It is also the case that the vaccines can be tweaked and administered as boosters if variants dictate.

    The issue many people have now with the ZC “scientists” is that they are undermining the efficacy of vaccines to promote their primary aim. That is the part that has a lot in the scientific community annoyed.

    That is why real heavy weights like Lambert and O’Neill are being super positive on vaccines and not promoting the narrative around travel.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,054 ✭✭✭political analyst


    My prediction:

    All adults with serious underlying health problems and everyone over 70 who wants the vaccine will be fully vaccinated by the beginning of June.

    By the end of June, everyone over 65 will be fully vaccinated by the end of June.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 247 ✭✭User142


    snotboogie wrote: »
    McConkey has crossed the line or pretty close to it on vaccines a few times, in that he is risking damaging public confidence in the rollout. He took a stance that there wouldn't be a vaccine anytime soon last year and is now taking the most pessimistic view possible of them every time he is asked. The Matt Cooper interview during the week really springs to mind. The public need to have some belief that there is a point in taking a vaccine if the rollout is to be successful. As a proclaimed expert on the topic he is doing more harm than good at the moment.

    Killeen is also taking a very pessimistic view on vaccines but isn't as extreme as McConkey, I don't think he has crossed the line in damaging the public confidence in the same way Sam has. Ryan is a very sensible voice, he states his reasoning clearly and I think he has a far more balanced take on vaccination than his two colleagues. Even if one disagrees with him, he is clearly not an unreasonable voice the same way McConkey is.


    Ryan went on PT after the extension of level 5 to describe the situation with the variants is a new pandemic. This is not reasonable.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭CruelSummer


    jackboy wrote: »
    What do you mean by ‘not as real’. It’s either real or not.

    Ok Jackboy, don’t have time for the word games.
    The threat from these variants isn't as big as it’s being made out to be. It’s all on the vaccine thread if you care to look.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,054 ✭✭✭political analyst


    If two people are talking to each other outside in cold or wet weather and they're not wearing masks and they're only 1 metre apart, the very low temperature or the rain will make particles coming from one person's mouth or nose less likely to reach the other person, right? I'm just going by what Dr Hilary Jones said on Good Morning Britain last year in the context of the British government's campaign to recruit for the picking of fruit on large farms.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,072 ✭✭✭jackboy


    Ok Jackboy, don’t have time for the word games.
    The threat from these variants is as big as it’s being made out to be. It’s all on the vaccine thread if you care to look.

    The threat from the variants is real. Will that come to pass or not, we do not know. The probability of a variant emerging that the current vaccines are significantly less effective against is also not known. So, we do not know how big or small the threat it. That is why a zero Covid approach still cannot be ruled out as a sensible approach. Maybe at the end of the year we may be in a better position to judge that.


  • Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    jackboy wrote: »
    That is fine. The thing that annoys me is that nearly all the criticism of Ryan and Killeen’s opinions are just personal insults rather than an attempt to explain why they are wrong.

    Also, they are clearly strongly pro vaccine despite their detractors efforts to paint them as otherwise.

    They’re not. They have blood on their hands for damaging public confidence in the vaccine. My gran will not now take the vaccine after Staines and McConkey on Matt Cooper this week said that they would not work. No matter how much I try to refute what they said, she will not be having it

    These people need to understand that a certain cohort of society take what they say as gospel. They have an obligation to be careful in what they say, and they do not observe that obligation. The way that they present their views, which are not without merit (some of the time) spreads fear amongst our vulnerable and will compromise out way out of this

    They are reckless with their words


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,355 ✭✭✭CalamariFritti


    Cork2021 wrote: »
    And welcome to the Zero Covid Nutters alliance! Has the thread been infiltrated by ISAG pot heads......

    Absolute nonsense being spouted here this morning!

    Zero covid isn’t reality, we are not New Zealand!! Time to move on from that debate to be honest!
    It should’ve happened along side NI last year. Far too late for that strategy now!

    Exactly that.

    Once the initial panic had settled a little last year, say early summer, that was the time for decision to be made. There were two realistic choices as in choices that would have had proper logic behind them.

    a) Go Sweden
    b) Go ZeroCovid

    Either choice would have required some hard decision so we and the majority of the western nations decided thats way too scary so we better muddle through the way we had started and pray for medication/vaccines/something. Population was on-board enough, least risk to get blamed for anything if you're in government or health and sure everyone else does so if, it ever turned out to be a kack choice we can all hide behind the group think.

    Going ZeroCvid now makes no sense at all.

    We 'invested' a whole year and a lot of resources and money into the kick-the-can approach and the vaccine projects and thank fk its coming good and we're nearly there now.

    So now that we can see the finish line we're going to abandon all that and go for an approach instead that isn't even working out for the two most separated and isolated island nations?

    Seriously...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,072 ✭✭✭jackboy


    They’re not. They have blood on their hands for damaging public confidence in the vaccine. My gran will not now take the vaccine after Staines and McConkey on Matt Cooper this week said that they would not work. No matter how much I try to refute what they said, she will not be having it

    These people need to understand that a certain cohort of society take what they say as gospel. They have an obligation to be careful in what they say, and they do not observe that obligation. The way that they present their views, which are not without merit (some of the time) spreads fear amongst our vulnerable and will compromise out way out of this

    They are reckless with their words

    You are completely misrepresenting their opinions.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 353 ✭✭IQO




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