2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

DataDude · 26-02-2021 07:45PM

Cyrus wrote: »

Glenageary house is nice, it backs onto that little industrial estate on albert road which may or may not bother you. also albert road is pretty busy not sure if that would bother you or not?

It is a great location though, proximite to the dart and to glasthule.

as to costs of renovating, i think 450k all in would get you the extra 75 sq/m and a decent level of finish overall on the whole property and you would have a fine house then, but youd need all of it, prices of renovations are scarey at the moment.

Ask some people getting it done if you can, to get an idea, you will also pay more because of where the house is, its not right but it does happen.

Thanks for responses. We just went up to have a look around and was very impressed with the house and area was lovely. Road definitely busier than we expected but don't think we'd use the cars a whole lot if we were there, so manageable.

We were concerned about the industrial estate for sure and it's bigger in person than it looked on the map. If we were to progress I'd be trying to find out whether it's singularly owned meaning a bigger chance of a Jonny Ronan type buying it out and going for a big apartment block or something (I'd have to join the NIMBY crowd!). Suspect the already busy road would be a major barrier to a new high density development though.

I have been in touch with a few people who've done renovations today. Mostly bigger jobs in bigger houses in very expensive areas and the costs were indeed eye watering. €450k seemed a reasonable scaled down estimate of their experience. Question I'd naturally ask is at the end of it, do you have a house worth €1.25m? I suspect not, but at least it'd be how you imagined it..

Cyrus wrote: »

for the same all in cost here are a few other options:

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/9-ard-na-greine-eaton-brae-off-orwell-road-rathgar-dublin-6/4346079

looks like its single storey so it will feel bigger than the nominal size.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/52-ulverton-road-dalkey-co-dublin-a96-x243/4440891

this would need work but you would have a fine place at the end of it.

new build option in glenageary more for reference, i think these are 4 storey and gardens appear non existent unfortunately

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/st-paul-s-square-adelaide-road-glenageary-dublin/4407651

Rathgar has just never really appealed to me personally, so wouldn't be willing to pay the premium to live there. Those one's in Ard na Greine started off at about €1.4m over a year ago and have been tumbling down for the last year. Must be seriously struggling to sell!

The St.Pauls ones are really nice inside but not a fan at all of the exterior. 4 story and no garden also means not much of a family home in my opinion.

Ulverton could be the "dream home" but at €1.3m prior to the few hundred thousand it would need to fix it up - a bridge too far sadly!

Cyrus · 26-02-2021 08:00PM

DataDude wrote: »

Thanks for responses. We just went up to have a look around and was very impressed with the house and area was lovely. Road definitely busier than we expected but don't think we'd use the cars a whole lot if we were there, so manageable.

We were concerned about the industrial estate for sure and it's bigger in person than it looked on the map. If we were to progress I'd be trying to find out whether it's singularly owned meaning a bigger chance of a Jonny Ronan type buying it out and going for a big apartment block or something (I'd have to join the NIMBY crowd!). Suspect the already busy road would be a major barrier to a new high density development though.

I have been in touch with a few people who've done renovations today. Mostly bigger jobs in bigger houses in very expensive areas and the costs were indeed eye watering. €450k seemed a reasonable scaled down estimate of their experience. Question I'd naturally ask is at the end of it, do you have a house worth €1.25m? I suspect not, but at least it'd be how you imagined it..

Rathgar has just never really appealed to me personally, so wouldn't be willing to pay the premium to live there. Those one's in Ard na Greine started off at about €1.4m over a year ago and have been tumbling down for the last year. Must be seriously struggling to sell!

The St.Pauls ones are really nice inside but not a fan at all of the exterior. 4 story and no garden also means not much of a family home in my opinion.

Ulverton could be the "dream home" but at €1.3m prior to the few hundred thousand it would need to fix it up - a bridge too far sadly!

To be honest I think if you have a detached renovated 200 sqm house on Albert road with a b3 ber it should be worth north of 1.25m.

MacronvFrugals · 26-02-2021 08:04PM

<SNIP>

Cyrus · 26-02-2021 08:18PM

schmittel wrote: »

Well, the assumption that you had not lived in London, was based on a previous post of yours, and was not that far off the mark:

Now you say you have actually lived in London I am happy to say I was wrong in this assumption, and shall move on.

Yes I did in my 20s , my current company has an office there and I have been offered a role both in London and Singapore in the last few years both places I lived when I was younger but not as appealing with small kids and the respective cost of maintaining the same lifestyle that I have here in either of those locations . Having lived in London I am aware of what a house in the areas I’d be interested in living in would cost.

Villa05 · 26-02-2021 09:06PM

schmittel wrote:

Does fear of missing out sound familiar?!

Missing out sounds a little unfair, the vast majority buy a home not an investment. The fear is of being priced out

Missing out plays in to the government's mantra that we were all at it after the last crash.
This is incorrect, some were but it was all driven by gov policy

decreds · 26-02-2021 09:58PM

combat14 wrote: »

rents are eye watering too.. alot of young people will be forced to leave here once pandemic is over

Huge brain drain on the way.

PropQueries · 26-02-2021 10:02PM

I guess now we have a bit of an insight into why DCC believes paying €400k+ for each of their social housing units is a steal.

According to the Irish Independent: “€400k budget to replace light at top of the Spire branded ‘absolutely startling’ by Dublin councillor.”

“Cllr Keith Connolly said he was amazed when he saw the figure, questioning how changing a light at the top of the Spire could cost the same as the price of a house in Dublin”.

Link to Irish Independent article here: https://independent.ie/news/400k-budget-to-replace-light-at-top-of-the-spire-branded-absolutely-startling-by-dublin-councillor-40136879.html

Pelezico · 26-02-2021 10:05PM

PropQueries wrote: »

I guess now we have a bit of an insight into why DCC believes paying €400k+ for each of their social housing units is a steal.

According to the Irish Times: “€400k budget to replace light at top of the Spire branded ‘absolutely startling’ by Dublin councillor.”

“Cllr Keith Connolly said he was amazed when he saw the figure, questioning how changing a light at the top of the Spire could cost the same as the price of a house in Dublin”.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://independent.ie/news/400k-budget-to-replace-light-at-top-of-the-spire-branded-absolutely-startling-by-dublin-councillor-40136879.html

Maintain the rage PropQueries. Good to see you post again.

The Irish property market is insane. Wait for the tax increases and the inevitable squeeze on multinationals with lower tax receipts.

Down down down, property will go.

Changing a light costs as much as a house. Both transactions are insane.

Most people in Dublin don't have a bob to spend. Some have lots and there are only a few houses on market being chased by those few with money.

hometruths · 26-02-2021 10:12PM

DataDude wrote: »

Thanks for responses. We just went up to have a look around and was very impressed with the house and area was lovely. Road definitely busier than we expected but don't think we'd use the cars a whole lot if we were there, so manageable.

We were concerned about the industrial estate for sure and it's bigger in person than it looked on the map. If we were to progress I'd be trying to find out whether it's singularly owned meaning a bigger chance of a Jonny Ronan type buying it out and going for a big apartment block or something (I'd have to join the NIMBY crowd!). Suspect the already busy road would be a major barrier to a new high density development though.

I have been in touch with a few people who've done renovations today. Mostly bigger jobs in bigger houses in very expensive areas and the costs were indeed eye watering. €450k seemed a reasonable scaled down estimate of their experience. Question I'd naturally ask is at the end of it, do you have a house worth €1.25m? I suspect not, but at least it'd be how you imagined it..

Rathgar has just never really appealed to me personally, so wouldn't be willing to pay the premium to live there. Those one's in Ard na Greine started off at about €1.4m over a year ago and have been tumbling down for the last year. Must be seriously struggling to sell!

The St.Pauls ones are really nice inside but not a fan at all of the exterior. 4 story and no garden also means not much of a family home in my opinion.

Ulverton could be the "dream home" but at €1.3m prior to the few hundred thousand it would need to fix it up - a bridge too far sadly!

If I was in your position - age and earnings - I'd be very tempted to stretch the budget and go for Ulverton if it is the dream home. Location is fantastic, and by the sounds of things you have friends and family in the area which will be worth a lot over the lifetime of the home.

My thinking would be to do it the old fashioned way and fix it up over a few years. It doesn't exactly look like a wreck as is, so perfectly habitable for now. Would you really need to spend a few hundred thousand?

Bit of an inconvenience to stretch out the renovations, but you'd forget about it fairly quick when you have the convenience of walking up the road to drop the little ones off with Granny on your way to the pub! (assuming Granny lives in Dalkey, but I may be wrong there!)

Your earnings are such that fixing it up bit by bit is not the normal saving up for a new boiler type of drama. You could blast a bit every year. Drop 50k on kitchens and bathrooms one year, redo all the windows the next etc.

All of the above really only applies if you have family in Dalkey, (which I may have jumped to conclusions on) - once you have kids etc, the value of having family close by is immense (assuming you get on with them!). There are other reasons I'd be tempted, but that is the main one.

combat14 · 26-02-2021 10:12PM

Gold prices book lowest close since June and steepest monthly drop in four years

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/gold-prices-head-for-4th-straight-drop-as-dollar-gains-add-to-bullions-woes-11614348809

looks like higher inflation is on the way, higher interest rates and increased cost for govt and tax payer to borrow money and pay our massive ballooning national debt...

fun times ahead ...

Pelezico · 26-02-2021 10:17PM

combat14 wrote: »

Gold prices book lowest close since June and steepest monthly drop in four years

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/gold-prices-head-for-4th-straight-drop-as-dollar-gains-add-to-bullions-woes-11614348809

looks like higher inflation is on the way, higher interest rates and increased cost for govt and tax payer to borrow money and pay our massive ballooning national debt...

fun times ahead ...

Can you imagine the implications of higher interest rates on his prices? They would tank savagely.

Yurt2 · 26-02-2021 10:36PM

combat14 wrote: »

Gold prices book lowest close since June and steepest monthly drop in four years

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/gold-prices-head-for-4th-straight-drop-as-dollar-gains-add-to-bullions-woes-11614348809

looks like higher inflation is on the way, higher interest rates and increased cost for govt and tax payer to borrow money and pay our massive ballooning national debt...

fun times ahead ...

Interest rates will stay on the floor for the next half-decade or more.

The rulebook is out the window with government borrowing as well. The problem will be growth and how to get it. We'll be begging for inflation in the real economy (and not the asset economy).

Pelezico · 26-02-2021 10:42PM

Yurt! wrote: »

Interest rates will stay on the floor for the next half-decade or more.

The rulebook is out the window with government borrowing as well. The problem will be growth and how to get it. We'll be begging for inflation in the real economy (and not the asset economy).

The markets are saying different. Commodities have increased and all sorts of bottlenecks are happening.

Shipping container rates, oil, lumber, copper, silver among other things have rocketed. There will be inflation and it will cause serious erosion in living standards.

Hubertj · 26-02-2021 10:47PM

schmittel wrote: »

If I was in your position - age and earnings - I'd be very tempted to stretch the budget and go for Ulverton if it is the dream home. Location is fantastic, and by the sounds of things you have friends and family in the area which will be worth a lot over the lifetime of the home.

My thinking would be to do it the old fashioned way and fix it up over a few years. It doesn't exactly look like a wreck as is, so perfectly habitable for now. Would you really need to spend a few hundred thousand?

Bit of an inconvenience to stretch out the renovations, but you'd forget about it fairly quick when you have the convenience of walking up the road to drop the little ones off with Granny on your way to the pub! (assuming Granny lives in Dalkey, but I may be wrong there!)

Your earnings are such that fixing it up bit by bit is not the normal saving up for a new boiler type of drama. You could blast a bit every year. Drop 50k on kitchens and bathrooms one year, redo all the windows the next etc.

All of the above really only applies if you have family in Dalkey, (which I may have jumped to conclusions on) - once you have kids etc, the value of having family close by is immense (assuming you get on with them!). There are other reasons I'd be tempted, but that is the main one.

I would love a Georgian or Victorian house. Lived in an apartment on Pembroke road for a few years. High ceilings etc. However, single glazing makes it difficult to heat. I’m open to correction but if it’s a listed building not sure you can double glaze. Then there is bollo* about the type of slate to use on roof.
Having said that they have a lot of character, Aga in kitchen would be great....

Yurt2 · 26-02-2021 10:49PM

Pelezico wrote: »

The markets are saying different. Commodities have increased and all sorts of bottlenecks are happening.

Shipping container rates, oil, lumber, copper, silver among other things have rocketed. There will be inflation and it will cause serious erosion in living standards.

My read on the commodities super-cycle is it's cheap money desperately sticking to tier 1 commodities and short term yields, because it's certainly not based on industrial on consumer demand. Remember the funny business that went on with copper in the early part of the last decade, with off-market copper hoarding etc.

hometruths · 26-02-2021 10:49PM

Pelezico wrote: »

The markets are saying different. Commodities have increased and all sorts of bottlenecks are happening.

Shipping container rates, oil, lumber, copper, silver among other things have rocketed. There will be inflation and it will cause serious erosion in living standards.

Agreed. We're told there is no inflation because it is not showing up in the CPI yet, but it is sure as hell showing up everywhere else.

hometruths · 26-02-2021 10:55PM

Hubertj wrote: »

I would love a Georgian or Victorian house. Lived in an apartment on Pembroke road for a few years. High ceilings etc. However, single glazing makes it difficult to heat. I’m open to correction but if it’s a listed building not sure you can double glaze. Then there is bollo* about the type of slate to use on roof.
Having said that they have a lot of character, Aga in kitchen would be great....

I'd happily live in a listed building and put on another jumper!

PropQueries · 26-02-2021 11:07PM

schmittel wrote: »

Agreed. We're told there is no inflation because it is not showing up in the CPI yet, but it is sure as hell showing up everywhere else.

Even the Governor of the Irish Central Bank said back in September that “price inflation experienced by households may be higher than what is officially measured.”

What was interesting was that he also said that “the Central Bank last looked at the methods used in measuring inflation back in 2003 and that it intended to re-examine them in the light of Covid.”

Link to article on RTÉ here: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0914/1165123-central-bank-on-inflation/

DataDude · 26-02-2021 11:12PM

schmittel wrote: »

If I was in your position - age and earnings - I'd be very tempted to stretch the budget and go for Ulverton if it is the dream home. Location is fantastic, and by the sounds of things you have friends and family in the area which will be worth a lot over the lifetime of the home.

My thinking would be to do it the old fashioned way and fix it up over a few years. It doesn't exactly look like a wreck as is, so perfectly habitable for now. Would you really need to spend a few hundred thousand?

Bit of an inconvenience to stretch out the renovations, but you'd forget about it fairly quick when you have the convenience of walking up the road to drop the little ones off with Granny on your way to the pub! (assuming Granny lives in Dalkey, but I may be wrong there!)

Your earnings are such that fixing it up bit by bit is not the normal saving up for a new boiler type of drama. You could blast a bit every year. Drop 50k on kitchens and bathrooms one year, redo all the windows the next etc.

All of the above really only applies if you have family in Dalkey, (which I may have jumped to conclusions on) - once you have kids etc, the value of having family close by is immense (assuming you get on with them!). There are other reasons I'd be tempted, but that is the main one.

Funnily enough we don’t actually have family in Dalkey! I’ve just built a real love for the place over the last few years so could easily see how you’d have inferred that from my posts!
Both our families are actually Wicklow based. Too far south for us to consider joining them, but Greystones would be close and is a real possibility now with WFH, hence us looking there increasingly. SCD still very much in the picture too though.

With regards to your comment re. pushing the boat out. It’s something I almost talk myself into every now and then, usually after a bottle of wine. It is indeed tempting, but ultimately don’t wanna be ‘that guy who was reckless and borrowed crazily right in the middle of a pandemic - what an idiot’ akin the accusations that are often thrown (perhaps fairly) at those who got in too deep during the Celtic Tiger.

Over the next few years we’ve got kids (hopefully), and a move to single income household. On top of that who knows: interest rate rises, tax increases, hard left government? I’d be really feeling the draughts passing through that house on Ulverton Road if all of that came to pass. Think we’ll try to remain somewhat conservative, and always time to move to an Ulverton type in the future if the cards keep falling in our favour!

hometruths · 26-02-2021 11:20PM

DataDude wrote: »

Funnily enough we don’t actually have family in Dalkey! I’ve just built a real love for the place over the last few years so could easily see how you’d have inferred that from my posts!
Both our families are actually Wicklow based. Too far south for us to consider joining them, but Greystones would be close and is a real possibility now with WFH, hence us looking there increasingly. SCD still very much in the picture too though.

With regards to your comment re. pushing the boat out. It’s something I almost talk myself into every now and then, usually after a bottle of wine. It is indeed tempting, but ultimately don’t wanna be ‘that guy who was reckless and borrowed crazily right in the middle of a pandemic - what an idiot’ akin the accusations that are often thrown (perhaps fairly) at those who got in too deep during the Celtic Tiger.

Ok that changes things! My thinking would be it is worth the stretch for local family reasons, but if that's not the case, sounds like you're being very wise.

DataDude wrote: »

Over the next few years we’ve got kids (hopefully), and a move to single income household. On top of that who knows: interest rate rises, tax increases, hard left government? I’d be really feeling the draughts passing through that house on Ulverton Road if all of that came to pass. Think we’ll try to remain somewhat conservative, and always time to move to an Ulverton type in the future if the cards keep falling in our favour!

Sounds a lot like you're (wisely) considering potential future tax/legislation changes and implications as part of the decision making criteria...

Hubertj · 26-02-2021 11:24PM

schmittel wrote: »

I'd happily live in a listed building and put on another jumper!

Oh I did! Couldn’t use the fireplace either as chimney breasts were cracked....

Cyrus · 26-02-2021 11:27PM

schmittel wrote: »

Sounds a lot like you're (wisely) considering potential future tax/legislation changes and implications as part of the decision making criteria...

Christ

Minor considerations compared to becoming a single income family and adding children to the mix

And stop pretending that you were referring to income taxes.

Yurt2 · 26-02-2021 11:28PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Even the Governor of the Irish Central Bank said back in September that “price inflation experienced by households may be higher than what is officially measured.”

What was interesting was that he also said that “the Central Bank last looked at the methods used in measuring inflation back in 2003 and that it intended to re-examine them in the light of Covid.”

Link to article on RTÉ here: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0914/1165123-central-bank-on-inflation/

To me, it's shocking that price inflation hasn't been measured correctly. There are all sorts of implications for a miscollection and misreporting of such an important data point. At least the Governor has conceded they need to do better.

Pelezico · 26-02-2021 11:32PM

Cyrus wrote: »

Christ

Minor considerations compared to becoming a single income family and adding children to the mix

And stop pretending that you were referring to income taxes.

I dont believe that. You spend most of your time on boards. Anyone with young family would be too busy to be as prolific a contributor a yourself.

Cant say I blame you either for the subterfuge. We all disguise our identities on forums such as this.

But the prolific posting in your case is a giveaway.

hometruths · 26-02-2021 11:33PM

Cyrus wrote: »

Christ

Minor considerations compared to becoming a single income family and adding children to the mix

And stop pretending that you were referring to income taxes.

I'm not pretending anything. Any chance you could enlighten me by spelling out exactly what I was referring to?

Cyrus · 26-02-2021 11:39PM

DataDude wrote: »

Funnily enough we don’t actually have family in Dalkey! I’ve just built a real love for the place over the last few years so could easily see how you’d have inferred that from my posts!
Both our families are actually Wicklow based. Too far south for us to consider joining them, but Greystones would be close and is a real possibility now with WFH, hence us looking there increasingly. SCD still very much in the picture too though.

With regards to your comment re. pushing the boat out. It’s something I almost talk myself into every now and then, usually after a bottle of wine. It is indeed tempting, but ultimately don’t wanna be ‘that guy who was reckless and borrowed crazily right in the middle of a pandemic - what an idiot’ akin the accusations that are often thrown (perhaps fairly) at those who got in too deep during the Celtic Tiger.

Over the next few years we’ve got kids (hopefully), and a move to single income household. On top of that who knows: interest rate rises, tax increases, hard left government? I’d be really feeling the draughts passing through that house on Ulverton Road if all of that came to pass. Think we’ll try to remain somewhat conservative, and always time to move to an Ulverton type in the future if the cards keep falling in our favour!

The one thing I’ll say is if you have an affinity already with dalkey you won’t regret moving there , certain places are overrated but not glasthule or dalkey and likewise for parts of glenageary Killiney and dun laoghaire .

This house caught my eye a while back, and no work to do, it sold quickly .

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/44-york-road-dun-laoghaire-co-dublin-a96p928/4472776

Cyrus · 26-02-2021 11:44PM

Pelezico wrote: »

I dont believe that. You spend most of your time on boards. Anyone with young family would be too busy to be as prolific a contributor a yourself.

Cant say I blame you either for the subterfuge. We all disguise our identities on forums such as this.

But the prolific posting in your case is a giveaway.

Nice try but I won’t bite only to point out the statistical inaccuracy of your post which won’t surprise anyone you aren’t great with numbers .

You are a more prolific poster than me

And I never mentioned my family you are the one intent on boring every one with tales of your son.

Cyrus · 26-02-2021 11:48PM

schmittel wrote: »

There are hundreds of thousands of residential properties that are not "part of the current supply for one reason or another".

But they do exist. At some stage they will become part of the current supply for one reason or another.

And when that happens, you will have your oversupply.

This is what you said , you then said they would become available due to changes in the legislative and legal framework at some undefined point in the future, I remember you got annoyed when it was pointed out that that point was hardly going to be in 2021.

What you meant was obviously that there would be a vacant property tax to push people to sell . But you’ll deny that so I’m really not sure why I have bothered.

Pelezico · 26-02-2021 11:52PM

Cyrus wrote: »

Nice try but I won’t bite only to point out the statistical inaccuracy of your post which won’t surprise anyone you aren’t great with numbers .

You are a more prolific poster than me

And I never mentioned my family you are the one intent on boring every one with tales of your son.

Hmm. I have 600 posts and you have 14000 posts. I am impressed with your dedication.

Anyway, let's stay on topic and talk about property.

hometruths · 26-02-2021 11:59PM

Cyrus wrote: »

This is what you said , you then said they would become available due to changes in the legislative and legal framework at some undefined point in the future, I remember you got annoyed when it was pointed out that that point was hardly going to be in 2021.

What you meant was obviously that there would be a vacant property tax to push people to sell . But you’ll deny that so I’m really not sure why I have bothered.

:rolleyes: I notice you didn't quote the post where I mentioned tax.

schmittel wrote: »

They are not on the market for sale or rent at moment principally because of the current tax and legislative framework.

One reason or another covers a myriad of reasons all of which are because of "the current tax and legislative framework" which includes income tax.

Eg there are undoubtedly properties that are not on the market for rent because people think that post income tax return is not worth it.

This is actually the most relevant post in context of the exchange between you and I:

schmittel wrote: »

A lot of (most I suspect) buyers and sellers in 2021 will consider potential future tax/legislation changes and implications as part of the decision making criteria.

You really think, even with my fascination for the vacancies, that I meant most buyers and sellers consider whether or not we'll have a vacant property tax in the future?!

I'm not sure why you bothered either. Say you were wrong and move on maybe?

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1